2020 MLB Offseason Thread

[CSF77]

Cubs Exercise Anthony Rizzo’s 2021 Option
By Connor Byrne | October 31, 2020 at 1:33pm CDT

TODAY: The Cubs officially announced that Rizzo’s option has been exercised.
OCTOBER 30: The Cubs bought out left-hander Jon Lester’s option Friday, but first baseman Anthony Rizzo won’t get the same treatment. The team’s planning to pick up his $16.5MM option for 2021, which will be Rizzo’s last season of team control, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
Retaining Rizzo shouldn’t come as a surprise, but as we’ve seen this week, all bets seem to be off in baseball’s current economic climate. And while Rizzo has generally been fantastic since he first became a Cub in 2012, the 31-year-old took sizable steps backward this season. Rizzo put up a pedestrian 103 wRC+, his worst since his debut with the Padres in 2011, and batted .222/.342/.414 with 11 home runs in 243 plate appearances. Moreover, Rizzo’s .339 expected weighted on-base average was his worst since the Statcast era began, and it was a 55-point drop from the .394 mark he logged in 2019.
While Rizzo will return to the Cubs for another season and hope for a rebound, their lineup might look quite a bit different otherwise. After a first-round playoff exit this fall, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein suggested an offensive shakeup is forthcoming. That could put other Cubs mainstays (Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, to name a couple of examples) in jeopardy of sticking with the team in 2021.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Team right now:

Happ CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Heyward RF
Baez SS
Schwarber LF
Hoerner 2B

The main problem out side of expiring contract was all but 2 had a career worst year. Sledge the Assistant Hitting Coach was canned over it. Iapoce was not. Now I personally believe it has to do with structure of the org. Iapoce and Hottovy are metrics guys.

Borzello Chicago Cubs: Appreciating Mike Borzello and his secret scouting reports Is the hands on guy for the pitchers and catchers. Sledge was fired which means he was the hands on guy for the hitters and that failed as a unit.

So this new hire kinda means something. I wouldn't be shocked if Napoli gets moved up from QA coach So, Dave Roberts, what’s a quality assurance coach? but they could go out of the box and target Manny.

So in house they get what they have back to their career avg this team can still be a force to recon with.

Lol so you've missed 2017-2019?

 

[knoxville7]

I was giving Schwarber/Bryant 60 as a avg.
Almora/Bote 20 as a avg

That is 40+ HR lost per year. Or a guaranteed 40 Runs per year lost.

With the current line up build that is a net loss in runs and Bauer would not sign to a anemic team. He is a free agent and has said that he will only sign with teams that he feels can get him a ring that year. IE built to win vs in transition.

The topic is pointless.

I hate it when Cubs fans think that the top F/A will just sign here when NYY and Atl have better chances to nail him.

lol okay dude. I totally didn’t say Bauer is some lock to sign here. I said the cubs should be interested and consider it. But go on and on about how they don’t need any pitching. And I never said almora would be schwarbers replacement, so not sure how you came to that conclusion.

and the cubs are more built to win now than most teams are. But go ahead and hate on em all you want.

talking to you is pretty pointless. Have fun!

 

[knoxville7]

Team right now:

Happ CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Heyward RF
Baez SS
Schwarber LF
Hoerner 2B

The main problem out side of expiring contract was all but 2 had a career worst year. Sledge the Assistant Hitting Coach was canned over it. Iapoce was not. Now I personally believe it has to do with structure of the org. Iapoce and Hottovy are metrics guys.

Borzello Chicago Cubs: Appreciating Mike Borzello and his secret scouting reports Is the hands on guy for the pitchers and catchers. Sledge was fired which means he was the hands on guy for the hitters and that failed as a unit.

So this new hire kinda means something. I wouldn't be shocked if Napoli gets moved up from QA coach So, Dave Roberts, what’s a quality assurance coach? but they could go out of the box and target Manny.

So in house they get what they have back to their career avg this team can still be a force to recon with.

To the bolded

wait, I thought they were a team in transition and not built to win now?!?

 

[CSF77]

To the bolded

wait, I thought they were a team in transition and not built to win now?!?

Like I said. Back to career norms a force to be reckoned with.

Yu and Hendricks are both 4-5 WAR pitchers. You have Alzolay who is up and coming. Lester who should be resigned as a place holder for Marquez.

 

[CSF77]

lol okay dude. I totally didn’t say Bauer is some lock to sign here. I said the cubs should be interested and consider it. But go on and on about how they don’t need any pitching. And I never said almora would be schwarbers replacement, so not sure how you came to that conclusion.

and the cubs are more built to win now than most teams are. But go ahead and hate on em all you want.

talking to you is pretty pointless. Have fun!

The way you have been on his jock it feels that way.

35 Mil is a huge investment. And to be honest Bauer is not going to be worth it. We got that level of production out of Yu for 15 mil less per.

We don't need another ace. Yet. We have one. We have another in Marquez. Pitching was not the problem in 2020. It was the line up collectively shutting down. They fired Sledge so I'm guessing that they will add a coach that can work with these guys to get them back in tune.

They could do nothing and win with what they have. They won when the O was broken and that was a aberration vs a norm.

 

[knoxville7]

The way you have been on his jock it feels that way.

