CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wade

[houheffna]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Wade has no love for Chicago? Says who???

 

[RPK]

LeBron James:

50/50 chance he'll sign with New York. I just see him loving the New York Superstar limelight so much that he is compelled to sign there.

The other 50% would go to the Cavs. I think it comes down to how loyal LeBron feels to his home town and if the Cavs win a championship. Cleveland wins a championship and their chances go up to 90 percent. He'd become a huuuge ****** bag to win a championship and just skip town the year after.

Of course that leaves the Bulls at 0% chance of signing James. Not the end of the world.

Dwyane Wade:

80% chance he stays in Miami. The Heat will do everything they can to make Wade happy and Wade loves Miami/warm weather. It would take the Heat completely bombing out at signing any free agents. Their best free agent bet (besides resigning Wade) would be to get Bosh, Amare, or Boozer.

Bulls at least have the remaining 20%. If wade becomes frustrated with the Heat mgmt, I think Wade sees a bright future with the Bulls. They could surround Wade with better teammates then what Wade has in Miami. And of course being from Chicago would help.

As far as Wade signing with the Knicks, I'd say that falls at 0%. Wade is not sharing the spotlight with James.

Bosh:

I agree with Fred that Bosh is a mystery. Will he be willing to be second banana to a Wade or James? he'd be the top banana here in Chicago from day one. I hope that is enough. Bosh reportedly likes Toronto, so that is still a possibility too.

For percentages, I'd say:

Bosh resigning with the raptors: 33%

Bosh to the Bulls: 33%

Bosh to the Heat: 33%

Bosh to New York: 0%. He's not going there alone, and the Knicks don't have enough cap space to sign 2 max guys.

 

[Fred]

As a note of clarification, I am not a Tyrus Thomas-hater, despite Mark's comments on the front page post. My one source within the Bulls organization raved about his efforts with kids. He spent a ton of time with the kids and the community. He deserves credit for that.

He was one of the most athletically gifted Bulls I've ever seen. My biggest problem with Tyrus was his incredibly bad defensively rebounding fundamentals, which for some reason didn't improve, despite efforts from the coaching staff. He consistently failed to box his man out, or even try, and this often led to 2nd chance shots. I also wished he would have attacked the offensive boards with more ferocity. That said, he was saddled with VDN, an overmatched coach. Maybe Brown can work some magic with him, because he has the talent.

 

[Bullsman24]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Lebron.
80% Cavs
10% Chicago
10% Miami
0% New York

could join Wade or rose but prob would stay

Wade.
60% Miami
40% Bulls
0% Knicks

could come to Chicago but prob not

Bosh.
25% Raptors
50% Bulls
25% Miami
0% Knicks

could join wade but prob would join the bulls for their emergence

 

[postdiction]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

houheffna wrote:

Wade has no love for Chicago? Says who???

Says me.

 

[Dpauley23]

Fred wrote:

As a note of clarification, I am not a Tyrus Thomas-hater, despite Mark's comments on the front page post. My one source within the Bulls organization raved about his efforts with kids. He spent a ton of time with the kids and the community. He deserves credit for that.

He was one of the most athletically gifted Bulls I've ever seen. My biggest problem with Tyrus was his incredibly bad defensively rebounding fundamentals, which for some reason didn't improve, despite efforts from the coaching staff. He consistently failed to box his man out, or even try, and this often led to 2nd chance shots. I also wished he would have attacked the offensive boards with more ferocity. That said, he was saddled with VDN, an overmatched coach. Maybe Brown can work some magic with him, because he has the talent.

I think the biggest problem with Tyrus is that he thinks he's SF. Anyone in Tyrus circle will tell you that what he thinks and why he plays on the perimeter so much. Although he did get rob as he was outperforming Taj and lost his starting spot to injury. He was playing awesome in his first 3 games back and he should of been given his job back. As for his rebounding the guy is still rebounding the ball and he helped them back time as Taj just isn't that great of defensive rebounder

 

[Diddy1122]

LeBron:
CLE - 95%
CHI - 0%
MIA - 2%
NYK - 3%

Wade:
MIA - 75%
CHI - 20%
NYK - 5%

Bosh:
TOR - 40%
CHI - 35%
MIA - 20%
NYK - 5%

Out of all the players I'd say Bosh has the best chance of becoming a Bull. First, the taxes in Canada suck. Why do you think no one signs a big deal there? Bosh & Carter were the only 2 to ever re-up there. Second, Toronto is only good because the East sucks & he's having an amazing year. Third, we have a legitamate All-Star & a solid group of players to compete for a top spot in the East & a shot at a title if he comes here. Fourth, not only do we have an All-Star but he's a willing passer who's dedicated to the sport & dedicated to winning above all else.

Lebron is not leaving. They are the best team in the league with a REALLY good shot at a title this year. In the highly unlikely scenario that he does leave, it will be to NY because he loves NY & would probably revel at the chance to bring that franchise back to championship levels & attempt to stake his claim as not just the GOAT but the greatest Knick of all time.

