2021 Spring Training Thread.

[beckdawg]

Teams are going to need depth this year so I would never expect a play off quality team to dump assets. Even if he gets bumped it comes down to options with him and they can stock pile system depth if needed. Or just push him into the pen.

Time usually solves problems. So this will be sorted naturally.

Yeah i mean that's a fair take but I could see a case where they need some other piece more than him in a playoff push. IDK like i said he's just someone i'd like to see the front office target.

 

[CSF77]

Yeah i mean that's a fair take but I could see a case where they need some other piece more than him in a playoff push. IDK like i said he's just someone i'd like to see the front office target.

If Bryant had more control I could see a push that way but I really don't see the Cubs having the right parts and this off season is going to be one of the best F/A markets of all time.

I just see teams focusing on creating flexibility at the deadline to set up a mega signing.

As far as the Cubs are concerned their focus will be resigning Rizzo and Baez. I could see legit 5/90 on each offered. Neither are going into the off as top 10 players. Bryant right now is not but a 165 wRC+ puts him into the top 10. So I am expecting a QO on Bryant.

On the pitching we can expect Hendricks, Alozay and Marquez as the projected 2022 starters. The rest should sort itself out. This season should dictate if they resign any of Davies, Williams or Arrieta. Shoot if this rotation works I'm not opposed to gaining control and making the pen explosive with Alozay and Marquez in wait ready to blow up slowed down bats.

 

[CSF77]

Today looks like the opening day line up.

Happ
Contreras
Rizzo
Bryant
Pederson
Baez
Heyward
Hoerner
Hendricks

 

[CSF77]

Staff:

Trevor Williams is really separating himself from the rest right now. .66 BB/9 7.24 SO/9 .289 BABIP is pretty close to league avg numbers so his results are pretty legit right now.

Davies has no ER's off of him but he has a 5.0 BB/9 and a 4.0 SO/9 right now and that really needs to square itself away. He has had plenty of luck right now in a .148 BABIP which is completely unstainable.

Hendricks 2.16 BB/9 and a 11.88 SO/9. That is solid. .478 BABIP is polar opposite from Davies. Both are going to end up near the median of .300 and the underlying numbers support Hendricks.

So we have a very interesting 1-3 SP going on right now. Kyle is the de-facto ace right now but Williams could prove to be a break out candidate and a steal in F/A.

Arrieta 3.86 BB/9 and a 6.75 SO/9 with a .300 BABIP. This has the feel of is what it is. He is not going to be great anymore. but a decent back of the pen arm.

Mills His numbers are wack. 6.14 BB/9 and a 3.68 SO/9 .360 BABIP. He is what Davies would be with out the luck going on. I have a feeling the leash will be short here and he needs to up his game or end up in middle relief.

Shelby Miller Well 3.38 BB/9 and a 11.25 SO/9 .389 BABIP. So he could even get better when it goes back down to the median of .300.

My early opinion is push Miller into the rotation and really push their 4 1 year deal arms forward. If the team comes up short and these guys prove to be solid the trade value could get stupid.

 

[CSF77]

At add this is what Jed did in the first build that ended up getting Jake. Of the guys listed above the guy that holds the most potential is Williams but he is the guy that you would want to retain.

Miller may be the most bang for the buck. Jed has him on a minor league deal. Starting him from April to June to build value then flip him to promote Alozay to finish the season. This is the type of deal that makes a GM look like a genius if he ends up with a high ceiling talent while paying peanuts to get it.

Jake is not going to net much in return. I would rather have him resign on short deals to help the next generation mature as starters.

Davies you have to trade. The only exception is if they are flat out dominant this year. And anything can happen here. Remember 2015 Jake put up a cy-young quality year but he lacked a quality staff behind him and they fell short. Last year it was the same case with Yu. 2016 Jake regressed but the staff as a whole was solid 1-5 and they went on to win it all with out a true cy young starter. It was the depth > single great performance.