35 Mil is a huge investment. And to be honest Bauer is not going to be worth it. We got that level of production out of Yu for 15 mil less per.

We don't need another ace. Yet. We have one. We have another in Marquez. Pitching was not the problem in 2020. It was the line up collectively shutting down. They fired Sledge so I'm guessing that they will add a coach that can work with these guys to get them back in tune.

They could do nothing and win with what they have. They won when the O was broken and that was a aberration vs a norm.

on his jock? listing him with like 5 other FA’s means being on his jock? Jesus Christ

 

[CSF77]

Lol so you've missed 2017-2019?

2017- the pitching staff fell apart mid season. Hendricks got injured. Jake lost velocity. They had to trade for Q to save the season.

2018- they sign Yu and he gets injured. Then they again do a hail merry trade to save the season.

2019- was under production by the staff. Hammels carried the team until his injury then became useless. Yu was useless until the ASG and then he became what we say in 2020.

Every year the staff was broken. The O drove the team to contention. 2020 that flipped. The staff drove the team and the O was the anchor.

So yes if the O is fixed then it bodes well.

Yu took the Ace mantle and is not a flash in the pan like Jake was. Kyle is on of the best #2's in baseball. Then they have 2 talented arms ready to go. Not Mills but as we saw he has a strong curve that he throws for strikes. His no hitter it was his primary pitch as he lost his 2 seam. Later game he found his 2 seam and changed his attack pattern mid game again off setting them.

He needs experience. We should know seeing Kyle that that works.

So over all the staff is actually in a really good place right now and are really just looking at a bridge to Marquez vs a life line.

The difference here is before when something bad happens they had to life line to save the season. This year they have that net in Marquez.

It makes a huge difference having a impact talent pending.

 

[CSF77]

2020-21 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

Where will Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, and George Springer sign, and for how much? Check out our predictions!

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Short ver, you can read the link for the extended:

1. Trevor Bauer – Dodgers. Four years, $128MM.
2. J.T. Realmuto – Mets. Five years, $125MM.
3. George Springer – White Sox. Five years, $125MM.
4. Marcell Ozuna – Nationals. Four years, $72MM.
5. DJ LeMahieu – Blue Jays. Four years, $68MM.
6. Marcus Stroman – Angels. Four years, $68MM.
7. Ha-Seong Kim – Rangers. Five years, $40MM (plus $7.625MM posting fee).
8. Didi Gregorius – Reds. Three years, $39MM.
9. Kevin Gausman – Giants. Accepts one year, $18.9MM qualifying offer.
10. Masahiro Tanaka – Yankees. Three years, $39MM.
11. Jake Odorizzi – Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM.
12. Liam Hendriks – Phillies. Three years, $30MM.
13. Michael Brantley – Braves. Two years, $28MM.
14. Justin Turner – Dodgers. Two years, $24MM.
15. Marcus Semien – Angels. One year, $14MM.
16. James McCann – Phillies. Two years, $20MM.
17. Andrelton Simmons – Yankees. One year, $12MM.
18. Joc Pederson – Cardinals. Two years, $18MM.
19. Jose Quintana – Red Sox. Two years, $18MM.
20. Nelson Cruz – Twins. One year, $16MM.
21. Jackie Bradley Jr. – Astros. Two years, $16MM.
22. James Paxton – White Sox. One year, $10MM.
23. Taijuan Walker – Nationals. Two years, $16MM.
24. Garrett Richards – Phillies. Two years, $16MM.
25. Kolten Wong – Red Sox. Two years, $16MM.
26. Brad Hand – Astros. Two years, $14MM.
27. Trevor Rosenthal – Angels. Two years, $14MM.
28. Trevor May – Giants. Two years, $14MM.
29. Blake Treinen – Marlins. Two years, $14MM.
30. Tommy La Stella – Athletics. Two years, $14MM.
31. Corey Kluber – Twins. One year, $12MM.
32. Yadier Molina – Cardinals. One year, $10MM.
33. Charlie Morton – Mets. One year, $8MM
34. Jurickson Profar – Tigers. One year, $7MM
35. Adam Wainwright – Cardinals. One year, $6MM.
36. Robbie Ray – Brewers. One year, $6MM.
37. Cesar Hernandez – Diamondbacks. One year, $6MM.
38. Carlos Santana – Brewers. One year, $6MM.
39. Alex Colome – White Sox. One year, $6MM.
40. Mike Minor – Angels. One year, $6MM.
41. J.A. Happ – Mariners. One year, $6MM.
42. Kirby Yates – Padres. One year, $5MM.
43. Greg Holland – Mariners. One years, $5MM.
44. Drew Smyly – Giants. One year, $5MM.
45. Jon Lester – Braves. One year, $5MM.
46. Rick Porcello – Tigers. One year, $5MM.
47. Cole Hamels – Padres. One year, $4MM.
48. Mark Melancon – Braves. One year, $4MM.
49. Anthony Desclafani – Red Sox. One year, $4MM.
50. Chris Archer – Cubs. One year, $4MM.

 

[beckdawg]

Chris Archer is an interesting case to me. People are going to see him and think either he's done or he may be CHRIS ARCHER again. But to me I like him for a pretty simple reason. Assuming he's healthy he could be a versatile piece because he's always been someone who struck people out. His career K rate is 9.83 and keep in mind that's as a starter. He was hurt this year and his walks and homers ballooned which is obviously why he's not really that expensive. However, that K rate gives him some interest as a bull pen guy too.