Wade could come here but I think it's more likely he will stay & Miami will pair him with either Stat or Boozer, who already owns a home there. If I was Wade I wouldn't want to leave a place thats sunny & warm year round with no state taxes & Pat Riley running the show. Only way he goes to NY is if Lebron does.

 

[Fred]

The more I think about it, I'm starting to doubt why Wade would come. Over the course of a deal, Miami could offer him 20 million more.

And that's not even factoring in the tax benefits, which are very substantial when you factor in New York, and substantial when you factor in Illinois. There is a reason why Tiger lives in Orlando instead of Cali.

NBA MAX RULES:
The maximum amount of money a player can sign for is contingent on the number of years that player has played and the total of the salary cap. For a player with 7–9 years of experience, the maximum is $11,000,000 or 30% of the cap (2009-10: $17,310,000), and for a player with 10+ years of experience, the maximum is $14,000,000 or 35% of the cap (2008-2009: $20,195,000).[4]

To make the math easy, let's say any team can offer Wade 20,000 a year. (I know it's less than this on average, but let's make the math easy.)

Miami can offer 6 years: Total value: 120,000,000
New York, 5 years: 100,000,000
Chicago, 5 years: 100,000,000

Real value when state income tax if factored in:
8.5 million to the state of New York = 100,000 - 8.5 = 91,500,000
3.5 million to the state of Illinois (soon going up) = 96,500,000
0 going to the state of Florida = 120,000,000

So, would you give up 28.5 million to play in New York?
Would you give up 23 million to play in Chicago?

I know these numbers may be a little off, but not by much. And I know I'm not factoring in the contract Wade can sign in Year 6 after 5 years of a NY or Chicago deal, but it will certainly be LESS than 20 million...based on what Stern wants, MUCH less. We haven't even started talking about the ridiculous property taxes in NY and IL compared to Florida. Maybe we should compare the weather?

Two more things to consider:
1. The Bush tax cuts are set to expire this year. These 2001 cuts were across the board, Obama has said that he will extend the cuts for every income level BUT the top level, aka Wade's level. (I'm actually not sure if he will extend it to our level at all, but I'm CERTAIN Wade's level will expire). Therefore, he'll lose an additional 4.6% of future salary to the federal government. Basically, almost half of every dollar he makes will go to the federal government.

2. He's recently divorced. Take another half of whatever he has and give it to the ex-wife. I don't think it's right, but it's a fact.

Obviously, he's made a ton of dough. He's got enough to make him happy for the rest of his life. But the cash still matters more than you think.

Therefore, I'm less inclined to believe he's going. I'm 95% sure he's staying.

 

[houheffna]

Says me.

Well that and a dollar will get me a double cheeseburger from McDonald's...thanks.

 

[Diddy1122]

Fred wrote:

The more I think about it, I'm starting to doubt why Wade would come. Over the course of a deal, Miami could offer him 20 million more.

And that's not even factoring in the tax benefits, which are very substantial when you factor in New York, and substantial when you factor in Illinois. There is a reason why Tiger lives in Orlando instead of Cali.

NBA MAX RULES:
The maximum amount of money a player can sign for is contingent on the number of years that player has played and the total of the salary cap. For a player with 7–9 years of experience, the maximum is $11,000,000 or 30% of the cap (2009-10: $17,310,000), and for a player with 10+ years of experience, the maximum is $14,000,000 or 35% of the cap (2008-2009: $20,195,000).[4]

To make the math easy, let's say any team can offer Wade 20,000 a year. (I know it's less than this on average, but let's make the math easy.)

Miami can offer 6 years: Total value: 120,000,000
New York, 5 years: 100,000,000
Chicago, 5 years: 100,000,000

Real value when state income tax if factored in:
8.5 million to the state of New York = 100,000 - 8.5 = 91,500,000
3.5 million to the state of Illinois (soon going up) = 96,500,000
0 going to the state of Florida = 120,000,000

So, would you give up 28.5 million to play in New York?
Would you give up 23 million to play in Chicago?

I know these numbers may be a little off, but not by much. And I know I'm not factoring in the contract Wade can sign in Year 6 after 5 years of a NY or Chicago deal, but it will certainly be LESS than 20 million...based on what Stern wants, MUCH less. We haven't even started talking about the ridiculous property taxes in NY and IL compared to Florida. Maybe we should compare the weather?

Two more things to consider:
1. The Bush tax cuts are set to expire this year. These 2001 cuts were across the board, Obama has said that he will extend the cuts for every income level BUT the top level, aka Wade's level. (I'm actually not sure if he will extend it to our level at all, but I'm CERTAIN Wade's level will expire). Therefore, he'll lose an additional 4.6% of future salary to the federal government. Basically, almost half of every dollar he makes will go to the federal government.

2. He's recently divorced. Take another half of whatever he has and give it to the ex-wife. I don't think it's right, but it's a fact.

Obviously, he's made a ton of dough. He's got enough to make him happy for the rest of his life. But the cash still matters more than you think.

Therefore, I'm less inclined to believe he's going. I'm 95% sure he's staying.

That made my head hurt Fred. Just what I needed to end my work week. :laugh:

But I agree. I don't think he'll go anywhere & I see Miami as the likely location for Stat if he opts out or Boozer, who recently purchased an off-season home there. There's just too many incentives for him to stay.

