Cubs over/under predictions?

[Castor76]

Lol you mustve been the only one still praying for a playoff spot last week of 19. Joe and the team gave up way earlier than that. Just ask Javy. He said it himself. They weren't prepared.

Let me ask you this, do the dodgers suck when they get deep in to the playoffs each and every year to fall short of a WS?

Some can say yes and some have your mind set and say no.

Do you think the Dodgers would rather have the last 5 years they've had or the last 5 the Cubs have had? Because only one of those includes an actual title. Over the past 5 seasons, you could argue no team has had a better run than the Cubs. Astros? They got outed as cheaters. Nationals? They missed the playoffs twice with barley above .500 seasons in that time. Dodgers? No titles in that time.

The team got beat up by a rough as schedule the last 30 days of 2018 and no help from MLB with back to back playoff games. Yeah, their seasons ended badly, but that comes for every team with legit title hopes that doesn't win the title.

 

[CSF77]

Do you think the Dodgers would rather have the last 5 years they've had or the last 5 the Cubs have had? Because only one of those includes an actual title. Over the past 5 seasons, you could argue no team has had a better run than the Cubs. Astros? They got outed as cheaters. Nationals? They missed the playoffs twice with barley above .500 seasons in that time. Dodgers? No titles in that time.

The team got beat up by a rough as schedule the last 30 days of 2018 and no help from MLB with back to back playoff games. Yeah, their seasons ended badly, but that comes for every team with legit title hopes that doesn't win the title.

2018 they rode Hamels resurgence. 2019 they rode Nick's break out. 2017 they rode Q's trade 2016 they rode Chapman's trade.

Pretty much every year they were co-dependant on a outsourcing. 2015 it was internal. Jake was the fire that pushed that team.

Well I take it as they need a pitcher to step up and to take on that ace role. That is what this team really needs to get to the next level.

You take the Astros. Cheating or not they had 2 dominant aces last year. The Nat's had 2 legit aces last year. To me I still see the Nat's as the team to beat in the NL. They match up with any team and those two can shut down line ups.

Now if Yu can keep last year's 2nd half over a full year then the script changes for them. If Chatwood also has a breakout then it could become special.

I see Hendricks as a limited starter that can toss a gem here and there but he lacks the velocity to over come days that his command is not pin point.

Lester is over the hill. That said he still knows how to win games with less stuff. But that doesn't work in a series.

Q.... Well that guy is the biggest under achiever that I have ever seen. Even with the Sox he lacked the will to win. His out put really was underwhelming compared to his actual numbers.

That is my take. And to be honest the O will generate runs. The pen should be middle of the road. But the team's fate lies in the rotation.

Now I get your opinion over the last 5 years. I do. But over that span the Dodgers and the Yankee's have both come up short and it took 2 teams to cheat to beat them.

The Cubs on the other hand lacked value and had to go external to even get into the play offs.

 

[Diehardfan]

The Q trade stills bugs me. I don't watch a lot of Sox games but my brother is a huge Sox fan. He was ecstatic over the trade. He told me Q will never be a consistent winner. He does well in two ways....1) when undisciplined hitters chase his off the plate stuff all game or 2) when umpires give him a huge strike zone. Any other scenario.....he will walk guys and will panic under pressure leading to big innings.

I bring this up now because he just reminded me of that conversation last Sunday.

 

[Castor76]

The Q trade stills bugs me. I don't watch a lot of Sox games but my brother is a huge Sox fan. He was ecstatic over the trade. He told me Q will never be a consistent winner. He does well in two ways....1) when undisciplined hitters chase his off the plate stuff all game or 2) when umpires give him a huge strike zone. Any other scenario.....he will walk guys and will panic under pressure leading to big innings.

I bring this up now because he just reminded me of that conversation last Sunday.

The Q trade was about trying to maximize a window by leveraging the future. While it didn't lead to a title, the only actual loss for the Cubs was Cease. Eloy was never anything but trade bait on this Cubs team. He has no spot in the field or the line up even now.

