Cubs are in a confusing position...

[beckdawg]

Heading into the trade deadline soon cubs are in a weird position. On the one hand, I can see the case for not buying. They are 7 games back in the central and 6 in the WC. On the other hand, cubs are the only team in the central with a positive run differential(+23 with next best being cincy at -9). As such, the cubs expected win loss is 47-42 which is 5 games better than they currently are. If teams played to their expected win loss cincy would be 2 wins back with 45.

So, i'm not really sure what i want the cubs to do. I think there's a reasonable case to be made that cubs in the second half will claw back some of this bad lucky especially having dealt with losing belly for awhile. But the other part of me just feels like even if they make the playoffs that they don't have enough to go anywhere really.

I guess the optimistic play would be to hope a team sells a more long term piece than a rental that they could attack in trade with the idea being helping in the short term but more realistically building toward 2024.

 

[Castor76]

Heading into the trade deadline soon cubs are in a weird position. On the one hand, I can see the case for not buying. They are 7 games back in the central and 6 in the WC. On the other hand, cubs are the only team in the central with a positive run differential(+23 with next best being cincy at -9). As such, the cubs expected win loss is 47-42 which is 5 games better than they currently are. If teams played to their expected win loss cincy would be 2 wins back with 45.

So, i'm not really sure what i want the cubs to do. I think there's a reasonable case to be made that cubs in the second half will claw back some of this bad lucky especially having dealt with losing belly for awhile. But the other part of me just feels like even if they make the playoffs that they don't have enough to go anywhere really.

I guess the optimistic play would be to hope a team sells a more long term piece than a rental that they could attack in trade with the idea being helping in the short term but more realistically building toward 2024.

As much as I'd like to see them make a couples of moves to be aggressive, I just don't see it making an impact of getting them into the 2nd round much less the NLCS or further. I do want them to re-sign Stroman even though he's been on a run of bad starts since late June because the market for pitching is so bare. Bellinger's white hot July so far combined with Tauchman and Morel make him a prime trade chip to pick up a possible 3B for the future.

The Rays are getting next to nothing from CF right now and they have Curtis Mead at AAA, who in pieces of 3 seasons at that level, has a slash line of 276/357/482 with 7 HR and 17 2B in 52 games. They have another 3B prospect who is a little further down as far a A level and MLB ETA but they also have another season with their MLB 3B now. Mead is ranked #33 in the top MLB prospects list.

Another possibility is Baltimore needing a bat for 1B. They are 22nd in OPS at 1B and have Coby Mayo sitting at AA. Mayo is only ranked #76 on the top 100 so maybe the Cubs could get more than just him. Mayo has a slash line of 310/427/609 in 77 games this season with 17 HR.

 

[Probie2429]

They are sellers. Stroman, Bellinger, and Hendricks can all go. Don’t think the Cubs have any bullpen guys that will interest anyone though. Bullpen this year is a major meh.

 

[knoxville7]

It’s not that confusing of a position to be in lol

 

[Chicagosports89]

This team should be selling off Hendricks, stroman and bellinger

 

[beckdawg]

It’s not that confusing of a position to be in lol

Seems like you are approaching this more from a fan perspective than a team one. I say it's confusing because the cubs are one of 7 teams in the NL with a positive run differential. Arizona for instance is 52-39 with a +26 run differential. Cubs are +27. And cubs have beat decent teams. I think you could rightly argue they are a flawed team but they could realistically make a run at the playoffs. Last year a worse cubs team had like a .550 win% in the second half.

Given that, there's an argument to be made both for selling and buying.

 

[Diehardfan]

Making a run at this particular time is not at all a team thing... it's a me thing. Three guys that need to be moved with two of them being the best time to move. Bellinger hasn't had a year like this in three or four years...Stroman has never had a year like this and while Hendricks is heading towards decline, he's showing enough to possibly interest someone for pennant push. You don't move them now, you get little or nothing later. Why delay? To schlep into the playoffs for a quick in and out? There should be no thinking required.

