Chris Godwin probably getting franchise tag

[Montucky]

I don't think it's a high probability transaction. It feels like one of those moves that go in someone's 'mock offseason' where everyone nods and says 'that's smart' without thinking how improbable it really is.

On paper as a Bears fan it makes perfect sense. The Bears essentially throw the tag on Robinson just so they can get something for him. It seems like such an obvious value creating solution that every team should do it if they have a valued pending FA and are not using the tag, right?

So, then why doesn't it happen more? The logic of 'why' the tag-and-trade should happen doesn't map over to teams actually doing it.

These days it happens every off-season. Again, you are working with an outdated premise that this is a rare occurrence. Its not. Not anymore

I have yet to see someone make a compelling case why a WR needy team would choose making Robinson one of the highest paid WRs AND give up draft capital over other FA WRs or drafting someone. At this time you are only looking at things from the Bears point of view where they get picks for a player who's currently not under contract.

I have repeatedly explained why the Ravens require a wide receiver of exactly Allen Robinson II's profile. He would also be immensely helpful to the Dolphins. Seeing as wide receiver is a position where five of them can be on the field at once a few teams may surprise you with their interest.

And again, the tag-and-trade is an off-season ritual at this point. We haven't gone a year without it since 2017. When you say its not going to happen you're the one arguing against history.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Great info provided and the updated tag and trade chart is relevant. One item of significant relevance is since 2008 (13 seasons) there have been 7 tag and trade deals. That's pretty much 0.5/season, which suggests they aren't that common despite fan's always bringing up how easy it is to perform.

RE: Team would already have negotiated the deal - This is true, but it still requires teams with cap space to dance. In short, he can't be traded to a team like my Eagles. Essentially it's the same bidding war that would have happened in free agency, but those teams also have to give up draft capital to make the deal work. It's just less bidders at the table.

RE: traded 3rd > comp 3rd - I do agree with you and your reasons are sound. The item that I think you are ignoring is the risk associated with franchise tagging him. The tag is not the team leverage creator it used to be. Now there's definite risk involved. The worst case scenario is they tag him, bids are lower then the Bears would like and you have a disgruntled player being forced to play under the tag. Remember, Robinson tore his ACL right before free agency with the Jags and last year was a good soldier, but he'll be 28 and has to know playing 16 games under the tag directly risks what his last big pay day will look like. If I was his agent I'd tell him to sign the tag, play 6 games, then sit out the rest, which would totally fuck over the Bears, but it would be justified because the franchise tag is looked at as them fucking him over.


To be clear, I'm saying a tag and trade is unlikely to happen. I completely think it makes sense for the Bears to explore the option, but I wouldn't expect it for all the reasons I mentioned. Not only is it rare but the lower cap + deep FA WR market + deep WR Prospect pool makes it less likely to happen.

And if the Tagged player doesn't sign, the team still has to account for the Cap space for the tagged player. So you could have a situation where a disgruntled AR is not playing, yet the Bears are dealing with 16 - 18 mil in cap. Now, they would recoup it next year, but that does little to help this year.

Yannick Ngakoue is the latest example of what could go wrong.

 

[Montucky]

And if the Tagged player doesn't sign, the team still has to account for the Cap space for the tagged player. So you could have a situation where a disgruntled AR is not playing, yet the Bears are dealing with 16 - 18 mil in cap. Now, they would recoup it next year, but that does little to help this year.

Yannick Ngakoue is the latest example of what could go wrong.

The Jaguars got a second for Yannick Ngakoue (the fifth wound up being conditional actually). A few months later he was worth a third for the Vikings. Now he's a free agent and nobody seems particularly interested in his services.

I'd say that went pretty alright for the Jaguars. Ngakoue probably wouldn't have fetched them even a compensatory third if he had the same 2020 season in Jacksonville that he had in Minneapolis and Baltimore.

 

[Adipost]

If the Bears are going to have to replace Robinson, Marvin Jones is the guy short term. He does everything Robinson does, he’s just older (great hands/route running). And even if he’s lost a half step due to age, he probably still has a step on Robinson speed wise.

 

[nc0gnet0]

The Jaguars got a second for Yannick Ngakoue (the fifth wound up being conditional actually). A few months later he was worth a third for the Vikings. Now he's a free agent and nobody seems particularly interested in his services.

I'd say that went pretty alright for the Jaguars. Ngakoue probably wouldn't have fetched them even a compensatory third if he had the same 2020 season in Jacksonville that he had in Minneapolis and Baltimore.

And yet the jags thought they could get a 1st+ for him. they didn't. DE is a more premier position than WR. The "trade" didn't happen until August 31st well after the draft, thus tossing out the "getting draft picks this year" argument out the window.

