CSF77
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IMO they are keeping LF open next year for Schwarber. It is starting to look that way now.
chibears55
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I dont expect him to do at 35 what he did at age 31,32,33
He provides absolutely nothing offensively
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My favorite teams
It's dumb!
beckdawg
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You're looking at the wrong numbers. Denorfia is a platoon mate pure and simple. 2014 was down across the board but his 2013 numbers vs left handed pitchers was .284/.355/.479 and his overall career numbers vs lefties are .292/.358/.430. Coghlan is a career .243/.322/.336 vs lefties and .282/.346/.425 vs righties. As such, if you pair the two togehter you're basically getting a .280-.290/.340-350/.420-.430 hitter. Pairing the two of them together in theory gives you a hell of a lot of value for like $5 mil.
It's clearly not a "wow" signing but it's not meant to be. It's meant to be a stop gap to get them by until their prospects are ready without blowing a bunch of money.
chibears55
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Once they reach 34/35 YO, you stop looking at career numbers when they were in their primes and more at what have they done lately. .. especially the role players...
He hit .220 against lefties last year, i dont expect much better this year.. in fact i bet he wont even be on team come July..
plus not just last year but career wise he provides nothing offensively as far as power OBP or speed..
he going to bat 8th and basically be 2015 Baker...
A stop gap for who ? Schwarber? Schwarber needs to prove he can hit higher then A ball before he annointed LF..
They couldve brought in a decent LFer for the the next 2 seasons. .. im tired of stop gaps and platoons
CSF77
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Lets see:
Russell AAA. Could move to 3B with Bryant moving to LF. In 2015 not 2 years.
Other options:
Bryant promotes up in May. Olt frees up from 3B. Can be moved to LF with Coghlan. Valbuena becomes a UI or trade bait at that point.
The thing is I wouldn't set anything in stone yet. But they have 2 impact bats up welling in 2015. Schwarber is a 2016 option. Even then he could end up being a solid pitch framer and take over catching.
beckdawg
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I gave you his 2013 splits. They were fine. As for 2014, you're possibly discounting the fact that he played in two of the worst hitters parks(SEA/SD). All of his batted ball data is pretty similar to his 2013 splits except for his HR/FB data which dropped 5%. Fewer HRs per FB means more outs. His BABIP was 30 points below his career marks which probably also didn't help matters. Not saying Denorfia is the guy to put the cubs over the top but you could have put up the same comments about Coghlan last year and he was fine. I honestly think you're drastically overreacting to a bad season. Even if he's not as good as he was from 29-32 he's still got value and you're only facing lefties 25% of the time anyways and frankly think it's unlikely that he entirely falls of a cliff at 34. If his k rate or some other indicator had spiked then sure that's worthy of a concern but the data suggests a player who isn't really any different from the one who put up a 4 fWAR season in 2013.
As for platoons, they work plain and simple. I don't know where you get this idea that the cubs had better options. Melky Cabrera and Cruz this year means no Lester which you basically had previously said means a train wreck of an offseason to you. The year prior you're talking about Choo who was a disaster, and Elsbury who the cubs never were getting. Granderson was fairly bad. The "right" move would have been signing Cruz in 2014 coming off PED suspension. Even then he was worth 3.9 fWAR compared to the 2.2 they got out of Coghlan.
As for the stop gap, there's any number of options. You could realistically be talking about Bryant in LF as soon as this year. But even if you ignore that possibility, in the near future if they don't trade away Baez/he busts you're looking at Almora in 1-2 years being another player which probably shifts Alcantara to LF. You're also talking about McKinney on a similar time frame. Schwarber you also mentioned.
Regardless, you don't need an All-Star at every position and frankly given the type of players the cubs should have coming thru the pipe/what they already have you don't need someone to hit 25+ HRs. You just need guys who can get on base. I mean honestly, if Coghlan is what he was last year vs right handers and Denorfia is even 80% of what he was vs lefties over his career who cares? That's probably worth about 3+ WAR. A 3 win player should cost you roughly $15 mil a season and they are paying the two what? $5 mil for a grand total of 1 year? If you had given Cruz/Melky 3-4 years in 2 years you're in a position where you want to see a prospect get MLB at bats but you're paying a guy $14-15 mil for another 2 years. And what do those two players change next year? Unless all the prospects play lights out the cubs aren't a playoff team anyways.
beckdawg
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Oh one more thing, Denorfia put up 24.8 UZR/150 in 2013 and 16.4 in 2014 in RF. That makes him a top 5 defensive player which is far from a bad bench guy.
