2020 MLB Offseason Thread

[CSF77]

OF the guys listed.

Jake pass. Will pitch but no point.

Folty yes. Him rebounding has potential.

Hill yes because he will get 12 great games in and sit on the DL. Which means there will be opertunity for Marquez to get games in.

Shark. kinda pointless like Jake. He will take the mound and really not do much other than soak innings.

Rondon makes a decent set up. Not against it.

So if they have 3 mil to spend I would target Folty #1. Hill #2. Rondon #3. Jake and Shark would pass on.

 

[knoxville7]

Shocking...another star player in arenado that gets traded for a very “meh” haul. Like I’ve been saying, this is the market for star players on big contracts.

 

[Steve_A]

While the Cubs tear things down because they're out of money the Cardinals acquire Arenado and cash.

And the Indians get Rosario for 8 mil...

Seems like the Cards want the division way more than we do...

 

[CSF77]

It is most likely 10m instalments per year. Nolan is owed 35mil per year for 4 years and 32 for the final year.

That 50 mil was just to move that deal.

That trade was to move a albatross. Nolan was not producing enough to justify 35m per. 25 mil is acceptable.

He is no Trout.

 

[CSF77]

And the Indians get Rosario for 8 mil...

Seems like the Cards want the division way more than we do...

Neither team is good enough to get past any quality play off team.

This is like fighting over the best junkyard.

 

[beckdawg]

Shocking...another star player in arenado that gets traded for a very “meh” haul. Like I’ve been saying, this is the market for star players on big contracts.

I was kinda proud that I nailed the amount the rockies would have to pay down. Believe I had said $23-25 mil AAV range and the $50 mil they are sending thecards puts it right at $25 mil.I will say this though he did return slightly more than I was expecting. Like not saying the return was nothing but he probably netted one more 40 grade player than I would have thought not that it is any kind of deal breaker.

 

[CSF77]

Well here it comes...


Cubs To Sign Trevor Williams
January 30th, 2021 at 4:11pm CST • By Mark Polishuk
The Cubs have agreed to a one-year, Major League deal with right-hander Trevor Williams, Evan Altman of Cubs Insider reports (Twitter link). The contract will become official once Williams passes a physical. Williams will earn roughly $2.5MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

After spending all five of his MLB seasons in a Pirates uniform, Williams will remain in the NL Central and now look to win a job at the back of Chicago’s rotation. Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, Adbert Alzolay, and Alec Mills are lined up for the first four starting spots, though only Hendricks and Davies truly have their spots locked up. Kohl Stewart was also recently signed to a big league contract, Shelby Miller to a minors deal, and at least one more arm is on the way, as ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets that the Cubs are expected more pitching before Spring Training opens.

Williams opted to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment from the Pirates back in November, with the Bucs’ move essentially acting as an early non-tender — Williams was projected to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM in arbitration. He received a fair amount of interest on the open market despite some rough numbers in 2020. Williams posted a 6.18 ERA and only a 19.4 strikeout percentage (ranking in the 25th percentile of all pitchers) over 55 1/3 innings. The home run problems that plagued Williams in 2019 worsened last season, as he allowed a league-high 15 homers.

Both the home run increase and a marked uptick in hard contact allowed has led to struggles for Williams since the start of the 2019 season. During the 2017-18 seasons, however, Williams looked like a durable young pitcher on the rise, as he had a 3.56 ERA over 321 innings in Pittsburgh’s rotation. Williams kept hitters off-balance despite a lack of a blazing fastball or big strikeout numbers, though since his SIERA was over a run higher than his 3.56 ERA, there might have been some good fortune involved.

Williams (who turns 29 in April) does have a solid track record when it comes to eating innings, which will certainly be valuable on a Cubs staff that may be juggling multiple arms at the back of the rotation. Alzolay, Mills, and Stewart have only 215 1/3 combined big league innings on their resume.

 

[PickSix]

Another important piece to the 2021 shit show initiative. Woohoo.

 

[CSF77]

Another important piece to the 2021 shit show initiative. Woohoo.