If his market is 1 year $4 mil I'm taking that. That is a contract where if you need to push him into the bullpen he's fine and if he lands back as a decent starter you might even consider throwing up a QO on him

 

[CSF77]

Chris Archer is an interesting case to me. People are going to see him and think either he's done or he may be CHRIS ARCHER again. But to me I like him for a pretty simple reason. Assuming he's healthy he could be a versatile piece because he's always been someone who struck people out. His career K rate is 9.83 and keep in mind that's as a starter. He was hurt this year and his walks and homers ballooned which is obviously why he's not really that expensive. However, that K rate gives him some interest as a bull pen guy too.

If his market is 1 year $4 mil I'm taking that. That is a contract where if you need to push him into the bullpen he's fine and if he lands back as a decent starter you might even consider throwing up a QO on him

Ya I saw Archer at the end and thought why not. It really comes down to Archer or Lester in a investment. 1 is a gamble the other is a safe bet but low impact.

I am still expecting Lester because that is what Theo does but Archer IMO would be a decent risk reward for that price.

On the QO it depends on the season results. Say Marquez promotes and Mills falls into long man. Archer makes a strong rebound. That point he would turn down a QO. I would think on giving him a term deal at that point.

This is a huge what if. That said, Darvish is locked up from 21-23. Hendricks 21-23 and a 24 opt. So that is their next window. Giving him a 1 year 4 mil then a 2 year deal extension makes sense at that point. It gives 3 years to mold Marquez and Alzolay into the next gen staff leaders and the time to bolster the system for the future waves.

But this is a perfect wave scenario. That hardly ever happens.

 

[CSF77]

By Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
11:56 AM CST

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CHICAGO -- Yu Darvish did not win the National League Cy Young Award on Wednesday evening, but the Cubs pitcher did get some good news.
Darvish learned that his runner-up finish came with some financial gain, and he now plans to help others with his unexpected salary increase.
On Thursday morning, Darvish posted on Twitter in Japanese that he was surprised to learn from his agent that he would be earning an additional $1 million in each of the next three seasons. The Cubs' ace wrote that he will donate a portion to charity, but the amount and where it will go are to be determined.

That $1 million escalator was built into Darvish's six-year, $126 million contract based on finishing between second and fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting. As a result of the righty finishing in second place behind winner Trevor Bauer, Darvish will have a base salary of $23 million in 2021, $20 million in '22 and $19 million in '23.
This is only the latest in Darvish's charitable endeavors.
In April, Darvish donated more than $40,000 in profits from his YouTube channel, split between causes to aid cancer research and to help single-mother households. He has contributed to ALS research, animal rescues and other causes. In 2007, Darvish also established the Yu Darvish Water Fund to help provide clean water in developing countries.

Jordan Bastian covers the Cubs for MLB.com. He previously covered the Indians from 2011-18 and the Blue Jays from 2006-10. Read his blog, Major League Bastian and follow him on Twitter @MLBastian.

Read more:

• Chicago Cubs
• Yu Darvish

 

[CSF77]

MLB Planning For Fan Attendance In 2021
By TC Zencka | November 14, 2020 at 8:58am CDT

Commissioner Rob Manfred took a judicious approach to allowing fans into stadiums in 2020, and it’s hard to argue that it wasn’t the right strategy. MLB didn’t allow fans into stadiums until the Championship Series, and even then they limited entries. With rigorous testing and strict protocols, MLB went 54 days without a positive test before Justin Turner tested positive for COVID-19 during game six of the World Series. The NFL, in their struggle to contain the virus, is proving the significance of MLB’s achievement in that regard.
There’s a new plan for next season, however. Commissioner Manfred believes that the lack of live baseball diminished interest in the sport and affected revenues beyond the obvious loss of ticket sales. Specifically, MLB estimates that 40% of their overall revenue ties directly to the presence of fans at live games, per the Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Even in a limited capacity, fans at ballgames in 2021 could help keep audience engaged throughout the season and into its endgame: the playoffs.
Drellich provides some Nielson ratings to quantify the drop in postseason viewership. Both the Championship Series and the World Series saw ~30% drop in viewership from the previous season.
Of course, there are many challenges ahead for Commissioner Manfred and MLB. Cases of coronavirus are at an all-time high, and though the winter has long been projected to be particularly rough, the current rate of infection in places that Wisconsin is worse than expected. Whether the nation can get control of the situation before March and April remains very much unclear. Manfred does note that the allowance of fan attendance can only move forward with approval from local health officials.
They will have the experience of the 2020 season to help them along, of course. The couple of breakouts early in the season helped MLB to narrow their focus to containing the spread of the virus while simply allowing for changes to the schedule. Regional play also helped contain outbreaks for MLB, though it’s unclear right now if a similar approach would be taken over a full season – or even if MLB plans on having a “full” 162-game season in 2021.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs Open “To Move Almost Any Veteran” In Trades
By Mark Polishuk | November 15, 2020 at 10:00pm CDT

