Bears have only 10% chance of winning a Super Bowl in the next 3 years says TheScore

BearFanJohn

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I think its really pretty simple. Either MT takes a step and shuts up the negative posters or he proves them right and the Bears have some decisions to make. I am fine with giving the guy this year to prove he has taken that "step". So, I won't make the choice to be negative. Ambivalent maybe. Cautiously optimistic.

I am not buying the Browns, Colts and Packers having a better chance than the Bears, either.
 

redgrange19

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Browns have talent....but they're the fucking Browns.
 

mecha

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Nagy has yet to be truly defeated by more than the last play of a game, a 2 TD 4th quarter, or a bounce here or there. If the Bears stay this hard to beat I'd say the true figure is between 10 and 25% somewhere. And yes...I think that is a very good and very high number given the competition of the NFL, and it would be way higher if Trubisky could throw left accurately.

this.

take away the flukey bad bounces of 3 games, they finish 15-1. even week 1 was bizarre, they dominated Rodgers worse than he probably ever has been, and still lost that game. Nagy did botch the playcalling against the Eagles though. had they won that game, I would say they had a chance at winning it all barring it was the Patriots still.

the Chiefs are going to be sick nasty for a long time, so I have to hope the rest of teams representing the AFC in the playoffs do what it takes to stop them. LOL
 

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That’s not how it works. Some teams (mostly teams with great QBs like New England, Kansas City and Houston) have better odds than others (mostly teams with shitty QBs like Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Giants)
giphy.gif
 

Raskolnikov

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this.

take away the flukey bad bounces of 3 games, they finish 15-1. even week 1 was bizarre, they dominated Rodgers worse than he probably ever has been, and still lost that game. Nagy did botch the playcalling against the Eagles though. had they won that game, I would say they had a chance at winning it all barring it was the Patriots still.

the Chiefs are going to be sick nasty for a long time, so I have to hope the rest of teams representing the AFC in the playoffs do what it takes to stop them. LOL

Thanks.

I really don't know what to make of the chiefs though. They have ignored the achilles heel defense for 3 years until now they have brought some fresh bodies in...only to lose Houston.

I don't believe in their defense, and I absolutely feel they are diminished without Hill and Hunt. Signs of Kelce slowing just a bit are evident. I am kinda confused to why they are viewed as taking a step forward when they have been at about the same level for 3 years and always find ways to disappoint in the playoffs...something that has been going on with Reid for 2 decades.
 

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I think its really pretty simple. Either MT takes a step and shuts up the negative posters or he proves them right and the Bears have some decisions to make. I am fine with giving the guy this year to prove he has taken that "step". So, I won't make the choice to be negative. Ambivalent maybe. Cautiously optimistic.

I am not buying the Browns, Colts and Packers having a better chance than the Bears, either.
Short a SB MVP perfromance, I don't think that will happen with a select few. They will claim he road the coat tails of the defense. MT took a giant stride in the right direction, was 11-3 in a new offense, and led his team to the playoffs for the first time in 7 yrs, yet CRM puts him in the same class as sexual molesting, finger eating , benched for Fitzmagic Jameis Winston and recently 3-12, 5-11 Manning version of Danny DeVito to Peyton Mannings Arnold from Twins as a "shitty" QB
 

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Short a SB MVP perfromance, I don't think that will happen with a select few. They will claim he road the coat tails of the defense. MT took a giant stride in the right direction, was 11-3 in a new offense, and led his team to the playoffs for the first time in 7 yrs, yet CRM puts him in the same class as sexual molesting, finger eating , benched for Fitzmagic Jameis Winston and recently 3-12, 5-11 Manning version of Danny DeVito to Peyton Mannings Arnold from Twins as a "shitty" QB
People still say that about McMahon but he should have got the MVP in the SB and that great D never even got back to the dance without him. Not the same D but we did get there once with Rex but the NFC was very weak that year and we should have been underdogs against any of the AFC division winners.
 

CRM 114

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These percentages are literally just someone's opinion. There is no mathematical formula or study that was done to derive the number. It's pretty useless.

I would rather look at something like 538 which will give a objective percentage based on raw data.

Opinion backed up on facts though.
Based on what? Anyone seeing the monumental improvement from Yr1 to Yr2 and yet can't imagine him getting better, clearly is choosing to ignore what is most likely future outcome. You claim you don't want him to fail, but you sure as hell are ignoring every single statistic to make your case that he won't.