So getting to the staff. Well time will tell but from the early returns this staff might be the little engine that could.

 

[SilenceS]

At add this is what Jed did in the first build that ended up getting Jake. Of the guys listed above the guy that holds the most potential is Williams but he is the guy that you would want to retain.

Miller may be the most bang for the buck. Jed has him on a minor league deal. Starting him from April to June to build value then flip him to promote Alozay to finish the season. This is the type of deal that makes a GM look like a genius if he ends up with a high ceiling talent while paying peanuts to get it.

Jake is not going to net much in return. I would rather have him resign on short deals to help the next generation mature as starters.

Davies you have to trade. The only exception is if they are flat out dominant this year. And anything can happen here. Remember 2015 Jake put up a cy-young quality year but he lacked a quality staff behind him and they fell short. Last year it was the same case with Yu. 2016 Jake regressed but the staff as a whole was solid 1-5 and they went on to win it all with out a true cy young starter. It was the depth > single great performance.

So getting to the staff. Well time will tell but from the early returns this staff might be the little engine that could.

Cubs are waiting on the decision if Alozay has another minor league option on him. If not, he will be the 5th starter. If so, I can see him going down. It all depends on it. They want him pitching regularly.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs are waiting on the decision if Alozay has another minor league option on him. If not, he will be the 5th starter. If so, I can see him going down. It all depends on it. They want him pitching regularly.

I heard about that also. The fact that they have been sitting on him vs utilizing him points towards a slow build up on the side right now and the plan is the alternate training site for April.

Regardless of his status I don't see him in the rotation out of the gate. If that was so then he would be competing for a job like the rest of them.

 

[CSF77]

Bote vs Nico is another interesting battle. Bote just blew up for a 5 RBI game and has closed the gap.

I really don't know how this one will play out. On one hand giving Bote full time play can prove to be the best decision because he is the guy that you are looking at to replace Bryant at 3B. He puts up a strong season it makes the choice to let go of Bryant easier and not over pay Boras. Nico still has options and from a business model this is the best choice.

But we will see

 

[SilenceS]

I heard about that also. The fact that they have been sitting on him vs utilizing him points towards a slow build up on the side right now and the plan is the alternate training site for April.

Regardless of his status I don't see him in the rotation out of the gate. If that was so then he would be competing for a job like the rest of them.

You may be right on him not being the 5th at this point. I do remember a broadcast of them talking about wanting to build him up, so he can have longevity in the season since he has never pitched a bunch of innings in a season. They also seem to be hinting at multiple 5th starters through the season. I meant more of if he does have an option left then, I would assume they would rather send him down until a little later in the season.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Bote vs Nico is another interesting battle. Bote just blew up for a 5 RBI game and has closed the gap.

I really don't know how this one will play out. On one hand giving Bote full time play can prove to be the best decision because he is the guy that you are looking at to replace Bryant at 3B. He puts up a strong season it makes the choice to let go of Bryant easier and not over pay Boras. Nico still has options and from a business model this is the best choice.

But we will see

If they are planning on tanking next year then yeah bote at third is fine

 

[Discus fish salesman]

You may be right on him not being the 5th at this point. I do remember a broadcast of them talking about wanting to build him up, so he can have longevity in the season since he has never pitched a bunch of innings in a season. They also seem to be hinting at multiple 5th starters through the season. I meant more of if he does have an option left then, I would assume they would rather send him down until a little later in the season.

