An interesting article about teams with rebuilding/ownership changes and salary.

[waldo7239117]

Yeah Castro has a good reputation as a leadoff hitter. Plus he's been taking pitches and walks too. So I've liked what I've seen from Castro lately, among a lot of other people. Plus his defense has looked good this year and better as of late. Besides that mental laspe, he hasn't looked too bad.

 

[dabynsky]

the cards seem like blueprint for success. id love to copy that. a lot of cardinal haters will say "zomfgzz teh cardszzz are just teh luckyszz" after a while some have to admit they may just be doing it right.

I've been saying that the Cards are what the Cubs should model themselves after for quite a while. I am guessing you are point to me as one of those who says they are lucky which completely misrepresented the point at the time. Anyways, yes I want the Cubs to be the Cardinals.

 

[beckdawg]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't get why people are so down on Rizzo. He's only 24 and has basically been on pace for 25+ HRs and 70+ RBIs for two straight years. While his average is down, his walks are actually up from last year which has lead to his OBP dipping only 12 points vs his average which is down 53 points. His BABIP is down quite a bit from league average(45 points). He's probably more of a .250-260 hitter. I also don't see him as the #2 hitter some have. I think he's more of a 5 on a good team. In time he probably has the potential to be a 25-30 HR 90-100 RBI guy. There's no reason to believe it wont happen because he's already on pace for the HRs and assuming the cubs ever get better offensive players the RBIs will follow.

Castro is much more of a worry to me. His OBP has steadily gone down every year he's been in the majors. He's walking less than any time in his career this year. His BABIP is sitting at .290. That is potentially low for a guy with his tool set but the point is he's not any where as "unlucky" as Rizzo has been. And even when Castro was hitting, the numbers are still worrying. He's really not that much better than Jed Lowrie.

If Baez shows the potential to play SS defensively I think Castro might be on his way out. To put things into perspective, the D-backs traded Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorius before the season. Bauer was ranked as the #28th prospect by fangraphs to start the season. Castro even while slumping is a better player than Gregorius. Castro is already cost controlled as well. Bauer's top end is a #2 starter. Frankly, if you can get a #2 starter for Castro and if Baez can play SS I don't see any reason you wouldn't move him. That then leaves 3B open to Olt or Bryant and 2B can still be Lake/Alcantra depending on who develops.

 

[SilenceS]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't get why people are so down on Rizzo. He's only 24 and has basically been on pace for 25+ HRs and 70+ RBIs for two straight years. While his average is down, his walks are actually up from last year which has lead to his OBP dipping only 12 points vs his average which is down 53 points. His BABIP is down quite a bit from league average(45 points). He's probably more of a .250-260 hitter. I also don't see him as the #2 hitter some have. I think he's more of a 5 on a good team. In time he probably has the potential to be a 25-30 HR 90-100 RBI guy. There's no reason to believe it wont happen because he's already on pace for the HRs and assuming the cubs ever get better offensive players the RBIs will follow.

Castro is much more of a worry to me. His OBP has steadily gone down every year he's been in the majors. He's walking less than any time in his career this year. His BABIP is sitting at .290. That is potentially low for a guy with his tool set but the point is he's not any where as "unlucky" as Rizzo has been. And even when Castro was hitting, the numbers are still worrying. He's really not that much better than Jed Lowrie.

If Baez shows the potential to play SS defensively I think Castro might be on his way out. To put things into perspective, the D-backs traded Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorius before the season. Bauer was ranked as the #28th prospect by fangraphs to start the season. Castro even while slumping is a better player than Gregorius. Castro is already cost controlled as well. Bauer's top end is a #2 starter. Frankly, if you can get a #2 starter for Castro and if Baez can play SS I don't see any reason you wouldn't move him. That then leaves 3B open to Olt or Bryant and 2B can still be Lake/Alcantra depending on who develops.

Who is down on Rizzo? I think he should in the 2 because of his walks. There are articles about putting one of your best hitters in the 2 spot. Rizzo power is not as high as Baez and Bryant. Rizzo has his issues that numbers do not say. His BABIP is low because he doesn't make hard contact consistently. He rolls over and pops way to much for his BAPIP to normalize. Rizzo should be looked as the next LaRoche with still a ton of potential. Not everyone is a star. Castro has proven himself numerous seasons. Rizzo hasn't. I don't know how people worry about Castro more. Castro was changed by staff to be a completely different hitter. Rizzo was not. Rizzo has problems but I don't think he cant fix him.

Now, for people relying on Olt. I would get over that. The guy has serious issues. Hope he works out of them but even if he gets back. He still would have issues.

 

[beckdawg]

Who is down on Rizzo? I think he should in the 2 because of his walks. There are articles about putting one of your best hitters in the 2 spot. Rizzo power is not as high as Baez and Bryant. Rizzo has his issues that numbers do not say. His BABIP is low because he doesn't make hard contact consistently. He rolls over and pops way to much for his BAPIP to normalize. Rizzo should be looked as the next LaRoche with still a ton of potential. Not everyone is a star. Castro has proven himself numerous seasons. Rizzo hasn't. I don't know how people worry about Castro more. Castro was changed by staff to be a completely different hitter. Rizzo was not. Rizzo has problems but I don't think he cant fix him.

Now, for people relying on Olt. I would get over that. The guy has serious issues. Hope he works out of them but even if he gets back. He still would have issues.

The media I guess in ref to who's down on him. As for his line up position, you typically put a guy with better speed in the 2 hole. If you're going to rely on his OBP maybe put him in the 3 hole with presumably Baez and Bryant in the 4/5 holes.

I assume you're talking about Adam LaRoche as the other has no where near the numbers. If so I'd say he's already that good.
LaRoche's average season - 73 runs 25 HRs 86 RBI 9.7% walk rate, 22.2% K rate .210 ISO .305 BABIP .264 avg .336 OBP .475 SLG .346 wOBA 111 wRC+
Rizzo this season(with 26 games remaining) - 64 runs 21HRs 72 RBIs 11.4% walk rate, 18.6% K rate .197 ISO .255 BABIP .232 avg .326 OBP .429 SLG .330 wOBA 105 wRC+

So, I think the floor on Rizzo is LaRoache. His upside is harder to project. There's not a lot of power hitters who have a 11.4% walk rate. It's not too bold to suggest that Rizzo could easily develop into what Bautista is doing this year. He's currently at 82 runs 28 HRs 73 RBIs 13.1% walk rate 15.9% K rate .239 ISO .259 BABIP .259 avg .358 OBP .498 SLG .371 wOBA and 134 wRC+. If so, that basically would make him a top 15 power hitter in the league. It's a relatively short jump from where Rizzo currently is to those numbers.

As for Castro... I guess I'm just not that impressed. His average season thus far has been 66 runs 8 HRs 53 RBIs 5% walk rate 15.1% k rate .122 iso .324 BABIP .284 avg .323 OBP .406 SLG .318 wOBA 94 wRC+. Historically he's been a below average fielder(-10.7 Fld) and a slightly below average base runner(-1.7 BsR). Those numbers are basically Yunel Escobar or Eric Aybar only as a worse fielder. That's not to say those are bad players. But, they aren't exactly stars either. Also, there's not a ton of reasons for optimism that Castro will be better than that. And its not even like he can fall back on his fielding as that has been poor this year too.

If you're going to play Castro at 2B instead of Barney he's possibly a decent 2B who's cost controlled and you would expect his defense to matter less there. But honestly, at this point if I could get a potential #1 or #2 starter prospect for him I'd take it because there are guys in the system who probably as much potential at 2B as he does.