So the Bears COULD tag AR, and he could refuse to sign the tag, thus eliminating any chance of negotiating a deal for max value, and the Bears are stuck in Cap hell, not able to sign any FA with the money they allocated to the AR tag. Then he rolls in Aug 31, long after any of the top tier FA's are gone. Maybe you get a 3rd, a few positions higher than the comp pick next year.

 

[Montucky]

And yet the jags thought they could get a 1st+ for him. they didn't. DE is a more premier position than WR. The "trade" didn't happen until August 31st well after the draft, thus tossing out the "getting draft picks this year" argument out the window.

The issue I think you encounter with Yannick Ngakoue though is that he isn't very good and hasn't been for some time. Allen Robinson II meanwhile is pretty good and has been for some time. I agree about the premium position effect, but Ngakoue isn't really even a starter-caliber player while Robinson II is *arguably* one of the ten best in the NFL at his position. Certainly one of the ten best wide receivers of his particularly profile.

 

[nc0gnet0]

The issue I think you encounter with Yannick Ngakoue though is that he isn't very good and hasn't been for some time. Allen Robinson II meanwhile is pretty good and has been for some time. I agree about the premium position effect, but Ngakoue isn't really even a starter-caliber player while Robinson II is *arguably* one of the ten best in the NFL at his position. Certainly one of the ten best wide receivers of his particularly profile.

Are you out of your fricking mind?? Granted last season sucked for Yannick, but he was thought of as a top level and ascending DE heading into that year.

" Ngakoue’s total of 37.5 career sacks in four seasons is the most by a Jaguars player after 63 career games. Ngakoue has not had fewer than eight sacks in a season since his arrival in Jacksonville. He has forced 14 fumbles and has combined for 121 tackles. "

Jaguars trading Yannick Ngakoue to Vikings for two draft picks

In exchange for Yannick Ngakoue, the Jaguars will receive a 2021 second- round pick and a conditional fifth-round selection.

www.jacksonville.com

Yannick was 25
AR will be 28

 

[Montucky]

Are you out of your fricking mind?? Granted last season sucked for Yannick, but he was thought of as a top level and ascending DE heading into that year.

" Ngakoue’s total of 37.5 career sacks in four seasons is the most by a Jaguars player after 63 career games. Ngakoue has not had fewer than eight sacks in a season since his arrival in Jacksonville. He has forced 14 fumbles and has combined for 121 tackles. "

Jaguars trading Yannick Ngakoue to Vikings for two draft picks

In exchange for Yannick Ngakoue, the Jaguars will receive a 2021 second- round pick and a conditional fifth-round selection.

www.jacksonville.com

He was never again as good as he was in 2017 when he played across from Calais Campbell, who himself should get into the Hall of Fame but probably won't because of people's obsession with statistics for positions like defensive end. The truth is 2020 Yannick Ngakoue wasn't really anything more than a realization of the player he has been ever since he lost Campbell on the opposite side, its just that nobody watched any Jaguars football in the second half of 2018 or 2019 season to notice.

 

[nc0gnet0]

He was never again as good as he was in 2017 when he played across from Calais Campbell, who himself should get into the Hall of Fame but probably won't because of people's obsession with statistics for positions like defensive end. The truth is 2020 Yannick Ngakoue wasn't really anything more than a realization of the player he has been ever since he lost Campbell on the opposite side, its just that nobody watched any Jaguars football in the second half of 2018 or 2019 season to notice.

Meh, his drop off wasn't any less significant than khali macks.

 

[Montucky]

Meh, his drop off wasn't any less significant than khali macks.

Mack's falloff from arguably best football player in the world in 2018 to now average is a much more significant decline than Ngakoue going from player marginally more impactful than Mack is now to rotational edge rusher.

 

[Pegger]

I would say AR is similar or of greater value as Jarvis Landry at the time of his tag and trade, so if CHI could get a early 4th +, I could see it happening from the CHI stand point. I think a 3rd would be a no brainer, but not as likely.

If they tag him and he plays for the$16M that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. And, no way I see him giving up $10M to sit after 6 games.

Look back at the 2018 season. Both the WR FA and draft pool of players pail in comparison to this season AND let's not forget teams have less money then they anticipated.

Landry got a 2018 4th and a 2019 5th when there were less options.

Let's also not forget last year was a really good draft for WRs. Teams are expecting some of their 2020 picks to step up. A staggering 37 WRs were drafted in 2020.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

Mack's falloff from arguably best football player in the world in 2018 to now average is a much more significant decline than Ngakoue going from player marginally more impactful than Mack is now to rotational edge rusher.

