Cubs Interested in Shin-Soo Choo

[nwfisch]

http://www.chicagonow.com/world-series-dreaming/2013/08/cubs-choo/

From our good friends at WSD..

The Cubs do not have a player on the roster with Choo's skill set and it's debateable whether they have a player like Choo in the organization at all. He gets on base a lot, predominantly with the HBP but he also draws his fair share of walks. Choo walks 11.9% of the time and this year he's upped that rate to 14.6%.
Choo also supplies occasional power and has decent bat to ball skills (career slash line of .288/.387/.464). He's miscast as a centerfielder but Choo can be a fine defensive rightfielder on a contending team.

 

[CSF77]

Quick opinion: Yes. More in depth view, not sure.

Say they run out Lake, Choo and Schierholtz in 2014 Baez comes up. Some one is going to get bumped. OF is pretty much closed up now. Leaves 3B and 2B. So say 3B because for some reason they love looking at Barney. Then later year Alcentra comes up and takes over 2B. That is fine. But look Bryant jumped up to AAA in June and is looking ready to take over 3B. So now what do you do? Bump Lake, Castro or Schierholtz? Ok Schierholtz gets bumped and Bryant gets moved out to RF. Now Soler is looking ready...ok now who? Choo is locked into a big contract? Then Almora etc etc.


Now not every one is going to make it but at this point if they do nothing and just let the system deal with it eventually it will fix it self. In theory.

So in view of this it is better to keep short commitments out in the field because that is where the talent lies.

It makes more sense to invest into the rotation where the system lacks quality.

 

[dabynsky]

Love Choo's skill set, and have thought for a bit now that they would add a veteran hitter in the offseason. Seems like a fit ultimately because not everyone is going to make it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Better pickup than Ellsbury IMHO. He isn't going to be negatively impacting Baez either. Baez will be in IF.

 

[JosMin]

Boy, guess who called this back in May.....

 

[CSF77]

Better pickup than Ellsbury IMHO. He isn't going to be negatively impacting Baez either. Baez will be in IF.

Will he? And who gets bumped? 3B? Invested 7 mil on Bryant. Traded for Olt as an inbetween. SS? Trading Castro? 2B? Alcantra's LH bat is looking good right now in a heavy projected RH line up. And so on.

The only thing that makes sence if they did is plug him at LF and run Lake in CF. When Baez promotes he needs a permanent spot so he can focus on hitting. 3B he has not seen success there and has limited exposure. So I believe the common sense answer is to trade Castro at that point.

So I would not invest into Choo. I would keep Lake in CF and leave LF open for Baez. Right now they have Bog out there and under control. That flexability will start to pay off soon enough. Point is by this time next year they could have a line up with Baez, Lake, Schierholtz, Bryant, Castro, Alcantra, Rizzo, Castillo, Szczur on the bench with Soler and Almora in reach. They should already have excess trade depth at this point if they want an ace. Seems unnessarry

 

[Parade_Rain]

Schierholtz doesn't have a long term contract so outside of 2014 that allows for some flexibility. To make room initially they could move Castro to 2B, which opens the left side of IF for Baez and Bryant. Also Lake has been a pleasant surprise. With all the positions he can play, he can move around as needed, giving rest to a player or filling in for injury. The key is picking up a FA who doesn't cost so much that they can't add pitching in the off season, too.

 

[ChitwnRyan60452]

C'mon we all know if Choo signs with the Cubs, he will immediately begin to suck.

 

[CSF77]

Schierholtz doesn't have a long term contract so outside of 2014 that allows for some flexibility. To make room initially they could move Castro to 2B, which opens the left side of IF for Baez and Bryant. Also Lake has been a pleasant surprise. With all the positions he can play, he can move around as needed, giving rest to a player or filling in for injury. The key is picking up a FA who doesn't cost so much that they can't add pitching in the off season, too.

They could go with:

LF: Bog, CF: Lake, RF: Schierholtz

3B Olt, SS: Castro, 2B: Barney, 1B: Rizzo, C: Castillo

June after super 2: Baez LF Bog moved to bench.
Aug: Alcantra 2B Bryant RF Barney and Schierholtz traded out.

S/T next year: Soler and most likely Almora at Iowa.

So with in 2 years they could be forced into trading out guys to create playing time as it is.

Smart investment is freeing up payroll after Sori is off the books and trade for an Ace. They should have the ability to use Castro as a center piece. They could send out Johnson and Olt if he has built up some value. Few guys out there. 2015 F/A list is meh. Best arm is Kershaw but come on he should be locked up.

I'd go after Price.

Edit: Max Scherzer would be up for F/A also. I'd expect him locked up as well before that point.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I wouldn't pencil Olt in at the MLB level.

 

[beckdawg]

Quick opinion: Yes. More in depth view, not sure.

Say they run out Lake, Choo and Schierholtz in 2014 Baez comes up. Some one is going to get bumped. OF is pretty much closed up now. Leaves 3B and 2B. So say 3B because for some reason they love looking at Barney. Then later year Alcentra comes up and takes over 2B. That is fine. But look Bryant jumped up to AAA in June and is looking ready to take over 3B. So now what do you do? Bump Lake, Castro or Schierholtz? Ok Schierholtz gets bumped and Bryant gets moved out to RF. Now Soler is looking ready...ok now who? Choo is locked into a big contract? Then Almora etc etc.