chibears55
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lets be real with this... he going to start the season at 34 and turn 35 in July.. his career on the decline.. you cant look at what he did at 30, 31, 32, 33 and think he will be that guy.. he will be closer to what he did in 2014 then 2013..
they could of just kept Ruggiano if this is their answer for LF platoon..
you could suger coat it any way you want, its just a bad signing.. he going to suck
no lester ? please don't tell me you think adding 14 mil per for melky would of strapped the cubs from adding Lester.. don't be that guy
I would of been more satisfied if they just stayed with ruggiano to go with coghlin then spending 2 mil on a 34/35 YO platoon garbage...
at least ruggiano had some pop in his bat
look.. bottom line is they were suppose to go out and bring in solid veteran bats to help ease the offensive transition of the core 4 kids..
they brought in Ross, LaStella, and Denorfia all players who had garbage years in 2014, 2 of which are in mid 30s and none are any batter then having john baker on your bench.. they failed in providing offensive back up for the kids and besides Ross who is basically Lester bag carrier, I bet LaStella and Denorfia wont even be with the cubs pass July... they are garbage signings and they could of done better but it looks like they took a lazy route and signed guys who would be maybe the 25th guy on a roster if not on one at all....
TC in Mississippi
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That's really crazy talk Denorfia is pretty much who they said they were going to get to platoon with Coghlan, you just never wanted to hear it. It's pretty obvious that they don't want to position block LF because it's likely Bryant or Schwarber is going to play there eventually and probably soon. You want immediate fixes for a year clearly designed to be a transition year. If they're competing in July they may try to contend until then they're trying to compete. This move helps them do that. I'd accept it if I were you.
beckdawg
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You have absolutely no way of substantiating this. If you want to believe that it is obviously your right but to sit here and proclaim that you know for a fact that he will is beyond arrogant. Marlon Byrd resurrected his career at 35 and numerous others have played well into their mid-late 30's. Additionally, you're underestimating what made him a good player to begin with. Let's first start with defense. This is a skill that frankly holds well with age. Ichiro was a similarly skilled defensive player in RF and continued being that until he was 39. He's got average speed and below average power. So, losing even 5 SB next year really doesn't matter that much because that's not his game. Like wise, if he loses power it's not a huge part of his game. He's a high contact guy with a slightly above walk rate. What reason do you have to believe either of those two skills fall off?
I'll humor your argument that perhaps he does continue to decline. So what? As a right handed defensive replacement at worst he's batting 25% of the time. They essentially traded Ruggiano for a prospect and got the same thing out of Denorfia. It doesn't cost them any more money and they got a prospect out of the deal. If he is shit like you suggest then you're looking at someone like Lake having another chance as someone with a higher ceiling that you want. And by midseason you likely see Bryant up anyways if they choose to play him in LF.
With the other moves they've made yes I believe that. What evidence do you have to the contrary that they have another $15 mil to spend? And even if they did, why is LF where you'd spend it? Surely adding another front line starter would be more of a benefit. Adding a $15 mil LF almost certainly stops them from getting Montero. I'm not even a big Montero guy but clearly with their pursuit of Martin and him they feel that C is by far a bigger issue. So, I see no realistic situation where them adding another player happens at that sort of rate. They've added around $65 mil in 2015 salary when most found it hard to believe they'd spend much more than $50 mil.
Let's get a grip on reality here. You're complaining about a 4th/5th outfielder like they make or break the season. Coghlan will still see roughly 75% of the time. Melky was worth 2.6 fWAR last season in 621 PAs. Coghlan was worth 2.2 in 432 PAs. If Coghlan is as good as last season he's worth as much as Melky was last year anyways and in theory if Denorfia is a fraction of what he's been against left handed pitching he's a better platoon mate than Coghlan had. Either way, i'd rather have Coghlan and payroll flexibility than Melky and Cruz while potentially better is also going to be 34.
chibears55
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Like i said.. they could of just held onto Ruggiano then
If this was their platoon plan...
I would of been fine with a Ruggiano / Coghlan tag team in LF til they improved with whomever, because they both provide something offensively. ...
Denorfia is a worse option then Ruggiano, he going to be 35 in 2015 and he provides nothing... no power. No speed .. no OBP.. nothing but waste of 2 mil for the year..
I mean seriously id like to know if it was jed or theo who said hey lets get this Denorfia guy and offer him 2 mil, he a good fit...
beckdawg
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He has exactly 1 season under .335 OBP and because it happened to be last year that means he never will be better? Ruggiano who you just said you'd rather have kept batted .222/.298/.396 in 2013 comparative to the .230/.284/.318 Denorfia hit in 2014. The cubs are literally doing what they've done every year Theo's been here. They've found someone who had a down year with numbers that indicated it was a fluke and signed him hoping for an improvement. This is the exact same idea they took with Ruggiano, Hammel, Feldman, Maholm, Navarro, and numerous others.