For the third straight offseason, the Cubs are indicating that some roster shuffling could be in order, and they seem closer than ever before to making some notable moves. As per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required), the Cubs have told other teams that “significant turnover” is coming, and “the Cubs are signaling…a willingness to move almost any veteran.”
Javier Baez is reportedly one of the players Chicago is open to at least hearing offers for, which is significant since Baez has been the member of the Cubs core group most often discussed as an extension candidate, rather than as a trade chip. Baez’s extension talks with the Cubs last offseason didn’t really go anywhere, however, and any attempts at further progress were impeded first by the pandemic and the transactions freeze, and then possibly by Baez’s struggles once the 2020 season got underway. The shortstop hit only .203/.238/.360 with eight homers over 235 plate appearances, easily his worst performance since his 2014 rookie season.
Taking a look at the Cubs’ pricier veterans, Baez, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber are all arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter before being eligible for free agency, while catcher Willson Contreras is heading into the second of three arb-eligible years. Anthony Rizzo is under contract through the 2021 season, Craig Kimbrel is guaranteed through 2021 with a $16MM club/vesting option for 2022, and Yu Darvish, Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote are all locked up through at least the 2023 season on longer-term contracts.
Naturally, the phrasing of “almost any veteran” means some trades are more realistic than others. While a case could be made for the Cubs to sell high on Darvish or Hendricks, for instance, the team is also counting on them as long-term anchors for the rotation, so it’s probably less likely that either of those two pitchers are moved. Also, in terms of pure due diligence, most front offices are usually open (to some extent) to discuss trades for almost any player, just in case another team comes along with a truly stupendous offer.
The Cubs also made little in the way of noteworthy transactions in either of the past two winters, despite Theo Epstein’s past hints that bigger moves were necessary. With all these caveats in mind, however, it does seem like the Cubs are finally approaching some level of wider-scale shakeup, as the loss of revenues due to the pandemic may have forced the team’s hand. Nothing can really be ruled out, whether it’s trading only one highly-paid veteran, or perhaps moving several such players in order to cut payroll.

 

[CSF77]

Deadline To Protect Players From Rule 5 Draft Is Tonight
By Steve Adams | November 20, 2020 at 8:19am CDT

As noted last month when we ran through various key dates for the offseason, tonight marks the deadline for teams to protect players from the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. Clubs wishing to protect Rule 5-eligible players must add them to their 40-man rosters by 6pm ET tonight or else risk losing them to another team during next month’s draft, which takes place on Dec. 10.
Eligibility is dependent on a player’s age and the timing of his entry to the professional ranks. A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster in advance of the deadline. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2017 class, high school draftees out of the 2016 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2016-17 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)
Players who meet those criteria but are not added to the 40-man roster by tonight’s deadline will be eligible to be conditionally drafted to another club at next month’s event. The new team will have to take said player and not only place him directly on its 40-man roster but also carry him on the Major League roster throughout the 2021 season. Rule 5 draftees must remain on the Major League roster for the entire season in order to be retained by their new club. They can be placed on the Major League injured list, of course, but a player must spend at least 90 total days on the active roster in order to shed his Rule 5 designation. Should he not spend 90 days on the active roster, his Rule 5 designation would roll over into the 2022 season and remain in place until his 90th (cumulative) day on a big league roster.
As those who’ve followed prior offseasons surely recall, tonight’s looming deadline will prompt plenty of action over the course of the day. Expect a handful of trades and waiver claims as well as a slew of DFAs today as teams look to create 40-man roster space to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects. Trades made in the runup to this deadline may not look like blockbusters at the time, but one need only look back three years to see that trades on this day can have enormous ramifications; on this day in 2017, the Astros traded a yet-to-debut outfielder named Ramon Laureano to the A’s for minor league righty Brandon Bailey (who was not Rule 5-eligible and thus did not need to be protected).
As you might imagine, it’s easier to account for protection of prospects for teams with extra 40-man roster space, but it’s not as simple as having an opening. That club also must be able to carry a player in that spot throughout the winter and into the season. Adding a player that wouldn’t have been selected (or wouldn’t have lasted on an active roster) therefore has its own risk: if you end up needing the space, you might have to expose such a player to outright waivers in the middle of the season.
Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has a breakdown of the Rule 5-eligible players from each team’s Top 30 prospects who’ll need to be added by tonight’s deadline or else exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Seven of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, headlined by Astros righty Forrest Whitley, need to be protected this year. Those seven will assuredly be protected, but not every player within a club’s top 30 rankings will be added to a 40-man roster today.
Not long ago, we’d already have seen a slew of 40-man additions and probably some minor transactions in the week leading up to this deadline as teams prepared. Today’s brand of general manager/president of baseball operations, however, seems wholly intent on waiting right up until every deadline to make final decisions — be it the trade deadline, Rule 5 protection deadline, non-tender deadline, etc. The Cardinals have made a pair of 40-man adds this week — catcher Ivan Herrera and righty Angel Rondon — but it’s been silence from the league’s other 29 teams.
This year’s Covid-19 pandemic, of course, only further obscures the already difficult task of determining which minor leaguers run the risk of being selected by another organization. Most clubs didn’t get to see the bulk of their prospects in a competitive setting in 2020. Even more difficult was their lack of looks at minor leaguers in other organizations. These decisions are never easy for any team, but the challenges of the 2020 make this year’s slate of roster protection transactions all the more complicated.
Here’s a look at how many 40-man roster openings each club has to work with at the moment, although it’s important to recognize that these totals will change within hours of this writing due to the aforementioned avalanche of transactions that looms:
Nationals: 9
Phillies: 9
Athletics: 8
Reds: 8
Dodgers: 7
Cubs: 6
Blue Jays: 5
Indians: 5
Orioles: 5
Mariners: 5
Rangers: 5
Twins: 5
Angels: 4
Brewers: 4
Mets: 4
Red Sox: 4
Tigers: 4
White Sox: 4
Yankees: 4
Braves: 3
Diamondbacks: 2
Marlins: 2
Padres: 2
Rockies: 2
Astros: 1
Cardinals: 1
Giants: 1
Rays: 1
Royals: 1
Pirates: 0

