Brewers extend Ryan Braun

[Captain Obvious]

The news this afternoon broke seemingly out of nowhere. Ryan Braun had just signed a five-year, $105 million extension that locks him in through the 2020 season. If it feels as though we just experienced a similar situation, it’s because we did. The Rockies signed Troy Tulowitzki to a six-year, $119 million extension in November even though he was under contract through 2014. Similarly, Braun’s current contract with the Brewers runs through 2015.


Before we dive into what this means for the Brewers, I suggest taking a moment to re-read Dave’s article on the Tulowitzki extension. It helps put in perspective part of the Brewers’ motivation for enacting this deal now and not a few years down the road. If they’re not betting on significant inflation affecting the market in the next four years, then their motives become a bit more questionable.


As if Braun weren’t already the face of the franchise, this seals it. His contract with the team now runs through his age-36 season, and has an option for the next year. He joins a small group of players — which include Derek Jeter, Todd Helton, and Tulowtizki — who have signed large contract extensions that keep them with their original teams through their most productive years. There’s some value to that, in that it signals to fans that the team won’t just let every homegrown player walk to a large market team after six years. That, I’m sure, factored into the Brewers’ decision.


Braun’s prowess at the plate is also no secret. His .388 wOBA from 2008 through 2010 ranks 14th among all qualified players, and the difference between Braun and the No. 8 player is a mere 5 points. His overall value gets downgraded a bit because he plays left field, and, according to our aggregate defensive rankings, doesn’t play it particularly well. His WAR in the past three years, 13.7, ranks 20th among his peers. He’s entering his prime years now, though, and it’s not difficult to envision him outpacing that production in the next few years. But that just raises another issue.


The Brewers already have Braun locked up through the bulk of his most productive years. His current contract runs through 2015, his age-31 season, at which point he would have reached free agency. Barring injury or other unexpected occurrence in the next five years, Braun will likely provide considerable, if not elite, value past that point. But his production in those years is less certain than in the years covered by his current contract. Again, this points back to Dave’s point about the Rockies betting on future inflation. For this deal to make sense for the Brewers, they have to be betting that salaries will inflate considerably between now and 2016, and that their extension will look like something of a steal by that point.
Otherwise, signing him for his age-32 through age-36 seasons during his age-27 season seems a bit foolish.


In this way, the Brewers have shielded themselves from a bit of criticism at this point. They’re making a bet that won’t become a factor for another five years. Is it a smart bet? I ask you, would you place a similar bet, that baseball salaries will inflate considerably in the next four years, with your own money? I wouldn’t. I’m not sure that provides us with any further insight about the wisdom of the Brewers’ move, but it’s an interesting question to ponder.


I’d add a note about this meaning the Brewers unofficially waving goodbye to Prince Fielder after this season, but that was apparent long before the Braun extension. The Brewers are already at $57.4 million in 2012 salary, and that’s just for six players. They have a lot of third-year arbitration cases beyond that. The Brewers have never topped $91 million in payroll, so it appears unlikely that they’ll even make a valiant effort to keep Prince. It’s a shame, since he and Braun represent one of the best 3-4 combos in the game. But, again, the Braun extension doesn’t change this situation much, if at all.


Any time we’re dealing with an extension keeps a player under contract for 10 seasons is going to draw some level of criticism. That criticism gets amplified when the player was already under contract for the next five years. But the Brewers have decided that Braun is their guy, the face of their franchise, and they’re putting in their chips on him. They’re also putting in their chips on inflation changing the salary landscape in the next few years. If they’re not, it becomes a lot more difficult to justify a five-year extension to a player under contract for five more already.

Hello Prince Fielder?

Also a pretty silly signing by the Brewers if you ask me. 36 year old Braun doesn't sound good.

 

[waldo7239117]

I think Fielder may have been a better investment. But this almost certains Fielder won't be back.

 

[USCChiFan]

The Brewers don't ever want him to hit FA, so they have that going for them.

 

[AddisonStation]

This is a bizarre extension to me... Why the hell not wait? But Fielder.... Welcome to the Cubs.... Maybe...... Hopefully.

 

[DewsSox79]

Hello Prince Fielder?