 

[knoxville7]

Seems like you are approaching this more from a fan perspective than a team one. I say it's confusing because the cubs are one of 7 teams in the NL with a positive run differential. Arizona for instance is 52-39 with a +26 run differential. Cubs are +27. And cubs have beat decent teams. I think you could rightly argue they are a flawed team but they could realistically make a run at the playoffs. Last year a worse cubs team had like a .550 win% in the second half.

Given that, there's an argument to be made both for selling and buying.

Do tell, do tell

 

[beckdawg]

So, when i say thinking like a fan rather than a team what i mean is this. You think selling makes sense because they aren't good enough and more prospects is better. 100% understandable take. However, you're not thinking about random baseball shit like the 40 man roster not to mention the aspects of dealing with ownership who may want a more productive team for money reasons.

But specifically, I want to talk about the 40 man thing for a moment because it's gonna be a real issue for the cubs. Fangraphs recently posted their updated look at the cubs farm system prior to the draft and they listed 52 players. Cincy had 46, MIL had 39, PIT had 43, STL had 32. The cubs are DEEP. Tampa who has widely been regarded as one of the deepest farms in baseball had 48. Cleveland was at 50. Dodgers were at 51. Most of the rest of the league is in the 30's on average.

Part of that is good. You want to develop like tampa/cle/lad. However, the issue becomes players not on the 40 man become rule 5 eligible. So ideally what you want is to consolidate that depth into quality. This is the dodgers trading for mookie betts/trea turner...etc. However, it doesn't make much sense to buy if you're selling off for more prospects. So, i think there's an argument to be made for going for it this year a year to early with the thought being you target more controllable players to get a jump on 2024.

 

[CSF77]

Looking over next year. Minus arb cases they are 78M under threshold. (Including Sto's opt)

Regarding arb cases locking up Alzolay and Steele makes sense this off season. They have both earned it

Now after that Cubs should not offer any one else and let them walk.

On retaining opts. Stro most likely pulls his opt after his injury filled 2nd half and playing on a contender to rebuild his value.

Fullmer should be axed you don't pay for that. Jed could plug Brown into the pen as the 8th inning guy

Hendricks should be not retained.

Smyly is bad money right now.

Paying a guy to stick.

Jamier and Cody should be at the top of the list.

I would expect 40-45M AAV. Their track records have been sketchy but over all it is not a bad gamble.

So realistically after that is done the Cubs would be around 25M under threshold to fill holes that the farm can not cover.

 

[Diehardfan]

The Cubs are said to have a top 5 minor league system....so do the Brewers. The Brew Crew bring up young kids pretty regularly and they all seem to do pretty good things for them. The Cubs sit on their kids while they fuck around with 32 year old vets hoping for one final burst out of them. Hoyer seems possessed by 30 year old players....maybe he plans to keep the Cub young players in their system till they hit 30 then bring them up.

For my two cents.....keep Happ, Suzuki, Dansby, Tauchman, Hoerner, Madrigal, Morel and both catchers....Alzolay, Steele, Assad, Palencia, Leiter, Wesneski and only because they contactually have to....Stroman and Taillon. Hendricks might fit as a #5, if they find some better they can launch him too. It's time to throw out the old trash and bring up some new, young faces.

They need to find a way to pay Bellinger.....whatever money they might be considering giving to Candy, fuck that....give that to Cody, as well.

 

[CSF77]

I was looking over some top pay roll players in baseball and 25-30M should be Cody's landing spot. Jamier 15M on a short makes sense. Cubs have a solid 3B prospect now and 2-3 years is fine. Even if they go longer and the DH it is still workable.

SP wise I am thinking let Wicks get a slot.

Most likely would be:

Steele
Stroman
Tallion
Wicks
Assad

So that 25M then could be utilized on mid season rentals.

Brown has serious walk issues going on. Most due to his 3rd and 4th pitches. Getting him on a 2 pitch routine and going all out in his first year in one inning scenerio is a wise move. Not to mention most reports have this as his way into the majors.

If he is able to harness his off speed stuff over time it is win win. If he ends up as a part of a lock down pen. Win win

Also this relieves pressure on pushing up Horton too fast. I am expecting AA-AAA and depending on his innings some Sept work load with the team. But it could go either way and having 25M banked is a big deal next summer. He goes past expectations then other areas can be looked into.