 

[CSF77]

Cubs 2020 Rule 5 Draft & Minor League Free-Agent Watch List
Submitted by Arizona Phil on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 11:30am
LAST UPDATED 10-30-2020

As things stand right now...

57 Cubs minor leaguers are eligible for selection in the December 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft, and 25 Cubs minor leaguers (19 post-2020 6YFA and six second-contract players) are eligible to be declared MLB Rule 55 minor league 6YFA at 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day following the final game of the 2020 World Series (or at 5 PM Eastern on October 15th if the 2020 World Series is cancelled).

LHP Matt Dermody, OF Ian Miller, LHRP Josh Osich, INF-OF Hernan Perez, and 1B-3B Patrick Wisdom were outrighted to the minors during the 2020 season and had the right to either elect free-agency immediately or else defer free-agency until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, and all five accepted their respective outright assignments and deferred their respective option to elect free-agency until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season. Dermody, Miller, and Wisdom elected free-agency prior to the 10/15 deadline, while Osich and H. Perez did not. However, Osich and H. Perez will be automatically declared MLB Rule 55 minor league 6YFA after the World Series if the player does not sign a 2021 minor league successor contract or is not added back to the MLB 40-man roster in the meantime.

The Cubs will have until five days after the final game of the 2020 World Series (or until October 15th if the World Series is cancelled) to either sign a post-2020 MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agent (including any Article XIX-A or Article XX-D player who did not file for free-agency by October 15th) to a 2021 minor league successor contract or add the player to their MLB 40-man roster, otherwise the player will automatically be declared a free-agent.

Also, any 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible player who is not eligible to be a minor league free-agent after the World Series but who was sent outright to the minors after signing a 2020 MLB contract (Trevor Megill and Michael Rucker) must be added to the MLB 40-man roster no later than 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the 2020 World Series or else the player cannot be added back to the MLB 40-man roster of the club that outrighted the player until after the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft.

Then the Cubs must decide by November 20th which 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible players (including any player eligible to be a minor league free-agent post-2020 who has signed a 2021 minor league successor contract) to add their MLB 40-man roster (to keep the player from being eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft).

The Cubs also must decide by November 20th whether to place a 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor league player who is not added to the MLB 40-man roster on 11/20 on their AAA Iowa reserve list or on the reserve list of an affiliate of a lower classification. At most 38 of the 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguers can be placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20. However, although the AAA Reserve List limit is 38, probably more like 35 of the Rule 5 Draft-eligible players will actually be placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list on 11/20 (the Cubs placed 35 players on their AAA Iowa reserve list in both 2018 and 2019), because slots need to be left open for players the Cubs might want to select in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft, as well as for free-agents signed to minor league contracts or players outrighted to the minors after 11/20 but prior to the Rule 5 Draft. (Any Rule 5 Draft-eligible player who signs a 2021 minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft will be eligible for selection). Any 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguer who is not placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20 will be eligible for selection in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft).

Here are some of the more-noteworthy Cubs minor leaguers who are either eligible to be a minor league free-agent post-2020 or eligible for selection in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft (full lists further down the post)...

LAST UPDATED: 10-30-2020

GROUP 1 (Eligible to be Minor League FA post-2020 - MLB ready or near-MLB ready):
USEFUL AAA DEPTH - NOT LIKELY TO BE RETAINED POST-2020
1. Josh Osich, LHRP - 4+119 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & one minor league option left if added back to the 40
2. Rex Brothers, LHRP - 4+161 MLB ST - has Article XX-D rights and no minor league options left if added back to te 40
3. Hernan Perez, INF-OF - 5+097 MLB ST - has Article XIX-A rights & no minor league options left if added back to the 40
4. Pedro Strop, RHRP - 9+092 MLB-ST - has Article XIX-A rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
5. Joe Wieland, RHRP - 3+035 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to thd 40)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
LEGIT PROSPECT (50/50 CHANCE TO BE ADDED TO 40 POST-WORLD SERIES IF NOT DURING SEASON)
6. Danny Hultzen, LHRP - 0+023 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
NOT LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO 40 POST-WORLD SERIES
7. Tyler Olson, LHRP - 2+114 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
8. Mark Zagunis, OF - 0+103 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
9. Jerry Vasto, LHRP - 0+037 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & two minor league options left if added to the 40
NOTE-1: Article XIX-A means player can't be optioned or sent outright to minors without his consent once he is added to MLB 40-man roster
NOTE-2: Article XX-D means player can elect free-agency if sent outright to minors after being added to 40

