Cubs Leadoff spot is jinxed - Put Javy there!

[runmdownlos]

I couldn't find a more updated stat than July 29th, 2019:

Stats confirm what fans already know: The Cubs’ offense is struggling

Baseball by the numbers: Cubs leadoff hitters are batting .218 with a .289 on-base percentage.

chicago.suntimes.com

Cubs leadoff hitters are batting .218 with a .289 on-base percentage. That’s not an ideal RBI setup for the hitters who follow. In MLB overall, leadoff men have a .262 batting average and a .331 on-base percentage

this whole season, regardless of who's leading off, there just isn't production. The cubs have the solution, but just aren't using him. You need have the right personality to Leadoff. Javy has a complete game and the strong personality to handle the pressure that comes with the leadoff spot. Plus, at leadoff, the more at bats he'll get. We can always use more Javy!

in 2015, 2017, and 2018, it was the Bats that went cold in the playoffs. with the right spark at the top of the lineup, good things can happen.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Schwarber or Rizzo are your best options, to at least take alot of pitches.

With Rizzo's decline in power, despite his lack of speed, and other power that has emerged like Baez who can bat 3..

Rizzo
Bryant
Baez

with Heyward in the 9 hole to separate them from pitcher a bit....is how I would begin. Heyward should get pitches to hit in that scenario, and so should Bryant. After that structure, the rest of the guys should probably be ordered situationally based on the matchup.

I told you a month ago Heyward wasn't a lead-off hitter, as we have seen this several times and not just as a cub. He is an ideal 9 and will pay dividends there while being a shut-down defender. 200,000,000 be damned...its where he belongs.

I thought this organization was supposed to be analytics buffs but I think they out smart themselves too often.

 

[anotheridiot]

This is just about the only statement that will change my mind about Javy moving to leadoff, that the spot is jinxed. Why would we want to Jinx Javy?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Baez doesn’t take enough pitches to lead off. World’s dumbest Cubs article. He’s a 4 hitter.

 

[anotheridiot]

Baez doesn’t take enough pitches to lead off. World’s dumbest Cubs article. He’s a 4 hitter.

Well, problem is, he is not a 4 hitter. He is now a 5 hitter because Madden wont put Rizzo down to 5 no matter how bad he is struggling. Rizzo singles, Javy drives one in the gap, the only place Rizzo is getting to is third. Then a wild pitch, Rizzo stays at third. It is really going to take Javy lapping Rizzo on the bases to make some people realize this.

There were always a few reasons for guys to lead off over the years, fast so he can steal second and score on a base hit, fast so he can wreak havoc on the bases and throw off a pitchers concentration on the mound and force mistakes on pitches to 2,3 and 4 hitters.

The peanut gallery has concluded put that guy behind 4 other guys and remove his aggressiveness on the basepaths.

Now, the #1, most important reason for a guy to lead off is to take pitches and draw walks.

Cufking genius.

 

[DB012031]

Why not go KB at leadoff then. Hi OBP and much more speed that Rizzo. I would also have Rizzo hitting after Baez as he just clogs the bases when in front of Javy - Line Up would be:

KB
Nick the Stick
Javy
Rizzo
Wilson (when healthy)
Scwarber
Russel
Jey-Hey
Pitcher

I also find it odd/crazy that Scwarber has more HR and RBI than KB and that is with Kyle having over 200 appearances at leadoff. I cannot find the article but I recall reading a couple of weeks ago that based on Kyle's hit chart, if the shift was NOT used, his batting average would be about 50 points higher (so in the .270 - .280 range). So, while he sees a lot of pitches, putting him at leadoff basically limits his ability to hit. Putting him in that 5/6/7 spot with high OBP guys in front of him, you cannot play the shift with runners in scoring positions. This Mets series is a great example, that double he hit, that would have been right into the shift had their not been runners in scoring position.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Did you try Constenellos there yet?

1. Constantine
2. KB
3. Rizzo
4. Baez
5. Schwarber
6. Contreras
7. Russell
8. Pitcher
9. Heyward

For your one game against Scherzer. Good luck.

While Maddon might be the one to get fired, its Epstein who didn't sign Fowler. Maddon told yall Fowler made the offense go, but nooooooo, nobody listens to the actual manager trying to make the thing run, right?

You clearly have no lead-off man if Constenellos can't do it.

Would you trade Quintana for Fowler straight up right now?

 

[SilenceS]

Zobrist is coming back Sunday and he will leadoff when he starts. When he doesnt, Maddon is going to stick with J Hey.

 

[anotheridiot]

Zobrist is coming back Sunday and he will leadoff when he starts. When he doesnt, Maddon is going to stick with J Hey.

Sounds about right, I think he is hitting .160 against A, AA and AAA pitching.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Well, problem is, he is not a 4 hitter. He is now a 5 hitter because Madden wont put Rizzo down to 5 no matter how bad he is struggling. Rizzo singles, Javy drives one in the gap, the only place Rizzo is getting to is third. Then a wild pitch, Rizzo stays at third. It is really going to take Javy lapping Rizzo on the bases to make some people realize this.

There were always a few reasons for guys to lead off over the years, fast so he can steal second and score on a base hit, fast so he can wreak havoc on the bases and throw off a pitchers concentration on the mound and force mistakes on pitches to 2,3 and 4 hitters.

The peanut gallery has concluded put that guy behind 4 other guys and remove his aggressiveness on the basepaths.

Now, the #1, most important reason for a guy to lead off is to take pitches and draw walks.

Cufking genius.

