Bears hold the #2 draft pick

[Myk]

What if the Bears aren't all in on Fields? Poles' first draft didn't hint that he was trying for anything but a QB in '23. Fields looking like he has only says we can get something for him.
He could get a QB to "compete", fix the offense to make Fields look worthy of trading for and have a year left to make teams that want him trade to get him.

I'm a fan of the haul we would get for any trade to #2 but a free chance at a top QB isn't something to easily overlook. Especially not if we could get a first round pick or a known talent for Fields in his 4th year. Hell, the way we've been paying some of the known backups we could even hang on to Fields and be set to not let a QB injury ruin our year.

About the only thing I am completely against is spending that #2 (or a >10 trade on defense).

 

[pdxbearsfan]

It’s a fair question.

I think it all depends on the compensation in the trade. It’s a deep edge class, which is certainly a factor to consider too.

I've watched several Bama games and Anderson doesn't jump off the tape.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

Well, to go from 12 to 3 in a draft with 5 QBs that went in the first round, SF paid three first round picks and a third rounder.

In a draft where only two QBs may be worth the pick, I think Chicago could charge more. Now I will say that I personally think that staying put and getting a class-defining player is the right choice, but it would be hard to say no to three first round picks.

I'm starting to think some QB needy team may wait for Caleb Williams next year who is young, mature, ubber talented and already better than any QB in this draft if the GM and HC think their jobs are safe.

 

[dennehy]

Yes, but don't we have the hardest remaining schedule?

Yeah, dumbbell, but the harder schedule loses the tiebreaker.

 

[Da Coach]

What if the Bears aren't all in on Fields? Poles' first draft didn't hint that he was trying for anything but a QB in '23. Fields looking like he has only says we can get something for him.
He could get a QB to "compete", fix the offense to make Fields look worthy of trading for and have a year left to make teams that want him trade to get him.

I'm a fan of the haul we would get for any trade to #2 but a free chance at a top QB isn't something to easily overlook. Especially not if we could get a first round pick or a known talent for Fields in his 4th year. Hell, the way we've been paying some of the known backups we could even hang on to Fields and be set to not let a QB injury ruin our year.

About the only thing I am completely against is spending that #2 (or a >10 trade on defense).

It's an interesting point im not up on the college QB talent yet but I think you stick with fields most likely. But, I wouldn't totally discount the idea - he's a hell of a runner but has a log way to go in the passing game

 

[CAP BOSO]

How Lovie landed a head coaching job again is amazing to me.

They saw an old man that would take a pay day to be shitty.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Ok but let's then look at the 2012 trade for RG111 who had a major injury red flag and the 2016 trade for Carson Wentz a small college QB. They both went #2 in their drafts.

Washington moved up from 6th and gave up 1st round picks in 2012, 2013, and 2014 plus a 2012 2nd round pick.

Eagles moved up from the 8th pick and gave up 1st round picks in 2016, 2017, 2018, plus a 2nd round pick.

This seems to be the haul you could expect to see if the Bears remain with the #2 overall pick.

But the lions #3 and #13 overall has more value than any of those scenarios, and it isn't even close.
Look no further than what Pace traded up for to get Mitch.

 

[DB012031]

But the lions #3 and #13 overall has more value than any of those scenarios, and it isn't even close.
Look no further than what Pace traded up for to get Mitch.

Just because certain GM's make bad/dumb trades doesn't mean that others would. I mean, what GM in their right mind not named Pace would have made that trade to move up 1 fing spot for Mitch...Pretty much NO ONE would. So, what I am saying is that we can't always compare what 1 team got in a trade and say that's the standard. Just because we as fans value someone doesn't mean that others do. See what Indy gave up for Wentz and what Denver gave up for Russel...I think they have some heavy buyer's remorse.

Now, the one team that very well could overpay this season is Seattle. I say that because they are a solid team with a lot of picks (thanks Denver). Also, Seattle is good enough that they won't be picking high enough after next season (2024 draft) that any of the top QB's next year (Caleb Williams for example) will be long gone. So, if Seattle is going to capitalize on their momentum, this would be the year to grab a QB. Also, since they hit on so many draft picks this past season, they may be more willing to give up more capital to get the next franchise QB.

It would shock me if Seattle and Chicago made a deal like this:

• Chicago gives up this year's #2 and #52
• Seattle gives up this year's #4, #16, #47 and in 2024 their 3rd and 4th round picks

Seattle gets the QB they want (Stroud or Young) and the Bears pick up an extra 1st, 3rd and 4th while also moving up in the 2nd round. This also sets the Bears up to Flip #4 for more picks as either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter will be there and the Bears could move back and collect another haul from teams like Dallas, Vegas, Giants or Eagles that have lots of draft capital and would spend more to move up to 4.

 

[HeHateMe]

Just because certain GM's make bad/dumb trades doesn't mean that others would. I mean, what GM in their right mind not named Pace would have made that trade to move up 1 fing spot for Mitch...Pretty much NO ONE would. So, what I am saying is that we can't always compare what 1 team got in a trade and say that's the standard. Just because we as fans value someone doesn't mean that others do. See what Indy gave up for Wentz and what Denver gave up for Russel...I think they have some heavy buyer's remorse.