GROUP 2 (Eligible to be Minor League FA post-2020 - not ready for MLB):
LEGIT PROSPECT (50/50 CHANCE TO BE ADDED TO 40 POSt_WORLD SERIES)
1. Jerrick Suiter, RHP (ex-1B)
SECOND TIER-PROSPECTS
2. Luis Lugo, LHP - SWING
3. Jordan Minch, LHRP
4. Ryan Lawlor, LHRP (second-contract player)
5. Erling Moreno, RHP - SWING
6. Corey Black, RHRP
7. Erick Castillo, C
8. Eugenio Palma, LHRP
9. Ivan Medina, RHRP
10. Luke Hagerty, LHRP (has Article XX-D rights & three minor league options left if added to the 40)
11. Vance Vizcaino, OF (second contract player)
12. Eric Gonzalez, C
13. Garrett Kelly, RHRP (second-contract player)
COMMENT: Only Jerrick Suiter has an outside chance to be added to the 40 post-World Series, but all of the pitchers and players in this group will likely be offered a 2021 minor league successor contract, although if offered one, the player does not have to sign it.

GROUP 3 (Eligible for selection in 2020 Rule 5 Draft - likely on AAA Reserve List if not added to MLB 40-man roster)
LEGIT PROSPECT (AT VARIOUS LEVELS):
1. Cory Abbott, RHSP (AAA - likely to be added to 40 on 11/20)
2. Christopher Morel, INF (Hi-A - likely to be added to 40 on 11/20)
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3. P. J. Higgins, C-INF (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20 if not during season)
4. Michael Rucker, RHP - SWING (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 after World Series - has Article XX-D rights & three minor league options left if added to the 40)
5. Duncan Robinson, RHSP (AAA - 50-50 chance to be added to the 40 on 11/20)
6. Trevor Megill, RHRP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added back to the 40 after World Series - has Article XX-D rights & three minor leaguie options left if added back to nthe 40)
7. Dakota Mekkes, RHRP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
8. Keegan Thompson, RHSP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
9. Brendon Little, LHSP (AA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
10. Aramis Ademan, SS (AA- 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
11. Juan Gamez, RHRP (Hi-A - 50/50- chance to be added to 40 pmn 11/20)
NOTE: The ten players listed above are good candidates to get selected in the Major League Phase of the 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft if not added to the AAA Iowa reserve list by 11/20 (depending on how many AAA slots the Cubs leave open going into the Rule 5 Draft, there could be as many as 38 Rule 5 Draft-eligible players placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list).
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SECOND-TIER PROSPECT (AAA):
12. Trent Giambrone, INF-OF
13. C. D. Pelham, LHP - SWING (0+027 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & two minor league options left if added back to the 40)
14. Wyatt Short, LHRP
15. Matt Swarmer, RHP - SWING
16. Craig Brooks, RHRP
17. Donnie Dewees, OF
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SECOND-TIER PROSPECT (AA):
18. Erich Uelmen, RHP - SWING
19. Ben Hecht, RHRP
20. Bailey Clark, RHP - SWING
21. Eddy Julio Marttinez, OF
22. Javier Assad, RHSP
23. Jeffrey Passantino, RHP - SWING
24. Bryan Hudson, LHSP
25. Jared Young, 1B-OF
26. Delvin Zinn, INF
27. Zach Davis, OF
28. Tommy Nance, RHRP
29. Scott Effross, RHRP
39. Tyler Payne, C
SECOND-TIER PROSPECT (SINGLE-A)
31. Jose Albertos RHSP
32. Cam Balego, C-INF
33. Yunior Perez, RHSP
34. Danis Correa, RHRP
35, Aneuris Rosario, RHRP
36. Peyton Remy, RHP - SWING
37. Yonathan Perlaza, OF (ex-INF)
38. Fernando Kelli, OF
NOTE: All of the players listed above are good candidates to get selected in the AAA Phase of the 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft if not added to the AAA Iowa reserve list by 11/20 (depending on how many AAA slots the Cubs leave open going into the Rule 5 Draft, there could be as many as 38 Rule 5 Draft-eligible players placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list).

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Fact is, it is not unusual for veteran players who are added to the MLB 40-man roster during the course of the season to be removed from the 40 when they are no longer of use to the club. For example, RHP Jason Adam, LHP Rex Brothers, LHP Matt Dermody, 2B Jason Kipnis, OF Ian Miller, INF Hernan Perez, C Josh Phegley, and 1B-3B Patrick Wisdom (all eligible to be minor league free-agents post-2020) were added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster just prior to or during the course of the 2020 MLB regular season, although Dermody, Miller, Perez, and Phegley were subsequenjtly outrighted back to the minors and Wisdom was Designated for Assignment prior to the conclusion of the season, and in 2019 RHP Allen Webster, Of-1B Jim Adduci, OF Carlos Gonzalez, LHP Tim Collins, INF Robel Garcia, and LHP Danny Hultzen (all eligible to be minor league free-agents post-2019) were added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the course of the 2019 season, although Adduci was outrighted back to AAA in June and elected free-agency aftef the conclusion of the MLB regular season, Webster was outrighted back to Iowa after the season and was declared a Rule 55 minor league 6YFA after the World Series, CarGo and Collins elected to be free-agents after being outrighted in July, and Hultzen was non-tendered in on 12/2. Robel Garcia (a second-contact player signed by the Cubs to a 2019 minor league contract post-2018 and who was added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster in July) was claimed off waivers by the Cincinnati Reds in July 2020.