This fool thinks Mack is just an average player.

 

[Montucky]

Look back at the 2018 season. Both the WR FA and draft pool of players pail in comparison to this season AND let's not forget teams have less money then they anticipated.

Landry got a 2018 4th and a 2019 5th when there were less options.

Let's also not forget last year was a really good draft for WRs. Teams are expecting some of their 2020 picks to step up. A staggering 37 WRs were drafted in 2020.

The Miami Dolphins are waiting for their seventh round pick out of the Naval Academy to step up? Because that's the only wide receiver they drafted last year. If the Ravens were so enthralled with Devin Duvernay or James Proche I think we would know by now.

Landry is a good number two no doubt, but Robinson II is a legit number one. There's a pretty big gap in talent here.

I do think its funny, you accused me of desperately searching for reasons Robinson II will be traded but you seem to be doing the exact same thing in reverse. I hope you can at least admit that tag-and-trades aren't this super-scarce tactic that are never utilized.

 

[Pegger]

The Miami Dolphins are waiting for their seventh round pick out of the Naval Academy to step up? Because that's the only wide receiver they drafted last year. If the Ravens were so enthralled with Devin Duvernay or James Proche I think we would know by now.

Landry is a good number two no doubt, but Robinson II is a legit number one. There's a pretty big gap in talent here.

I do think its funny, you accused me of desperately searching for reasons Robinson II will be traded but you seem to be doing the exact same thing in reverse. I hope you can at least admit that tag-and-trades aren't this super-scarce tactic that are never utilized.

RE: Dolphins: They have have:

• 28 year old Parker signed until 2023
• 29 year old Albert Wilson
• 29 year old Grant signed until 2023
• 24 year old Preston Williams

You are making the argument that they need a WR? That group is way better than most the receiving cores in the league.

RE: Ravens: They have:

• 24 year old Marquise Brown - who was a first rounder
• 25 year old Miles Boykin
• 24 year old Devin Duvernay

I'd say that group is largely unproven, but they are young and a part of the Ravens development. I'd add, the 2019 Ravens who set passing efficiency records fielded a rookie Brown, rookie Boykin, Seth Roberts and Willie Snead. The 2012 Superbowl winning team had a 32 year old Boldin, Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones.

Trying to create a need on another team for Allen Robinson is hard when you really look at it. Then when you factor in that whomever has that need will be handing over a top 5 WR contract along with draft capital it becomes less likely.

RE: Landry vs Robinson - Personally I prefer Robinson, but the time in Landry's first 4 seasons he had 400 catches for 4038 yards and was only going to be 26 years old. Robinson definitely has produced more in terms of yardage per season/game, but he's going to be 29 years old.

RE: tag-and-trade scarcity - It still doesn't happen often. The highest number of tag-and-trades ever is 3. That's a pretty low number and just to reiterate my points with a lower cap, deep WR free agency pool and deep WR draft I think someone wanting to give up draft capital AND make the WR a top paid player is unlikely. You've said it's a 50-50 split that Robinson gets tag-and-traded. That's nuts. In the history of the tag-and-trade it's only happened to one WR (Landry). Not only are you saying it will be the WR position, but you are "50-50" that it will be Robinson?

I have a question for you - while you are making an argument why other teams should be willing to give up draft capital and a large contract for Robinson why not just keep him? If you are convinced he's the best WR available I have another WR needy team..... DA BEARS!!!! He's got no bad blood with the team, so why not just argue he should get extended?

 

[Pegger]

The Jaguars got a second for Yannick Ngakoue (the fifth wound up being conditional actually). A few months later he was worth a third for the Vikings. Now he's a free agent and nobody seems particularly interested in his services.

I'd say that went pretty alright for the Jaguars. Ngakoue probably wouldn't have fetched them even a compensatory third if he had the same 2020 season in Jacksonville that he had in Minneapolis and Baltimore.

Are you advocating to follow the Jags lead in how they handle players leaving a team?

You know they had a talented team, pretty much fucked it all up and completely earned the #1 overall pick because they were the worst team in the league, right?

Since 2017 they have went 12-36. I really don't think they add creditability to your argument the way you think it does.

 

[Montucky]

RE: Dolphins: They have have:

• 28 year old Parker signed until 2023
• 29 year old Albert Wilson
• 29 year old Grant signed until 2023
• 24 year old Preston Williams

I think the Bears receivers even minus Allen Robinson II are better than that group. I wouldn't trade Darnell Mooney for all four of those guys.

