2018 MLB Draft

[beckdawg]

1:14
A Boy Named Yu: Best guess for Cubs’ first pick?

1:15
Kiley McDaniel: They had their top two decision makers at the Denaburg vs. Casas playoff game and Denaburg was pretty good.

From fangraphs chat. Denaburg would be some what interesting as he sorta fits a recent mold of them liking curve ball guys.

 

[anotheridiot]

Sure Tseng will. At worst he's AAA depth for injury. A more realistic view is he sits awhile and has a shot at the #5 spot in a year or two. Alzolay is fine. He's been dominant at times and not great at others. But that's what happens when pitchers step up a level. Not all of them are immediately dominant. Underwood has no reason to go to the bullpen unless it's just a way to get his arm to chicago.

As for trading any/all of them, I mean maybe but what are they trading for? The bullpen has been the best part of the team. And I would argue you'd rather give Alzolay/Underwood time there if you have to have another bullpen arm than trade them. I don't see how you move a starter. Obviously I get the idea of replacing Chatwood but he's got 2.5 years left. And as for the line up I suppose there's the whole Machado go big or go home idea but other than that adding minor pieces doesn't make sense.

You expect some kind of move is going to be made. Getting a shut down guy for the 8th inning to get to Morrow and back up Morrow is probably the move, if not swapping spots. Its just inevitable that something is going to get done. But the point is will any of these ever get a shot at #5, or is it always going to be the free agent proven name with Theo. This is the question. Will he ever want to develop his own ace?

 

[CSF77]

You expect some kind of move is going to be made. Getting a shut down guy for the 8th inning to get to Morrow and back up Morrow is probably the move, if not swapping spots. Its just inevitable that something is going to get done. But the point is will any of these ever get a shot at #5, or is it always going to be the free agent proven name with Theo. This is the question. Will he ever want to develop his own ace?

As far as talented arms in the system.. Maples has the best pure stuff. MLB has him at 75 on fastball, 65 slider/ curve 60. All are plus pitches. But 40 control. Which has netted a 18 BB/24 SO in 15.2 IP. He is killing himself by not being able to throw strikes. No one is really beating him 1 HR and 12 hits given up.

So as far as a hot shot he is that guy if he can ever get his stuff under control.

Alozay is another but he has a lat strain atm. He should be out for a week or 2. But with the rotation locked up and him being more of a 4-5 IP this year it makes sense to push him into BP duty.

That is why we are seeing run of the mill filler types coming up right now. Hancock, Mazz, Tseng, Farrell, Zast. Rosario may stick but he is another failed SP prospect that was pushed into the pen full time at AA. Pretty typical stuff.

Now Underwood IMO is the best trade chip that they have to pull back a pen arm. But I'm not convinced that they really need to at this point. The prime weakness that I have seen is honestly in Wilson and Duesing.

Duesing: 16.7% K 15.3% BB You can't put him in higher pressure situations.
Wilson 27.1% K 18.8% BB He is #2 to Chatwood there.

So basically if you are in a spot that you need a LOOGY you are screwed right now. Smyly we should be hearing more of as the summer heats up but this is a legit issue that is glaring right now.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You expect some kind of move is going to be made. Getting a shut down guy for the 8th inning to get to Morrow and back up Morrow is probably the move, if not swapping spots. Its just inevitable that something is going to get done. But the point is will any of these ever get a shot at #5, or is it always going to be the free agent proven name with Theo. This is the question. Will he ever want to develop his own ace?

With Edwards, Strop and Cishek why do you need an eighth inning guy from the outside? Assuming Edwards comes back healthy of course.

 

[beckdawg]

You expect some kind of move is going to be made. Getting a shut down guy for the 8th inning to get to Morrow and back up Morrow is probably the move, if not swapping spots. Its just inevitable that something is going to get done. But the point is will any of these ever get a shot at #5, or is it always going to be the free agent proven name with Theo. This is the question. Will he ever want to develop his own ace?

There's only like 8-10 "aces" in baseball at any given time. To suggest that anyone can just develop them is a bit of a stretch. You look at the mets right now who've dumped considerable resources into it and can't keep any of them on the field. Simply put it's a bad investment trying to find the next Kershaw. I believe their goal is and always has been to effectively find Derek Lowe's. That is to say work horse guys who are good enough to be mid rotation starters. You find enough of those guys some are going to surprise you like Hendricks has. And more to the point, if you can reliably fill your 3-5 rotation spots with cheap arms like a Tseng or Ryan Williams or Mills....etc. then you're able to go out and buy a Lester or a Darvish because the money you aren't spending on 3-4 starters allows you more flexibility. They specifically commented on this with regard to the quntiana trade in that they liked him but since he was so cheap with his contract they were able to sign darvish.

