Cubs fans that got use to the whole Hendry/"we're selling the team so just sign these dudes to blank check deals" are in for a rude awakening.
The Cubs don't have the revenue streams available to continue to operate with a top 5 payroll.
You guys already have $103 million locked up next year and that's before Marmol, Marshall or Soto go into arb. $103 million locked up in Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez, Fukudome, Dempster, Silva, Byrd, Samardjza. For those scoring at home that's 8 guys.
You aren't signing Dunn or Gonzalez. You guys are going to have trouble filling out the rest of your bench and bullpen without going over $150 million. It's simply not plausible. The Cubs are not going to go into 2011 with a $180 million payroll.
Gonzalez isn't a FA next year.
I think that Dunn will command about 15 or 16M a year, so that would be about 3M more than Lee is making this year. Knowing Hendry he will backload the deal. I see it being 12/15/17ish. That would be 1 million less for next year than Lee is making this year.
So then we have :
Soriano 19
Z 19
Rami 14.6
Fuku 14.5
Demp 14.5
Silva 13
Dunn 12
Byrd 5.5
Grablow 5
Stinkfish 3.5
Marmol 5 million?
Marshall 2 million?
Gorzo 2 million?
Geo 2 million?
That's 14 players at 131 Million. We have 5.5 coming for Silva, so that's 125 million for 14 players. I see us trading Z and getting back 5 millionish. Trading Fukudome and getting 5 millionish. So that's 12 players at 115 million. We have enough starters, so we don't need to replace Z. Fukudome on the other hand, would need to be replaced. I think we could probably reup Nady at about 3 million + incentives or so. So I'd say about 13 players at 120 million. Then we have Wells, Castro, Colvin, Cashner, and a bunch of bullpen arms making league minimum. So I'd say we have 10 players at league minimum. That puts us at 124 million. Then we could sign a couple other players and still be under 130 million. I think we can sign him and still easily lower the payroll.
Hasn't Ricketts been preaching fiscal conservatism since day 1? Signing a 30-year old Dunn to the huge huge contract he is going to command wouldn't be very "conservative", financially-speaking.
Bigger players age better as opposed to speedy players. I think that Jim can sign him to a 3 year deal, which wouldn't make his age a factor at all. He'd be 33 in his final year.
without dunn, and im saying this because i do not believe that the cubs will pony up another big contract, can still compete. i still think there are bigger holes to fill...overhaul of the BP
We don't need to overhaul our bullpen. It's stupid to pay a lot for relievers. They pitch one inning. Plus, we have a TON of depth at pitching in our farm system. Ricketts talks about using the farm system, so use it. That being said, I think we will see Kerry Wood make his return to Chicago as a reliever.
Of course we could see him, but like a few others have said, where is that money coming from?
Even if the Cubs only have to eat a portion of Fukudome and Zambrano's contracts, any money saved there will probably be lost when Soto, Marmol, and Marshall get their arbitration raises.
The Cubs need to stay away from large, long term contracts and allow the farm to develop the major league talent.
See the first post I quoted. Basically the money is coming from Derrek Lee's contract.
Sure they could. Lee and Lilly off the books would allow them to sign Dunn or Gonzalez to a ridiculous deal to play 1st base. I could see it happening, but doubt it will...since we are on a youth movement.
Pitching would be pretty shotty, but you couldn't deny that a lineup of:
1. Colvin
2. Castro
3. Dunn/Gonzalez
4. Ramirez (hopefully healthy)
5. Byrd
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. DeWitt/Barney (platoon)
9. Pitcher
wouldn't be semi-productive and much more reliable compared to this year's lineup.
Keep in mind, I don't think this deal will happen. Simply pipe-dreaming.
Colvin better not lead off. He is shitty as a leadoff hitter.