Besides adding players who are eligible to be minor league free-agents to the 40 during the MLB regular season, a player eligible to be a Rule 55 minor league free-agent (second-contract or 6YFA) is sometimes added to the club's MLB 40-man roster post-World Series just to keep the player from becoming a minor league free-agent, especially if the player declines to sign a minor league successor contract. That's what happened in 2018, when the Cubs added RHRP Matt Carasiti (eligible to be a Rule 55 second-contract minor league FA post-2017) to the 40 after the 2017 World Series to keep him from walking away as a free-agent, although he was released about a month later so that he could pursue an opportunity to pitch for the NPB Tokyo Yakult Swallows in Japan. (The Cubs received a substantial cash payment from the Swallows as the release fee).

But even if a minor leaguer who is eligible to be a free-agent signs a successor contract, the club might choose to add the player to the MLB 40-man roster because the club doesn't want to risk losing the player in the Rule 5 Draft. In fact this happened in 2016, when LHRP Jack Leathersich (who was eligible to be a Rule 55 second-contract minor league FA post-2016) signed a 2017 minor league successor contract prior to the conclusion of the World Series, only to be added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster on 11/18 so that he would not be eligible for selection in the December 2016 Rule 5 Draft.

The bottom line is, if a player eligible to be an MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agent (either 6YFA or second-contract FA) is not added to an MLB 40-man roster or does not sign a minor league successor contract by 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series, the player will be automatically declared a free-agent and the player's former club receives no compensation if the player signs elsewhere. So minor leaguers like Jerrick Suiter, Luis Lugo, and Jordan Minch (as well as the other players eligible to be a minor league FA post-2020) have leverage other Cubs minor leaguers do not have.

As far as players who are eligible for selection in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft are concerned, only one (LHP Brailyn Marquez) was added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the 2020 MLB regular season (and that was on the last day of the season!).

The Cubs did not add players who were Rule 5 Draft eligible to their MLB 40-man roster during the course of the 2019 MLB regular season, but they did add three (RHP Tyson Miller, C Miguel Amaya, and INF Zack Short) to the 40 on 11/20.
NOTE: INF Nico Hoerner was added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the 2019 season, but he would not have been eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft until post-2021.

In 2018, the Cubs added RHRP James Norwood to the 40 during the course of the MLB regular season and LHSP Justin Steele to the 40 on 11/20. By comparison, during the course of the 2017 MLB regular season the Cubs added four players to the 40 (RHP Dylan Floro, RHRP Dillon Maples, RHSP Jen-Ho Tseng, and OF Mark Zagunis) who would have been eligible for selection in the December 2017 Rule 5 Draft, although Floro was subsequently claimed off waivers by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
NOTE: INF-OF Ian Happ was also added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the 2017 season, but he would not have been eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft until post-2018.

The Cubs then added three more post-2017 Rule 5 Draft-eligibles (RHSP Adbert Alzolay, INF David Bote, and RHSP Oscar de la Cruz) to the 40 on 11/20 of 2017, Bote after hitting a robust 333/395/536 for the Mesa Solar Sox in the post-season Arizona Fall League. (It's not unusual for the Cubs to assign a Rule 5 Draft-eligible player to the Arizona Fall League, as the AFL is often used as a "proving ground" for pitchers and position-players who are under consideration for promotion to an MLB 40-man roster).
NOTE: Prior to 2019, players who were eligible to be MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agents after the World Series could not be assigned to the AFL unless the player had either been added to an MLB 40-man roster or had agreed to a minor league successor contract, but with the AFL season now starting and ending three weeks earlier than in prior years, the AFL season will end prior to MLB Rule 55 minor league players becoming free-agents, and so players eligible to be MLB Rule 55 minor leaguers five days after the final game of the World Series can play in the AFL even if the player has not signed a minor league successor contract).

 

[CSF77]

6 spots for now and I expect that to grow after they run DFA.

But going with those 6 spots:

1. Cory Abbott, RHSP (AAA - likely to be added to 40 on 11/20)
2. Christopher Morel, INF (Hi-A - likely to be added to 40 on 11/20)
3. P. J. Higgins, C-INF (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20 if not during season)
4. Michael Rucker, RHP - SWING (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 after World Series - has Article XX-D rights & three minor league options left if added to the 40)
5. Duncan Robinson, RHSP (AAA - 50-50 chance to be added to the 40 on 11/20)
6. Trevor Megill, RHRP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added back to the 40 after World Series - has Article XX-D rights & three minor league options left if added back to the 40)
7. Dakota Mekkes, RHRP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
8. Keegan Thompson, RHSP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
9. Brendon Little, LHSP (AA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
10. Aramis Ademan, SS (AA- 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)

The 4 that I would l would leave off: Higgins, Robinson, Mekkes, Little. Rest protect.

Rucker IMO can pitch in the pen on opening day and be just as good as the guy he replaces.

Robinson and Mekkes are soft tossers. Hard pass.

Little has been a disappointment and most likely not selected.

Ademan would make a great UI. I would want him in AAA for depth.

