~60 million to spend?

[chibears55]

People are being fairly short sighted when they talk about acquiring pitchers in my opinion. If the cubs sign Lester fine. But I don't think you make a habit of signing 30 year olds when your prime group of players is 25 and below. Lester would be a stop gap to keep them competitive(to an extent) now and help replace what they lost in Shark. However, if you're talking about actually improving the team for when it matters you shouldn't be thinking Hamels, Peavy, Price, Lester, Shields...etc. You should be thinking about ways to acquire someone like Strasburg or Latos or someone in that age range. If you stick with the FA plan for pitching the next two years, by the time those position players arguably hit their prime you're going to be facing your starting rotation likely on their decline.

That's why I have no qualms with dealing someone like Baez if it nets you Strasburg for example(would take more but he'd obviously be the big get). If FA can get you over the hump then so be it but you very very rarely find long term answers there and we're just tipping what hopefully will be a long term run of talent. Sure trading a player like Baez costs you something but you're also not having to deal with years 4-7 on some contracts of FA where the player underperforms his pay. That has value. You'd also arguably be getting better years out of a 27-30 year old than a 30-33 or whatever year old.

That's my take on the situation. I'm not saying they have to trade Baez in particular. However, you've built so much talent in the minors and you're simply not going to be able to use all of it. Take Bryant as an example. If he does eventually end up in the OF then what? You have Bryant, Soler, Alcantara, Almora, and likely Schwarber just as prospects to fit for 3 position not to mention guys behind them like McKinney and Eloy as well as guys still to be drafted/signed. Hell, would it even be that bad if you ended up with someone like Villanueva at 3B? Let's say for the sake of argument he ends up something like a .248/.310/.385(what he hit in AA) hitter with good defense at 3B and say 15 HRs. Is that an All-Star? Probably not. Is it significantly worse than the .279/.324/.415 with 16 HRs that Pablo Sandoval hit when winning a title this year? No. Point here being you don't have to have an all star at every position in order to win a championship.

I dont disagree, problem is i doubt any team would be willing to deal away a young TOR pitcher. ..
IMO, i think its easier to get a young solid bat then a young TOR starter..

 

[czman]

Truly, thats what you should expect or hope for. Not being a dick but landing just 1 is a huge step forward. 30 and 31 with the innings they have is scary. Lester to me is less scary because he doesnt rely on the hard stuff.

No way. I think Lester is pushing the innings, but not Scherzer. Scherzer has 100+ fewer innings than Kershaw and Garza. I think a 6 year deal for Scherzer would be fine Yes the last 2 years he will be in decline, but that will be year 5 and 6 of the deal. What will an average pitcher cost 5 years from now? If the CUbs make the value the contract steady they will not handicapped by his deal going forward. He probably has 4 seasons before he hits 2000 innings pitched. From what I understand 1500-2000 is where player start to lose velocity. He is a big guy too, so he may last a little longer.

I would like to see the Cubs get both Lester and Scherzer, but I don't see that happening. If they are only going to get one, I will take the younger, better, pitcher with fewer innings.

 

[czman]

People are being fairly short sighted when they talk about acquiring pitchers in my opinion. If the cubs sign Lester fine. But I don't think you make a habit of signing 30 year olds when your prime group of players is 25 and below. Lester would be a stop gap to keep them competitive(to an extent) now and help replace what they lost in Shark. However, if you're talking about actually improving the team for when it matters you shouldn't be thinking Hamels, Peavy, Price, Lester, Shields...etc. You should be thinking about ways to acquire someone like Strasburg or Latos or someone in that age range. If you stick with the FA plan for pitching the next two years, by the time those position players arguably hit their prime you're going to be facing your starting rotation likely on their decline.

That's why I have no qualms with dealing someone like Baez if it nets you Strasburg for example(would take more but he'd obviously be the big get). If FA can get you over the hump then so be it but you very very rarely find long term answers there and we're just tipping what hopefully will be a long term run of talent. Sure trading a player like Baez costs you something but you're also not having to deal with years 4-7 on some contracts of FA where the player underperforms his pay. That has value. You'd also arguably be getting better years out of a 27-30 year old than a 30-33 or whatever year old.