Regardless, it's way more cost effective to just go out and buy #1/2 starters. You don't have to deal with any of the hassle of developing the guys and by the time those guys hit FA you know what they are.

 

[beckdawg]

With Edwards, Strop and Cishek why do you need an eighth inning guy from the outside? Assuming Edwards comes back healthy of course.

I can see the concept of adding another high profile arm to the pen but as I've said else where why would you just put Alzolay in the pen in August? He's got 2 plus pitches and this is a way to work him into the MLB roster. Same could likely be said for Underwood who's probably pitching better right now. Both of those guys have good enough stuff to be decent BP arms and don't cost you anything.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There's only like 8-10 "aces" in baseball at any given time. To suggest that anyone can just develop them is a bit of a stretch. You look at the mets right now who've dumped considerable resources into it and can't keep any of them on the field. Simply put it's a bad investment trying to find the next Kershaw. I believe their goal is and always has been to effectively find Derek Lowe's. That is to say work horse guys who are good enough to be mid rotation starters. You find enough of those guys some are going to surprise you like Hendricks has. And more to the point, if you can reliably fill your 3-5 rotation spots with cheap arms like a Tseng or Ryan Williams or Mills....etc. then you're able to go out and buy a Lester or a Darvish because the money you aren't spending on 3-4 starters allows you more flexibility. They specifically commented on this with regard to the quntiana trade in that they liked him but since he was so cheap with his contract they were able to sign darvish.

Regardless, it's way more cost effective to just go out and buy #1/2 starters. You don't have to deal with any of the hassle of developing the guys and by the time those guys hit FA you know what they are.

I think you're high on the number of "aces' in the game, I'd say right now there are 4 maybe 5 including Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Kluber and maybe deGrom with Strasburg and Syndergaard being close. You're point is correct though. Better to develop a stockpile effective arms and make the goal a solid 1-5 rotation through a combo of minor leagues, trades and FA. I haven't always been on board with this, it's the one thing that I always sort of differed with Theo and company on, but I've come around. Look at what Atlanta is doing. they may not have an "ace" out of the likes of Foltynewicz, Newcomb, Wright, Gohara, Fried, Anderson and Allard but damned if they don't have a lot of good young arms that they can slot the best into the rotation and either trade the others or have them be valuable pen pieces.

 

[beckdawg]

I think you're high on the number of "aces' in the game, I'd say right now there are 4 maybe 5 including Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Kluber and maybe deGrom with Strasburg and Syndergaard being close. You're point is correct though. Better to develop a stockpile effective arms and make the goal a solid 1-5 rotation through a combo of minor leagues, trades and FA. I haven't always been on board with this, it's the one thing that I always sort of differed with Theo and company on, but I've come around. Look at what Atlanta is doing. they may not have an "ace" out of the likes of Foltynewicz, Newcomb, Wright, Gohara, Fried, Anderson and Allard but damned if they don't have a lot of good young arms that they can slot the best into the rotation and either trade the others or have them be valuable pen pieces.

I mean I was just throwing out a range for any given time not specifically *now*. As for Atlanta, I think they are interesting but I'm not sure they are a fair comparison as the other side of the coin. They've had a lot more high round picks than the cubs because they get competitive balance picks every year. That's why I mentioned the mets. And I'd still be wary of the Braves until those arms show over several years they can stay healthy.

 

[CSF77]

Pretty sure Lange will be the ace type that we have been waiting for. Stuff plus pedegree going into the draft. Right now he is on a tear and could get moved up to Tenn. Clifton is looking like he may have turned a corner and he should be next in line for Iowa opening a spot for Lange.

So I’m expecting some movement in the mid-terms after the focus goes from the draft and to promotions. Tseng honestly sucks right now and is making the team look piss poor on this starts. Hedges should end up cut also. I don’t see then holding roster spots for fringe talent players and both could be cut soon.

Had to guess: Clifton goes to Iowa as he has over a year in Tenn. Tseng gets bumped off to DFA. Hedges axed as he was fringe anyways.

Lange moves up to Tenn to close the year. I don’t see them rusihing other guys as they are pretty much where they should be right now. Lange is just that advanced and Clifton is due a promotion now.

