2018 MLB Draft

[chibears55]

Cubs have 5 picks in top 98..

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[Ari Bear]

I didn't realize that. Thanks for posting!

 

[beckdawg]

According to the fangraphs guys they are hearing the cubs are looking at Jackson Kowar(RHP Florida), and Steele Walker(LH probably CF Oklahoma). I've also read that they intend to go after some guys with upside. So, wouldn't surprise me to see whoever they go after with the first pick to potentially be a below slot deal. The draft is really heavy on prep arms from like 20-50 and it's pretty deep because of that. But the college crop is kinda meh it seems.

Walker can hit(.327/.406/.517 over 3 years) but doesn't excite me that much because he's probably a LF only guy. Kowar is a bit more interesting. MLB.com has him with a 65 fastball, a 60 change and a 50 curve. He's got good size(6'5 180). Only issue is he might not be there at 24. If neither of those two guys are the pick I'm not entirely sure who it'll be. Only 13 of the top 30 prospects are hitters. And of the 17 remaining pitchers, 10 are prep guys and the other 7 college guys are mostly slated in the top 15. Mize is probably the #1 pick. They had Singer #5, McClanahan #9, Gilbert #17 and Rolison #26.

If none of those college arms is available, there's probably not a ton of college bats. And I doubt they'd go with a HS arm unless it was real value. So, if that happens, I guess what they'd likely do is either draft a HS bat they like or look for a underslot deal for a college bat they like so they can use the money they save to potentially overpay someone who slips to their 2nd round pick because of signability issues.

 

[DanTown]

I just pray the Cubs don't draft Luke Heimlich so I don't have to deal with that.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm increasingly thinking they are going to draft bat heavier than usual. There's a lot of interesting arms in the organization right now and they are the front runners on 2 16 year old IFA starters who are well regarded. I'm not going to name guys I'm looking at right now because its sort of pointless. These guys move all around at this point especially when you factor in the cubs pick relatively late. That being said, the guys i'm keeping an eye on are prep bats. None of the college hitters really jump out to me.

 

[chibears55]

I'm increasingly thinking they are going to draft bat heavier than usual. There's a lot of interesting arms in the organization right now and they are the front runners on 2 16 year old IFA starters who are well regarded. I'm not going to name guys I'm looking at right now because its sort of pointless. These guys move all around at this point especially when you factor in the cubs pick relatively late. That being said, the guys i'm keeping an eye on are prep bats. None of the college hitters really jump out to me.

I agree they'll look at bats early and often.

Right now in their system
14 of their top 20 prospects are pitchers

21 of their top 30 prospects are pitchers

So yea, their pretty heavy on pitching with their top players

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[chibears55]

I really hope their looking at kids who aren't dead pull hitters...

Tired of seeing guys constantly hitting into shifts

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[beckdawg]

I really hope their looking at kids who aren't dead pull hitters...

Tired of seeing guys constantly hitting into shifts

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You realize that's like 95% of all players right? They don't make many people who use all fields anymore. It's not just them ignoring them. You take the players who are produced at the lower levels.

 

[chibears55]

You realize that's like 95% of all players right? They don't make many people who use all fields anymore. It's not just them ignoring them. You take the players who are produced at the lower levels.

That pretty high..
No way 95% of MLB hitters are hitting into shifts every AB



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[beckdawg]

That pretty high..
No way 95% of MLB hitters are hitting into shifts every AB



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Well as an example here, there's only 11 players out of 162 qualified hitters in MLB this year who have an oppo% > 33%. If you lower that to 30% there's 27 guys. Frankly the 95% was a SWAG but it's not far off if you use that a the barometer for guys hitting to all fields. Those two marks put the number between 83-94%. of hitters who are either pull and or center heavy.

 

[beckdawg]

Another way to look at it is how many people are pull heavy. 90 of the 162 are 40%+ pull hitters. That's 56%. Regardless, my point here is that is the type of hitters who are coming out of HS/College more often than not. That's not to say EVERY player is that way but sometimes you have to take the good with the bad. Would you rather a guy who is pull heavy with good tools or someone who hits to all fields but is probably a bench bat at best in terms of tools?

 

[chibears55]

Well as an example here, there's only 11 players out of 162 qualified hitters in MLB this year who have an oppo% > 33%. If you lower that to 30% there's 27 guys. Frankly the 95% was a SWAG but it's not far off if you use that a the barometer for guys hitting to all fields. Those two marks put the number between 83-94%. of hitters who are either pull and or center heavy.

Crazy how much this game has changed...

Do you know how many MLB hitters have shifts on them every AB like Rizzo Bryant Schwarber etc.

That what is like to avoid having more of

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[beckdawg]

Crazy how much this game has changed...

Do you know how many MLB hitters have shifts on them every AB like Rizzo Bryant Schwarber etc.

That what is like to avoid having more of

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I'd have to think about that. I think statcast may have that data. But i'm not sure. I did read something though suggesting shifting wasn't even worth it. Basically the gist was that the hits you stop are being countered by the pitcher being uncomfortable pitching with the shift on which leads to more walks. It's also interesting that the cubs who have maddon and who was once one of the leaders in the industry at defensive shifts almost never shift now.