No one is being short sighted, we are being realistic. Baez is not going to net you Strasburg, 27 year old stud pitchers don't come on the market very often, almost never. Teams have to get what they can realistically get. If the Cubs want young pitching they need to draft it. That is how you get a 27 year old stud. You draft and they wait years.

 

[beckdawg]

No one is being short sighted, we are being realistic. Baez is not going to net you Strasburg, 27 year old stud pitchers don't come on the market very often, almost never. Teams have to get what they can realistically get. If the Cubs want young pitching they need to draft it. That is how you get a 27 year old stud. You draft and they wait years.

Tell that to the Nats who got Gio or the Reds who got Latos as pre-prime pitchers within the last 5 years. Or hell even for that matter Anibal Sanchez in Detroit. It happens way more than you're making it out to be. Is Clayton Kershaw going on the block? Almost certainly no but that doesn't mean you can't find quality starters via trade at sub-30 ages.

 

[czman]

Tell that to the Nats who got Gio or the Reds who got Latos as pre-prime pitchers within the last 5 years. Or hell even for that matter Anibal Sanchez in Detroit. It happens way more than you're making it out to be. Is Clayton Kershaw going on the block? Almost certainly no but that doesn't mean you can't find quality starters via trade at sub-30 ages.

So a few times every 5 years is not realistic? OK....

There are a lot more 28-31 that hit FA that are available. So one is highly more likely than the other. Again no one is being short sighted. People are being realistic.

 

[chibears55]

Tell that to the Nats who got Gio or the Reds who got Latos as pre-prime pitchers within the last 5 years. Or hell even for that matter Anibal Sanchez in Detroit. It happens way more than you're making it out to be. Is Clayton Kershaw going on the block? Almost certainly no but that doesn't mean you can't find quality starters via trade at sub-30 ages.

I believe all 3 have 1 thing in common and that is they all got traded from a low market team before they hit FA or high payday via ARB..

Yea it can happen, just dont see those type being available any time soon unless im missing someone.

 

[JimJohnson]

Take a pass on Stras. The last thing this franchise needs is another pitcher with arm problems.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

No one is being short sighted, we are being realistic. Baez is not going to net you Strasburg, 27 year old stud pitchers don't come on the market very often, almost never. Teams have to get what they can realistically get. If the Cubs want young pitching they need to draft it. That is how you get a 27 year old stud. You draft and they wait years.

The Cubs hope they find that pitcher but they've done it in the draft with quantity not quality. With their first draft of Almora they went the direction of exploiting the market inequity of hitting instead of blue chip pitching. They've planned all along to pay for it and take opportunities when available which is why they e tried to get Tanaka and before that Sanchez. If a young pitcher crosses their radar they will try. If not they'll work at developing diamonds in the rough, pick up former blue chip prospects who had fallen on hard times (Arietta, Jacob Turner) and pay for free agents. This is the path they've chosen and looks like it could work.

 

[beckdawg]

I believe all 3 have 1 thing in common and that is they all got traded from a low market team before they hit FA or high payday via ARB..

Yea it can happen, just dont see those type being available any time soon unless im missing someone.

A fairly premium pitcher has basically been traded every offseason for the past 5+ years. Sometimes it's someone more like Halladay who's a bit older. However, even its more of a solid #2 like I would suggest Gio was, I'd rather take him in a trade rather than signing someone like Shields this offseason. Either way, if you're not seeing people who might be available I don't think you're looking all that hard. Take for example Oakland. If they bomb out next year Parker and Griffen could easily become available at the trade deadline. Hell, Beane could potentially even look to move Gray because after next season it's going to be lean. Tampa could also get pretty lean pretty fast with the loss of AF and Maddon. Matt Moore might become available. Chris Archer and Alex Cobb might also apply there. The Reds have roughly 60% of their 2014 payroll committed to 5 players(Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Bailey and someone else) with Cueto and Latos being 2015 FAs. Who knows when the Marlins go payroll crazy and deal Stanton/Fernandez. The Nationals have a lot of quality pitchers and Strasburg/Zimmerman are soon to be FA. Tying up so much boney between Gio, Zimmerman and Strasburg might not be something they want to do.

