Atlantis Sports Book

[brett05]

What if Lackey is better than the Cubs #3 pitcher historically?

Touche!

 

[DanTown]

DT - but what if Adam is better than Lackey as he has been historically?

It doesn't matter that Wainright is historically better than Lackey, he has to be better than Lackey was and Lackey last year

33 starts
2.77 ERA
3.57 FIP
218 innings
1.211 WHIP
7.2 K/9
2.2 BB/9

Here is Wainright in 2014 (when he was 32 when he'll now be 34 and he doesn't have the same defense)

34 starts
2.38 ERA
2.88 FIP
227 innings
1.031 WHIP
7.1 K/9
2.0 BB/9

And here are Wainwright's predictions from STEAMER
31 starts
3.52 ERA
3.48 FIP
203 Innings
7.2 K/9
1.9 BB/9

Again, I think it would take quite a good year from Wainwright, without the same defense he's had in the past, to replicate his prime years at age 34 and match what Lackey gave them. And even then, they're solely REPLACING Lackey instead of adding to it. I mean, they're banking on a ton if they expect to have a FIP about .5 higher than their ERA again.

By just W/L, the Cubs were only 17-15 when Lester started yet they were 21-13 in games started by Richard/Haren/Wood/Wada/Beeler/Roach. Obviously, you'd expect that stat to normalize (Cubs win more games started by a pitcher of Lester's quality and lose more starts of games by those guys) in this year but the Cubs replaced that group with Lackey. If Lackey goes 20-13 in 33 starts, the Cubs get a little improvement from Lester that off-sets Arrieta and they win 97-99 games again.

 

[brett05]

It doesn't matter that Wainright is historically better than Lackey, he has to be better than Lackey was and Lackey last year

33 starts
2.77 ERA
3.57 FIP
218 innings
1.211 WHIP
7.2 K/9
2.2 BB/9

Here is Wainright in 2014 (when he was 32 when he'll now be 34 and he doesn't have the same defense)

34 starts
2.38 ERA
2.88 FIP
227 innings
1.031 WHIP
7.1 K/9
2.0 BB/9

And here are Wainwright's predictions from STEAMER
31 starts
3.52 ERA
3.48 FIP
203 Innings
7.2 K/9
1.9 BB/9

Again, I think it would take quite a good year from Wainwright, without the same defense he's had in the past, to replicate his prime years at age 34 and match what Lackey gave them. And even then, they're solely REPLACING Lackey instead of adding to it. I mean, they're banking on a ton if they expect to have a FIP about .5 higher than their ERA again.

By just W/L, the Cubs were only 17-15 when Lester started yet they were 21-13 in games started by Richard/Haren/Wood/Wada/Beeler/Roach. Obviously, you'd expect that stat to normalize (Cubs win more games started by a pitcher of Lester's quality and lose more starts of games by those guys) in this year but the Cubs replaced that group with Lackey. If Lackey goes 20-13 in 33 starts, the Cubs get a little improvement from Lester that off-sets Arrieta and they win 97-99 games again.

Lackey did worse with more age, so I see no reason to doubt Adam's ability.

 

[Boobaby1]

If the Cardinals get Wainwright and he's as good as Lackey was for them, that's a lateral move. They'll still have to replace Lynn (and while Leake may be that guy, he's never been THAT good) and they obviously will have to replace Heyward's production both offensively and defensively.

Also, their hitters are due some massive regression. Grichuk hit .276 with a 31.4% K rate and a .365 BABIP that is likely to regress. They simply don't have the roster or feel of a 90+ win ball club to me. If Grichuk regresses and Holliday is aged out of being a power hitter, I simply don't see their team hitting enough to cover what I think will be an average offense.

Also, important to remember, their FIP was .56 higher than their ERA. To compare, the Cubs had a lower FIP (3.30 to 3.48) but the Cubs gave up 83 more runs than the Cardinals.

We will find out about the Cardinals offense, but Grichuk has already put his over under total of HR's at 30. Piscotty is going to be a key also, much like Bryant is with the Cubs.

An outfield of Holiday, Grichuk, and Piscotty is sure to drive in some runs, and when you have some contact hitters like Carpenter, Wong and Molina, and the wildcard Peralta, they figure to probably put up a few runs.

The key area for the Cardinals will be what is at 1st base (Adams/Moss), and I bet if they are close to the hunt or anywhere near the top at the break, you will see the Cardinals pounce on a 1st basemen.

 

[Boobaby1]

It doesn't matter that Wainright is historically better than Lackey, he has to be better than Lackey was and Lackey last year

33 starts
2.77 ERA
3.57 FIP
218 innings
1.211 WHIP
7.2 K/9
2.2 BB/9

Here is Wainright in 2014 (when he was 32 when he'll now be 34 and he doesn't have the same defense)

34 starts
2.38 ERA
2.88 FIP
227 innings
1.031 WHIP
7.1 K/9
2.0 BB/9

And here are Wainwright's predictions from STEAMER
31 starts
3.52 ERA
3.48 FIP
203 Innings
7.2 K/9
1.9 BB/9

Again, I think it would take quite a good year from Wainwright, without the same defense he's had in the past, to replicate his prime years at age 34 and match what Lackey gave them. And even then, they're solely REPLACING Lackey instead of adding to it. I mean, they're banking on a ton if they expect to have a FIP about .5 higher than their ERA again.

By just W/L, the Cubs were only 17-15 when Lester started yet they were 21-13 in games started by Richard/Haren/Wood/Wada/Beeler/Roach. Obviously, you'd expect that stat to normalize (Cubs win more games started by a pitcher of Lester's quality and lose more starts of games by those guys) in this year but the Cubs replaced that group with Lackey. If Lackey goes 20-13 in 33 starts, the Cubs get a little improvement from Lester that off-sets Arrieta and they win 97-99 games again.

Lets also not forget that while it looked like the Cubs blew past the Cardinals in the playoffs, the Cardinals won 100 games and were basically without Wainright and Martinez, and had an injured Molina in the playoffs.

That would be tough for any team to absorb.

 

[DanTown]

Lets also not forget that while it looked like the Cubs blew past the Cardinals in the playoffs, the Cardinals won 100 games and were basically without Wainright and Martinez, and had an injured Molina in the playoffs.

That would be tough for any team to absorb.

They massively out preformed FIP in such a way that I simply don't know if I trust their team. Add in the fact I think Grichuk isn't ready to be a top 5 hitter and they have very little OBP after Carpenter, and I highly doubt Piscotty has another year where he has a BABIP in the 360s after a career minor league average closer to the low 300s.

I think a major reason they outpreformed FIP was Heyward and Molina, one of which is gone and another is hurt and seemingly breaking down with age.

I simply don't fear "the Cardinals" as much as everyone here does.