Cubs at Reds IST!

[CSF77]

I think that's a forced comp, they're not very similar to be honest. Rizzo has more in common with Adam Dunn than Mark Grace. I think the body might age better and Rizzo is a much better defender though, so even that one isn't perfect.

Dunn has rocks for hands. Not a good 1B comp. D side Grace and Rizzo should wash. Rizzo needs to prove he can sustain a .300 BA before any Grace hitting comps.

I'm feeling Rizzo will have to sac power to sustain a .300 BA.

 

[dabynsky]

I think that's a forced comp, they're not very similar to be honest. Rizzo has more in common with Adam Dunn than Mark Grace. I think the body might age better and Rizzo is a much better defender though, so even that one isn't perfect.

Also Dunn has way more power than Rizzo though I think we disagree about that. I don't see 40 HRs coming from Rizzo except may be one freak season whereas Dunn had what six-seven years in a row of that.

 

[Boobaby1]

im thinking he could be a mark grace type player with a bit more power but less with the AVG

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-T217A using Tapatalk

Offensively, he compares to Adam LaRoche with a Joey Votto glove IMO.

 

[beckdawg]

Offensively, he compares to Adam LaRoche with a Joey Votto glove IMO.

That's starting to look like a low comparison. LaRoche is a career .265/.339/.474 hitter. Rizzo is currently hitting .283/.407/.457. You can say it's a small sample size with 113 PAs but he hit .285/.342/.463 his first year in Chicago over 368 PAs. I suppose you can make the comparison that his first year was similar to LaRoche's career marks but his first year in Chicago he was 22. I'm not sure if his current 15.9% walk rate is something that is sustainable(he was 11% last year) but it seems pretty evident that he's going to pretty substantially out OBP LaRoche since LaRoche was only ever a 10% walk rate. You can also make the argument like Mauricio did that at 24 Rizzo will come into more power as he ages and puts on muscle.

If we're a bit conservative, you could make a decent argument that he's a .280/.380/.500 type hitter in the near future. If that's the case someone like Ryan Klesko only with better defense would be a decent comparison since he was a career .279/.370/.500 hitter with 12.5%/16.5% walk/k rate. Klesko was basically a 2.7 WAR/season player with a 4.3 peak WAR. That seems pretty obtainable to me.

 

[Boobaby1]

That's starting to look like a low comparison. LaRoche is a career .265/.339/.474 hitter. Rizzo is currently hitting .283/.407/.457. You can say it's a small sample size with 113 PAs but he hit .285/.342/.463 his first year in Chicago over 368 PAs. I suppose you can make the comparison that his first year was similar to LaRoche's career marks but his first year in Chicago he was 22. I'm not sure if his current 15.9% walk rate is something that is sustainable(he was 11% last year) but it seems pretty evident that he's going to pretty substantially out OBP LaRoche since LaRoche was only ever a 10% walk rate. You can also make the argument like Mauricio did that at 24 Rizzo will come into more power as he ages and puts on muscle.

If we're a bit conservative, you could make a decent argument that he's a .280/.380/.500 type hitter in the near future. If that's the case someone like Ryan Klesko only with better defense would be a decent comparison since he was a career .279/.370/.500 hitter with 12.5%/16.5% walk/k rate. Klesko was basically a 2.7 WAR/season player with a 4.3 peak WAR. That seems pretty obtainable to me.

Let me splain myself. Look at Adam's 1st 6 years in Atlanta and Pittsburgh combined. His HR's are similar, OBP is .345 to .350ish, and the AVG. is .275ish, and OPS is close.

Rizzo is walking more which I hope continues, so all in all, I think they are close. As far as WAR is concerned, I don't care about it.

 

[beckdawg]

Let me splain myself. Look at Adam's 1st 6 years in Atlanta and Pittsburgh combined. His HR's are similar, OBP is .345 to .350ish, and the AVG. is .275ish, and OPS is close.

Rizzo is walking more which I hope continues, so all in all, I think they are close. As far as WAR is concerned, I don't care about it.

Fair enough. I just think he'll end up more like Klesko because I think he's probably a better player than LaRoche. His peak OBP in his sub-30 years was .355. Rizzo's first year with the cubs was .342. This year's walk totals seem to indicate he can be much better than that. That said, LaRoche probably isn't a terrible floor estimate for what Rizzo could be.