Clearly that's all speculation but to suggest there wont be anyone like I've suggested available again seems pretty short sighted to me. Do I think you're going to acquire a top 10 pitcher via trade? No but then Lester in my opinion isn't a top 10 pitcher either.

 

[chibears55]

A fairly premium pitcher has basically been traded every offseason for the past 5+ years. Sometimes it's someone more like Halladay who's a bit older. However, even its more of a solid #2 like I would suggest Gio was, I'd rather take him in a trade rather than signing someone like Shields this offseason. Either way, if you're not seeing people who might be available I don't think you're looking all that hard. Take for example Oakland. If they bomb out next year Parker and Griffen could easily become available at the trade deadline. Hell, Beane could potentially even look to move Gray because after next season it's going to be lean. Tampa could also get pretty lean pretty fast with the loss of AF and Maddon. Matt Moore might become available. Chris Archer and Alex Cobb might also apply there. The Reds have roughly 60% of their 2014 payroll committed to 5 players(Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Bailey and someone else) with Cueto and Latos being 2015 FAs. Who knows when the Marlins go payroll crazy and deal Stanton/Fernandez. The Nationals have a lot of quality pitchers and Strasburg/Zimmerman are soon to be FA. Tying up so much boney between Gio, Zimmerman and Strasburg might not be something they want to do.

Clearly that's all speculation but to suggest there wont be anyone like I've suggested available again seems pretty short sighted to me. Do I think you're going to acquire a top 10 pitcher via trade? No but then Lester in my opinion isn't a top 10 pitcher either.

I know there been decent pitchers traded in off seasons but we were discussing 25 - 28 YO TOR type starters..

When i said i dont see any of those type available, i meant now for this off season. ..


Could one become available at deadline or next off season? Sure, but there just as much chance one dont..
Its very rare for that to happen


For the record i personally don't want either Sheild or Peavy

 

[beckdawg]

I know there been decent pitchers traded in off seasons but we were discussing 25 - 28 YO TOR type starters..

When i said i dont see any of those type available, i meant now for this off season. ..


Could one become available at deadline or next off season? Sure, but there just as much chance one dont..
Its very rare for that to happen


For the record i personally don't want either Sheild or Peavy

Well perhaps I was unclear and if so that's my fault. I didn't meant to imply that there will for sure be someone this offseason to trade for just that if they don't get Lester just like they didn't get Tanaka that it isn't the end of the world. There's other options out there in 2016 and beyond.

 

[JimJohnson]

For the record i personally don't want either Sheild or Peavy

We agree here. These 2 guys are not going to get the Cubs to the promised land, and by promised land I don't mean the first round of the playoffs. It's been showing that dominant pitching wins and the Cubs need to get a 1-2-3 combo that can be shut down. I think Arriata can be that #3 guy. Now the Cubs need to go find the other 2.

Like I said earlier, I think some people are too hung up on tying up too much money in a couple of top starting pitchers. There really aren't any other options, that's what needs to happen. Our payroll is significantly smaller than similar size market teams (Boston, LA). We can spend with those guys and since we have cheap hitters right now, there is no reason why we can't go our buy a couple of all-star pitchers.

 

[chibears55]

We agree here. These 2 guys are not going to get the Cubs to the promised land, and by promised land I don't mean the first round of the playoffs. It's been showing that dominant pitching wins and the Cubs need to get a 1-2-3 combo that can be shut down. I think Arriata can be that #3 guy. Now the Cubs need to go find the other 2.

Like I said earlier, I think some people are too hung up on tying up too much money in a couple of top starting pitchers. There really aren't any other options, that's what needs to happen. Our payroll is significantly smaller than similar size market teams (Boston, LA). We can spend with those guys and since we have cheap hitters right now, there is no reason why we can't go our buy a couple of all-star pitchers.

That my thinking. .. their going to have what... 5,6,7 yrs of team control on their core position players to where their salary going to be somewhat reasonable. .

Why not strengthen the rotation and go after the top 2 starters on the market today and theyd still be able to sign price next year and have payroll at a reasonable amount under 150..

 

[JimJohnson]

That my thinking. .. their going to have what... 5,6,7 yrs of team control on their core position players to where their salary going to be somewhat reasonable. .

