Cubs connected to Granderson

[brett05]

Except for the little fact where Schierholtz is making less than half of Granderson...

Or the fact that outside of the injury year (2013) Curtis was way more than twice the player Nate is

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[beckdawg]

Or the fact that outside of the injury year (2013) Curtis was way more than twice the player Nate is

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Ok fine but i don't really see how that matters going forward. Granderson will be 33 to start next year. The cubs are probably 2 years away from contention. If the cubs were say an 80 win team and you wanna make that gamble fine but even if granderson was a 6 WAR player that just pushes the cubs to average and they aren't going to pay for enough other pieces to matter. And in that case, why drop way more money? I'd rather see them give younger guys who've been let go a chance and see if a change of scenery helps coincidentally like Schierholtz was last year.

 

[CSF77]

Except for the little fact where Schierholtz is making less than half of Granderson...

That only matters if you are a penny pincher. Fact is Granderson is a proven starter in the league that does not need a platoon partner. He has hit 40 HR not a career best 20. Of course he should cost more.

We got a good year out of Schierholtz. Time to sell.

I find it funny that you came up with that augment though. I thought we were A's fans for a sec.

 

[CSF77]

Ok fine but i don't really see how that matters going forward. Granderson will be 33 to start next year. The cubs are probably 2 years away from contention. If the cubs were say an 80 win team and you wanna make that gamble fine but even if granderson was a 6 WAR player that just pushes the cubs to average and they aren't going to pay for enough other pieces to matter. And in that case, why drop way more money? I'd rather see them give younger guys who've been let go a chance and see if a change of scenery helps coincidentally like Schierholtz was last year.

That is where you are wrong. This year alone they could have Baez and Bryant on the team. A 3/4/5/6 of Rizzo, Baez, Grandy, Bryant.... That could be 120-150 HR's over a year. Scarry. Ya that is just by the end of the year.

 

[Boobaby1]

That is where you are wrong. This year alone they could have Baez and Bryant on the team. A 3/4/5/6 of Rizzo, Baez, Grandy, Bryant.... That could be 120-150 HR's over a year. Scarry. Ya that is just by the end of the year.

I don't like players coming from organizations that have a ton of success. Don't get me wrong, I like winning attitudes but there is a reason some of these guys see the pitches they do when the line-up is stacked. Granderson is also a high strikeout guy and not too good of an OBP for having hitters all around him in New York.

Throw him in their with Rizzo and Baez and they could lead the majors in "whiffs". Thanks but no thanks.

The only high-profiled free agent they should be pursuing this year is Tanaka.

When the Cubs do go after a future big name free agent, I hope he will be closer related to the Aramis Ramirez type hitter in that he is close to or over a .300 average, strike out less than 100 times, and have a lofty OBP.

That's the type of bat you look for to compliment these youngsters.

 

[CSF77]

I don't like players coming from organizations that have a ton of success. Don't get me wrong, I like winning attitudes but there is a reason some of these guys see the pitches they do when the line-up is stacked. Granderson is also a high strikeout guy and not too good of an OBP for having hitters all around him in New York.

Throw him in their with Rizzo and Baez and they could lead the majors in "whiffs". Thanks but no thanks.

The only high-profiled free agent they should be pursuing this year is Tanaka.

When the Cubs do go after a future big name free agent, I hope he will be closer related to the Aramis Ramirez type hitter in that he is close to or over a .300 average, strike out less than 100 times, and have a lofty OBP.

That's the type of bat you look for to compliment these youngsters.

Hard to find that type. Boras is asking too much for his 2 lead offs.

 

[Boobaby1]

Hard to find that type. Boras is asking too much for his 2 lead offs.

I know it's not out there this year and this is also the year to not chase players like Choo and Elsbury. This is the year to get creative with trades and stockpile more talent. The Cubs should wait for the lower market teams that have a surplus of talent also in the minors that want to deal a player that is maybe in his 1st or 2nd year of arbitration and getting closer to not being able to re-sign them.