I think eventually alzolay is going to be a bullpen arm. He seems to lack the stamina to start from what he's shown the last couple years. I think his stuff would stand out at the back end of the pen though

 

[CSF77]

If they are planning on tanking next year then yeah bote at third is fine

Market is:


Third Basemen

Ehire Adrianza (32)
Nolan Arenado (31) — can opt out of remaining five years, $164MM
Kris Bryant (30)
Asdrubal Cabrera (36)
Matt Carpenter (36) — $18.5MM vesting option ($2MM buyout)
Eduardo Escobar (33)
Maikel Franco (29)
Todd Frazier (36)
Marwin Gonzalez (33)
Josh Harrison (34)
Brock Holt (34)
Jake Lamb (31)
Brad Miller (32)
Jose Ramirez (29) — $11MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Kyle Seager (34) — $15MM club option (buyout size dependent on stats in 2020-21)
Travis Shaw (32)
Eric Sogard (36)
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30)

Franco is the guy that I would consider. 2782 MLB PA .252/.304/.433 110 HR's 1 HR/25.3 AB
Bote 711 PA .240/.338/.415 24 HR's. 1/29.6 PA

Not much of a upgrade IMO. In 2782 PA Bote has a good shot to match this production.

Jake Lamb. Fell off the table post 2017.

Shaw 2421 PA .243/.325/.448 105 HR 1/23 PA. Again not much of a UPG to Bote.

Long story short. Boras is going to have the market by the balls at 3B which is going to push Bryant into 30M AAV. Which is vastly over priced for what he has brought to the table sense 2016.

That is my take. To make it easy let Bote roll out because he is as good as what is on the market. A out of the box move again is Happ working on 3B in the off season and promote Davis to take over CF. Happ's bat plays up to justify 3B.

 

[CSF77]

I think eventually alzolay is going to be a bullpen arm. He seems to lack the stamina to start from what he's shown the last couple years. I think his stuff would stand out at the back end of the pen though

Doubtful. He has been working on a curve and a change up to mix with his curve. His slider is then his put out pitch. Stuff wise he has a starting pitchers arsenal. They will push him out as a starter. He has not been a stamina issue. The Cubs are limiting his exposure to keep his MLB clock down. Jed doesn't want to lose control going into the next window.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Market is:


Third Basemen

Ehire Adrianza (32)
Nolan Arenado (31) — can opt out of remaining five years, $164MM
Kris Bryant (30)
Asdrubal Cabrera (36)
Matt Carpenter (36) — $18.5MM vesting option ($2MM buyout)
Eduardo Escobar (33)
Maikel Franco (29)
Todd Frazier (36)
Marwin Gonzalez (33)
Josh Harrison (34)
Brock Holt (34)
Jake Lamb (31)
Brad Miller (32)
Jose Ramirez (29) — $11MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Kyle Seager (34) — $15MM club option (buyout size dependent on stats in 2020-21)
Travis Shaw (32)
Eric Sogard (36)
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30)

Franco is the guy that I would consider. 2782 MLB PA .252/.304/.433 110 HR's 1 HR/25.3 AB
Bote 711 PA .240/.338/.415 24 HR's. 1/29.6 PA

Not much of a upgrade IMO. In 2782 PA Bote has a good shot to match this production.

Jake Lamb. Fell off the table post 2017.

Shaw 2421 PA .243/.325/.448 105 HR 1/23 PA. Again not much of a UPG to Bote.

Long story short. Boras is going to have the market by the balls at 3B which is going to push Bryant into 30M AAV. Which is vastly over priced for what he has brought to the table sense 2016.

That is my take. To make it easy let Bote roll out because he is as good as what is on the market. A out of the box move again is Happ working on 3B in the off season and promote Davis to take over CF. Happ's bat plays up to justify 3B.

I'm hoping they trade Bryant. I assume 2022 will be a transition year. But I'm saying if bote is the everyday 3rd baseman, I wouldn't bank on being real great next year. I really don't care if he is or not thought because I don't see us having any kind of competitive window next year

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Doubtful. He has been working on a curve and a change up to mix with his curve. His slider is then his put out pitch. Stuff wise he has a starting pitchers arsenal. They will push him out as a starter. He has not been a stamina issue. The Cubs are limiting his exposure to keep his MLB clock down. Jed doesn't want to lose control going into the next window.

