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It might be a little of both...he's rusty, and he isn't as good as suggested by his overblown scouting video. Seems that most scouts looking at him think he has tools that can be useful, though, and being that no one knows how exactly his skills in Cuba will translate to MLB, would have to trust that the scouts know what they're talking about.
As I said previously, blowing $32MM or so for 5-6 years of Cespedes is a relative drop in the bucket for someone who could produce magnitudes above that. If he's a bust, then you're basically paying him about as much as Marlon Byrd so it's not the end of the world.
Part of me feels that 5-6 years for $32 million seems a bit low for him. But we will see.