Appreciating Kyle Hendricks.

[beckdawg]

Out of curiosity you had me look something up with regard to Maddon. He seems to have a relatively short chain with young pitching.

Hellickson
2011 age 24 - 189.0 IP 29 starts ~6.5 innings per
2012 age 25 - 177.0 IP 31 starts ~5.7 innings per
2013 age 26 - 174.0 IP 32 starts ~5.4 innings per

Alex Cobb
2012 age 24 - 136.1 IP 23 starts ~5.9 innings per
2013 age 25 - 143.1 IP 22 starts ~6.5 innings per
2014 age 26 - 166.1 IP 27 starts ~6.1 innings per

Chris Archer
2013 age 24 - 128.2 IP 23 starts ~5.5 innings per
2014 age 25 - 194.2 IP 32 starts ~6 innings per

Jake Odorizzi
2014 age 24 - 168.0 IP 31 starts ~5.4 innings per

Matt Moore
2012 age 23 - 177.1 IP 31 starts ~5.7 innings per
2013 age 24 - 150.1 IP 27 starts ~5.5 innings per

Wade Davis
2010 age 24 - 168.0 IP 29 starts ~5.7 innings per
2011 age 25 - 185.0 IP 29 starts ~6.3 innings per

So that's a pretty decent chunk of young starters most of whom were in the 5.5 to 6 inning range which Hendricks at 5.6 fits into. Some of those pitchers are likely better prospects than Hendricks and some of the others listed but just thought I'd give an overall grouping to see. Also, I think you could make the argument that being in the NL actually encourages you to pull a starter sooner to get another bat in the line up where as there is less cost leaving a AL pitcher in because of the DH.

 

[beckdawg]

Yes, Kyle Hendricks is better than #3 starters on bad contracts on sub .500 teams.

And look at that, the Giants are 10 games back of the Cubs. Let's look at the teams you would project to be at the top of their division next year

New York: Syndegard
Washington: Zimmerman/Gonzalez
LA Dodgers: Ryu/McCarthy
San Francisco: Unknown
Pittsburgh: JA Happ/Unknown
St Louis: Martinez

Almost all of those guys are massively better than Kyle Hendricks and in cases where it's close, Pittsburgh has a significantly better bullpen while the Dodgers have two of the three best SP in the league and who knows, maybe they keep Grienke and get Zimmerman?. While Kyle Hendricks is a good #3 to get you through 162 game season, would you have any confidence in him beating top flight teams in a series 1-1 and/or on the road? What in Kyle's ability says that is his game? Again, this is an argument that's almost entirely based on stats that has little to do with scouting. While I more than appreciate good numbers, you can't just throw out the visual aspect of scouting a guy, seeing how the manager uses him, etc. And what's worse, Kyle has struggled with the better teams (his splits against sub/above 500 teams are two posts above) and the Cubs don't have a dominant bullpen to get the game over to (which a team like Pittsburgh has).

I don't mind Kyle Hendricks being the #3 if the Cubs went out and went and got a guy like Kimbrel and then added a top flight reliever like Storen or someone so that all Kyle has to do is get 6 innings. But i think you expect your #3 starter to be able to get you into the seventh or so with regularity if you don't have a bullpen like that and Kyle simply doesn't get the seventh with regularity.

I think you're sort of changing the topic here though. I mean of those teams sure I'd probably take Syndergaard, Martinez and Washington over Hendricks. I think the other 3 are closer than you're making it out. But that's honestly more a question of roster construction. The Mets have almost exclusively built around pitching to the point where finding a SS and CF is a continual issue with them. Like wise, Washington has dumped a significant portion of their salary pool in pitching leaving them less to spend on hitting and with Harper having the kind of year he is, they may lose both Zimmermann and Strausburg in the next couple of years to pay for Harper. On the other hand, the cubs have built around hitting and presently 7th in runs in the NL with so many young hitters. At that point it's a question of who do you favor hitting or pitching?

And again, I'm not saying the cubs shouldn't try to acquire more players. If the cubs have 2 better starters than Hendricks they easily lead the league in ERA. Hell, if they had 1 more starter better than Hendricks they might be at least close to the Cards. In either case that would be great. Honestly, 'all i'm trying to get across here is that I don't think some people are giving Hendricks enough value. Just talking to you I think you are a tad lower than me but I honestly think we are in a similar ball park. So, this topic isn't necessarily for you. It's more for those I've seen talking about him as a #5 in a competition to get the job.

 

[Bear Pride]

I obviously posted it as a joke, because IIRC you and I drove beckdawg nuts with the comparison last fall or early this year. I think he has started to figure things out late this season and I believe he can be a solid starter for the Cubs at the back end of the rotation for some time.

Yes, I realized you were joking. But I felt the need to reiterate the fact that he still reminds me of Maddox. Anyhow, I really thought he would pitch better this season. Having said that, I agree, I'm still happy with what's he's doing. He's a nice backend starter, imo, but as I said, hopefully he has to compete for that next year... as I think that means the Cubs rotation will be awesome.

 

[CSF77]

Yes, I realized you were joking. But I felt the need to reiterate the fact that he still reminds me of Maddox. Anyhow, I really thought he would pitch better this season. Having said that, I agree, I'm still happy with what's he's doing. He's a nice backend starter, imo, but as I said, hopefully he has to compete for that next year... as I think that means the Cubs rotation will be awesome.

Jake Arrieta: 2.39 Fip
Jon Lester: 2.92 Fip
Hendricks: 3.46 Fip
Hammel 3.68 Fip
Dan Haren 4.80 Fip

He is on par with Hammel at the age of 25. Hammel is 32 doing the same thing.

He is potentially better than Hammel. Who is a typical #4 in the league. So Hendricks could be a league #3 if he puts it all together.

 

[Bear Pride]

Jake Arrieta: 2.39 Fip
Jon Lester: 2.92 Fip
Hendricks: 3.46 Fip
Hammel 3.68 Fip
Dan Haren 4.80 Fip

He is on par with Hammel at the age of 25. Hammel is 32 doing the same thing.

He is potentially better than Hammel. Who is a typical #4 in the league. So Hendricks could be a league #3 if he puts it all together.

Or, the Cubs sign another TOR next year as well as another middle rotation pitcher. The he can compete for a 4th or 5th spot, and this would be good for the Cubs?