Why not strengthen the rotation and go after the top 2 starters on the market today and theyd still be able to sign price next year and have payroll at a reasonable amount under 150..

Yup. I can tell you that Theo didn't come here to run a small market team. He probably agreed to do that during the rebuild with expectations that they would spend with the big dogs once the lineup came into place. Dude is going to spend some money.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That my thinking. .. their going to have what... 5,6,7 yrs of team control on their core position players to where their salary going to be somewhat reasonable. .

Why not strengthen the rotation and go after the top 2 starters on the market today and theyd still be able to sign price next year and have payroll at a reasonable amount under 150..

Because they don't have the money yet. The way the sale of team was done and the debt structure the Cubs are relatively cash poor and don't forget they have spent an extraordinary amount of money on Spring Training facilities, Latin American Facilities and organizational infrastructure. Now that being said they do have a fair amount to spend this year because the supposedly underspent by $20 million in 2014 and with the signage and jumbotron going up for next season the revenues will rise and so will the payroll. The real increase will come in 2019 as some of the young players gave to start getting paid. I think what Theo is thinking here is not so much that they can't spend right now but that they have to watch how much. Let's say in a hypothetical they signed Scherzer, Lester and Russell Martin right now. That's probably $70 million ($30 mil for Scherzer, $27 mil for Lester and $13 mil for Russell) and even if you think the current obligations are the estimated low end factoring in arbitration, the number I've heard more often than not is $44 million, your talking about $114 million for 2015 which is probably $20 million over budget and they e their entire savings cushion. That's all well and good but they still don't know what all the kids can do yet. They don't know if Schwarber is a catcher, if Bryant will stay at 3B or if Baez or Alcantara can play at all. When Theo says they will spend without sacrificing the plan I think this is what he means. They still need answers before committing so much long term money and they feel confident some of those answers will come in 2015. They lost on purpose for three years in order to set this all up as a long term, sustainable winning ball club so why would they get ahead of themselves this year when they still only have incomplete information? I think they're ahead of their own plan and are trying not to jump the gun on their competition window. That doesn't mean they can't compete in 2015 but it may mean Lester is the one stud signing and then maybe you pick up McCarth or Liriano in 2 year deals to round out the staff. Then next year after you they see how it all shakes out, the advertising revenue kicks in and the plan is clearer well then you go hog wild and fill in the pieces. We've waited too long for this to be half assed. We have the manager now and the rumor is that Theo's going be extended this week so that his and Maddon 's contracts line up. That sounds like executive incentive to me and I think it'll get done. If the product us better and the arrow is up in 2015 I'm happy. If they hamstring themselves Hendry style and have to watch the budget ridiculously close in the competition window I won't be.

 

[DewsSox79]

We agree here. These 2 guys are not going to get the Cubs to the promised land, and by promised land I don't mean the first round of the playoffs. It's been showing that dominant pitching wins and the Cubs need to get a 1-2-3 combo that can be shut down. I think Arriata can be that #3 guy. Now the Cubs need to go find the other 2.

Like I said earlier, I think some people are too hung up on tying up too much money in a couple of top starting pitchers. There really aren't any other options, that's what needs to happen. Our payroll is significantly smaller than similar size market teams (Boston, LA). We can spend with those guys and since we have cheap hitters right now, there is no reason why we can't go our buy a couple of all-star pitchers.

cheap unproven hitters. you may need the allocation for the specs that dont pan out. if you think they all will than you are delusional.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

