If you use WAR, he was worth about 14 million last year. That's pretty nice to have out of a SS. That being said, he will never get market value before he hits free agency. That would be just stupid of the Cubs. That's like Hank Hill car shopping and paying the sticker price for a car. Why pay that when you can get it cheaper?
No way he'd get 5 million in his first year of arby. I think the split is 20/50/80(for three years, of course. With next year being an early year, it's almost certainly going be low, in the 20% of market value range). So if we say that he's been worth 30 million (7.7*4) over 3 years, that's 10 per year. You're looking at about 2 million for him this year. Then 5 for 2014, 8 for 2015. So we're looking at a bit less. Plus he gets this money guaranteed. I think this is a very fair deal. For both sides. Thinking that he would get market value is not going to fair well for you.
I think that the biggest cause of concern is his free swinging ness. He is shaping into a lower part of the order hitter. His BB rate has fallen, while his swinging at pitches out of the zone rate has risen. I mean even if he isn't the superstar bat we all want him to be, he's still a solid hitter and that with good defense at SS is wonderful. I just hope that if he continues this free swinging ness they put him lower in the order(as we get better players and the players we have out perform him), because I know that it will be easy to put him at the top because that's what people want, but it's not necessarily going to be what is best for the team.
And yet, if you use actual market examples and not faulty stats... you'd actually see where he'd be right in line with the extension that Hanley Ramirez got, within a couple of mil here and there anyway. Especially if you take into consideration the shift in in extending young players long term, the inflation of markets, and the fact that he's on track to put up similar performances overall (minus some HR power, but better defense) as Ramirez did following his extension, he's pretty much right there. Ramirez's extension was $5.5M in 2009, $7M in 2010, and $11M in 2011 to buy out his arbitration years. This is probably close to what Castro actually got... and not far off from what I am suggesting in the post you are responding to. After this Ramirez gets $15M in 2012, $15.5M in 2013, and $16M in 2014. Overall, his extension was 6 years/$70M. Castro got 7 years/$60... I suggested 6 years/$60. I also make a case for up to $79M is the FO went year-by-year steps as was the case with Hendry as the GM.
No, I'm not trying to suggest that Castro is as good as Hanley Ramirez is right now. Clearly he's not. He might come close at some point, but he's not there now. I'm comparing contract extensions and their value... as Ramirez's extension was the last major one for a similarly-aged SS (Castro is 22, Ramirez was 25). We also know that contract values only rise once the precedent has been set. Tulo's extension does not fit, as his first extension was granted only after his 1st full season (1.75 years of MLB service time)... and while he was still a year from possible arbitration (I'm not sure if he was a Super 2 or not). It was also done the year before Ramirez's extension was.
As for the rest of this, it's just crap. Take a look at what he's been doing since Rowson took over. His pitches/PA have gone from 3.1 while with Rudy in the dugout to 3.9 with Rowson's approach. His Ks have dropped from 17.4% while Rudy was still here, to 12.6% under Rowson's tutelage... and this has dropped in the past 5 days as well. Walk rate? 6.5% with Rowson, 2.3% with Rudy still in charge. Power is up with Rowson as well (5 HR, 5 3B, 9 2B with Rudy in 252 AB or a rate of .075 XBH/AB - 7 HR, 3 3B, 7 2B in 214 AB with Rowson or a rate of .079 XBH/AB with Rowson).
Coming into this season Castro walked about 5.2% of the time. This season so far: 4.2%... time with Rowson, 6.5%. Strike out rate for his career prior to this season was 13.7%. This year he sits at a whopping 15.2%, with Rowson, 12.6%. Pitches/PA in 2010 was 3.63, 2011 - 3.67, this year - 3.38, with Rowson 3.91.
Yes, clearly he's transformed directly into a free swinging hack that's not improving in any way... and would be a bottom of the lineup kind of guy. -note the sarcasm- I mean, all he's shown since Rowson has taken over is a trend of walking 46 times, striking out 88 times, compiling 21 HR, 21 2B, and 9 3B through 700 PA (650 AB).
The only thing that's actually down are his doubles and singles. If you actually watch a game now and then, you'll see that the defense has been shading him up the middle since early June, and possibly earlier than that. This is one of those things I keep telling you that you can't find in stats or box scores. Most of his balls in play were going up the middle, and half of them were grounders up the middle. Also, the vast majority of the outs he was committing were on ground balls up the middle. Over the past 3 weeks, adjustments have been made. We're starting to see them bear fruit now. Over 65% of his balls in play over the past 20 games have gone to the right side of the field. The majority of his hits have been going through a hole at 2B created by the up-the-middle shift placed upon him. Thus, his singles are back on the rise over the past 10 games... as is his BABiP. The issue with his doubles being down is the fact that the 3B has been getting pulled away from the line to fill the hole at SS. If you track the game logs and the split stats, you'll see that all but 17 of his career doubles (about 80%) have gone to either LF or RF. 32 of those doubles have been pulled into LF... 19 of which have been pulled as bouncers through the hole between SS and 3B, and eventually rolling out to the corner in LF. With the shift of the 3B filling this hole, his doubles have dropped. What we've seen over the past couple of weeks has been more line drives pulled over the 3B's head, rather than hard bouncers. Thus, his doubles over the past few games have begun to rise again.
It's starting to show, as coming into today, Castro was hitting .353/.405/.529/.935 with 1 HR, 3 2B, 3 BB and 2 K over his past 9 games (37 PA, 34 AB). Today he went 3/8 2B, 3B, BB, K in both games. That makes his slash line .357/.413/.571/.984 over his last 11 games. Clearly the slump has been busted... and a lot of it has to do with finally adjusting to a defensive shift after changing his approach at the plate to something dramatically more patient. I hope it continues, because if he's learning to hit to all fields, and to wait for drivable pitches... while taking more walks and striking out less... we could end up with a big time player in a couple of years.
And it'd be perfect timing for the Cubs to have finalized the extension while he was on the slump.