Now not every one is going to make it but at this point if they do nothing and just let the system deal with it eventually it will fix it self. In theory.

So in view of this it is better to keep short commitments out in the field because that is where the talent lies.

It makes more sense to invest into the rotation where the system lacks quality.

I've been on the Choo bandwagon for awhile now more for his fit. Let's talk about your reasoning. Choo(31) is probably going to get a 4 year deal similar to what Swisher got last year. If every prospect works out you start to get crowded. But every prospect working out is highly unlikely and even if they do there's a high chance of a guy coming up and not being ready.

People are in a huge rush to promote these players. Almora will be 20 to start next season. Soler will be 22. Bryant will be 22. Baez will be 21. Olt will be 25 soon. Lake will be 24. Alcantara will be 22. Szczur will be 25 in the middle of next year. Of these players, only Olt, Lake and Szczur really need to start seeing the major leagues. Baez is probably playing his way into consideration. But just as an example, let's say they sign Choo to a 4 year deal. Why does it hurt having Almora stay in the minors for 3 more years? He'll only be 23.

Simply stated, Choo gives them stability. He's a guy you know what to expect from over the next 4 years. And more importantly, he's great at getting on base which is the biggest problem the cubs had this year. Signing him doesn't exactly block anyone. It gives you the option of having them play more time in the minors instead of rushing someone to the majors. If he's stopping a player like Baez from coming up then you need to make a decision. But why is that a bad thing? You then have the option to trade for other needs most notably probably being pitching.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I've been on the Choo bandwagon for awhile now more for his fit. Let's talk about your reasoning. Choo(31) is probably going to get a 4 year deal similar to what Swisher got last year. If every prospect works out you start to get crowded. But every prospect working out is highly unlikely and even if they do there's a high chance of a guy coming up and not being ready.

People are in a huge rush to promote these players. Almora will be 20 to start next season. Soler will be 22. Bryant will be 22. Baez will be 21. Olt will be 25 soon. Lake will be 24. Alcantara will be 22. Szczur will be 25 in the middle of next year. Of these players, only Olt, Lake and Szczur really need to start seeing the major leagues. Baez is probably playing his way into consideration. But just as an example, let's say they sign Choo to a 4 year deal. Why does it hurt having Almora stay in the minors for 3 more years? He'll only be 23.

Simply stated, Choo gives them stability. He's a guy you know what to expect from over the next 4 years. And more importantly, he's great at getting on base which is the biggest problem the cubs had this year. Signing him doesn't exactly block anyone. It gives you the option of having them play more time in the minors instead of rushing someone to the majors. If he's stopping a player like Baez from coming up then you need to make a decision. But why is that a bad thing? You then have the option to trade for other needs most notably probably being pitching.

I also want to add that someone like Lake could be turned into a super sub who plays 5 days a week pretty much anywhere except 1b and catcher.

 

[czman]

I say pass.

Corner OF who hit 280 with ~18 HRs are not players you seek in FA. Teams can find that at a discounted rate. The Cubs need to go for impact players in FA. Teams can find decent production OFs on shorter deals for decent money.

I think the Cubs need to avoid players like Choo and Swisher. Go big or go home.

 

[SilenceS]

Will he? And who gets bumped? 3B? Invested 7 mil on Bryant. Traded for Olt as an inbetween. SS? Trading Castro? 2B? Alcantra's LH bat is looking good right now in a heavy projected RH line up. And so on.

The only thing that makes sence if they did is plug him at LF and run Lake in CF. When Baez promotes he needs a permanent spot so he can focus on hitting. 3B he has not seen success there and has limited exposure. So I believe the common sense answer is to trade Castro at that point.

So I would not invest into Choo. I would keep Lake in CF and leave LF open for Baez. Right now they have Bog out there and under control. That flexability will start to pay off soon enough. Point is by this time next year they could have a line up with Baez, Lake, Schierholtz, Bryant, Castro, Alcantra, Rizzo, Castillo, Szczur on the bench with Soler and Almora in reach. They should already have excess trade depth at this point if they want an ace. Seems unnessarry

I have shown many different things that say Baez will be at third over Olt(who can not hit a lick this year) and Bryant. Bryant wasn't a 7 million dollar investment for third. He was a 7 million dollar investment for his bat. When he came out, almost the consensus was he will not stay at third. He is to big and doesn't possess the skills to be good at the position. Baez could become a plus defender at third. No one believes Bryant could be average. He has a strong arm. That's about it. That's why they believe he is made for right. Baez is moving to third as early as this winter.

Also, the Cubs are set with Castro at short for at least the next year or two. They believe in him and just believe this is a rough year. They didn't give him the contract to ship him off after one bad season. Now, if he continues to struggle next year then that becomes an option. I truly believe Baez will never play short in the majors.