If the Cubs stand pat, they should have plenty of talent in the minors to pull a deal like that off. Who knows, maybe they won't have to do much at all, meaning the kids are doing better than expected.

There is still a long time in the maturation process for some of these kids. Some are barely out of high school which is promising.

 

[beckdawg]

That is where you are wrong. This year alone they could have Baez and Bryant on the team. A 3/4/5/6 of Rizzo, Baez, Grandy, Bryant.... That could be 120-150 HR's over a year. Scarry. Ya that is just by the end of the year.

You're still talking half a season at the earliest before baez/bryant are in the majors which it seems unlikely that 2014 will be a year of contention. And even if bryant and baez progress to the majors in 2015, you're still counting on a lot to go right in terms of starting pitching and again, they are unlikely to add more than Granderson if that is indeed the move they make this offseason.

Simply put, as things stand right now in order for the cubs to contend in 2014 and 2015 you need 1 possibly 2 starters. Right now you have a rotation of Wood, Shark, and Jackson with the possibility of Arrieta progressing. You then have to worry about Shark's re-signing or you need another. You're also counting on Baez and Bryants playing like all-stars the moment they come up which frankly is hopeful thinking.

Signing granderson forces your hand to move toward contention sooner. If things go wrong in 2014 to start the year then what? What if Baez and Bryant take a step back next year in their development? Then what? Signing someone like Granderson is a move you make when your ready to win now not when you are still waiting for arguably your best future pieces to progress to the majors. For example, let's say this is next year and Baez and Bryant got their cup of coffee and performed well. Then sure it makes sense to sign someone that off season like Granderson in preparation of Baez and Bryant starting with the club in 2015.

As such I don't see it. If Granderson were to come unusually cheap(sub $10 mil) then possibly but you're still giving up a prospect(2nd round pick) for him and I don't see him being a part of the core group when the prospects all finally hit the majors because he'll be in his mid 30's. And why is he something you can't find on next year's list of FAs? It's not like he's a CF or a SS which hold more positional value. To me, signing granderson at what he's likely to get is trying to force an issue when the talent level on the team probably isn't there yet and that's before you consider the fact he is coming in off a bad year and has the potential to be just as bad.

 

[brett05]

That is where you are wrong. This year alone they could have Baez and Bryant on the team. A 3/4/5/6 of Rizzo, Baez, Grandy, Bryant.... That could be 120-150 HR's over a year. Scarry. Ya that is just by the end of the year.

You don;t mean in 2014 do you? Or 2015 and probably 2016 as well. Almost no one is a McGwire or a Pujols from the start.

 

[CSF77]

You don;t mean in 2014 do you? Or 2015 and probably 2016 as well. Almost no one is a McGwire or a Pujols from the start.

This is what I would do:

Run out Olt at 3B and Castro at SS out of S/T and build up trade value on both. Right now they are both at all time low values but both have higher potential return values. Baez and Bryant's natural positions are SS/3B so they could be used to net other pieces.

So at the start run Baez at AAA and Bryant at AA. Let them both play it out. If Bryant dominates AA promote him up to AAA early.

By the trade deadline see what you have. If Olt blows then cut and promote. I believe he will bounce back though. Same with Castro. If teams are asking about Castro now they really will be willing to pay up if he is back at a .300 hitter again.

So thinking about it using Olt and Castro to get pitching or a lead off will just make the core that much better.

I wouldn't be dependent on Almora or Soler. I believe both will take more time. But Bryant I believe could play opening day and hold his own. His bat is very advanced.


But I believe over a full season Bryant could hit 30 HR's in his first full year. He doesn't have the holes in his swing that Rizzo has. Baez has some holes but has world class power. Sori had holes but hit 30 HR's with no problem. Not concerned with either bashing HR's. More concerned with Rizzo to be honest there.