Sure seems like you want him to fail. Just sayin'.



YearAgeTmPosNo.GGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%LngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBRSkYdsNY/AANY/ASk%4QCGWDAV
201723CHIQB1012124-8-019633059.4219372.172.1706.66.111.2182.877.531.6311965.535.058.6017
2018*24CHIQB10141411-3-028943466.63223245.5122.8707.47.311.2230.295.472.8241436.726.595.21213
Career262615-11-048576463.55416314.1192.5707.16.811.2208.387.7553396.205.916.71320



Yeah, I don't see any sign that his arrow is pointing up.

His play regressed in mid November on through the end of the season. That would indicate the arrow is indeed pointing down.
 

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Based on what? Anyone seeing the monumental improvement from Yr1 to Yr2 and yet can't imagine him getting better, clearly is choosing to ignore what is most likely future outcome....
Your question wasn't directed at me, but I think I've got a couple responses.

RE: Year over year improvement - He's taken a massive step forward, but stats don't tell the entire story. He's went from a circa-1980's John Fox offense to a far more modern, integrated system. The way I see it is that Fox probably wanted him to move through progressions, set feet and make plays. This is the 'traditional QB' type skill set and is extremely hard to do. It makes sense that Mitch had difficult showing he could handle it in practice coming off of a North Carolina offense run by Larry Fedora, which was largely built around 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), did push tempo (like Chip Kelly) and had a fairly simple 3-4 concepts he was trying to implement per game. With Nagy it's far more comparable to what he's done. I'd add a lot of the pre-snap movement and reads let's Mitch know exactly where he's going ahead of time. His jump year over year can be compared to Jared Goff. Much of that jump was being in a better fitting scheme, not just the players development.

The areas where Mitch falls short appear to be ones that are hard to change. Specifically I see him struggle when the timing of a play is disrupted and he has to improvise outside of tucking and running with the ball. In that respect he's similar to Kirk Cousins. As the play breaks down and it becomes 'backyard' football his chance of hurting his team increases.

That's where I see those 'WTF' type throws that leave you scratching your head. The best way to curb that is to just get a rid of the ball when it's not there. The problem there is you want the player to stay being aggressive, so how to you promote being aggressive but also ask mid-play to shut that down and just end the play?
 

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Trubisky is not surprisingly the #1 reason listed on why that number isn’t much higher (like Houston and Kansas City’s are). I honestly think if Pace had drafted Watson or Mahomes that they would be near the top of the league but unfortunately he settled for less. God help this team when Trubisky inevitably demands $30 million a year for holding the team back. Bears will be spineless enough to give him that too.

CRM 114 coming in hot with some of the best most unbiased analysis.....

Oh wait he is a Watson F&%$ Boy, I forgot.
 

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That’s not how it works. Some teams (mostly teams with great QBs like New England, Kansas City and Houston) have better odds than others (mostly teams with shitty QBs like Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Giants)

CRM skipped Stats class in High School.
 

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His play regressed in mid November on through the end of the season. That would indicate the arrow is indeed pointing down.
Yeah, can't imagine why he would have poorer stats playing vs the #'s 1,3,3,8,11,12,14 ranked passing defenses than the 4,12,17,21,22,24,26 ranked defenses.

Oh, yeah, he still was the winning QB in every one of those contests in the "regressed" second half.

Purposeful ignorance is still ignorance.
 

gallagher

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Your question wasn't directed at me, but I think I've got a couple responses.

RE: Year over year improvement - He's taken a massive step forward, but stats don't tell the entire story. He's went from a circa-1980's John Fox offense to a far more modern, integrated system. The way I see it is that Fox probably wanted him to move through progressions, set feet and make plays. This is the 'traditional QB' type skill set and is extremely hard to do. It makes sense that Mitch had difficult showing he could handle it in practice coming off of a North Carolina offense run by Larry Fedora, which was largely built around 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), did push tempo (like Chip Kelly) and had a fairly simple 3-4 concepts he was trying to implement per game. With Nagy it's far more comparable to what he's done. I'd add a lot of the pre-snap movement and reads let's Mitch know exactly where he's going ahead of time. His jump year over year can be compared to Jared Goff. Much of that jump was being in a better fitting scheme, not just the players development.

