Whatever. As I said I'm not sure how they compute this metric.
Looking at past several year models going into the playoffs...
2021, the model said the Clippers were the most likely team to win the Championship, with the Sixers being the second favorite. The Jazz and Nets were 3rd/4th. Only the Clippers made the Conference Finals, and were decimated by Kawhi being gone by then.
2020 is a wacky year, so I'm going to excuse it. It picked the Clippers at 29%, Lakers 22%, Bucks 21%, Celtics 11%. The Heat had a less than 1% chance. I would say on paper I would have given all those top 4 teams great chances at a title run that year.
2019 had the Warriors with a 58% chance winning into the playoffs, and Raptors 17%. The Bucks had a 15% chance. Model actually computes well here, though we know the Warriors didn't win.
2018 had the Rockets at 44%, Raptors 17%, Sixers 11%.. the two teams who actually made the Finals? 4%.