Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs 4/18-4/20 Series Thread

[brett05]

No cubs win???
http://www.google.com/search?client....3361.3.1LzvB41HfII#biv=i|0;d|EvxMFM8TwJxQZM:


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[Mr. Cub]

 

[CSF77]

And that ladies and gents is why it's nice to keep Barney in the mix.

.120 BA says you are wrong.

 

[CSF77]

This just illustrates how inept the platoons have been.

Yes they went through 3 quaity RH starters but what was it 0 runs scored against them. Then a LH comes up and they work him?

Barney is not going to win you games. Baez is looking like the future there.

What they need to do is promote Vitters still. ASAP. few reasons but the main one is they have to see if he is a major league player before the prospect waves hit.

Jackson has failed. Even this year he sucks and is SO 1/2 of his AB's.

Right now they are giving playing time to replacement players. Valbuena, Barney, Ruggiano, Kalish, Sweeney, Bonifacio, Schierholtz.

All of them are replacement quality. Last year Schierholtz produced. He is not looking like that this year. Bonifacio is playing over his talent level this year. His numbers don't support it being legit. Sweeney=scrub. Ruggiano is replacement but ateast brings some HR potential. Kalish another scrub


The fact that Jed put together a crapper like that points towards the joke the north side is.

Ya good win. 1 win 2 losses. That has been the trend and a sweep but the Yanks. Welcome to the 55 win party. Yippy

 

[Mr. Cub]

.120 BA says you are wrong.

But his glove is where it's at. That DP he turned was sweet, plus he went yard and I missed it.

 

[beckdawg]

Bonifacio is playing over his talent level this year. His numbers don't support it being legit.

He played basically this well in 2011. Also, if you look at his 2nd half last year he hit .285/.347/.363. He's not going to be a core player for any team but I don't think it's fair to lump him in with the others you just did.

 

[CSF77]

The problem with Barney is he causes too many outs. It out weighs his glove.


Bonifacio: he is this years Schierholtz. Plain and simple. Schierholtz was playing over his head last year. This year?

That is the basic reason why I did lump him in as a replacement. If he had a few years to show hey he is this guy than he would have not been released by the Royals.

This is most likely his career year. Nothing suggests that he was anything more.

I like him though.

My opinion is promote Vitters and demote Kalish. Move Lake full time to CF. Vitters full time LF. Sweeney PH. Schierholtz and Rug platoon in left.

IF: Barney UI because of his D. 3B keep the platoon. Olt just brings a occasional HR not much else. Valbuena has better OBA skills. 2B Bonifacio full time.

Now future: Baez to 2B Bonifacio sold off. I'm hopping They promote Bryant to Iowa soon. He has been earning it.

Pitching: today Jackson got lucky. He put 10 guys on base in 5.2 IP and walked away with only 2 runs given up. That is not the way to win games. He got lucky

Arrieta is pitching at Iowa on Monday. I expect him promoted and Parker demoted. Concervitive as usual. Even though Wada is putting up some remarkable production.

A daring move:

Next week promote Wada, Arrieta and Vitters. Demote Parker, Kalish and cut Carlos V.

Move Jackson to the pen. I would see if he can close. His stuff is Maybe good enough for 1 inning work. Stabilize the pen that way.

Then run out Wada and Arrieta in the rotation for the year.



They have to start working on winning games vs draft order

 

[beckdawg]

That is the basic reason why I did lump him in as a replacement. If he had a few years to show hey he is this guy than he would have not been released by the Royals.

Well, the Royals did sign Infante to replace him essentially. Even if they did let him go, they very well could have made a mistake. If you look at the past 4 years for Bonifacio he put up the following triple slashes, .261/.320/.328, .296/.360/.393, .258/.330/.316 and .243/.295/.331. His first half last year was an absolute disaster. He hit .207/.248/.304 with a .260 BABIP. Given that his career average for BABIP is .334 he appears to have hit into some bad luck. And if you adjust that first half toward his career average BABIP it's in line with those previous 3 seasons as well.

I will admit I'm a big defender of Bonifacio. But, those numbers are in line with what you got out of Castro in his first 3 years only minus some power and plus a fair bit of speed. Part of his problem may revolve around the fact he hasn't had much of a full time job in those 4 seasons. He only had 1577 PAs over those 4 years which amounts to a little over 2 full years for full time guys. You can take that two ways. One is that teams didn't think he was good enough and the other is he hasn't had the chance to play full time which set him back. The two years he did see close to full time play were his 2011 career year and last year where he had a brutal first half and a second half that was far closer to 2011.

Right now his BABIP is a bit high at .421 with a .358/.403/.403 triple slash. So, clearly we should expect to see that drop some. However, one other interesting tidbit this year is the fact he's striking out significantly less. His career rate is 20.3% and this year it's down to 13.7%. So, he's putting the ball in play close to 80% of the time. It could be sample size but it could also be he's gotten better. Him striking out less may mean he's seeing the ball better and thus leading to him getting on more. I feel he's a Castro level player without the hype though admittedly I feel Castro is more an average to above average player rather than a star. Castro will likely hit for a higher average but Bonifacio's walks will likely put them at a similar level of OBP.

