CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wade

[Fred]

We recorded a show today with several interesting questions. Mark will hopefully post it tonight or tomorrow. But I'd like to see your thoughts on the following questions.

Before we get into the first question, I believe the Knicks may have given themselves a chance today. There were out of it if they could only sign one guy...but they managed to move Jeffries, and now they can sign 2. We may look back and regret not having enough to get McGrady, because that McGrady trade has given them a lifeline. It was either 2 max guys, or none will come. Now they have a chance.

#1. What percentage would you assign to each of the big 3 for their potential landing spot:

I may have said something different on the show, but here are my official percentages:

Lebron.
60% Cavs
30% New York
10% Miami

Wade.
50% Miami
30% Bulls
20% Knicks

Bosh.
25% Raptors
25% Bulls
25% Miami
25% Knicks

In other words, I have no idea on Bosh.

What do you think?

 

[TheStig]

I really don't think NY will get two guys. They really don't have a team if they do. They will be stripped to nothing and will only have two nba quality players outside of whoever they sign and no pg or center. I think its far more likely they go for a max fa, resign Lee and try to pry a guy like *** away. Lets say they sign Amare, ***, Duhon and Lee or JJ/Boozer/Lee/DuhonThey would then have:
Duhon/***/Gallinari/Stat/Lee or Duhon/JJ/Gallinari/Boozer/Lee

I just think tow max fas is too far fetched, they would be spread way too thin and would have to work some magic with Curry's expiring.

 

[Kush77]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

LeBron James
95% Cleveland
3% New York
2% Chicago

Wade
75% Miami
15% Chicago
10% New York

Bosh
35% Toronto
30% Miami
25% Chicago
10% New York

Looking forward to the show as always Fred.

 

[Dpauley23]

Fred wrote:

We recorded a show today with several interesting questions. Mark will hopefully post it tonight or tomorrow. But I'd like to see your thoughts on the following questions.

Before we get into the first question, I believe the Knicks may have given themselves a chance today. There were out of it if they could only sign one guy...but they managed to move Jeffries, and now they can sign 2. We may look back and regret not having enough to get McGrady, because that McGrady trade has given them a lifeline. It was either 2 max guys, or none will come. Now they have a chance.

#1. What percentage would you assign to each of the big 3 for their potential landing spot:

I may have said something different on the show, but here are my official percentages:

Lebron.
60% Cavs
30% New York
10% Miami

Wade.
50% Miami
30% Bulls
20% Knicks

Bosh.
25% Raptors
25% Bulls
25% Miami
25% Knicks

In other words, I have no idea on Bosh.

What do you think?

Lebron.
75% Cavs
25% Knicks

Wade.
85% Heat
10% Bulls
5% Knicks

Bosh.
55% Raptors
25% Heat
15% Bulls
5% Knicks

 

[clonetrooper264]

Well I'm still inclined to believe that LeBron stays put unless he and Wade/Bosh actually do talk to each other and agree to go sign somewhere together. Not sure how likely that is. Really, if one of these guys actually goes to NY, there's a high chance another will follow. If that happens...the Knicks don't seem so dumb after all. Oh...and we're screwed out of winning a championship for the next decade pretty much unless we end up getting LeBron.

With the assumption that all that I said above doesn't really matter.
LeBron
85% Cavs
5% Heat
5% Bulls
5% Knicks

Wade
70% Miami
25% Bulls
5% NY

Bosh
20% Raptors
30% Bulls
30% Miami
20% Knicks

The Knicks don't really have a team to support any of these guys so I don't think that they'll be any better off basketball wise signing with the Knicks. That is, of course, assuming that they don't talk to each other and all that stuff that I said before. This is really a crap shoot. Bosh is the only one I can see leaving outright.

 

[Shakes]

I think the real problem is the Knicks don't have draft picks. If they had a hope of drafting players to fill the caps, or use the picks to make trades happen, then two max FAs and nothing else could work out. As it stands, if two guys want to go there they better be real sure they can win with the help of minimum salary D-league players.

I'm not even sure they have the space for Amare/***/Lee/Duhon though. They have around 30-32 million based on a 53-55 million dollar cap. Amare will want 14+ starting salary, if *** and Lee want 10+ million per then you'll struggle to fit their starting salary (~8.5 each), there's no room for Duhon unless he'll play for the minimum.