 

[SilenceS]

I've been on the Choo bandwagon for awhile now more for his fit. Let's talk about your reasoning. Choo(31) is probably going to get a 4 year deal similar to what Swisher got last year. If every prospect works out you start to get crowded. But every prospect working out is highly unlikely and even if they do there's a high chance of a guy coming up and not being ready.

People are in a huge rush to promote these players. Almora will be 20 to start next season. Soler will be 22. Bryant will be 22. Baez will be 21. Olt will be 25 soon. Lake will be 24. Alcantara will be 22. Szczur will be 25 in the middle of next year. Of these players, only Olt, Lake and Szczur really need to start seeing the major leagues. Baez is probably playing his way into consideration. But just as an example, let's say they sign Choo to a 4 year deal. Why does it hurt having Almora stay in the minors for 3 more years? He'll only be 23.

Simply stated, Choo gives them stability. He's a guy you know what to expect from over the next 4 years. And more importantly, he's great at getting on base which is the biggest problem the cubs had this year. Signing him doesn't exactly block anyone. It gives you the option of having them play more time in the minors instead of rushing someone to the majors. If he's stopping a player like Baez from coming up then you need to make a decision. But why is that a bad thing? You then have the option to trade for other needs most notably probably being pitching.

Baez will see time next year, so will Bryant but they wont break camp. They will be an August call up at the earliest. Soler will probably get a call up because he is on the 40 man roster but I wouldn't expect that until Septemper. Alcantara wont be until a September call up as well. The rest are a couple of years away. Szczur I see getting traded out if they sign another OF and Olt has no future until he can hit again. Until that happens. I wouldn't put him in the Cubs plan. He has been worse since becoming a Cub.

 

[DewsSox79]

tough call. i mean his numbers are pretty good. Problem is he will be 32 and could turn out to be a bust of a contract epecially when the cubs are atleast 2 years away.

 

[beckdawg]

I also want to add that someone like Lake could be turned into a super sub who plays 5 days a week pretty much anywhere except 1b and catcher.

Yeah I view Lake as a super utility guy sorta how the rays used zobrist for many years. He can play all 3 OF positions, 2b and 3B possibly even SS if needed.

 

[beckdawg]

Baez will see time next year, so will Bryant but they wont break camp. They will be an August call up at the earliest. Soler will probably get a call up because he is on the 40 man roster but I wouldn't expect that until Septemper. Alcantara wont be until a September call up as well. The rest are a couple of years away. Szczur I see getting traded out if they sign another OF and Olt has no future until he can hit again. Until that happens. I wouldn't put him in the Cubs plan. He has been worse since becoming a Cub.

There's a difference between seeing some time and being an every day starter. Baez ATM probably has the best shot of any to break camp with the cubs and even on him they sound hesitant. That being said, you're probably right that they get called up post Super 2 timing. But even then, they aren't really blocked by signing Choo. And even if they were, it's easy for them to move a bat like Schierholtz at the trade dead line to free up a spot. Even if he's not as good as he was this year, he's a decent bat off the bench.

That's all I'm saying. I think Choo works because a 4 year window gives them the option to slow down the elevation of a lot of their prospects. It's not a case of Rizzo or Castro where they need to promote guys because they have nothing else. The worst case scenario is they have no spot and then they need to move Choo. He'll be cheaper than Soriano and they can eat a small portion of his contract to move him if they have to. If he's making say $13 mil a year you can eat $15 mil after 2 years and get something back for him if you have to.

 

[waldo7239117]

I think Choo will help, but not for the one he will earn. He's a Boras client and teams always overpay. Baez will be 3B and Olt at best is utility. Maybe if he plays good, shift him to 2B. Don't be surprised if Barney isn't back. The Cubs want those questions. There good to have and when the time comes, the proper moves will be made.

 

[beckdawg]

I think Choo will help, but not for the one he will earn. He's a Boras client and teams always overpay.

If he's getting over $15 mil a year hell no. But honestly, I see no reason he gets more than Swisher did last year. Swisher was 1 year older and got 4 years $56 mil. Clearly they are different types of players but let's compare their season averages.

Swisher - 74 runs, 22.4 HR, 71.6 RBIs, 1.2 SB, .255 avg, .359 OBP, .462 SLG, .821 OPS
Choo - 52.8 runs, 11.0, HR, 45.9 RBIs, 11 SB, .288 AVG, .387 OBP, .464 SLG, .851 OPS

It's much more difficult to argue for Choo's value than it is Swisher. Swisher's lowest season in traditional power numbers was 22 HRs, and 69 RBIs. Choo's best season was 22 HRs and he's only been over 69 RBIs twice. If face you could easily make the argument that he gets less than $13 mil a year.

Here's some other comparisons
Coco Crisp(32 at the time 2 year $14 mil) - 59.2 runs, 8.1 HRs, 42.2 RBIs, 22.8 SB, .271 AVG, .329 OBP, .405 SLG, .734 OPS
David DeJesus(32 at the time 2 year $10 mil) - 61.5 runs, 7.8 HR, 46.6 RBI, 5.5 SB, .279 AVG, .353 OBP, .417 SLG, .770 OPS