Megill is interesting. 6'8". Sits 93-94 but can amp up to 97. Good curve that he can throw for a strike or pound into the dirt. In short stints he could be a unheard of option that impacts in 2021.

Higgins most likely will be grabbed but that is not a concern with Amaya on the 40 man and MLB ready,

Thompson still has enough upside to be protected. I see him as a pen arm vs a starter.
Abbott would default to AAA. I see him and Miller leading that staff and the front depth to the SP crew. Marquez could be there also unless Jed decides to push the button on him. That is unlikely with his track record of giving a taste then letting the player digest and adjust in Iowa.

 

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1329913694214631425

 

[CSF77]

• Copy Link

CHICAGO -- There are holes to fill in the Cubs' rotation for next season, but the team also has to strengthen its depth behind the Major League staff. That made protecting Cory Abbott from the Rule 5 Draft process an easy decision for the North Siders.
The Cubs selected the contracts of Abbott, infielder Christopher Morel and righty Keegan Thompson on Friday night, adding the trio to their 40-man roster. That effectively removed them from the pool of players eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 10. The Cubs' roster now includes 37 players.
It costs $100,000 make a Rule 5 selection, and the player must remain on the MLB roster all season or be offered back to his original team for $50,000.
This offseason, the Cubs have three starters from their 2020 rotation -- Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood and José Quintana -- on the free-agent market. As things currently stand, Chicago's starting staff includes Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills, with prospect Adbert Alzolay in position to claim a fourth spot.
While the Cubs will be pursuing MLB rotation help this winter, the situation could open opportunities for some internal arms. Top prospect Brailyn Marquez, who was added to the roster in September for his MLB debut, could knock on the door on the big leagues again in 2021. Abbott will also be among the prospects aiming to reach The Show next year.
Here is a round-up of Friday's moves for the Cubs.
Added to the 40-man roster
Abbott (No. 12 on the Cubs' Top 30 Prospects, per MLB Pipeline)
The 25-year-old Abbott spent time in 2020 at the Cubs' alternate training site in South Bend, Ind., and reported to instructional league after the season. The right-hander is poised to serve as Major League rotation depth as soon as '21, depending on the needs next year and how this offseason plays out.
Abbott, who was picked in the second round of the 2017 MLB Draft, made 26 starts for Double-A Tennessee in '19. He logged a 3.01 ERA with 166 strikeouts against 52 walks in 146 1/3 innings. In three pro seasons (excluding '20), Abbott has a 2.84 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Morel (No. 11)
Morel made a brief appearance at Wrigley Field during Summer Camp in July, delivering a double that ignited a three-run rally. Talk about making a good impression. The 21-year-old infielder is versatile and a strong defender at third base, and he also has experience at short along with limited action in the outfield.
In 73 games with Class A South Bend in 2019, Morel hit .284 with six homers, seven triples, 15 doubles and 31 RBIs. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in August of '15, Morel got experience at the Cubs' South Bend training site in '20.

Thompson (No. 26)
A third-round pick out of Auburn in the 2017 MLB Draft, Thompson spent part of the '20 season at Chicago's alternate training site in South Bend as part of the 60-man pool. Injuries limited the righty to 10 Minor League innings in '19, though he struck out 26 while walking six in 25 1/3 innings in the Arizona Fall League later that year. In '18, Thompson posted a 3.61 ERA with 115 strikeouts and 34 walks in 129 2/3 innings between Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach and Double-A Tennessee.
Top prospects left unprotected
Strictly looking at the MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Prospects list for the Cubs, left-hander Brendon Little (No. 30) was the lone eligible player left unprotected for possible selection in the Rule 5 Draft.
• Gauging the state of the Cubs' farm system
The 24-year-old Little was a first-round pick (No. 27 overall) by the Cubs in the 2017 MLB Draft. In '19, he topped out at Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach among three stops. In 55 1/3 innings overall, the lefty had 57 strikeouts, 26 walks and a 3.58 ERA.
Other names of note
Right-hander Trevor Megill (selected by the Cubs in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft) and righty Michael Rucker (selected by the Orioles in '19 and returned to the Cubs) spent time at the South Bend site in '20. Neither are on the 40-man roster, leaving them exposed to the Rule 5 process again.
Catcher P.J. Higgins has been in big league camp in Spring Training multiple times for the Cubs and served as the primary fourth-string backstop in 2020. He had an .895 OPS in 36 games with Triple-A Iowa in '19, and he was at the South Bend camp in '20 following Summer Camp.
Right-hander Dakota Mekkes (10th round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of Michigan State) spent the '20 season at the South Bend site and has been in big league camp the past two years. The 6-foot-8 righty has struck out 11.5 batters per nine innings in four pro seasons with Chicago (excluding '20).

Jordan Bastian covers the Cubs for MLB.com. He previously covered the Indians from 2011-18 and the Blue Jays from 2006-10. Read his blog, Major League Bastian and follow him on Twitter @MLBastian.

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1329913694214631425

I'm assuming that they would offer Keiboom in return. Which is questionable better than Bote. So in view of this they would have to have a big pitching chip added in. Hate to say it but their system sucks. Jackson Rutledge is their #1 and he is rated as a 50 talent. Not even in the top 100. To me it is both to even start a convo.