If I had to bet I'd say each of the FAs are odds on to stay with their team, but overall there's maybe a 50% chance at least one of them moves.

 

[Dpauley23]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Kush77 wrote:

LeBron James
95% Cleveland
3% New York
2% Chicago

Wade
75% Miami
15% Chicago
10% New York

Bosh
35% Toronto
30% Miami
25% Chicago
10% New York

Looking forward to the show as always Fred.

Kush I was just wondering why don't you give Bosh more of chance to stay. It's not just you, but I always hear this guy is going to leave, but I see he has good chance of staying. Even with all this stuff that doesn't want to be second fiddle you still think he has chance of leaving?

 

[Shakes]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

I actually think Bosh is the least likely to leave. He seems to have a bit of Garnett in him, the sort of guy who values loyalty and will take management not being able to surround him with good talent until he gets old and desperate and can't take it any more.

 

[TheStig]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

I also think Bron leaving is very real depending on how they do in the playoffs. If Atlanta can stay ahead of Boston then Bron will have to face the Celtics in the second round. If the Celtics are healthy, I can see them beating the Cavs. If the cavs lose, Bron is gone. We will have a nice core with good depth to offer him here. We already have the two hardest postions to fill with Rose and Noah, all we would need is a better PF or Taj to improve and to turn kirk into a good SG the following year when he is an expiring. I wouldn't rule us out, if we can face Atlanta in the first round, I think we can make some noise.

 

[Dpauley23]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

TheStig wrote:

I also think Bron leaving is very real depending on how they do in the playoffs. If Atlanta can stay ahead of Boston then Bron will have to face the Celtics in the second round. If the Celtics are healthy, I can see them beating the Cavs. If the cavs lose, Bron is gone. We will have a nice core with good depth to offer him here. We already have the two hardest postions to fill with Rose and Noah, all we would need is a better PF or Taj to improve and to turn kirk into a good SG the following year when he is an expiring. I wouldn't rule us out, if we can face Atlanta in the first round, I think we can make some noise.

If Lebron leaves he'll have Bosh come with him

 

[TheStig]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Dpauley23 wrote:

TheStig wrote:

I also think Bron leaving is very real depending on how they do in the playoffs. If Atlanta can stay ahead of Boston then Bron will have to face the Celtics in the second round. If the Celtics are healthy, I can see them beating the Cavs. If the cavs lose, Bron is gone. We will have a nice core with good depth to offer him here. We already have the two hardest postions to fill with Rose and Noah, all we would need is a better PF or Taj to improve and to turn kirk into a good SG the following year when he is an expiring. I wouldn't rule us out, if we can face Atlanta in the first round, I think we can make some noise.

If Lebron leaves he'll have Bosh come with him

I don't think Bosh is leaving. His team has improved and he thinks of himself as a franchise player. I see Stat going to Miami with Wade, Bosh staying put and if Bron gets upset in the playoffs, I see him here. If Bosh does leave, he said he wants to be the man and I think will be happy to have Rose defer to him.

 

[pinkizdead]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

the team in it's present construction is best suited for bosh. hinrich is our 2 guard for the next couple year. i hope you guys like the hinrich special.

 

[Fred]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Dpauley23 wrote:

TheStig wrote:

I also think Bron leaving is very real depending on how they do in the playoffs. If Atlanta can stay ahead of Boston then Bron will have to face the Celtics in the second round. If the Celtics are healthy, I can see them beating the Cavs. If the cavs lose, Bron is gone. We will have a nice core with good depth to offer him here. We already have the two hardest postions to fill with Rose and Noah, all we would need is a better PF or Taj to improve and to turn kirk into a good SG the following year when he is an expiring. I wouldn't rule us out, if we can face Atlanta in the first round, I think we can make some noise.

If Lebron leaves he'll have Bosh come with him

Are they close? What is the relationship like between the 3? How close are LeBron and Wade? Out of these 3, which 2 are the closest?

I have no idea...hoping someone can shed some light.

 

[pinkizdead]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

are there any dark horse teams with cap room?

 

[Fred]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

pinkizdead wrote:

are there any dark horse teams with cap room?

The Wizards.

