An interesting article about teams with rebuilding/ownership changes and salary.

[beckdawg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-will-the-astros-start-spending-on-the-major-league-payroll/

I really like the link to the visualization of salaries. It's interesting to see that the 2010 peak consists of mostly 8 players(Soriano, Dempster, Zambrano, Ramirez, Fukudome, Lee, Silva, Lilly) making $122 million of the almost $150 million. They seem to have left out the $13 mil the cubs ate for Zambrano in 2012. And of the ~$32 million in difference between the two years, Pena and Fukudome were $25 million of that.

You can also see where they are building toward. In 2014 they currently have Castro, Rizzo, Jackson, Villenuva and Kyuji Fujikawa under contract as well as eating $13 mil for Soriano. Next year they have a base of close to $40 mil before arbitration and FA. So, assuming they grow from this years payroll, you're talking $50-60 million in money that will be available to them.

The general trend tends to be 3-4 years after the bottom until spending returns to previous highs. I doubt the cubs get to the $150 mil peak in that time frame but I think $130 million by 2016 seems entirely plausible.

 

[waldo7239117]

Yeah it's possible, but it has to be the right players. And looking at the upcoming free agent classes, no player sticks out of whom the Cubs may go all out for.

 

[beckdawg]

Yeah it's possible, but it has to be the right players. And looking at the upcoming free agent classes, no player sticks out of whom the Cubs may go all out for.

Doesn't have to be an external player. They can buy out arbitration years on Baez/Bryant/whomever if they show they are ready for the majors. They can bring back Shark. Surely there will be some FAs though. Personally, I've said before I really hope they take an approach similar to the way the cardinals have. The cards rarely if ever go after top FAs but instead try to find cheap values to replace there needs they can't replace in their farm system. For example, they lose pujols and pick up Beltran.

 

[DewsSox79]

the cards seem like blueprint for success. id love to copy that. a lot of cardinal haters will say "zomfgzz teh cardszzz are just teh luckyszz" after a while some have to admit they may just be doing it right.

 

[waldo7239117]

Doesn't have to be an external player. They can buy out arbitration years on Baez/Bryant/whomever if they show they are ready for the majors. They can bring back Shark. Surely there will be some FAs though. Personally, I've said before I really hope they take an approach similar to the way the cardinals have. The cards rarely if ever go after top FAs but instead try to find cheap values to replace there needs they can't replace in their farm system. For example, they lose pujols and pick up Beltran.

Oh yeah the Cubs will do that, but it won't be big contracts in which will raise the Cubs payroll a lot like the Dodgers did. Contracts like Rizzo and Castro I csn totally see. Baez and Bryant and other prospects are ways away from getting a contract. If Samardzija wants more than 50 million, trade him! To me, 50 million is still too much.

 

[JosMin]

the cards seem like blueprint for success. id love to copy that. a lot of cardinal haters will say "zomfgzz teh cardszzz are just teh luckyszz" after a while some have to admit they may just be doing it right.

Scouting well both in the US and internationally, spending huge money on player development, drafting a cache of power arms and guys with projectable tools out of the box, keeping your own talent in house and only resorting to trading for players or filling a hole VIA free agency if there isn't a replacement in-house..... sounds about right to me. They and Tampa are the most well-run franchises in baseball.

But for some reason there are still people who'd rather just see the team dump a huge wad of money in a fairly shallow free agency class. Let's do that instead!

 

[waldo7239117]

Fans, want to see your team drop big cash on big-time players just to see them on your team. But if you look back at it, it's smart not to do so. Just look at a few players who are not worth their money ... Hamilton, Pujols, Sabathia, Santana, Texieria, AROD, CC and the list goes on and on.

Yes I would like to see big FA signings, but I don't want the Cubs to do so. It usually will come back and bite you in the ass. Fans don't have paitence anymore as the drought is forever. But it was time for the Cubs to go in a new direction and I likie what the Cubs are doing a lot.

 

[Boobaby1]

Fans, want to see your team drop big cash on big-time players just to see them on your team. But if you look back at it, it's smart not to do so. Just look at a few players who are not worth their money ... Hamilton, Pujols, Sabathia, Santana, Texieria, AROD, CC and the list goes on and on.
Yes I would like to see big FA signings, but I don't want the Cubs to do so. It usually will come back and bite you in the ass. Fans don't have paitence anymore as the drought is forever. But it was time for the Cubs to go in a new direction and I likie what the Cubs are doing a lot.

And out of that list, their are multiple WS appearances and winners too. Yeah, you can point to Pujols and Hamilton now, but don't forget that they were getting paid handsomely and appearing in World Series' prior to their most recent contract.

If the Halos didn't step in, Pujols would still be a Cardinal and the Cardinals would still be winning. Miggy Cabrera, Verlander, and Fielder also make big money, and have also appeared in the show. The Dodgers are looking okay at the moment too, so don't think just because you spend some money means it cripples your team because it doesn't.

