Case for Captain Clutch

[Fred]

You know, after reading this "Case for Kirk" thread, I'm feeling a ton better about losing Gordon next year. With most of his minutes going to the rejuvenated Hinrich, we obviously won't miss a beat with the vastly improved defense, ball movement, passing, fewer free throws, support from white suburban kids, etc.

The thread actually inspired me to make another point for Kirk. We all know that the only thing that Gordon does is score. I might have argued once or twice that another benefit is when he scores. During the last few minutes of close games, the defense tightens, and the FG percentages go down. This is true at every level of basketball, pickup games included.

According to the site 82games.com, "Clutch" stats are recorded during the "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points". This is the time when you need your better players to step up. So far in the 08-09 season, Gordon is 15th in terms of point production per 48 minutes of clutch time. He is shooting 46% during "Clutch" time (41.5 on 3's). These percentages are an improvement on Gordon's 07-08 numbers, when he was 5th in the league in terms of point production per 48 minutes of clutch time, behind Lebron, Kobe, Dirk, and Manu Ginobili.

So why am I so excited then about Gordon's imminent departure? Because Kirk has showed drastic improvements too with his clutch numbers! In 07-08, he shot 14% during clutch time, 12% from 3-point range. Even the most diehard Hinrich fan would probably admit that those numbers don't reflect the innate greatness of our beloved Captain. This year, he's shooting .30 percent during clutch time, 20% from 3-point range, obviously a massive improvement!

Next year is going to be freaking awesome, without that selfish Gordon taking most of these important shots in our closest games down the stretch. I'm certain that Kirk will will step up another season of drastic improvement. Kirk will more than make up the difference in Gordon's lucky offensive numbers by shutting down Wade, Carter, TJ Ford, Devin Harris, Randy Foye and every other guard he's been unable to shut down this year because of rust, a bad hand, Gordon, inconsistent minutes, some bad Chinese food, Paxson, Rose, etc.

Did I mention that Hinrich's an inch taller too? I can't wait for next year!

 

[Newskoolbulls]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[??? ??????]

Are we really going to get rid of the guy shooting 62.1 TS% in the clutch?

 

[Newskoolbulls]

??? ?????? wrote:

Are we really going to get rid of the guy shooting 62.1 TS% in the clutch?

Hopefully not. Hopefully Pax gets JR to open up his wallet even if he has to pay the LT.

 

[collisrost]

The other shoe finally dropped!

Actually I agree with a lot of your points Fred. Gordon's clearly the superior player. I really hope the Bulls find a way to keep him. He's waaay better on offense and he's not a bad defender at all. And we certainly don't have any reason to trust Rose with the final shot just yet. As much as I love Rose, we need a dead-eye shooter in the halfcourt to take the last shot, not a guy who's at his best on the fast break.

 

[Fred]

collisrost wrote:

Gordon's clearly the superior player.

Really? I don't believe that for a second. I mean, it's hard to remember how great we were before Gordon arrived and became our best offensive player for the vast majority of the past 5 seasons. Let's take a moment to stroll down memory lane.

2007-08 33 49 .402
2006-07 49 33 .598
2005-06 41 41 .500
2004-05 47 35 .573 GORDON'S ROOKIE YEAR.
2003-04 23 59 .280 HINRICH'S ROOKIE YEAR.
2002-03 30 52 .366
2001-02 21 61 .256
2000-01 15 67 .183
1999-00 17 65 .207
1998-99 13 37 .260

You might find this hard to believe, but I'm really going to enjoy next year, when I won't have to defend this guy anymore, and his selfish scoring will be a burden on some other team. Then, I can focus on defending Rose, who'll be attacked by drones wondering why he's regressed with 5 defenders in the paint.

 

[Manic Devourer]

I'm looking forward to better ball movement, less hair pulling unforced turnovers next season and a legit NBA sized starting line up.

 

[J-Mart]

Manic Devourer wrote:

I'm looking forward to better ball movement, less hair pulling unforced turnovers next season and a legit NBA sized starting line up.

No question about it, Hinrich is a legit NBA sized SG...All problems solved

 

[Manic Devourer]

J-Mart wrote:

Manic Devourer wrote:

I'm looking forward to better ball movement, less hair pulling unforced turnovers next season and a legit NBA sized starting line up.

No question about it, Hinrich is a legit NBA sized SG...All problems solved

Bingo, that's exactly who I had in mind.

I guess I tend to be stupid enough to forget John Salmons is on our team.

 

[dougthonus]

Gordon is a damn good clutch player. When Rose becomes the goto guy, the value of that will decrease significantly. Though the primary problem would be if you don't think Rose will become a clutch player in the future.

 

[Morten Jensen]

I can see it both ways Doug. I agree with you that Derrick should (and will) be our closer and primary clutch player. However, clutch shots doesn't necessarily mean taking the final shot of the game. It can also mean rising your level of play in the fourth quarter of a tight game. Which Gordon does.

But really, there's no point in going through it all again. I know you, as well as everyone else, would prefer to see Ben back. So I was pretty much arguing a technicality

 

[collisrost]

The thing is, in dollar terms it should be possible to get Gordon at a discount or at least at fair value, rather than overpaying to keep from losing an asset like we did with all pour other guys, including Kirk. It's so frustrating that he's so good and the situation should be so much in the Bulls favor and it still doesn't look like happening.

 

[dougthonus]

Morten Jensen wrote:

I can see it both ways Doug. I agree with you that Derrick should (and will) be our closer and primary clutch player. However, clutch shots doesn't necessarily mean taking the final shot of the game. It can also mean rising your level of play in the fourth quarter of a tight game. Which Gordon does.