New Cubs Pitcher Kohl Stewart Has Legit Stuff, Could Blossom with Minor Adjustments - Cubs Insider

I genuinely think righty Kohl Stewart, who was just signed to a rare MLB deal, will be a fun pitcher to monitor once spring training begins. He’s got legit “stuff.” Just because the Cubs refuse to invest in expensive starting pitching doesn’t mean Stewart isn’t an interesting pick-up in a...

www.cubsinsider.com

 

[CSF77]

Share:
1 day agoFree-agent starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz threw for interested teams in Atlanta on Friday and looked to be in fine shape while hitting 90-92 mph on the radar gun. Foltynewicz was an All-Star in 2018 with the Braves when he went 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 ERA while striking out 202 batters and walking 68 in 31 starts over 183 innings. But his FIP of 3.37 that year showed that he was pretty fortunate despite striking out 9.9 hitters per nine innings. He posted a 4.54 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 21 starts the following year and was outrighted to the team's alternate site in the shortened 2020 season when he allowed six earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his lone start. The 29-year-old could get a chance to compete for a backend starting rotation spot somewhere in 2021, but he's off the fantasy radar for now.--Keith Hernandez - RotoBaller
Source: MLB Network - Jon Heyman

 

[PickSix]

Sure. Signing super cheap one year deals in hopes that one or two look respectable to flip for a legit prospect mid year is exactly what Jed should be doing in a full blow it up and rebuild.
And a terrible record helps the draft big time as well.
It’s the right approach if you don’t have Dodger or Yankee money.
I’m good with it as long as they verbally stop saying that it isn’t what they are doing. It’s a bit insulting to the fan base.

 

[CSF77]

Sure. Signing super cheap one year deals in hopes that one or two look respectable to flip for a legit prospect mid year is exactly what Jed should be doing in a full blow it up and rebuild.
And a terrible record helps the draft big time as well.
It’s the right approach if you don’t have Dodger or Yankee money.
I’m good with it as long as they verbally stop saying that it isn’t what they are doing. It’s a bit insulting to the fan base.

Stewart might be the only Diamond in the rough in this mess. If he excels all of this will be forgotten if Jed extends him.

 

[CSF77]

As far as the team stands right now:

Jed did tell Pederson that he would get full time play. I would expect the exception being the tough lefty vs all lefties.

Happ CF (Appears to be a lock now)
Bryant 3B (Tentative)
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Pederson LF
Baez SS
Heyward RF
Hoerner 2B

Majors deal:

1 Hendricks
2 Davies
3 Williams
4 Stewart

Team control: (40 man)
1 Mills
2 Alozay
3. T. Miller
4. Steel
5. Marquez
6. Abbott
7. Keegan Thompson

Minors deal
S. Miller

After Pederson and Williams become official the 40 man will go to 39. Jed has said that he wants 1 more starter. We can speculate it will be either Folty or Arrietta.

The big 3 are still on the board; Bauer, Paxton and Jake Odorizzi . I expect all to out price Jed.

The rest come with warts. So Steward was a interesting choice. Jed went on potential with him. He was the #4 pick in Bryant's draft so the talent is there. His issue is he is a typical 2 seam pitcher that generates groundballs. The Cubs have been having their pitchers go against the current trend of pitchers scrapping the 2 in lieu of a 4 and instead tunnel their 2 seam higher in the zone as other pitchers are using their 4 seam. For the most part it has been successful.

Trevor Williams really is not better or worse than what is left on the board. Taijuan Walker, Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Shoemaker, Anibal Sanchez, Jeff Samardzija , Tyson Ross, Rick Porcello ,Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc , Mike Leake, Cole Hammels, Rich Hill, Felix Hernandez, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Godley, Mike Foltynewicz, Mike Fliers, Homer Bailey, Jake Arrieta, Chris Archer, Brett Anderson, Tyler Anderson, Chase Anderson.

The Cubs have watched Folty, Shark and Jake. So I really see it as these 3 pitchers are the focus right now.

Walker has the most upside on the list but I see him going to LAA. Him being a Cali guy it makes sense for him.

Hill IMO will go top a contender. His track record has been more so a post season weapon vs a regular season innings eater. There is no match up here.

Archer is not proven healthy to date. I don't see Jed gambling on health issues with the little he has to spend.

Foltynewicz threw between 90 and 92 mph, which checks in well below the 95.5 mph average he posted in Atlanta from 2014-20.

So I could see Jed going after Jake here. Jake has experience and that pays off. Folty really lacks that experience after losing velocity and I just don't see it being a wise choice at this point. Jake has already adapted to losing it and worked on his off speed command to make up for it.

