2020 MLB Draft

[beckdawg]

He still is a hitting project. upper and lower half are out of sync. He gets by with his quick hands. But lets be a little real here for a second. He survived vs lesser talent and got by due to that fact. He will be going from 89 mph to 98 mph soon enough. Bad mechanics will kill him.

So in general this pick is a head scratchier. I am guessing that they know how to fix his swing. But seeing how most get eaten by the system and never make it past A ball...

This is a fairly weak argument. He had hits in nearly every CWS game which is a higher collection of talent. Also I wouldn't call hitting .334 "surviving". If you want to argue that the big 10 isn't the SEC that's fine and a valid argument. But it's not as though every hitter in the big 10 hits over .300. And by that logic, no player outside the power schools can ever make it which is easily provable false.

I mean realistically how much difference is there between him and Heston Kjerstad who went #2 overall? If you go by scouting grades from mlb.com, both are 45 bats. Kjerstad has 60 power vs Nwogu's 55. Nwogu is a 60 runner vs Kjerstad's 45. Kjerstad has a 55 arm vs Nwogu's 45. So, you're looking at two prospects likely to hit for similar average. Kjerstad will probably have more power but it's not a crazy difference. And defensively it's a case of a better arm vs better range. Kjerstad hit .331/.412/.563 with 7.8%/19.5% bb/k rates admittedly in a stronger SEC. Nwogu hit .335/.442/.577 with 13%/18.6% bb/k rates.

Now look I'm not sitting here saying Nwogu should have been the #2 pick in the draft. I think you can rightfully argue that were he in the SEC his k rate would be higher and he may not have hit for as much power given better pitching. But if you don't see why he's an interesting pick IDK what to tell you any more. After Torkleson, Kjerstad was arguably the best college hitter in the draft. Nwogu kept up with him in basically every stat and has shown better plate discipline. If he's even slightly better in his hit tool than projected he would probably have been a first round pick. He's not going to be an amazing defender but he's not Vogelbach level defense either. You can play him in the outfield.

End of the day, he could end up being a huge bat that they got as a 3rd round pick. Obviously to get him in the third found you're going to have flaws. But what I see is a guy who has power to all fields and who's already shown he knows the strike zone. On top of that he's got very good speed for his size. And you're putting him into an organization that has made quick changes to recent draftees that have made major impacts in Nico/Davis. That was also before they invested heavily in their development program this offseason. If you're going to bet on your development team, Nwogu is the type of player to do it on.

 

[CSF77]

This is a fairly weak argument. He had hits in nearly every CWS game which is a higher collection of talent. Also I wouldn't call hitting .334 "surviving". If you want to argue that the big 10 isn't the SEC that's fine and a valid argument. But it's not as though every hitter in the big 10 hits over .300. And by that logic, no player outside the power schools can ever make it which is easily provable false.

I mean realistically how much difference is there between him and Heston Kjerstad who went #2 overall? If you go by scouting grades from mlb.com, both are 45 bats. Kjerstad has 60 power vs Nwogu's 55. Nwogu is a 60 runner vs Kjerstad's 45. Kjerstad has a 55 arm vs Nwogu's 45. So, you're looking at two prospects likely to hit for similar average. Kjerstad will probably have more power but it's not a crazy difference. And defensively it's a case of a better arm vs better range. Kjerstad hit .331/.412/.563 with 7.8%/19.5% bb/k rates admittedly in a stronger SEC. Nwogu hit .335/.442/.577 with 13%/18.6% bb/k rates.

Now look I'm not sitting here saying Nwogu should have been the #2 pick in the draft. I think you can rightfully argue that were he in the SEC his k rate would be higher and he may not have hit for as much power given better pitching. But if you don't see why he's an interesting pick IDK what to tell you any more. After Torkleson, Kjerstad was arguably the best college hitter in the draft. Nwogu kept up with him in basically every stat and has shown better plate discipline. If he's even slightly better in his hit tool than projected he would probably have been a first round pick. He's not going to be an amazing defender but he's not Vogelbach level defense either. You can play him in the outfield.

End of the day, he could end up being a huge bat that they got as a 3rd round pick. Obviously to get him in the third found you're going to have flaws. But what I see is a guy who has power to all fields and who's already shown he knows the strike zone. On top of that he's got very good speed for his size. And you're putting him into an organization that has made quick changes to recent draftees that have made major impacts in Nico/Davis. That was also before they invested heavily in their development program this offseason. If you're going to bet on your development team, Nwogu is the type of player to do it on.

College pitching is basically A+ quality at best. Sure a guy can get rushed up in the pen or if a hitter has a solid base of hitting with little needed adjustment like Bryant (shorten his swing) Happ and Schwarber both paid for it. Too soon on Nico but he has a good hit tool.

I dont doubt his raw talent. But he should have more polish at the point that he is.

 

[CSF77]

Add to it. Numbers really don't matter vs talent that by far ends up depending on their degree vs their talent.

End of the day if they wanted a hitting project they should have drafted a high school project. Their 1st round has a better hit tool.