 

[CSF77]

The Q trade was about trying to maximize a window by leveraging the future. While it didn't lead to a title, the only actual loss for the Cubs was Cease. Eloy was never anything but trade bait on this Cubs team. He has no spot in the field or the line up even now.

I don't agree but your opinion is not wrong at all on this.

I saw Cease as something they did not have. Eloy was something that they did have.

So if it was Eloy and a pitcher like Maples then ya it would have been fine.

But my issue is offloading the farm like they did. They took the #1 farm took what they wanted and then fireballed it in trades which was short term gains.

To me the core problem with Theo and co will always be in targeting and developing pitching. And until he is gone and they bring in some one who has a solid history of running teams that self develop pitching this will continue.

 

[Diehardfan]

The Q trade was about trying to maximize a window by leveraging the future. While it didn't lead to a title, the only actual loss for the Cubs was Cease. Eloy was never anything but trade bait on this Cubs team. He has no spot in the field or the line up even now.

You missed the point by a wide margin.....it's not so much who the Cubs traded but who they traded for. That kind of package should have brought back much more in return. Ok, ok.... so he was locked in at low cost for a few yrs but what the **** good is an affordable player that sucks?

 

[SilenceS]

The Q trade stills bugs me. I don't watch a lot of Sox games but my brother is a huge Sox fan. He was ecstatic over the trade. He told me Q will never be a consistent winner. He does well in two ways....1) when undisciplined hitters chase his off the plate stuff all game or 2) when umpires give him a huge strike zone. Any other scenario.....he will walk guys and will panic under pressure leading to big innings.

I bring this up now because he just reminded me of that conversation last Sunday.

I agree in a way but they were going for a ship again. He was the most value by years and cost for the cost on prospects. They knew the financial aspect at that time and eloy is a dh in this league and they chose schwarber. Cease is a work in progress. Came off tommy John out of hs and had control issues which is something he still has to control. May end up bad for the Cubs but that window was what they were looking at

 

[Diehardfan]

I agree in a way but they were going for a ship again. He was the most value by years and cost for the cost on prospects. They knew the financial aspect at that time and eloy is a dh in this league and they chose schwarber. Cease is a work in progress. Came off tommy John out of hs and had control issues which is something he still has to control. May end up bad for the Cubs but that window was what they were looking at

Again.....it's not about who they traded. The fact is apparently Sox fans knew something that Cub's scouts clearly missed. Sure, he was affordable but what good is an affordable player who doesn't produce? If he comes here, plays well and the Cubs win.....like Chapman, it's all good. He didn't and the Cubs are paying for it.

 

[CSF77]

I would rather not dwell on the past. Most of the signs are showing that Theo will move on after his deal is up and to be honest it is time for a turn over.

They had their run but ignoring pitching development will always be my biggest pet peeve with him. Cease was a smart pick up but he fell into their laps after TJ and it made sense to sign Schwarber for under to get him.

That in it self was never the issue. The issue was not targeting the top arms in the drafts. How many pitchers slipped by them. I could say an Ace on the south side was passed for Almora.

 

[CSF77]

I agree in a way but they were going for a ship again. He was the most value by years and cost for the cost on prospects. They knew the financial aspect at that time and eloy is a dh in this league and they chose schwarber. Cease is a work in progress. Came off tommy John out of hs and had control issues which is something he still has to control. May end up bad for the Cubs but that window was what they were looking at

A bigger issue was having Soler in the minors and then taking Schwarber in the draft. They pretty much handcuffed themselves and then went for broke with Heyward.

Now I kinda get it. Schwarber LF. Soler RF.... Uhm nope Soler sucks so sign Heyward and uhm.... And target Eloy and trade Soler for a closer rental.

It would have been easier to target the top SP prospect vs Schwarber at a discount to get Cease who they ended up tossing away for Q.

Again until they actually start investing into self development of pitching this chaos will continue.

And Marquez is a nice find but they should have a stronger depth system for pitching vs continuing to draft Catchers and MI.