Shark is over rated. He really was never a great pitcher. He came in with a 4 seam, cutter and a split. He never had a quality breaking pitch. I really don't see the point going there at this point with him.

 

[beckdawg]

I’m good with it as long as they verbally stop saying that it isn’t what they are doing. It’s a bit insulting to the fan base.

Realistically, how much worse is the current 2021 cubs vs the 2020 cubs? The 2020 cubs won 56.6 percent of their games which over 162 games is roughly 92 wins. Pederson and Schwarber are largely very similar value players. They haven't replaced Kipnis yet but then are we really worried about what kipnis gave the 2020 cubs? Caratini vs Romine seems fairly comparable and given they are back up catchers the value isn't that important regardless.

From a pitching stand point, Lester was terrible in 2020 with a 5.16 era and a 5.14 FIP. Quintana didn't pitch basically at all. Chatwood had 5 starts with a 5.30 ERA overall. In terms of the bullpen, Adams and Winkler are back and both performed well. Wick is back. Kimbrel is back(for the moment). Underwood is also back. So 5 of their top 8 arms are back with the exception being Jefferies, Tepera and Ryan. The latter 2 aren't really big losses. Jefferies was nice but keep in mind they literally found him on the scrap heap prior to 2020. So, who's to say they can't do that again given they also found guys like Winkler and Adams for next to nothing.

Point I'm trying to make here is thus far we're only looking at 1 major difference between 2020 and 2021 and that's Darvish. You can't replace a season like Darvish had in 2020. However given how shit the rest of the staff was minus Hendricks, you can certainly be better in your 3-5 starters in 2021 and make up the difference you lose that way. The high projections atm on Darvish is a 4 fWAR season. The high projection on his replacement Davies is 2 fWAR. In other words, 3-5 you need to look to be about 2 fWAR better than 2020 which given how shit the back half of the rotation was isn't asking all that much

To be clear here, the cubs are by no stretch a serious world series contender. But they are easily a playoff contender especailly in a weak division. Obviously if they deal Bryant that changes some of the equation. I personally can't see them dealing Contreras and Hendricks despite reports that differ. Those two going also would change things. But other than that, like... i guess I'm just not that pesemistic. The cubs did all that last year with Baez Bryant and Rizzo having pretty crap years.

 

[PickSix]

Realistically, how much worse is the current 2021 cubs vs the 2020 cubs? The 2020 cubs won 56.6 percent of their games which over 162 games is roughly 92 wins. Pederson and Schwarber are largely very similar value players. They haven't replaced Kipnis yet but then are we really worried about what kipnis gave the 2020 cubs? Caratini vs Romine seems fairly comparable and given they are back up catchers the value isn't that important regardless.

From a pitching stand point, Lester was terrible in 2020 with a 5.16 era and a 5.14 FIP. Quintana didn't pitch basically at all. Chatwood had 5 starts with a 5.30 ERA overall. In terms of the bullpen, Adams and Winkler are back and both performed well. Wick is back. Kimbrel is back(for the moment). Underwood is also back. So 5 of their top 8 arms are back with the exception being Jefferies, Tepera and Ryan. The latter 2 aren't really big losses. Jefferies was nice but keep in mind they literally found him on the scrap heap prior to 2020. So, who's to say they can't do that again given they also found guys like Winkler and Adams for next to nothing.

Point I'm trying to make here is thus far we're only looking at 1 major difference between 2020 and 2021 and that's Darvish. You can't replace a season like Darvish had in 2020. However given how shit the rest of the staff was minus Hendricks, you can certainly be better in your 3-5 starters in 2021 and make up the difference you lose that way. The high projections atm on Darvish is a 4 fWAR season. The high projection on his replacement Davies is 2 fWAR. In other words, 3-5 you need to look to be about 2 fWAR better than 2020 which given how shit the back half of the rotation was isn't asking all that much

To be clear here, the cubs are by no stretch a serious world series contender. But they are easily a playoff contender especailly in a weak division. Obviously if they deal Bryant that changes some of the equation. I personally can't see them dealing Contreras and Hendricks despite reports that differ. Those two going also would change things. But other than that, like... i guess I'm just not that pesemistic. The cubs did all that last year with Baez Bryant and Rizzo having pretty crap years.

Are you on the Cubbie payroll?