I could be wrong but that's why I wouldn't sell him off unless you get something significant in return. Even if he's more a .260 hitter he is probably close to an average player and you can play him at 4-5 positions of which 4 of them are particularly weak(3 OF spots plus 2B). Add that to the fact he's only 29 and he's a fairly appealing package for a team that doesn't have much hitting. In fact, I'd honestly rather they tried to re-sign him.

 

[CSF77]

I don't see a spot for him going forward. Just Jed saying that Baez needs to take reps at 2B tells the tale. Sure he could get pushed to CF. Im not sure that they do that.

I still think he is closer to a .260 hitter vs a .300 hitter. He is doing great so far and they should sell high here. We saw with Schierholtz that it may not be sustainable. I doubt Schierholtz repeats.

I would rather give Baez, Lake and Vitters shots at every day play over Bonifacio. I like Lake leading off. Reminds me of Sori light. Can jack a first pitch fastball

I like the idea of Vitters splitting up Rizzo and Schierholtz now then Baez latter in that role.

Just ask your self this: When this team is good is he a starter on it? I don't. I see Alcantara up soon who may be forced into that role. That is what I see.

 

[CSF77]

Another reason to consider:

Kris Bryant: Born: 01/04/1992
Arismendy Alcantara: 10/29/1991
Joshua Warren Vitters 08/27/1989
Ednel Javier Baez 12/01/1992
Matthew Szczur 07/20/1989
Jorge Soler 02/25/1992
Albert Almora 04-16-1994
Dan Vogelbach 12-17-1992


Junior Lake Mar 27, 1990
Anthony Rizzo Aug 8, 1989
Starlin Castro Mar 24, 1990


Mike Olt Aug 27, 1988
Ryan Kalish Mar 28, 1988
Wellington Castillo Apr 24, 1987


Barney Nov 8, 1985
Bonifacio Apr 23, 1985
Valbuena Nov 30, 1985
Sweeney Feb 20, 1985
Schierholtz Feb 15, 1984
Ruggiano Apr 12, 1982

 

[beckdawg]

Just ask your self this: When this team is good is he a starter on it? I don't. I see Alcantara up soon who may be forced into that role. That is what I see.

He'd most likely be a bench player then but that's still 2-3 years down the line and he's a useful player until then. Also if you sell high here what do you get? If it's a Strop or Arrieta style gamble I'd rather just keep with Bonifacio until you have to do something else.

 

[brett05]

Keeping or trading Emilio makes no difference for current/future Cubs

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[CSF77]

He'd most likely be a bench player then but that's still 2-3 years down the line and he's a useful player until then. Also if you sell high here what do you get? If it's a Strop or Arrieta style gamble I'd rather just keep with Bonifacio until you have to do something else.

Age. They have most of their aquired talent running birthdays between 1987-1994. Barney, Bonifacio and the rest are 1985 and older. That is a big deal.

There is a core being built. That core will age together. That is how you can tell the difference between filler vs future pieces.

If they re-up with Bonifacio then it is another cost cutting mistake vs paying for legit talent or letting Alcantara get that playing time next year.

 

[theberserkfury]

Wow, 6Ks for Villanueva through 3 innings...

 

[Mr. Cub]

Wow, 6Ks for Villanueva through 3 innings...

And now he wants the runs to match his K totals....

 

[Ari Bear]

Lets get some runs!!!!

 

[nwfisch]

:bowrofl:This team is supposed to compete by 2015.

 

[Diehardfan]

:bowrofl:This team is supposed to compete by 2015.

It's the right team............



just not the right players.


One through eight, there's only one player that might be considered major league material. There's nobody in the bullpen I'd want. Maybe three or four starters.

Five fucking players and a bunch of never were or over the hill wannabees.

 

[Mr. Cub]

I fucking hate the Reds almost as bad as the Cardinals. Cubs suck.

 

[CSF77]

It's the right team............



just not the right players.


One through eight, there's only one player that might be considered major league material. There's nobody in the bullpen I'd want. Maybe three or four starters.

Five fucking players and a bunch of never were or over the hill wannabees.

They have 2 players. Rizzo and Castro.

Castillo is replaceable.

Pitching Shark, Wood and Hammel. Rondon and Grimm look good in the pen.

Rest are meh. Ya Bonifacio looks good this year.


Here is an example of a core team problem:

Castro is hitting 6th due to a lack of run production. Schierholtz hitting .218, Olt hitting .194.

2nd example Sweeney hitting #2 batting .167 instead of Castro who is hitting .294.

The answer is they are not spending on talent. They are tossing out projects and replacement players.