 

[anotheridiot]

A bigger issue was having Soler in the minors and then taking Schwarber in the draft. They pretty much handcuffed themselves and then went for broke with Heyward.

Now I kinda get it. Schwarber LF. Soler RF.... Uhm nope Soler sucks so sign Heyward and uhm.... And target Eloy and trade Soler for a closer rental.

It would have been easier to target the top SP prospect vs Schwarber at a discount to get Cease who they ended up tossing away for Q.

Again until they actually start investing into self development of pitching this chaos will continue.

And Marquez is a nice find but they should have a stronger depth system for pitching vs continuing to draft Catchers and MI.

I really never ever heard anyone say that Soler sucked until Heyward moved into town. Remember, if Fowler did not return, the outfield would have been Schwarber, Heyward, Soler.
I think the move was more watching Heyward in center field in spring training, than becoming enlightened that Soler could not defend anymore.

In 95 games, he had 149 chances, 144 putouts, 4 assists, 1 error, 1 double play.
Heyward gets 10 assists in a year and guys are spooging all over their keyboards.

Now they put Billboards up in KC for the guy.

 

[CSF77]

I really never ever heard anyone say that Soler sucked until Heyward moved into town. Remember, if Fowler did not return, the outfield would have been Schwarber, Heyward, Soler.
I think the move was more watching Heyward in center field in spring training, than becoming enlightened that Soler could not defend anymore.

In 95 games, he had 149 chances, 144 putouts, 4 assists, 1 error, 1 double play.
Heyward gets 10 assists in a year and guys are spooging all over their keyboards.

Now they put Billboards up in KC for the guy.

There is more to it but yes it is over rated and the fact that they traded for a worse RF in Nick really showed that the whole D>O is 100% incorrect info and it was just a opinion at the time and the results showed that losing O in lieu of D is worse than the other way around.

Now Jason had a turn around last year until they pushed him into the lead off. Basically he was a 112 wRC+ player before and after the lead off. As a lead off he was a 55. So taking a player that is 12% better than avg as a hitter and in the top 5% of RF D is far superior to a 1 way player. Regardless of the total value each brings.

Pretty sure WAS debunked that last year by not resigning a over paid person.

 

[Castor76]

I just want to point out that in 3 of his 4 seasons before coming to the Cubs, Q was top 20 in WAR among starting pitchers. He was having a crap season but I'm sure, like most coaches, the Cubs staff thought a change of scenery and their guidance he'd turn it around. I didn't work.

 

[CSF77]

I just want to point out that in 3 of his 4 seasons before coming to the Cubs, Q was top 20 in WAR among starting pitchers. He was having a crap season but I'm sure, like most coaches, the Cubs staff thought a change of scenery and their guidance he'd turn it around. I didn't work.

2012 6-6 3.76 ERA 1.6 WAR. 136 IP Good team he had a nice start. (2nd in ALC)
2013 9-7 3.51 ERA 3.4 WAR 200 IP (took over as the #2) bad team (5th ALC)
2014 9-11 3.32 ERA 4.9 WAR (team was bad) (4th ALC)
2015 9-10 3.36 ERA 4.3 WAR (team was bad) (4th ALC)
2016 13-12 3.20 ERA 4.9 WAR (team was bad again) (4th ALC)

IMO it took them too long to blow it up and ran these guys out there until the price tags got too high and then they smashed it apart. But after 4 years of sucking but not enough to get a top 3 pick they should have reacted sooner.

So I do buy your opinion on him. Last year he nosed up to a 3.5 WAR again and the 1.7 might end up just a blip on the radar. Steamer has him at 2.5 and that seems to be a safe call.

But the key on him is his BB/9. 2018 3.51. 2018 2.91. Both years were a drop off for him. Last year down to 2.42.

Now this seems to be a luck issue with him also as his ERA was at 4.68 and his FIP was at 3.80. HR/FB 12.1 last year. 14.7 year before. 2014-2016 it was under 10%. But as a whole it has been on the rise until last year's dip.

So IMO it really comes down to his curveball and how he uses it to play off his fastball. That is key for him.