Cubs offseason needs/ Talk

[Castor76]

You got that right. MLB is getting more and more like the NFL with so many situational players. No more set lineups you send out there daily....no more starters going 8 or 9 innings....all kinds of righty vs lefty lineups and vice versa. At some point it won't be 100 pitches anymore either. It'll be starter 4/5 innings, middle 6/7, setup 8 and closer 9. The DH allows for bigger pitching staffs and guys like Ross will use them. The deeper your team is the better.

I've always wanted to toy with the idea of trying to do a take on a 6 man rotation in a video game where you pair two pitchers to alternate "starts" and "relief" where both pitchers go for 3 innings in a 3 game set. The idea being that batters tend to do much better the 2nd and 3rd time they see a pitcher in a given day so you try to limit the number of times a pitcher goes through a lineup to maybe 15 batters or 3 IP and then do it again after 2 days of rest. In theory, each pitcher would get 27 starts and 27 relief appearances at 3 innings each, giving him 162 IP for a season. The relief appearances would be innings 4-6, making them eligible to get the win should the team get or protect a lead. If you could mix up styles, you could keep a line up out of synch most games. Essentially the entire staff would be bull pen pitchers. With the elimination of bringing in a pitcher to pitch to one hitter unless it ends the inning, the one out specialist is no longer there.

If no one cares about qualifying for the ERA title, you make it 8 guys creating a 4-man rotation and you still have a set up, closer, and 3 mop up/long relief guy slots. Completely insane, but . . . yeah, just insane.

 

[CSF77]

I kind of disagree.

Swanson is a bit of a iron man out there. 696 PA
Hoerner put up 517 PA.

So there is not much playing time to spend.

Last year
Morel 425 PA 108 wRC+
Mad 228 PA 70 wRC+
Mancini 587 PA 104 wRC+

So TBH Mancini should play every day. Either 1B or DH depending on the pitcher. So you could say give DH to Mad on those days. Why? Those days you could put a everyday at DH and push Morel to that position. IE flex vs Mad's non flex.

If I was Jed I would stuff Mad at Iowa to get full time play to prove that he is healthy. Then use him as a trade chip when his value has been reinstated. Right now it is low. As a UI he doesn't have the arm for SS or 3B so his value is limited to Hoerner moving to SS. But Swanson is an iron man, Thus limited to Hoerner's off. But Morel plays a solid 2B and has a strong arm. Thus making Mad #2 option at 2B.

We can go on here but the deck is stacked against him right now. David could just lead off with Suzuki, who proved to have a strong plate discipline and go into 2023 just fine.

Mad is a 26th man right now and tbh that spot should goto pen depth while the rotation is building up pitch counts in Apr.

 

[beckdawg]

So... lotta talk about mervis which makes sense given the year he had but don't sleep on Bryce Ball. This was a guy who was known for his power when they got him from Atlanta with fangraphs putting a 70 raw power and 60 game power grade on him. The knock on him was his hit tool with him striking out roughly 27% of the time in A+ between atlanta/chc. However, last year in AA with the cubs he dropped his k rate to 21.5% over a pretty large sample(562 PAs). The overall slash line was kind meh at .265/.357/.405 for a 105 wRC+ but the thing is he largely did that without a ton of power(.140 ISO and 11 HRs). His plate discipline too was pretty good at 12.3% bb rate. If he gets any more of that power back which i mean... he's 6'6 240 so I imagine he'll find it eventually... he could have a really big year too. I imagine he'll move to AAA to start this season so if mervis is also there one of them probably dh's as i dont' think any is particularly a wizard defensively.

 

[CSF77]

So... lotta talk about mervis which makes sense given the year he had but don't sleep on Bryce Ball. This was a guy who was known for his power when they got him from Atlanta with fangraphs putting a 70 raw power and 60 game power grade on him. The knock on him was his hit tool with him striking out roughly 27% of the time in A+ between atlanta/chc. However, last year in AA with the cubs he dropped his k rate to 21.5% over a pretty large sample(562 PAs). The overall slash line was kind meh at .265/.357/.405 for a 105 wRC+ but the thing is he largely did that without a ton of power(.140 ISO and 11 HRs). His plate discipline too was pretty good at 12.3% bb rate. If he gets any more of that power back which i mean... he's 6'6 240 so I imagine he'll find it eventually... he could have a really big year too. I imagine he'll move to AAA to start this season so if mervis is also there one of them probably dh's as i dont' think any is particularly a wizard defensively.