The number 1 important reason for a guy to lead off is to get on base. A player with a low walk rate doesn’t belong at lead off. Fact!

 

[anotheridiot]

The number 1 important reason for a guy to lead off is to get on base. A player with a low walk rate doesn’t belong at lead off. Fact!

yeah, a guy that hits .345 with BABIP that blows up pitchers and defenders when he is on the bases counts for nothing. He should have a .255BABIP and walk 50 times instead.

 

[Parade_Rain]

yeah, a guy that hits .345 with BABIP that blows up pitchers and defenders when he is on the bases counts for nothing. He should have a .255BABIP and walk 50 times instead.

LOL. A guy who walks can always be a catalyst up top. A guy who walks can always find himself on the bases to steal bags. A guy who hits but doesn’t have a high walk rate gets in slumps and isn’t on the bags again until he starts hitting again. Perhaps you don’t understand that no matter where someone hits in the lineup OBR doesn’t have a rule against that person swiping bags, as long as it isn’t 1st base. Until they change the rule where guys can steal 1st base, players with low walk rates will not be ideal leadoff hitters. Fact!

 

[SilenceS]

Sounds about right, I think he is hitting .160 against A, AA and AAA pitching.

Lol

 

[CSF77]

Ok I get your main points here.

But Prade is right.

The basics is a lead off avg 5 PA per game.

If you are avg a .300 OBA that means 70% of the time you are a out.

There is no other way to look at this.

So idealistic you want a hitter closer to .400 OBA and unless you are Ted Williams you better be walking.

A 40% OBA is a 2 on base per 5 PA. that is not a reach. A 30% like Almora is avg 1.5 OB per game.

Now a good BABIP pays off after 1-2 OBA types.

Say Bryant and Rizzo then Baez getting up with 2 .400 OBA types ahead of him. That is perfectly fine.

Now the main issue with this current line up is Heyward. He needs to be moved down. He sucks at the top.

Bryant and Rizzo would be fine leading off. Get more PA for guys pushing .400 and more RBI opertunites for Baez.

But it is using a little common sense and putting the cylinders into the round hole vs the box.

 

[CSF77]

Lol

He is right. But guys like that wake up in the spotlight.

Theo said the biggest issue was getting his bat speed up to fastball speed. Then working on adjusting to the slower stuff. Sounds like he is more at slider speed ATM. and not adjusting to speed variables.

 

[anotheridiot]

Ok I get your main points here.

But Prade is right.

The basics is a lead off avg 5 PA per game.

If you are avg a .300 OBA that means 70% of the time you are a out.

There is no other way to look at this.

So idealistic you want a hitter closer to .400 OBA and unless you are Ted Williams you better be walking.

A 40% OBA is a 2 on base per 5 PA. that is not a reach. A 30% like Almora is avg 1.5 OB per game.

Now a good BABIP pays off after 1-2 OBA types.

Say Bryant and Rizzo then Baez getting up with 2 .400 OBA types ahead of him. That is perfectly fine.

Now the main issue with this current line up is Heyward. He needs to be moved down. He sucks at the top.

Bryant and Rizzo would be fine leading off. Get more PA for guys pushing .400 and more RBI opertunites for Baez.

But it is using a little common sense and putting the cylinders into the round hole vs the box.

I dont think you got my point, since the point was when Javy actually hits the baseball, he gets a hit at a .345 rate. You know what mike trouts BABIP is? .299.

Major League Leaderboards - 2019 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

I do not know where the actual BABIP number is, but Javier Baez is top on the cubs.

Major League Leaderboards - 2019 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

I would say that negates some of his non walk plate appearances.

 

[SilenceS]

He is right. But guys like that wake up in the spotlight.

Theo said the biggest issue was getting his bat speed up to fastball speed. Then working on adjusting to the slower stuff. Sounds like he is more at slider speed ATM. and not adjusting to speed variables.

It’s a what? Small sample? It’s why zobrist asked for pitchers to come to his house. I don’t think Zobrist will be great but he will give a professional at bat 90 percent of the time and put the ball in play. Cubs don’t need a power hitter or a high average guy. They need someone to stretch the lineup and a pitcher which is big in mlb right now. Bullpen epidemic is real across the whole league. Teams who get into bullpens have a better shot at winning this year.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I dont think you got my point, since the point was when Javy actually hits the baseball, he gets a hit at a .345 rate. You know what mike trouts BABIP is? .299.

Major League Leaderboards - 2019 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

I do not know where the actual BABIP number is, but Javier Baez is top on the cubs.

Major League Leaderboards - 2019 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

I would say that negates some of his non walk plate appearances.

WTF is BABIP doing in a discussion of lead off. OBP is king. Baez is 16th on the team in OBP. Now for qualified players, that means he is behind Rizzo, Castellanos, Bryant, Contreras, Bote, Heyward, Happ, Schwarber, more.

 

[Diehardfan]

WTF is BABIP doing in a discussion of lead off. OBP is king. Baez is 16th on the team in OBP. Now for qualified players, that means he is behind Rizzo, Castellanos, Bryant, Contreras, Bote, Heyward, Happ, Schwarber, more.

LOL.....just thinking how much dumb shit this guy has had to post before someone here would even acknowledge that he exists. That being said, he looks like a genius compared to DorkJohnson.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Zobrist is coming back Sunday and he will leadoff when he starts. When he doesnt, Maddon is going to stick with J Hey.

ahhh, I was afraid to ask to be honest. Thats the best solution unless Scwarber gets hot.