Because they don't have the money yet. The way the sale of team was done and the debt structure the Cubs are relatively cash poor and don't forget they have spent an extraordinary amount of money on Spring Training facilities, Latin American Facilities and organizational infrastructure. Now that being said they do have a fair amount to spend this year because the supposedly underspent by $20 million in 2014 and with the signage and jumbotron going up for next season the revenues will rise and so will the payroll. The real increase will come in 2019 as some of the young players gave to start getting paid. I think what Theo is thinking here is not so much that they can't spend right now but that they have to watch how much. Let's say in a hypothetical they signed Scherzer, Lester and Russell Martin right now. That's probably $70 million ($30 mil for Scherzer, $27 mil for Lester and $13 mil for Russell) and even if you think the current obligations are the estimated low end factoring in arbitration, the number I've heard more often than not is $44 million, your talking about $114 million for 2015 which is probably $20 million over budget and they e their entire savings cushion. That's all well and good but they still don't know what all the kids can do yet. They don't know if Schwarber is a catcher, if Bryant will stay at 3B or if Baez or Alcantara can play at all. When Theo says they will spend without sacrificing the plan I think this is what he means. They still need answers before committing so much long term money and they feel confident some of those answers will come in 2015. They lost on purpose for three years in order to set this all up as a long term, sustainable winning ball club so why would they get ahead of themselves this year when they still only have incomplete information? I think they're ahead of their own plan and are trying not to jump the gun on their competition window. That doesn't mean they can't compete in 2015 but it may mean Lester is the one stud signing and then maybe you pick up McCarth or Liriano in 2 year deals to round out the staff. Then next year after you they see how it all shakes out, the advertising revenue kicks in and the plan is clearer well then you go hog wild and fill in the pieces. We've waited too long for this to be half assed. We have the manager now and the rumor is that Theo's going be extended this week so that his and Maddon 's contracts line up. That sounds like executive incentive to me and I think it'll get done. If the product us better and the arrow is up in 2015 I'm happy. If they hamstring themselves Hendry style and have to watch the budget ridiculously close in the competition window I won't be.

first I just want to say again, im not saying they should sign both lester and scherzer, just that I think they could if they wanted to..

next, they will be dumb if they sign 32 YO Russell martin and even dumber if they gave him 13 mil and start him over castillo...
the guy had a career year hitting .290 during his FA year while playing on a playoff team.. previous 5 years .226, .211, .237, .248, .250
I would rather take my chances and spend that money elsewhere on Castillo bounching back from a down year, which was only his 2nd full season as a starter.


as far as payroll goes and their budget, not sure if you looked at commited payroll for this year and next 5.. it goes from 30 down to 7mil in 2020

having a reasonable payroll for the next 6 years wont be hard to do and by reasonable Im talking where they could have it up to 150 by 2020..

the cubs payroll was at 94 mil in 2014, they could get their payroll up to 115 this year without worrying about the Zell deal..

also as far as the top prospects / core players goes rizzo, castro and soler are already commited til 2020..
baez, Russell , Bryant will all be under team control for the next 5 plus years.. isn't that the reason why their holding Bryant down, so they can control him for 7 yrs ?


I wouldn't be to concerned about the cubs and money going forward, they've set themselves up pretty good with piecing together a young cost control core group of players and now with revenue coming in with the rehab and TV deal.. they can afford to up payroll a bit and sign a couple high priced starters if they want to. they can always backload that money..

 

[chibears55]

cheap unproven hitters. you may need the allocation for the specs that dont pan out. if you think they all will than you are delusional.
Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

right now position player wise there only 4 specs that I care about and that baez, soler, Bryant, and Russell.. to me their the main core going forward for this team..

Alcantara, I think will eventually get traded or wind up being a utility guy

Baez, needs to prove himself

Soler, started off good, needs to show he for real

Russell, I think they hold him down til 2016 like they did with Bryant but ive been wrong before..

Bryant, I personally think he just a natural hitter and will be a quality major leaguer

so, your right they don't all pan out but the cubs right now just need baez, soler,Bryant, and eventually Russell to pan out for them ..
anyone else that comes up in the next couple years and pans out will be gravy on their mash potatoes...

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

This off-season, I think the Cubs will sign Lester, a left hand relief pitcher (Miller, Duke, or Gregerson), and a veteran outfielder.

 

[TL1961]

Seems a lot of people are looking for a veteran OF, most likely for LF.

But I saw today that only 20 OF had an OPS >.800 in 2014, and Coghlan was one of them.

If the right guy was available, I could see an acquisition, but i don't know who that might be. Melky Cabrera or nelson Cruz to be a starter? Seems unlikely, as the price tag would be high, and the contract likely too long.

I don't believe there are any CF's worth looking at, and I personally want Alcantara to be given first shot at retaining that position.

Soler in RF is a no-brainer.

I do think they need depth/insurance in the OF. Don't have a real good guess on who it may be.