Now Bosh on the other hand will get raped by the Canadians & their taxes. And let's face it, Toronto is a wanna-be Chicago. The city looks similar, the climate is similar, even the people are similar, but it's only a facsimile of the greatest city in the US. Why go for the cheap flea market imitation when you can have the real thing? Let me pitch the team & the city to the Predator & he'll be jumping at the chance to suit up in the Madhouse on Madison.

 

[Shakes]

Dpauley23 wrote:

I think the biggest problem with Tyrus is that he thinks he's SF. Anyone in Tyrus circle will tell you that what he thinks and why he plays on the perimeter so much. Although he did get rob as he was outperforming Taj and lost his starting spot to injury. He was playing awesome in his first 3 games back and he should of been given his job back. As for his rebounding the guy is still rebounding the ball and he helped them back time as Taj just isn't that great of defensive rebounder

Well Tyrus' good 3 games were followed by 10 useless ones, so it's hard to say Vinny made the wrong call in keeping Taj in the lineup. Rebounding wise they're putting up just about equal numbers this year, but Taj clearly wins in my book as he's gotten better as the year has gone on, and he gets more offensive rebounds, which is a more valuable skill.

 

[Shakes]

Fred wrote:

The more I think about it, I'm starting to doubt why Wade would come. Over the course of a deal, Miami could offer him 20 million more.

That's always been the problem with getting a max guy. It's also why I think LeBron is the most likely to leave. He's the only one who is a big enough name he can possibly make up for the lost contract money elsewhere.

I really think Chicago is the place to come to make the most money. It's not the biggest of the big markets, but it has one advantage: Michael Jordan. To the extent people outside of the USA have heard of basketball, it's all Jordan and the Bulls. Nike (and hence Jordan) made a lot of money selling shoes with Jordan's name to people who don't really give a crap about basketball. There's a big market waiting to be tapped if someone else can become that guy.

If LeBron can win championships in Chicago I really think there's a chance they can market him as the "new Michael Jordan" to these sorts of people, and there's mountains of cash to be made. I just hope someone close to LeBron is thinking the same way.

 

[Diddy1122]

Shakes wrote:

Dpauley23 wrote:

I think the biggest problem with Tyrus is that he thinks he's SF. Anyone in Tyrus circle will tell you that what he thinks and why he plays on the perimeter so much. Although he did get rob as he was outperforming Taj and lost his starting spot to injury. He was playing awesome in his first 3 games back and he should of been given his job back. As for his rebounding the guy is still rebounding the ball and he helped them back time as Taj just isn't that great of defensive rebounder

Well Tyrus' good 3 games were followed by 10 useless ones, so it's hard to say Vinny made the wrong call in keeping Taj in the lineup. Rebounding wise they're putting up just about equal numbers this year, but Taj clearly wins in my book as he's gotten better as the year has gone on, and he gets more offensive rebounds, which is a more valuable skill.

Agreed. I've said this mutiple times, but coaches go with players they know they can trust out on the court. Taj earned that trust in just a matter of games whereas Tyrus never earned it in 1 1/2 years with Vinny. Tyrus couldn't get the trust of Skiles or Boylan before that, the guy is just uncoachable right now. His attitude & overall approach to the game is what got him shipped out of town. It's a shame & it really pisses me off because if he just worked hard he could be a really, really good player. Maybe someday he will finally get it, but that day was not today or tomorrow or the day after that.

If he pulls this same crap with Larry Brown, he's a assured an assigned seat on the bench for the remainder of the season.

 

[Kush77]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Guys,
I loved the part of the show when Fred had to stop and tell his wife he was on the phone. Mark goes through a trade and Fred is like "what did you say?"

Classic.

 

[postdiction]

houheffna wrote:

Says me.

Well that and a dollar will get me a double cheeseburger from McDonald's...thanks.

Well if you are man enough to challenge my statement lets make a friendly bet that Wade isn't coming to Chicago as FA next year?

what do you think burger boy?

 

[Fred]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Kush77 wrote:

Guys,
I loved the part of the show when Fred had to stop and tell his wife he was on the phone. Mark goes through a trade and Fred is like "what did you say?"

Classic.

lol. I thought Mark would cut out the family banter, but like "Let It Be", a lot of the commentary was left in. Total choas. Couldn't believe the devastation the kids left while I was concentrating on an in-depth analysis of the Wizards.

 

[TheStig]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

pinkizdead wrote:

are there any dark horse teams with cap room?

NJ is a dark horse team. They have a good PG and C. They will have a top 4 pick and about 25-28 in cap room. They can max out a pf, draft a good wing and still make a competitive offer to a ***. I think they got a good shot at Amare or Boozer.

 

[pinkizdead]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

if NJ moved to new york, they would be a very appealing team, but their record is complete crap.

 

[TheStig]

Re:CBE 91 Question: The odds for LeBron, Bosh, Wad

Well they were hit by injuries. They have a lot of assests coming and they don't even have to do it by FA. They can absorb a contract from another team similar to the martin trade and have a top 4 pick. They are also moving to ny in a couple of years.