Also a pretty silly signing by the Brewers if you ask me. 36 year old Braun doesn't sound good.

coming from the guy who wants pujols and that contract. too funny.

But if Jim hendry acquired Braun and gave him the same contract you would be creaming in your pants while looking at a photo of jim hendry. God you contradict yourself all the time.

 

[AddisonStation]

coming from the guy who wants pujols and that contract. too funny.

But if Jim hendry acquired Braun and gave him the same contract you would be creaming in your pants while looking at a photo of jim hendry. God you contradict yourself all the time.

I'll just jump in and say that i think it's different when the player is already under your rights and signing a player from FA.

He probably told his agent he wanted the extension tho.

 

[bleacherbum54]

coming from the guy who wants pujols and that contract. too funny.

But if Jim hendry acquired Braun and gave him the same contract you would be creaming in your pants while looking at a photo of jim hendry. God you contradict yourself all the time.

ala Soriono But Braun is a better hitter than Sori.

 

[bleacherbum54]

coming from the guy who wants pujols and that contract. too funny.

But if Jim hendry acquired Braun and gave him the same contract you would be creaming in your pants while looking at a photo of jim hendry. God you contradict yourself all the time.

giving Pujols 280m at 32 would be the worst move for the franchise and we would suck for the next 10 yrs

 

[poodski]

Its really odd to do this extension. I dont get it.

Didnt get Tulo's either.

 

[bleacherbum54]

Its really odd to do this extension. I dont get it.

Didnt get Tulo's either.

Tulo had a heart to heart from what i've read with the owner which made the owner want to write him a blank check lol.

 

[DewsSox79]

giving Pujols 280m at 32 would be the worst move for the franchise and we would suck for the next 10 yrs

IMO Pujols would be the worst thing for the Cubs.

 

[AddisonStation]

No one is giving Pujols 32 million over 10 years.

 

[bleacherbum54]

No one is giving Pujols 32 million.

i said 280m over 10 years at the age of 32. Thats what he wants and if we gave it too him it would be a horrible move.

 

[AddisonStation]

i said 280m over 10 years at the age of 32. Thats what he wants and if we gave it too him it would be a horrible move.

Whoops. This guy needs to learn how to read.

I really don't think anyone will give him 10 years.

 

[DewsSox79]

Whoops. This guy needs to learn how to read.

I really don't think anyone will give him 10 years.

8 will be the low end, and that is still we todd did

 

[AddisonStation]

8 will be the low end, and that is still we todd did

I say he ends up getting 8 tops..... Unless someone is sofa king we Todd Ed.

 

[bleacherbum54]

Whoops. This guy needs to learn how to read.

I really don't think anyone will give him 10 years.

I worded it poorly i am a pretty bad typer. I am just saying thats what he was asking for. I hope the Cardinals give him what he wants. Maybe he can use us to make the Cards overpay. He will proably get more then you think but 280 would be crazy. I see a team giving him 250m 9 yrs. I say we bulid though our farm system and make smart signings no Sorio type deals. If the Marlins had our payroll they would be crazy good because they would be able to afford to keep thier young guys. We need a balance of home grown guys and some good FA's.

 

[daddies3angels]

Pujols will get 7-10 years...teams will offer more per year with 7 and go down on money per year when years go up

 

[AddisonStation]

I worded it poorly i am a pretty bad typer. I am just saying thats what he was asking for. I hope the Cardinals give him what he wants. Maybe he can use us to make the Cards overpay. He will proably get more then you think but 280 would be crazy. I see a team giving him 250m 9 yrs. I say we bulid though our farm system and make smart signings no Sorio type deals. If the Marlins had our payroll they would be crazy good because they would be able to afford to keep thier young guys. We need a balance of home grown guys and some good FA's.

I simply botched reading your post. I saw 32 while skimming haha.

I have always said that it'd be great if the cardinals give him what he wants and i don't really care if he gets what he wants as long as its not with the Cubs.

What do you guys see Fielder getting? 5-years $100MM ish?

 

[DewsSox79]

I say he ends up getting 8 tops..... Unless someone is sofa king we Todd Ed.

you rock!