Now, the one team that very well could overpay this season is Seattle. I say that because they are a solid team with a lot of picks (thanks Denver). Also, Seattle is good enough that they won't be picking high enough after next season (2024 draft) that any of the top QB's next year (Caleb Williams for example) will be long gone. So, if Seattle is going to capitalize on their momentum, this would be the year to grab a QB. Also, since they hit on so many draft picks this past season, they may be more willing to give up more capital to get the next franchise QB.

It would shock me if Seattle and Chicago made a deal like this:

• Chicago gives up this year's #2 and #52
• Seattle gives up this year's #4, #16, #47 and in 2024 their 3rd and 4th round picks

Seattle gets the QB they want (Stroud or Young) and the Bears pick up an extra 1st, 3rd and 4th while also moving up in the 2nd round. This also sets the Bears up to Flip #4 for more picks as either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter will be there and the Bears could move back and collect another haul from teams like Dallas, Vegas, Giants or Eagles that have lots of draft capital and would spend more to move up to 4.

 

[DB012031]

View attachment 24459

Couple of thoughts:

• I don't think Johnson lasts until #20. He should be the first WR taken, IMO, so I think he is long gone before then
• Did you address Oline in FA because you don't have us taking any in the first 5 picks and that is arguably our weakest area
• Why 2 TE with Kemet already on the roster? What about a DT or are you assuming that we picked one up in FA as well

Just curious on your process? Or did you go basically BPA regardless of position?

 

[HeHateMe]

Couple of thoughts:

• I don't think Johnson lasts until #20. He should be the first WR taken, IMO, so I think he is long gone before then
• Did you address Oline in FA because you don't have us taking any in the first 5 picks and that is arguably our weakest area
• Why 2 TE with Kemet already on the roster? What about a DT or are you assuming that we picked one up in FA as well

Just curious on your process? Or did you go basically BPA regardless of position?

Those are very good questions, thank you. This was done on a mock draft simulator so took BPA. It's a "grade A" draft that gets Poles a bunch of picks. Let's assume he uses a lot of that cap space to compete sooner than later and fills it out in the draft.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

Still 4 other 3 win teams and they all have the SOS tie breaker. Long ways to go to get second pick. Jags and Browns winning was big.

CHI won't be winning another game though.

 

[bears51/40]

But the lions #3 and #13 overall has more value than any of those scenarios, and it isn't even close.
Look no further than what Pace traded up for to get Mitch.

Closest I can come to this trade is...............Chargers moving up one spot with the Cards in 1998, moving from 3 to 2 for Ryan Leaf.

Cards get the #3 pick in the 1st, the #33 pick in the 2nd, plus two players.

 

[remydat]

But the lions #3 and #13 overall has more value than any of those scenarios, and it isn't even close.
Look no further than what Pace traded up for to get Mitch.

Bears likely would be happy taken just 2 firsts if it is the Lions and Seahawks but anyone else probably needs to give up 3 first.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

CHI won't be winning another game though.

They don’t get second pick if they lose all their games. Need Rams and Broncos to win a game each. (Or tie)

 

[Myk]

Just because certain GM's make bad/dumb trades doesn't mean that others would. I mean, what GM in their right mind not named Pace would have made that trade to move up 1 fing spot for Mitch...Pretty much NO ONE would. So, what I am saying is that we can't always compare what 1 team got in a trade and say that's the standard. Just because we as fans value someone doesn't mean that others do. See what Indy gave up for Wentz and what Denver gave up for Russel...I think they have some heavy buyer's remorse.

Now, the one team that very well could overpay this season is Seattle. I say that because they are a solid team with a lot of picks (thanks Denver). Also, Seattle is good enough that they won't be picking high enough after next season (2024 draft) that any of the top QB's next year (Caleb Williams for example) will be long gone. So, if Seattle is going to capitalize on their momentum, this would be the year to grab a QB. Also, since they hit on so many draft picks this past season, they may be more willing to give up more capital to get the next franchise QB.

It would shock me if Seattle and Chicago made a deal like this:

• Chicago gives up this year's #2 and #52
• Seattle gives up this year's #4, #16, #47 and in 2024 their 3rd and 4th round picks

Seattle gets the QB they want (Stroud or Young) and the Bears pick up an extra 1st, 3rd and 4th while also moving up in the 2nd round. This also sets the Bears up to Flip #4 for more picks as either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter will be there and the Bears could move back and collect another haul from teams like Dallas, Vegas, Giants or Eagles that have lots of draft capital and would spend more to move up to 4.

It doesn't matter if they have buyer's remorse, most of these trades are within the bounds of it being value = value. As those trades are made they drive the market values.
Not talking about the PFN pie in the sky trades, the actual trades. There may be another pick in there to sweeten the deal but they are not vastly overpaying like PFN.
The trade for Trubisky while a stupid trade to make was not overpaying to move up that 1 spot.

People thinking #2 is not worth a haul are just ignorant and way over value later picks.

People who think someone is jumping a couple spots want to get the haul for #2 while keeping a top 10 pick, confirmation bias. My confirmation bias has me wanting a real haul and to avoid the top 10 contract in 5 years so those are the scenarios I come up with.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

They don’t get second pick if they lose all their games. Need Rams and Broncos to win a game each. (Or tie)

I believe that those teams have a better chance of winning a remaining game than CHI does.

If they get the 2 pick, what would you do?

 

[Bearcub13]

Sucking our way to number one. I think we can do it!

The math says the correct number would be more like 99.99%, that is just how freakish NFL athletes are.