Minus that once in a bazillion year red hot start of 14-3 this team was and is a sub .500 team. Taking Yu’s W’s away and replacing with a dude no one has heard of is easily another 10 game swing. I don’t see this team even getting to 75 W’s. That rotation is atrocious. And nothing has really been done to redo an offense that statistically was very misleading. 10 runs one game then virtually nada for the next 3 or 4.

 

[CSF77]

Are you on the Cubbie payroll?

Minus that once in a bazillion year red hot start of 14-3 this team was and is a sub .500 team. Taking Yu’s W’s away and replacing with a dude no one has heard of is easily another 10 game swing. I don’t see this team even getting to 75 W’s. That rotation is atrocious. And nothing has really been done to redo an offense that statistically was very misleading. 10 runs one game then virtually nada for the next 3 or 4.

Davies is not unheard of.

Beck's point is fair but we are arguing over the best junkyard.

I would rather have Yu and Hendricks vs a middle of the road rotation. Play offs Yu and Kyle match up vs most of the league. This argument is good for completing a season. Not competing

 

[CSF77]

Details on MLB's reported new regular season proposal

MLB may not be ready for a full 162-game schedule just yet.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[beckdawg]

Are you on the Cubbie payroll?

Minus that once in a bazillion year red hot start of 14-3 this team was and is a sub .500 team. Taking Yu’s W’s away and replacing with a dude no one has heard of is easily another 10 game swing. I don’t see this team even getting to 75 W’s. That rotation is atrocious. And nothing has really been done to redo an offense that statistically was very misleading. 10 runs one game then virtually nada for the next 3 or 4.

I think you've vastly underestimating just how bad the central is. Pitt went 19-41 last year and has traded away their best two pitchers and has done literally nothing to improve this season. 19-41 is a 51 win team over 162 games. With out Taillion and Musgrove they may be as bad as the 2001(think that's the right year) detroit team that was historically bad. Cincy was a .500 team last year and they are losing Bauer who's just as big a loss as Darvish. MIL has done nothing and they were sub-.500 last year.

Only team that's improved is potentially St. Louis with Arenado who also was terrible last year. IIRC you play like 47% of your games in division in a typical year. If you're .500 outside the division and play like .600 ball in division you're winning like 46 games in division and 43 games outside the division for an 89 win season.

Simply put, this team isn't 15 games worse than the 2020 cubs which is basically what you're suggesting.

 

[CSF77]

I think you've vastly underestimating just how bad the central is. Pitt went 19-41 last year and has traded away their best two pitchers and has done literally nothing to improve this season. 19-41 is a 51 win team over 162 games. With out Taillion and Musgrove they may be as bad as the 2001(think that's the right year) detroit team that was historically bad. Cincy was a .500 team last year and they are losing Bauer who's just as big a loss as Darvish. MIL has done nothing and they were sub-.500 last year.

Only team that's improved is potentially St. Louis with Arenado who also was terrible last year. IIRC you play like 47% of your games in division in a typical year. If you're .500 outside the division and play like .600 ball in division you're winning like 46 games in division and 43 games outside the division for an 89 win season.

Simply put, this team isn't 15 games worse than the 2020 cubs which is basically what you're suggesting.

The team is not good enough to win a play off series as is.

Last year if the O did not shut down Yu and Kyle gave them a chance.

So sure they could win the NLC. That is clapping for the tallest midget.


The only way that this team can be taken serious is if Steward and Alzolay both take off this year and Marquez joins in.

Then it becomes interesting and we could see a 2015 all over again.


That is a huge reach but talent wise sure if they take off.

 

[beckdawg]

The team is not good enough to win a play off series as is.

Last year if the O did not shut down Yu and Kyle gave them a chance.

So sure they could win the NLC. That is clapping for the tallest midget.


The only way that this team can be taken serious is if Steward and Alzolay both take off this year and Marquez joins in.

Then it becomes interesting and we could see a 2015 all over again.


That is a huge reach but talent wise sure if they take off.

Be that as it may, the 2020 team lost to miami. Like i've never said the team was a legitimate threat to win a world series. I'm simply saying they aren't a great deal worse than the 2020 team. Hell you could argue if Bryant remains and if Bryant, Baez and Rizzo have season they are capiable of having they are as good as what you lose from darvish.

IDK i guess my view on this is like... whatever. Shoot to be a team that makes the playoffs and roll the dice. Best team doesn't always win the world series.