The odds are greatly in your favor of getting to the World Series if you have a few high priced players. There is a reason why more often than not, big market teams make the show and the smaller market teams don't. opcorn:

 

[waldo7239117]

Yeah I guess, but the contracts would come back to bite them in the ass (like they are now). I guess you can buy a WS, which these teams have/trying. I would rather a team win the WS from the bottom and not by money. It's more fun and a way better story.

 

[Jntg4]

Yeah I guess, but the contracts would come back to bite them in the ass (like they are now). I guess you can buy a WS, which these teams have/trying. I would rather a team win the WS from the bottom and not by money. It's more fun and a way better story.

If we win the World Series, and then have contracts bite us in the ass later, we still won the World Series... I will take that any day.

 

[brett05]

If you win. It's worth it

 

[nwfisch]

Scouting well both in the US and internationally, spending huge money on player development, drafting a cache of power arms and guys with projectable tools out of the box, keeping your own talent in house and only resorting to trading for players or filling a hole VIA free agency if there isn't a replacement in-house..... sounds about right to me. They and Tampa are the most well-run franchises in baseball.

But for some reason there are still people who'd rather just see the team dump a huge wad of money in a fairly shallow free agency class. Let's do that instead!

Yeah, but then again we have fans who are accepting the Cubs acting like Oakland, KC, and Pittsburgh in the FA market as well.

FYI, we don't win titles for least dollars spent per win, we win titles by acquiring star players, some of which may be in the minors now, and some of it may be on other MLB rosters now. Overpaying happens, and some SABR heads lose their mind at that concept, but it does happen, even on WS champions. I don't think the Giants win without Posey, but I also believe they don't win without Zito.

It's easier to build a WS winner, than a team that costs the least dollars per win.

 

[beckdawg]

Yeah, but then again we have fans who are accepting the Cubs acting like Oakland, KC, and Pittsburgh in the FA market as well.

FYI, we don't win titles for least dollars spent per win, we win titles by acquiring star players, some of which may be in the minors now, and some of it may be on other MLB rosters now. Overpaying happens, and some SABR heads lose their mind at that concept, but it does happen, even on WS champions. I don't think the Giants win without Posey, but I also believe they don't win without Zito.

It's easier to build a WS winner, than a team that costs the least dollars per win.

In my opinion, you don't use FA to acquire star players. You use it to supplement your current roster. And by that I mean, if you don't have a core group of young guys, it's probably a mistake to go hard in FAs. I feel that's the mistake a lot of clubs make. Take the Angels as an example. They have Trout and Trumbo and to a lessor extent Weaver but what else? They've built the majority of their roster on players who are 30+ in age. What often happens is those player regress or get injured more because of their advanced age. It's possible to make that sort of approach work if you have enough money to continually throw at it. That's what the yankees did. When a player past there window they would pay someone else to take the player away and then buy a new vet. It's not very efficient but it can be done if you have enough money.

However, if you don't have the players and step back for a year or two you can often have another sustained run. A lot of teams seem to make poor choices trying to win every year and trade away quality young players to do so along with having bad FA contracts. This seems to be the case of the Angels.

 

[waldo7239117]

Well as a Cubs fan, anyone would take anyway to win ... so that does make sense.

 

[SilenceS]

There is no perfect plan to build a team. It takes a mixture of young and vets. It takes the right players to mesh. It takes a little luck and a lot of skill. To say one way or another to build a team is frivolous to me because it has been done so many different ways and success has been achieved.

 

[brett05]

I thought it was interesting reading in the Tribune that a real question was proposed that if the Cubs currently had any core pieces on the team considering the play of Jeff, Starlin, and Anthony.

 

[SilenceS]

I thought it was interesting reading in the Tribune that a real question was proposed that if the Cubs currently had any core pieces on the team considering the play of Jeff, Starlin, and Anthony.

I would give it more than a year. This is Castro's first big time struggle. Rizzo should get better. I don't think he will ever be what some Cubs fans thought he would be, but he is a major league player. Shark seems to not give a shit anymore after they traded all those players again. He was not happy about it and hasn't performed to well since it. I wouldn't worry so much about him. He is under control and has still really good stuff.

 

[brett05]

Oh I am not saying that those three aren't cornerstones. But I definitely think its a valud discussion to be having.

 

[waldo7239117]

To me, all 3 are putting too much pressure on themself (besides Jeff maybe) as they have to show since3 they're the future. I think when we start seeing other players, we'l then see their potential. But Castro should leadoff next year in my opinion. That's where he has proven to do the best.

 

[SilenceS]

To me, all 3 are putting too much pressure on themself (besides Jeff maybe) as they have to show since3 they're the future. I think when we start seeing other players, we'l then see their potential. But Castro should leadoff next year in my opinion. That's where he has proven to do the best.

I agree with Castro batting lead off. I have been very adamant about him being there. He seems more comfortable. Not all first hitters need to draw a lot of walks. A high average and decent OBP will work he also could provide some pop there. I think rizzo should become the 2 hitter once the cubs bring up some of those big bats. This would be my ideal lineup in 2015. Castro. Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Soler, alcantara, Castillo, Szczur/ almora. This could change with with an addition of choo or another left handed bat. The cubs are going to need one. But, to start next year even if they got choo. I would still leave castro in the one and see where he goes.