I don't see why you feel this is a huge affront to you as a fan. I could easily argue that Denorfia is a better 4th outfielder simply based on his defense alone. Ruggiano is a career 0.6 UZR/150 in the OF. Denorfia is 6.7 and all of 2 years older.
chibears55
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like ive been saying.. why not just keep ruggiano who provides more offensively then Denorfia if this was their answer..
I see he was with the padres since 2010, so he obviously a jed hoyer guy.. so, they dumped Ruggiano to bring him in..
an updated payroll as of right now is 86 MIL.. with just a handful of ARBs left to do.. so, what it might get to 100 MIL after ARB, if they keep wood and castillo..
im thinking they can afford a 110-115 mil payroll for 2015..
wrong... again, payroll just at 86 mil. now with everyone accounted for except some ARBS..
LMAO... sorry,, they added 65 mil to the what 20 mil they had committed for 2015.. come on..lol
hey if they go and spend money on another top line starter , ill shut up... but I doubt that their plan
LF and 3B depending on where they wanna play Bryant were the only reasonable spots open for a legit bat... they swung and missed here
look, my gripe is mostly that after they got rid of Ruggiano who would of been perfect to platoon with coghlin in LF...
I figured they were going to bring in a legit bat for LF either sign or my thinking was via trade... seeing they brought in this Denorfia character from SD who really don't provide much of anything offensively even if he hits .270 against lefties cause he has no pop, no speed , and low OBP... youll get like 60 singles and 15 EBH ..
its just a downer, because I know and so do you.. these kids are going to go through some struggles this season and this team going to need offense provided elsewhere when they do and Ross , LeStella and Denorfia are not going to provide it...
if im wrong ill admit it, but I just don't feel it with this guy.. we shall see
beckdawg
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And in my opinion your looking at adding the wrong things. The cubs don't need more pop. They were 5th in the league last season in HRs. Besides that, putting Denorfia in Wrigley is going to up his homer total vs Petco/Safeco. I mean that's an obvious. On the other hand, the cubs finished 27th in on base. As I said in my previous post, he has 1 season under .335 OBP. Sure that is last year but it's a prototypical buy low signing. You add that in with substantially better defense and it should be pretty obvious what they are going for here.
chibears55
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look, I admit I was looking for a sexier move and they provided me a Denorfia on my plate..lol
come ST, ill be rooting for him like crazy to succeed with everyone cause he a cub
im hoping for an exciting season with more wins then losses... I hope denorfia can help provide some of it
beckdawg
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I don't think Melky is as sexy as you make it out to be though. Melky has 2 seasons where he hit more than 15 HRs one of which was 2011 when he was probably on PEDs. The other was last year where he had a grand total of 16. I'd be far more outraged if the cubs dropped $15 mil a season on him than the conservative path they took on a buy low and hope guy like Denorfia. Melky's an ok player but he has 2 seasons over 3 fWAR and he was likely on PEDs in both. In reality you're probably paying $15 mil a season for 2-3 WAR. Smart teams can get that out of guys like Coghlan for sub-$5 mil. And by not paying someone $15 mil this year they drop $15 mil on a signing bonus for Lester which makes the next 6 years for him cheaper when the prospects we all hope are the goods will be up. If they aren't that's $15 mil + the the ~$30 mil over the next 2 seasons you can use to address what doesn't work. Cruz is 34 as well so again, don't really see the great appeal.
The "move" as it were IMO was to trade prospects for a Heyward/Upton type who's still young but already and established all-star. But that's a whole different discussion.
chibears55
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That exactly what i was looking for too....
TC in Mississippi
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I get it, you've been saying that all along. The FO hasn't though, they said they were going to get a TOR starter, upgrade at catcher, upgrade OBP depth and get some veteran presence in the outfield, most figured the latter to be Jonny Gomes but instead it's Denorfia. They've basically done everything they said they would. The fact is that "phase 2" is happening maybe a year earlier than they thought it would and they're trying to put together a team that can play better baseball while they continue to develop and evaluate talent. The mix of guys they brought in, like them or not, indicates that they are going for a specific mix of skills to complement their young hitters as these guys grow up a bit. 2015 should be the most fun Cubs fans have had watching baseball in years but it's always been unlikely that playoffs will be at the end of it unless something crazy happens and it is baseball after all.
CSF77
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The team lacked a OBA mix at the top of the order. Coghlan did fine as a lead off and now he has a partner who gets on base vs LH pitching. The bigger question is if they are planning to bat Castro or Alcantara #2.