 

[CSF77]

But getting to the draft in general. I just see them aiming for the best talent at that pick. Early drafts they aimed for fast to the majors hitting because that was the highest % of success. Now the shift has gone to pushing pitching with the higher picks.

This year they have depth of pitching. Hitting has taken a back seat and that could end up a focus again but with the roster being young still I really think the focus will end up best talent available vs targeting a "type"

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Pretty sure Lange will be the ace type that we have been waiting for. Stuff plus pedegree going into the draft. Right now he is on a tear and could get moved up to Tenn. Clifton is looking like he may have turned a corner and he should be next in line for Iowa opening a spot for Lange.

So I’m expecting some movement in the mid-terms after the focus goes from the draft and to promotions. Tseng honestly sucks right now and is making the team look piss poor on this starts. Hedges should end up cut also. I don’t see then holding roster spots for fringe talent players and both could be cut soon.

Had to guess: Clifton goes to Iowa as he has over a year in Tenn. Tseng gets bumped off to DFA. Hedges axed as he was fringe anyways.

Lange moves up to Tenn to close the year. I don’t see them rusihing other guys as they are pretty much where they should be right now. Lange is just that advanced and Clifton is due a promotion now.

I have never once seen a projection of Lange as a TOR starter. Most have him as a 4/5 type with the absolute ceiling as a 3.

From Fangraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-chicago-cubs/

Amateur evaluators had some concerns about Lange’s ability to pitch in a big-league rotation, requiring better fastball command and a yet-to-develop third pitch to project him as a starter. Lange used his curveball as a crutch at LSU and never developed feel for his changeup, though a source who saw him in the Northwest League, where Lange used his change more often, thought it had promising movement. And while Lange’s fastball command is fringey and his delivery’s violence precludes scouts from projecting upon it, pitchers like Lance McCullers have set a precedent for a curveball-heavy approach to pitching as a starter. So, while they’re less traveled, I think Lange has several clear paths to (realistically, No. 4) starterdom despite his current issues.

 

[CSF77]

I have never once seen a projection of Lange as a TOR starter. Most have him as a 4/5 type with the possibility to be a 3.

IDK about that.

I've have had a habit of looking at a pitchers hits/IP over the years. And it really holds true when looking at guys. Sure you can go more advanced but I normally start there.

Iowa:
Underwood: 52.2 IP 46 hits. Having success.
Tseng: 54.1 IP 65 hits. Getting shelled.
Mills: 50.1 IP 51 hits. Pretty middle of the road starter that you are talking about.
Alozay: 39.2 IP 43 hits. reflects his youth and his on/off games.

Tenn:
Clifton: 51.2 IP 39 hits. That is honestly huge.
Hatch 55.2 IP 53 hits again doing well but his BB are at 25 which is why he needs development.
DeLaCruz: 48.2 IP 48 hits. Good pitcher but again looks like a middle of the road guy.
Rucker: 44.2 IP 41 hits not sure why he is at 4.63 ERA myself. Might end up a talent cap here honestly.
Robinson: 52 IP 64 Hits. He is ripe to be wrecked right now. His control is saving him atm.

MB:
Lange: 47.0 IP 44 hits. 9 BB ok so we have a guy that is under 1:1 hit ratio no HR's given up Striking guys out 7.85/9....I think he is beyond a #3 peak guy.

 

[CSF77]

Beck might know more about this but I think that they have been making him not use his curve so he can develop his fastball command. Guys with a plus breaking pitch tend to fall in love with it which makes his other offering fall behind.

What I'm looking at is he is a man among boys right now.

Has not given up a HR sense being drafted.
1.13 WHIP with a 7.85 SO/9. Avg 5 2/3 IP per game in his first full year in the pros. And that maybe under a curveball restriction. Not 100% sure on that bit but regardless the numbers don't lie.

I get falling in love with most of the guys that they have brought up but looking at one guy that you would put money on Lange honestly is the guy that breaks the top 100

 

[chibears55]

Cubs make any significant deadline trade, i think it'll be for a bat...



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

I have never once seen a projection of Lange as a TOR starter. Most have him as a 4/5 type with the absolute ceiling as a 3.

From Fangraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-chicago-cubs/

Thing about fangraphs is they add in the risk. Here's a quote from a recent chat

GoPadres: I see in the Padres list, Gore is a FV 55 and #3. Does he have the upside of a #1? What would you guess the percent chance of that happening is?

