Brett Kollmann Ranks Every DT in the Draft

[Bearly]

Stats don't tell you very much about an interior lineman who is constantly absorbing double teams all game. Carter looks like a beast on tape.

That said, I wouldn't take Carter at #9 because at least one of Skoronski/Johnson/Witherspoon/Gonzales is going to be available at #9, and I like those guys better than Carter.

Carter scares me as well but I'll defer to this staff's due diligence until proven otherwise. As in the previous post, I'd wait on OT and take the CB or target that 3-tech somehow, Deep OT draft. That said. I wouldn't hate on an OT selection either.

 

[Bort]

Carter scares me as well but I'll defer to this staff's due diligence until proven otherwise. As in the previous post, I'd wait on tackle and take the CB or target that 3-tech somehow, Deep T draft. That said. I wouldn't hate on T.

I haven't watched enough on the QB prospects to have a strong opinion on any of them, but I think the elite prospects at premium non-QB positions who project as all-pro caliber players are Anderson, Carter, Skoronski, Johnson, Witherspoon, and Gonzales. I just don't see how the risk-reward calculation for Carter makes any sense if one of those other guys is still available. When you're picking that high, you can get an elite prospect at a premium position who doesn't have the character concerns.

Guys like Tyree Wilson, Nolan Smith, Myles Murphy, and Lukas Van Ness will probably all go early, too, just because teams put such a premium on edge rushers, but I think Anderson is really the only elite tier edge rusher in this class, so I'd probably take a chance on Carter over one of those second tier edge rushers.

 

[knoxville7]

Carter is the most talented player in the draft. If he’s there at 9, you take him. It’s a no brainer

 

[playthrough2001]

Carter is the most talented player in the draft. If he’s there at 9, you take him. It’s a no brained

Lots of incredibly talented guys have busted in the NFL and other pro sports. I hope Poles and Warren put him through the ringer during his top 30 visit. The talent is obvious, but does he love the game and will he put in the work to be great in the NFL? He’s not going to show up and just dominate NFL talent unless he’s committed to working hard and unlocking his potential.

 

[knoxville7]

Lots of incredibly talented guys have busted in the NFL and other pro sports. I hope Poles and Warren put him through the ringer during his top 30 visit. The talent is obvious, but does he love the game and will he put in the work to be great in the NFL? He’s not going to show up and just dominate NFL talent unless he’s committed to working hard and unlocking his potential.

This concern can be listed for basically every draft prospect, though.

Do they love the game enough to put in the work? Do they have the desire to be great and put in the work?

 

[TL1961]

Obviously the off the field concerns are the reason for the fall and the lackadaisical pro day did not help.

But for those who keep looking at Carter’s stats and trying to somehow tear him down because he didn’t get a sack in this game or that game I would just remind them that literally every NFL exec and or analyst who has published their top prospect list has him as the number one defensive tackle.

When analysts are saying he’s the best defensive tackle prospect in 10 years it’s not for no reason. How many sacks he got against South Alabama is not the deciding factor on whether or not you draft him.

I had him off the board after his arrest and have changed my mind on all of that, but it certainly would have to come down to how Poles and Eberflus feel about him after the interviews.

He would be a risk, that is true. But people trying to devalue him based on stats seem to be on the complete opposite side of every analyst who has experience and gets paid to evaluate NFL prospects.

 

[playthrough2001]

This concern can be listed for basically every draft prospect, though.

Do they love the game enough to put in the work? Do they have the desire to be great and put in the work?

There’s certainly more nuance to it than that.

Nobody questioned Peyton Manning was a fantastic college player but also had an incredible work ethic.

Ryan Leaf had physical gifts but had character concerns too, I think the choice was a no brainer for Polian.

The Chargers rolled the dice and it was a disaster of epic proportions.

This year, Will Anderson has great talent and teams know he has the character and will to work hard. He’s proven it.

Carter, not so much…

 

[knoxville7]

There’s certainly more nuance to it than that.