The parks at AA repress power. It is a pitchers league. So I normally do not consider it a red flag.

But he is a bit of a reach tbh. Even Mervis is a bit of a reach. Jed gave him the go to play for team Israel. Which means that he is missing some S/T. He is not in the 40. So this tells me Iowa 100% and Jed will let his performance dictate what happens.

End of the day. Jed made a smart choice targeting Mancini and Hosmer. It provides vet stability while the youth are developing.

 

[knoxville7]

So... lotta talk about mervis which makes sense given the year he had but don't sleep on Bryce Ball. This was a guy who was known for his power when they got him from Atlanta with fangraphs putting a 70 raw power and 60 game power grade on him. The knock on him was his hit tool with him striking out roughly 27% of the time in A+ between atlanta/chc. However, last year in AA with the cubs he dropped his k rate to 21.5% over a pretty large sample(562 PAs). The overall slash line was kind meh at .265/.357/.405 for a 105 wRC+ but the thing is he largely did that without a ton of power(.140 ISO and 11 HRs). His plate discipline too was pretty good at 12.3% bb rate. If he gets any more of that power back which i mean... he's 6'6 240 so I imagine he'll find it eventually... he could have a really big year too. I imagine he'll move to AAA to start this season so if mervis is also there one of them probably dh's as i dont' think any is particularly a wizard defensively.

The same Bryce ball we acquired by trading away Joc Pederson?! Amazing!

@jts1207 how bout THEM PEANUTS?!

 

[cameronkrazie86]

The same Bryce ball we acquired by trading away Joc Pederson?! Amazing!

@jts1207 how bout THEM PEANUTS?!

Braves legend Joc Pederson. Thanks for the trade!

 

[Diehardfan]

I'd keep Mervis close.....Hosmer appears to be fading. Mancini hasn't done much either....sure, he gives you about 20 HRs but the trade off is 140 K's which makes him Wisdom Pt2. Why keep running these guys in their twilight years out there? It's fucking patch work. Find out what your kids can do first....I mean this is not a WS team we're talking about.

 

[Castor76]

I'd keep Mervis close.....Hosmer appears to be fading. Mancini hasn't done much either....sure, he gives you about 20 HRs but the trade off is 140 K's which makes him Wisdom Pt2. Why keep running these guys in their twilight years out there? It's fucking patch work. Find out what your kids can do first....I mean this is not a WS team we're talking about.

They are going to keep Mervis close. I also think they plan is to keep him playing most everyday and that means Iowa. I know he's going to be 25 this season, but if he repeats his AAA numbers again he's up on the major league team by June 1st anyway. Even if you have some regression in Nico and Happ and they go from nearly a 9 WAR to an 8, if Suzuki can be healthy all year, he makes that up by himself. You look at the other additions versus losses/subtractions and the Cubs legitimately should be looking at 80-82 wins. They lost about 3 WAR in bats, all of that being Contreras. They lost about the same in pitching. If the players brought in just repeat the value they provided last year, the Cubs are up about 6 in the WAR department. Bellinger has any bounce back and it's maybe as high as 9.

 

[CSF77]

Mervis is still not proven. He was nothing. Cubs did a swing adjustment and he became babe 2.0. if feels fluke vs fashion. So going in with proven is a smart play from Jed. Hosmer is making nothing so even if he ends up a PH that teaches Mervis how to play 1B under the 3rd deck it is a far better investment than rain out speeches that cost 200M.

 

[CSF77]

Next time rent Tony Robbins. Better investment

Or slap chop guy. He will teach them how to hit something

 

[TL1961]

Mervis is still not proven. He was nothing. Cubs did a swing adjustment and he became babe 2.0. if feels fluke vs fashion. So going in with proven is a smart play from Jed. Hosmer is making nothing so even if he ends up a PH that teaches Mervis how to play 1B under the 3rd deck it is a far better investment than rain out speeches that cost 200M.

Am I imagining things or weren't you yourself acting like Mervis was Babe 2.0 just six months ago?

 

[CSF77]

Am I imagining things or weren't you yourself acting like Mervis was Babe 2.0 just six months ago?

I like him. But lets be real here. Most likely not going to translate. If it does then Hosmer is not making enough to hold him back.

Pretty simple

Happ and Schwarber both struggled and both were round 1 picks vs a surprise development.