 

[chibears55]

I'd have to think about that. I think statcast may have that data. But i'm not sure. I did read something though suggesting shifting wasn't even worth it. Basically the gist was that the hits you stop are being countered by the pitcher being uncomfortable pitching with the shift on which leads to more walks. It's also interesting that the cubs who have maddon and who was once one of the leaders in the industry at defensive shifts almost never shift now.

Yea I noticed that...

I think I've only seen them do it a couple of times all year...

Rizzo keeps doing like he did today and has been lately, hitting balls to left and towards the middle more..
They'll stop shifting on him all the time..
I think he can go the other way, up middle with success if he wants too

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[beckdawg]

fangraphs put out their sortable draft board

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=1&pos=all&team=all&sort=0,a

 

[anotheridiot]

shit show with Chatwood and Darvish, no place for our current 10 starters to play everyday, man, please develop some damned pitching.

They showed a comparison between Machado and Harpers offensive numbers and they are really about even. Those are the guys fans are pining for, Harper would be a decade, lets develop not just flip pitching already.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I have a friend who follows Ole Miss baseball religiously and he said that the Cubs have had a scout at every start Ryan Tolison (LHP) has made this year. Now, I don't think that means a ton as I'm sure they've heavily scouted most of the college starters, but it is a name to keep an eye on. Sean Hjelle (RHP, KY) is another one I've heard buzz about.

 

[beckdawg]

I have a friend who follows Ole Miss baseball religiously and he said that the Cubs have had a scout at every start Ryan Tolison (LHP) has made this year. Now, I don't think that means a ton as I'm sure they've heavily scouted most of the college starters, but it is a name to keep an eye on. Sean Hjelle (RHP, KY) is another one I've heard buzz about.

See I'm not convinced they go college pitching. Honestly they have a TON of pitching right now it's just not all developed. AA is loaded and AAA has Alzolay, Tseng and Underwood who's rediscovered some stuff. A+ has Lange, Hudson and a couple of others. A has Lacy and Assad who've looked really strong. When you add in that they likely will sign at least 2 really good IFA pitchers i'm not sure they need to go with a pitcher in the first.

I would be really surprised if they go HS pitcher. I think they would prefer to go college bat but I'm not entirely convinced by the crop that will be around. I'm thinking you could see an upside play. Three names that come to mind are Brice Turang if he slips, Jordyn Adams and Anthony Seigler. They are all HS bats but Turang was at some points viewed as a potential #1 overall pick as a SS but fell due to him being scouted so long and him not dominating like you'd want a #1 pick to do. Adams is a pure upside guy who's an 80 runner and some what raw but very interesting CF prospect. Seigler is an ambidextrous catcher.

 

[anotheridiot]

See I'm not convinced they go college pitching. Honestly they have a TON of pitching right now it's just not all developed. AA is loaded and AAA has Alzolay, Tseng and Underwood who's rediscovered some stuff. A+ has Lange, Hudson and a couple of others. A has Lacy and Assad who've looked really strong. When you add in that they likely will sign at least 2 really good IFA pitchers i'm not sure they need to go with a pitcher in the first.

I would be really surprised if they go HS pitcher. I think they would prefer to go college bat but I'm not entirely convinced by the crop that will be around. I'm thinking you could see an upside play. Three names that come to mind are Brice Turang if he slips, Jordyn Adams and Anthony Seigler. They are all HS bats but Turang was at some points viewed as a potential #1 overall pick as a SS but fell due to him being scouted so long and him not dominating like you'd want a #1 pick to do. Adams is a pure upside guy who's an 80 runner and some what raw but very interesting CF prospect. Seigler is an ambidextrous catcher.

I am not sure Tseng will ever pitch here again while Joe is managing and Alzolay has not gotten to the fifth in 5 straight starts, now has some lat problems. They will probably turn Underwood into a Carl Edwards reliever. my bet is at least 1 if not 2 will be moved this deadline.

 

[beckdawg]

I am not sure Tseng will ever pitch here again while Joe is managing and Alzolay has not gotten to the fifth in 5 straight starts, now has some lat problems. They will probably turn Underwood into a Carl Edwards reliever. my bet is at least 1 if not 2 will be moved this deadline.

Sure Tseng will. At worst he's AAA depth for injury. A more realistic view is he sits awhile and has a shot at the #5 spot in a year or two. Alzolay is fine. He's been dominant at times and not great at others. But that's what happens when pitchers step up a level. Not all of them are immediately dominant. Underwood has no reason to go to the bullpen unless it's just a way to get his arm to chicago.

As for trading any/all of them, I mean maybe but what are they trading for? The bullpen has been the best part of the team. And I would argue you'd rather give Alzolay/Underwood time there if you have to have another bullpen arm than trade them. I don't see how you move a starter. Obviously I get the idea of replacing Chatwood but he's got 2.5 years left. And as for the line up I suppose there's the whole Machado go big or go home idea but other than that adding minor pieces doesn't make sense.