Nobody questioned Peyton Manning was a fantastic college player but also had an incredible work ethic.

Ryan Leaf had physical gifts but had character concerns too, I think the choice was a no brainer for Polian.

The Chargers rolled the dice and it was a disaster of epic proportions.

This year, Will Anderson has great talent and teams know he has the character and will to work hard. He’s proven it.

Carter, not so much…

Sure, you can find neat stories like that.
Just like I could point out how people though Randy moss didn’t have work ethic and was a giant reg glad, and how did he turn out? I could list numerous other name as well that had red flags and question marks coming into the draft and ended up being pro bowlers.

so, I just don’t put much stock into it

 

[playthrough2001]

Sure, you can find neat stories like that.
Just like I could point out how people though Randy moss didn’t have work ethic and was a giant reg glad, and how did he turn out? I could list numerous other name as well that had red flags and question marks coming into the draft and ended up being pro bowlers.

so, I just don’t put much stock into it

Randy Moss was always in elite physical condition and he dominated in college although at Marshall.

Moss was kind of a head case but he delivered on the field and was always in top physical condition.
Carter showed up at his pro day looking like he trained for the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Championship. Also, he had nowhere near the production on the field as a guy like Moss or Warren Sapp.

Maybe he’ll be great, but I don’t have faith that he won’t just eat his way out of the league.

I’m not sure he’d be fit enough to handle/provide 20 quality NFL snaps a game.

 

[TL1961]

There’s certainly more nuance to it than that.

Nobody questioned Peyton Manning was a fantastic college player but also had an incredible work ethic.

Ryan Leaf had physical gifts but had character concerns too, I think the choice was a no brainer for Polian.

The Chargers rolled the dice and it was a disaster of epic proportions.

This year, Will Anderson has great talent and teams know he has the character and will to work hard. He’s proven it.

Carter, not so much…

That's revisionist history. You say Peyton Manning was a no brainer for the Colts, and the Chargers "rolled the dice with Ryan Leaf", which sounds believable at this point.

But hard as it is to believe now leading up to that draft there was legitimate debate over which QB would be the first pick, and many considered it 50/50.

 

[playthrough2001]

That's revisionist history. You say Peyton Manning was a no brainer for the Colts, and the Chargers "rolled the dice with Ryan Leaf", which sounds believable at this point.

But hard as it is to believe now leading up to that draft there was legitimate debate over which QB would be the first pick, and many considered it 50/50.

Not really, most of that hype was generated by Leaf’s agent. Anyone who watched both of them play in college would be crazy to suggest Leaf was better.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Carter is the most talented player in the draft. If he’s there at 9, you take him. It’s a no brainer

Then again, you might want to actually use your brain and take great pause when considering character issues, weight issues and quitter issues.
And if you're a team who has put an onus and getting a top OT and only have 1 top 50 pick, you need seriously consider taking that OT with that first pick. And if your QB is in his last year to prove himself, you likely give serious consideration to other weapons that best aid him.

 

[Les Grossman]

Carter is the most talented player in the draft. If he’s there at 9, you take him. It’s a no brainer

Is he though? More than Bijan?

 

[knoxville7]

Is he though? More than Bijan?

Yes. And when you factor in positional importance it’s even more of a no brainer

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Yes. And when you factor in positional importance it’s even more of a no brainer

Everything is a no brainer for those who have no brain.

 

[knoxville7]

Everything is a no brainer for those who have no brain.

You are the one person that acts like everything you spout is a no brainer, so you must have the least brains of anyone on here according to your own statement

 

[Warrior Spirit]

You are the one person that acts like everything you spout is a no brainer, so you must have the least brains of anyone on here according to your own statement

Never a no brainer, just things that are more obvious than others. With talking about the huge character concerns for Carter, it is nonsensical to say just take him if he's there, especially for a team that has so many needs and only 1 pick in the top 50. You're expecting a big risk to be blindly taken while overlooking other top talent that doesn't bring the same concerns.