The areas where Mitch falls short appear to be ones that are hard to change. Specifically I see him struggle when the timing of a play is disrupted and he has to improvise outside of tucking and running with the ball. In that respect he's similar to Kirk Cousins. As the play breaks down and it becomes 'backyard' football his chance of hurting his team increases.

That's where I see those 'WTF' type throws that leave you scratching your head. The best way to curb that is to just get a rid of the ball when it's not there. The problem there is you want the player to stay being aggressive, so how to you promote being aggressive but also ask mid-play to shut that down and just end the play?
Those WTF throws are usually red zone. On third down with more space he was more often making a good play, but your point stands. Last year he made way too many mistakes with the pressure on.

But I think he's going to get better in that regard. Film study and practice, and the calm confidence will come along and his decisions will improve.
 

didshereallysaythat

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Opinion backed up on facts though.


His play regressed in mid November on through the end of the season. That would indicate the arrow is indeed pointing down.

Not really. Mayfield hasn't shown to be better than Trubisky. The rest of the team has not shown to be as good as the Bears, yet he has the Browns having a better chance. The Packers have not shown to have a better surrounding cast for Rodgers. It's all his projection based on opinions. No facts at all. If he wanted to merely rank the teams most likely to win the superbowl in the next 5 years, while he would still be basing it on his opinion, it would atleast not look as Special person. To put percentage numbers next to it though is ridiculous. I am not sure the percentages add up properly. They seem too low for everyone.

Edit - atleast it does add up to 300. they got that right atleast.
 

CNiel36

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Opinion backed up on facts though.


His play regressed in mid November on through the end of the season. That would indicate the arrow is indeed pointing down.

You mean he regressed coming off a shoulder injury shocker!?!?! And even this is untrue. He had one of his best games against the Lions on 11/18 (QB Rating = 148.). Then got hurt in the Vikes game which contributed to his poor play. They missed 2 games due to injury and came back to early. Played like crap against the Rams trying to push his shoulder.

The next 4 games QB rating were 120, 114, 86, & 95. All 4 W's. His last game against the Eagles, played like crap in the first half and had a great second half.

So what does that mean? It means his shoulder was banged up the back half of the season, and he and Nagy had to relearn what he could do on that bad shoulder. Go watch the 4th quarter of the eagles game again and tell me this isn't a player that can be a top QB in a few years?
 

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Your question wasn't directed at me, but I think I've got a couple responses.

RE: Year over year improvement - He's taken a massive step forward, but stats don't tell the entire story. He's went from a circa-1980's John Fox offense to a far more modern, integrated system. The way I see it is that Fox probably wanted him to move through progressions, set feet and make plays. This is the 'traditional QB' type skill set and is extremely hard to do. It makes sense that Mitch had difficult showing he could handle it in practice coming off of a North Carolina offense run by Larry Fedora, which was largely built around 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), did push tempo (like Chip Kelly) and had a fairly simple 3-4 concepts he was trying to implement per game. With Nagy it's far more comparable to what he's done. I'd add a lot of the pre-snap movement and reads let's Mitch know exactly where he's going ahead of time. His jump year over year can be compared to Jared Goff. Much of that jump was being in a better fitting scheme, not just the players development.

The areas where Mitch falls short appear to be ones that are hard to change. Specifically I see him struggle when the timing of a play is disrupted and he has to improvise outside of tucking and running with the ball. In that respect he's similar to Kirk Cousins. As the play breaks down and it becomes 'backyard' football his chance of hurting his team increases.

That's where I see those 'WTF' type throws that leave you scratching your head. The best way to curb that is to just get a rid of the ball when it's not there. The problem there is you want the player to stay being aggressive, so how to you promote being aggressive but also ask mid-play to shut that down and just end the play?
Agreed. Mitch has to get better at improvising when things go to shit. A lot of time I think he tries to force the ball instead of just using his legs.
 

CRM 114

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CRM 114 coming in hot with some of the best most unbiased analysis.....

Oh wait he is a Watson F&%$ Boy, I forgot.

I don’t fancy myself one. In fact I’m very unbiased on this whole thing. I’m only interested in the facts.
 

gallagher

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Last season, the Titans were 9-7, and are adjudged before the preseason to have worse odds of making the Superbowl than the four worst teams by record from last year.

I wanna see the equation the writer used to determine these "odds"
 

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