But really, there's no point in going through it all again. I know you, as well as everyone else, would prefer to see Ben back. So I was pretty much arguing a technicality

I think a big thing is that Salmons is going to take over Gordon's role. Thus far for the Bulls, Salmons has been a megastud in the clutch as well. Basically just as good as Gordon from an efficiency stand point and 38 points per 48 minutes.

Salmons/Rose will take over that clutch scoring role. Hinrich will become the supersub on a reasonable contract and give you defense.

Say you had Kobe, Jordan, and LeBron on one team, but there are 5 seconds left and you need one basket. Your success rate will only be marginally higher than if you only had 2 of the three. I think that's sort of what I'm getting at here. With each additional guy who's a volume clutch specialist the need for a clutch specialist and use of one is diminished somewhat.

I still hope we keep Gordon, but Fred has frequently painted a picture of nuclear winter next year. I bet we win more games next year than this year even if Gordon leaves and we make no significant additions to the team outside of our draft picks.

Granted, we may never solve that bet if we add Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire.

 

[Morten Jensen]

dougthonus wrote:

I think a big thing is that Salmons is going to take over Gordon's role. Thus far for the Bulls, Salmons has been a megastud in the clutch as well. Basically just as good as Gordon from an efficiency stand point and 38 points per 48 minutes.

Salmons have been awesome. No doubt about it. But can we expect him to maintain this level of clutch play over the next few seasons? Considering his age, I really don't know.

Say you had Kobe, Jordan, and LeBron on one team, but there are 5 seconds left and you need one basket. Your success rate will only be marginally higher than if you only had 2 of the three. I think that's sort of what I'm getting at here. With each additional guy who's a volume clutch specialist the need for a clutch specialist and use of one is diminished somewhat.

Kobe on the left wing, LeBron at the foul line area and Jordan on a clear-out from the right base-line. Game over.

Kidding aside, I agree that this could be a situation of too many chefs. But so far, we've seen Gordon still do well in the cluch alongside both Derrick and John. There's not something standing out as a bad play due too many clutch performers.

I still hope we keep Gordon, but Fred has frequently painted a picture of nuclear winter next year. I bet we win more games next year than this year even if Gordon leaves and we make no significant additions to the team outside of our draft picks.

Fred is just passionate. I like his enthusiasm. But I agree with you that regardless of Gordon or no Gordon, we will still take a step forward next season. My argument has always been that Gordon would give us two or three steps. Especially if we could, somehow, acquire Bosh also. That'd be like an extra ten steps alone.

Granted, we may never solve that bet if we add Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire.

If we lose Gordon but gain Bosh, then we'd also be in a terrific position. Anything else would be.. Well, unexpected to say the least.

 

[dougthonus]

Fred is just passionate. I like his enthusiasm. But I agree with you that regardless of Gordon or no Gordon, we will still take a step forward next season. My argument has always been that Gordon would give us two or three steps. Especially if we could, somehow, acquire Bosh also. That'd be like an extra ten steps alone.

I agree with this too. I think keeping Gordon will help us more than losing him, and so I hope we keep him. I just don't think losing him will be a franchise killer.

If we could keep Gordon and land Bosh this team could be really fearsome. If we land Bosh but lose Gordon I expect big improvement, but not as big, and those who dislike Gordon will use the improvement Bosh brings as a rationale to cover up how Gordon wasn't all that good to begin with.

 

[Rose1]

I'll clearly take Gordon over Hinrich. Simple, Gordon has more experience at the shooting guard position than Hinrich. Second, I hope you people don't think that Rose or Hinrich will replace his scoring. I don't think it's a good concept to have Rose out there trying to put 20 ppg on the board night after night and average a ample assist rate. My sister played ball with Rose a lot at Murray Park growing up and I can tell you from experience that he's not going to do that. D.Rose is too unselfish. So expect Hinrich to shoot them flat shots and miss time after time. That's like replacing Jordan with Dan Majerle.

 

[Morten Jensen]

I too dislike the idea of making Rose a high-scoring machine. However, he's at roughly 17 now, while not getting calls. He could get 20 a game without really trying to do so, IMO. If he plays around 40 minutes a night, 20 should come quite easily just by playing a lot of minutes and utilizing openings here and there. When the whistles starts to go his way, I think 20 may be inevitable.

But I catch your drift. I don't want Rose to be this 25-27 PPG scorer at the point guard position. I want him to get those numbers when we need offense, sure. But I'll be perfectly satisfied with steady PG play and 16-18 PPG.

 

[Hoover]

I've seen much discussion of late about Gordons "cluchness", I think it's important to remember that until this year Gordon has been terrible at last second shots. That's exluding his rookie year when he was money. I remember game after game where he would stand at the top key and either miss a jump shot or dribble off his foot. That said he's been great this year and I think it's much impart to Rose and now Salmons. Rose may not have hit any shots at theend, but his driving threat leaves BG open for better shots.

 

[dougthonus]

I think Rose will average around 20 points. Maybe low 20s. As you said, you just give him 2-3 calls that he doesn't get right now, and he's averaging 20 points right now without taking more shots.

He also needs to average a lot of points unless he radically increases his court vision. He certainly doesn't seem like a 10+ assist guy right now.

 

[Morten Jensen]

His rookie season, he was ridiculous. After that, he cooled off but remained one of the best clutch players in the league. So that's not entirely accurate Hoover.