So yes I have to be realistic on expectations.

 

[Castor76]

I like him. But lets be real here. Most likely not going to translate. If it does then Hosmer is not making enough to hold him back.

Pretty simple

Happ and Schwarber both struggled and both were round 1 picks vs a surprise development.

So yes I have to be realistic on expectations.

Mervis' draft year was a year with only 5 rounds. I agree that I'd like to see him put up those number once more before just anointing him 1B of the future. I think he will. As you said, if he does, it's not like Hosmer's contract makes him uncutable.

 

[Diehardfan]

I like him. But lets be real here. Most likely not going to translate. If it does then Hosmer is not making enough to hold him back.

Pretty simple

Happ and Schwarber both struggled and both were round 1 picks vs a surprise development.

So yes I have to be realistic on expectations.

That never stopped your outlandish projections in the past.....so now because higher picks struggled, lower round guys will definitely suck?Guys like Hader, DeGrom, Puljols, Ryan and Piazza among many others....would disagree.

I have no idea if Mervis is the real deal or not....I do know you won't find out having him play in AAA.

This is probably only a near .500 team....find out what you have now when it doesn't mean jack, not when you need to win later.

 

[CSF77]

That never stopped your outlandish projections in the past.....so now because higher picks struggled, lower round guys will definitely suck?Guys like Hader, DeGrom, Puljols, Ryan and Piazza among many others....would disagree.

I have no idea if Mervis is the real deal or not....I do know you won't find out having him play in AAA.

This is probably only a near .500 team....find out what you have now when it doesn't mean jack, not when you need to win later.

I was actually thinking Pujos after writing that. Shoot every team dreams of that. Far more Schwindl results though.

Never know. But he has to prove it.

 

[CSF77]

Jed Hoyer Speaks: Learning Lessons from Failure, The "Front Edge" of a Successful Run, Rizzo, Suzuki, Bellinger, Hosmer, More - Bleacher Nation

Cubs president Jed Hoyer gets into a range of topics from the offseason and for the year ahead.

www.bleachernation.com

 

[CSF77]

Of the youth pending. I'm looking forward to Hayden this year. PCA will make it on his D alone. 80 grade is rare at the majors much less minors at any position. CF is a premium. So I see him pushed through AA-AAA and in the AFL and on the 40 man in spring.

These two I see as sure things. Brown an Wicks are hopeful. Wicks was seen as a floor guy based off of his change up. But the Cubs have made him rely on it less to further develop his fastball and his slider, His fastball was 90-92 now up to 92-94. Has better command of his slider and owns one of the best changeups in the minors. So now he is looking like a legit middle of the rotation arm vs a floor guy.

These are guys that I feel good about going forward because they were prospects going in and are becoming polished products.

Guys like Pujos don't come around. You can almost count how many players came out of no where and became all stars. That is what makes them special because of how rare they are.

That said. I hope but I don't plan my future on the lotto.

So if Mervis busts. PCA pushes up to the majors in spring. Bellinger rebounds and Jed decides to pay him and move him to 1B. I think 2024 becomes a fun year.

Mervis cutting it really saves $$$ in the end. I really don't expect more than Wisdom TBH. ML pitching is too good for a kid to come up and dominate.

 

[CSF77]

scouting report

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 35 | Arm: 60 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

Mervis spent most of his first two college seasons at Duke on the mound before becoming primarily a corner infielder in his final two. After he got shut out in the shortened five-round 2020 Draft, he became a priority nondrafted free agent for several clubs and signed with Chicago for the maximum $20,000 allowed under pandemic rules. He bounced back from a disappointing 2021 pro debut to become one of the system's most dangerous hitters this summer while climbing from High-A to Triple-A.

Mervis may hit the ball consistently harder while limiting swings-and-misses better than any other Cubs prospect. He's tapping into his well-above-average raw power this year thanks to improved swing decisions and a more direct path with his left-handed stroke. His bat speed and the strength in his 6-foot-4 frame are his most obvious attributes, but he also has some hitting ability and a decent approach.

Unless he increases his production against southpaws, Mervis may be more of a platoon player. A well-below-average runner and an adequate defender at first base, he also played some third base at Duke but lacks the range to do so as a pro. As a college pitcher, he worked with a low-90s fastball with high spin rates and flashed a solid slider in the low 80s.

 

[cixabeftaylor]

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[CSF77]

Someone ban that spammer