 

[beckdawg]

But I believe over a full season Bryant could hit 30 HR's in his first full year. He doesn't have the holes in his swing that Rizzo has. Baez has some holes but has world class power. Sori had holes but hit 30 HR's with no problem. Not concerned with either bashing HR's. More concerned with Rizzo to be honest there.

The flaw in your logic is expecting both to come out and play that well. I'm sorry but 22 year old rookies coming and hitting 30 HR's isn't that common and you're expecting it from 2 players on the same team in the same year. I'll even give you some wiggle room. Do you know how many rookies between the age of 18-23 have hit 25 or more home runs since 2000? You're talking about Mike Trout(30 2012), Wilin Rosario(28 2012), Evan Longoria(27 2008), Ryan Braun(34 2007), Chris Young(32 2007), Prince Fielder(28 2006), Mark Teixeira(26 2003), and Albert Pujols(37 2001). With the exception of Rosario and Young, you're talking about 6 yearly MVP candidates during their prime years. In those years, Trout was 2nd in MVP voting, Longoria was 11th in MVP voting, Braun was 24th, and Pujols was 4th in MVP voting. So, you're basically talking 2 rookies having border line MVP seasons.

Like I said, I think you're expecting far too much. Hell, if one of the two has a longoria type rookie season people should be thrilled.

 

[CSF77]

The flaw in your logic is expecting both to come out and play that well. I'm sorry but 22 year old rookies coming and hitting 30 HR's isn't that common and you're expecting it from 2 players on the same team in the same year. I'll even give you some wiggle room. Do you know how many rookies between the age of 18-23 have hit 25 or more home runs since 2000? You're talking about Mike Trout(30 2012), Wilin Rosario(28 2012), Evan Longoria(27 2008), Ryan Braun(34 2007), Chris Young(32 2007), Prince Fielder(28 2006), Mark Teixeira(26 2003), and Albert Pujols(37 2001). With the exception of Rosario and Young, you're talking about 6 yearly MVP candidates during their prime years. In those years, Trout was 2nd in MVP voting, Longoria was 11th in MVP voting, Braun was 24th, and Pujols was 4th in MVP voting. So, you're basically talking 2 rookies having border line MVP seasons.

Like I said, I think you're expecting far too much. Hell, if one of the two has a longoria type rookie season people should be thrilled.

We will see what happens. Just when a hitter hits more HR's then 200 of major colleges by himself....added to it the change to graphite bats and no college player has come close to that feat sense the change. We are probley talking about a once in a generation hitter here. Don't be mad if he ends up as a great Cub. I wont. Baez I worry about more. But he has hit 37 HR's in a season. Again you do not see that from players at that level much less in the majors.

I'll just kick back and wait.

 

[beckdawg]

We will see what happens. Just when a hitter hits more HR's then 200 of major colleges by himself....added to it the change to graphite bats and no college player has come close to that feat sense the change. We are probley talking about a once in a generation hitter here. Don't be mad if he ends up as a great Cub. I wont. Baez I worry about more. But he has hit 37 HR's in a season. Again you do not see that from players at that level much less in the majors.

I'll just kick back and wait.

Fine but I also ran that list through the very height of the steroid era and at least one known user(Bruan) was on the list of players who were able to do it. As for being mad, I wouldn't be mad. I'm just saying temper your expectations. I agree both can eventually be 30+ HR guys. My point was simply it's rare that people do it their rookie seasons and that's basically what you'd need for Granderson to matter. It often takes players until they are 25-27 to finally hit the start of their peak years which is what I've been saying to those down on Rizzo for awhile now. You have a relatively small group of guys like Cabrera, Longira, Trout...etc who are just so good that they start out dominant. You then have other guys like Beltre and Chris Davis who don't immediately hit their stride when they get to the majors.

If you play fantasy baseball at all this is a common strategy. People get ridiculously hype one year for a rookie and he goes out and bombs. Then a year or two goes buy and he's a passing thought and the player breaks out. I think the term usually associated with it is post-hype sleepers.