RE: Ravens: They have:

• 24 year old Marquise Brown - who was a first rounder
• 25 year old Miles Boykin
• 24 year old Devin Duvernay

And that might be worse than the Dolphins. Though they do have Mark Andrews so it doesn't tell the whole story. Nobody you've named is anywhere near the players Anquan Boldin. Anquan Boldin has the ninth most receptions all time. I'm not a stats guy but you don't see that kind of usage if you can't play. Torrey Smith too was a nice player for a long time.

I have a question for you - while you are making an argument why other teams should be willing to give up draft capital and a large contract for Robinson why not just keep him? If you are convinced he's the best WR available I have another WR needy team..... DA BEARS!!!! He's got no bad blood with the team, so why not just argue he should get extended?

Money, its a salary cap league. I think whoever the Bears have playing under center in 2021 will have a much better time if resources are poured into the offensive line rather than wide receiver. If money were no object and the Bears had the offensive line sorted it would be a slam dunk to bring back Robinson II, but the Bears need massive upgrades at both right and left tackle.

 

[Montucky]

Are you advocating to follow the Jags lead in how they handle players leaving a team?

You know they had a talented team, pretty much fucked it all up and completely earned the #1 overall pick because they were the worst team in the league, right?

Since 2017 they have went 12-36. I really don't think they add creditability to your argument the way you think it does.

The Jags were arguably the NFL's most talented team in 2017. The next year they were shit.
The Bears were arguably the NFL's most talented team in 2018. The next year they were shit.
The 49ers were arguably the NFL's most talented team in 2019. The next year they were shit.

Success is fleeting in the NFL.

 

[Starion]

I'd be extremely surprised if ARob actually sits out:

1) Lost cash money $$$
2) He's quoted saying many times that he wants to be in the HOF and said himself how much missing out his injured year set him back (even though he appreciated refining his craft from the sidelines). He does NOT want to miss more time in his prime.
3) He's a high character guy and likely won't want to let down his teammates, family, & fans.

Likely just doing what his agent says to strike leverage.

IF ONLY Pace was able to just be upfront with ARob & his agent
last fall behind closed doors... ​

PACE:
"Hey guys, you're my biggest piece on the board this upcoming offseason & I won't know where the cap will be. (Gal-Darn Covid! - shakes fist) We're super excited for you to remain a Bear, but we just can't commit to a big contract right now as we want to get you a real QB for once in your career! Doesn't that sound exciting? I'm excited. Worst case we may have to accept the risk of a tag next season, will you? Less exciting I know, but let's see how things shake out with the cap. It's just business. Fair?"


AROB: "I deserve mine - especially if I have to put up with Nagy and these other child-WRs, but fair enough. Is what it is."

 

[Pegger]

I think the Bears receivers even minus Allen Robinson II are better than that group. I wouldn't trade Darnell Mooney for all four of those guys.

You are a homer. Mooney + ? is not better than Parker + Williams.

And that might be worse than the Dolphins. Though they do have Mark Andrews so it doesn't tell the whole story. Nobody you've named is anywhere near the players Anquan Boldin. Anquan Boldin has the ninth most receptions all time. I'm not a stats guy but you don't see that kind of usage if you can't play. Torrey Smith too was a nice player for a long time.

Again, you are a Homer just trying to make sense of an argument that contradicts itself. Boldin did have some great seasons, but as a Raven his was underwhelming. Smith had his best season as a pro that season, but that rivals exactly what Brown has done in both of his seasons in the NFL. The Boykin/Duvernay side of the equation is just young players who the team has drafted and had 1-2 seasons to develop. I'm not saying they are amazing, just that the team drafted them for a reason and obviously aren't don't developing those guys.

Money, its a salary cap league. I think whoever the Bears have playing under center in 2021 will have a much better time if resources are poured into the offensive line rather than wide receiver. If money were no object and the Bears had the offensive line sorted it would be a slam dunk to bring back Robinson II, but the Bears need massive upgrades at both right and left tackle.

So the Bears can't afford Robinson, but all the other teams can? You mention the Ravens can't afford Brown as a tackle because they have cap issues on the horizon, but think they are a good trade candidate for Robinson's new deal?

I wanted to post the Homer again, but just felt the perplexed Goldblum did a better job at explaining how your arguments aren't lining up.

 

[Pegger]

The Jags were arguably the NFL's most talented team in 2017. The next year they were shit.
The Bears were arguably the NFL's most talented team in 2018. The next year they were shit.
The 49ers were arguably the NFL's most talented team in 2019. The next year they were shit.

Success is fleeting in the NFL.

Your reasoning for following the Jags lead into the dumpster is that 'it happens'?

Is that you Pace?