 

[knoxville7]

Never a no brainer, just things that are more obvious than others. With talking about the huge character concerns for Carter, it is nonsensical to say just take him if he's there, especially for a team that has so many needs and only 1 pick in the top 50. You're expecting a big risk to be blindly taken while overlooking other top talent that doesn't bring the same concerns.

What’s the biggest need on the team currently??

It’s 3 tech. So by your own argument he’s not only the most talented player but ALSO at the position of greatest need on the bears roster

Please, do go on…you’ll make some more points for me

 

[Warrior Spirit]

What’s the biggest need on the team currently??

It’s 3 tech. So by your own argument he’s not only the most talented player but ALSO at the position of greatest need on the bears roster

Please, do go on…you’ll make some more points for me

You conveniently overlook the character issues so, no, I'm not making a point for you. You are merely overlooking a major point.
Team is full of big needs. Everybody has their own opinion of what the biggest one might be.

 

[Bearin' Down]

Interesting to see how he has some of these guys stacked against each other. Admittedly, I haven't done much DT research but I didn't know there were this many quality options in this draft. A lot of flavors.

Tier 1

• Jalen Carter-Says best DT tape he's seen in ten years of doing this.

Tier 2

• Calijah Kancey-Nothing like his lateral quickness in this draft other than Jalen Carter. Vicious interior pass rusher
• Keeanu Benton-Says he could go mid-first (17 to Ptt) to mid-second. Good mix of Kancey and Mazi in terms of his ability to both stop the run and rush the passer. Cam Heyward comp.
• Mazi Smith-Best run defender in the draft besides Carter. DJ Reader comp with less pass rush juice.

Tier 3-should go Day 2, or top end of Day 3

• Adetomiwa Adeboware/Bryan Bresee-6T/5T on early downs, 3T on passing downs, Morgan Fox/Michael Bennet mixture comp for both, can't play 3T full time as they'll get crushed and washed away
• Jerrod Clark-Nose/2i, true nose, overwhelming power, Grover Stewart comp
• Kobie Turner-very versatile, 98th percentile 3-cone, really smart, top 100 "lock"
• Byron Young-Classic Bama 5T, well-coached, fundamental, good pop in his hands
• Gervon Dexter-5T/3T, stout run defender and incredible pop in his hands, Arik Armstead comp, slow off the ball (could be coaching or block recognition), raw pass rusher

Tier 4-not much difference between Tiers 3 & 4. Should go late Day 2 to mid Day 3

• Jaquelin Roy-straight line 3T with little bend/wiggle, rotational 3T, little upside athletically
• Nesta Jade Silvera-"Bowling ball of destruction", plays with his hair on fire, endless motor, more stout against the run than typical 3Ts, nose versatility
• Moro Ojomo-Devastatingly powerful run defender, raw as a pass rusher (similiar to Gervon Dexter), a couple years from being a 3T pass rusher on passing downs
• Siaki Ika/Keondre Coburn-0T nose, stout against the run, tough to uproot, neither are good pass rushers

Tier 5-Could go as high as 4th round through the 6th round

• Jalen Redmon-Very raw because he came into college at 235 and is now 295. Getting used to new weight as well as playing inside (came into college as an end). Highest pass rush ceiling besides Jalen Carter and Kancey, very low floor
• Brodric Martin-High highs and low lows, doesn't fully maximize his size (6'5 330)
• Zacch Pickens-One dimensional, penetrating 3T, cannot anchor against the run to save his life, nice counter moves as a pass rusher
• Cameron Young-Good run stopping 5T/3T, no juice as a pass rusher

I watched a lot of tape on DTs and I will say, no ones tape was as good as Aaron Donald's. I still have no clue how he wasn't taken 9-10 picks earlier.

However, Donald was drafted in 2014 so maybe he's rounding up, as it's not quite been 10 years.