 

[Shakes]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Fred wrote:

pinkizdead wrote:

are there any dark horse teams with cap room?

The Wizards.

How does LeBron feel about his team mates trying to pop a cap in his ass?

 

[??? ??????]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

I think there is a near 0 percent chance that Lebron leaves after the Cavs win the championship this year.

I think the Bulls positioned the Eastern Conference in a way that could land them Dwyane Wade. What I mean by that, is the Bulls made trades today that improved the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Bobcats.

Miami is currently the 7th seed. Charlotte is a 1/2 game behind them, and the Bucks are 2 1/2 games behidn them. If we can hold on and make the playoffs (5th seed would be ideal) while the Bucks and Cats pass up the Heat, the Heat will miss the playoffs.

With Lebron now having a sidekick in Jamison, I think Wade will realize that it is going to be difficult to win a championship. If we make the playoffs, while Wade is sitting out, I think we have a great chance of signing him.

 

[Donovangian]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Lebron.
75% Cavs why leave a title contender that can pay you more money, in his hometown for a rebuilding team.
25% Knicks the problem with the knicks is that with two max guys.......What else do they have?

Wade.
65% Heat He wants to stay in Mia. And the only thing that will make him leave is that he clearly sees that the team being built is not good enough on paper to beat the CAVS.
30% Bulls the idea is great. BUT.. with no big man Dwade wont come home.
5% Knicks Dwade has an ego he wont play second fiddle to labron.

Bosh.
45% Bulls The Bulls have the best total package. Since bosh pays canadian taxes as well as taxes in the US the bulls and knicks can actually pay him more money. Also the bulls have the best collection of talent.
40% Raptors He like being the superstar of the team. He's not going to sign with a team where wade or Lebron signs. Bank on it!
15% Knicks The thought is nice but he has already played the waiting game for a team to rebuild.

IF THE BULLS PLAY THEIR CARDS RIGHT THEY WILL GET CB4!

 

[postdiction]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Fred wrote:

Are they close? What is the relationship like between the 3? How close are LeBron and Wade? Out of these 3, which 2 are the closest?

I have no idea...hoping someone can shed some light.

Lebron and Wade are very close they stay at each other's house when the teams play. As far as I know Bosh is friends with LBJ and Wade but not close like LBJ and Wade.

I think this friendship stuff is being blown out of proportion. You have to remember that these guys have been pampered since 8th grade. They have huge egos and all of them want to be the alpha dog. I believe they would rather try to win separately than play 2nd fiddle to the other super star.

I think we need to go after Bosh hard 1st because this is how I think it will go down:

Wade and LBJ have the most leverage and won't sign first unless they are guaranteed to have a 2nd allstar.

STAT is from Florida and probably want to play there. He wants a max and most teams will balk at giving him the max. Miami will give him a max first because they know Wade will sign in Miami if STAT is there. The only way Wade doesn't sign in Miami is if he is the only all-star in Miami. Wade has no love for Chicago.

Now LBJ won't go to NYC alone so NYC will first have to sign Bosh or another all-star then and only then will LBJ sign in NYC(if he wants to leave Cleveland). Remember LBJ doesn't like D'Antoni's system because of the lack of D.

So if we get Bosh now LBJ won't have a reason to go to NYC so he will have to chose between Cleveland or a S&T with us. I think he chooses us.

However like I said in the start we have to go hard after Bosh. We have to be like:

"Bosh you are our #1 and only target in free agency, not LBJ not Wade not STAT, only you because we know you are the alpha-dog that can take us to a championship. We didn't even contact those other guys at 12:01 because we only wanted to go after the best player in the nba, we only wanted the superstar of superstars, we only wanted you. Come play with D.Rose and Noah...lead us to championship. At any other place you will be called a winner a great player in Chicago you will be called a legend. We will have to make room for your jersey between MJ and Pip. Carve out your place in history with the Chicago Bulls."

Getting Bosh first is the key. Lets get those plane tickets to Toronto.



lol just my 2 cents I know I'll probably get ripped apart for this but this is how i see it will go down.

 

[RC_Skinny22]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

postdiction wrote:

Wade and LBJ have the most leverage and won't sign first unless they are guaranteed to have a 2nd allstar.

Hmm with Rose we already have an allstar!