Well he hasn't really been a guy that pitches real deep at the minor league level either. But at the mlb level it seems like to me he has had several games he'll dominate early and get lit up his second time through the lineup as his pitch count gets up over 50. So it could be several issues that could possibly be adjusted

 

[CSF77]

You may be right on him not being the 5th at this point. I do remember a broadcast of them talking about wanting to build him up, so he can have longevity in the season since he has never pitched a bunch of innings in a season. They also seem to be hinting at multiple 5th starters through the season. I meant more of if he does have an option left then, I would assume they would rather send him down until a little later in the season.

If it is me I'm pushing Miller into the 5 and Mills into spot starting and mid inning bum. Miller has upside and MLB experience. When his game is on he is pretty damn good. Mills is a train wreck waiting to happen.

 

[CSF77]

Well he hasn't really been a guy that pitches real deep at the minor league level either. But at the mlb level it seems like to me he has had several games he'll dominate early and get lit up his second time through the lineup as his pitch count gets up over 50. So it could be several issues that could possibly be adjusted

That is a fair point but as far as we know he has a pitch limit set in place. That would not be a stamina issue. It would be a inefficiency issue. We do know that he did get injured in AA a few years back and that did limit him on his come back.

Regardless what we are seeing is a time clock manipulation so he gets closer to the next wave. Jed is dealing with 4 potential F/A and 4 SP going into F/A at the end of the year. That brings opportunity and financial flexibility. Having control over Alozay and then Marquez pending. It makes a solid starting block. I would resign Williams and Aretta and keep Kyle as the ace.

After that I would make sure to have a deep middle relief core with 2 starters on pitch limits.

That fees up cash for replacing the line up. The way that I would approach it is Davis in CF and Happ at 3B. SS is a tough choice. Baez is the worst SS of the group.
Francisco Lindor (28) 32 AAV
Corey Seager (28) 30 AAV
Trevor Story (29) 26-30 AAV
Javier Baez (29) 20-22 AV
Carlos Correa (27) 20-22AAV

I would target Story but I can see Denver getting stupid again and over pay another player. Which makes the Cubs left with Javy.

Rizzo is about 100% as it gets. Jed has kept his puppy next to his heel ever since his draft in Boston.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs 40-Man Roster | The Cub Reporter (TCR) | A Chicago Cubs Blog

Roster Rules & Procedures

www.thecubreporter.com

Gives a bit of info on service times.

NOTE 4 -If the 2020 minor league season is not considered to be a "qualified season" because it was canceled before it started, Adbert Alzolay will be eligible for a 4th minor league option in 2021, Justin Steele will be eligible for a 4th minor league option in 2022 if his 3rd option is spent in 2021, Miguel Amaya and Manuel Rodriguez will be eligible for a 4th minor league option in 2023 if the 3rd option is spent in 2022, and Nico Hoerner, Brailyn Marquez, Christopher Morel, and Keegan Thompson will be eligible for a 4th minor league option in 2024 if the 3rd option is spent in 2023 (TBD).

I really don't see why this should be a issue. There was no MiLB in 2020. Players that took on MLB playing time that year goes on MLB service time. I believe the big argument will be alternate site assignment. If a player was assigned then the argument for year will be pushed. If the player was not assigned then no will be argued.

But wording has power.

Last year it was called Major League alternate training sites. Nothing in there signifies Minor League.

So there can not be a Minor League option if there is no Minor League to option to.

This should be a easy case to figure out.

 

[CSF77]

Chafin might be the biggest problem this year.

Miller comes in and clean inning. Then dud. And Strop dud.

This is a area of concern. The rotation outside of Mills is pretty solid.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Chafin might be the biggest problem this year.

Miller comes in and clean inning. Then dud. And Strop dud.

This is a area of concern. The rotation outside of Mills is pretty solid.

Why is Miller not being looked at for the rotation?