12:59
Kiley McDaniel: We’ve explained this in a few places, but it’s important to note that the pitcher FV’s are hedged a bit due to attrition. 55 FV is a trade value grade, in a sense. If he becomes what his tool grades say, he’ll be like a 65 FV, but there’s a real chance that stuff goes wrong in a big way for a teenager in Low-A, so he’s something like the trade value of multiple years of a 55 FV in the big leagues, or something like that. He’s in our top 5 pitchers in the minors, if I’m not mistaken. Maybe 15-25% chance of being an ace? That’s insanely high when there’s 8-12 on Earth at a given time and many stay there for awhile.

This is sort of what I was referencing with the whole 8-10 aces earlier. As this pertains to Lange, I am not sure I'd put him in the "ace" category but I think he can be a #1 starter. What i'd like to know is if they have told him not to use his curve as much this year. The reason I want to know this is because his k/9 is 7.71. This is a guy who had a 10.44 k/9 and a 3.68 bb/9 in college in easily the best baseball conference. The question was never will he strike guys out. It was does he have enough command. But that's what's so interesting about this year. His k/9 might be under 8 but his bb/9 is FANTASTIC at 1.71. Given we know his change up is fringy and his fastball command was iffy I am wondering if they told him to hold off using the curve as much and work on those two pitches. If he's getting those sorts of results without his true out pitch then it's really encouraging.

Also, I think people need to understand the difference between the various TOR/MOR/BOR type players. A "ace" is a pitcher who has at least three plus pitches and usually better than average control(read: 55+ grade). A TOR pitcher usually has at least 2 plus pitches and a decent third offering. If Lange reaches his potential, he's got a chance at a 60 fastball and his curve is a 65/70 depending on who you ask. The reason there was reliever talk is with regard to him not having a defined third pitch and because his control wasn't there. That's why they hedge a bit and call him a more likely 4/5 type. Mid rotation arms will usually have 1 plus pitch and 1-2 above average(55 grade pitches). BOR pitchers usually wont have a plus pitch.

I would argue Lange is probably more of a Lester type #1 if he gets to his ceiling but more likely is a decent #2 best case. I think the scouting is a bit to pessimistic on him. You don't K 10+ per 9 in the sec without having good stuff. As an example here, Kyle Wright at Vandy had 10.22 k/9 and 3.03 bb/9. So, Lange was able to strike as many guys out his control was just worse. I think the main difference is that control and the fact that Wright had 2 other pitches besides his FB/CU that are above average in a change and slider. If teams were sure Lange had a good enough change up I'm guessing he would have been a top 15 pick. Clarke Schmidt went 16th with a 60/55/55/50 FB/CU/SL/CH mix with 50 control as another SEC pitcher.

 

[beckdawg]

Beck might know more about this but I think that they have been making him not use his curve so he can develop his fastball command. Guys with a plus breaking pitch tend to fall in love with it which makes his other offering fall behind.

I don't know and sadly I'm not sure there's anywhere that tracks that sort of data in the minors. Next time fangraphs does a chat I intend to ask their prospect guys if they have heard anything though.

 

[CSF77]

I thought that Lange was a steal at his pick myself. If they attacked the situation and are forcing him to pitch vs curve crutch it might end up a very nice situation.

I do think that the end up challenging him at AA while moving Clifton up still. But have been encouraging so far. Clifton more so in his hits/9. I just think that he is focusing on keeping the ball down more. He is not over powering up there so it most likely to do with his pitch command now.

Lange on the other hand. It is kinda every thing. Just the B.B.:9 is a flag. Then you go back and see 0 HR’s. We might end up with a very solid TOR.

 

[beckdawg]

Also just fyi i tweeted at the guy who does prospect stuff at bleacher nation asking about Lange's curveball usage this year. He said his last outing he saw he was still using it.

 

[CSF77]

3rd round pick from last years draft:

Keegan Thompson: Might be even more impressive. 1.08 WHIP (1.71 BB/9) 8.75 SO/9 Only major difference is 5 HR's vs 0 for Lange. Keegan turned 23 in March. Alex turns 23 in Oct. Size Alex 6'3" 197 Keegan 6'0" 193

So we have 2 pretty interesting guys upwelling right now.

 

[beckdawg]

So, the drafts tonight. I'll try to dig up info on the guys the cubs grab as best I can. If there's anything specific people are interested in knowing let me know and I'll try to find out. Given where things stand, I think my general feeling is they will go HS bat in the first but it's really hard to tell how 10-20 will shape up right now. There could be guys who fall that are college players that are more interesting or there could be an even bigger run on college guys than expected leading to a bunch of HS guys who are interesting.