Cubs pitching 2017 and beyond

[DanTown]

The answer to the question of what the Cubs need to do with their pitching staff is a tough one. They really don't need a great pitching staff because of how good the team projects in 2017 (and beyond) to be defensively.

- Contreras is an elite defensive catcher
- Rizzo is an adequate defender at first
- Russell is a top 5 defensive SS
- Bryant is a top 5 defensive 3B
- Heyward is a gold glove OF
- Almora is a potential high value OF
- Baez is a utility defender capable of gold glove defense

When you have a great defensive team, you don't need to have some dynamic pitching staff, you just need to have guys who get contact and who do not walk guys. One of the more alarming things about Arrieta (and Ross) to an extent is their walk rates considering how good the defense is behind him.

If it was me, I'd try to lock up Ross to a three or four year deal, resign Arrieta to a five (but not six) year deal and if I don't get Arrieta, I look to sign a depth arm. I'd move Montgomery to the bullpen long term (I think he can be a super valuable reliever there as opposed to a middling starter) and I'd aim for the following rotation

2017
Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Lackey, Ross/Montgomery

2018
Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Ross, cheap arm/prospect

2019
Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Ross, Cease/de La Cruz

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Everything I've read suggests that Cease will start at Myrtle Beach. When asked about Jed Hoyer hasn't confirmed that but has suggested that it's very possible. Of course you never know with these things.

 

[beckdawg]

Everything I've read suggests that Cease will start at Myrtle Beach. When asked about Jed Hoyer hasn't confirmed that but has suggested that it's very possible. Of course you never know with these things.

Maybe. I'm just not sure he's advanced enough right now to fly through AA anyways. Maybe they push him to AA to get advanced hitters to force him to improve his change up. That would sort of make sense given most low level hitters probably can't handle his fb/curve. All I'm saying is I'm very dubious he's in the majors that quickly and even if he is I can't see it being more than him pitching out of the bullpen. He's just not built up the stamina you need to throw 180 innings. Typically teams don't jump a guy from 40 innings to 150 in one year. If all goes right I'd expect him to throw around 100 innings next year then 150 the following building up to that 180-200 mark you want out of a starter.

 

[SilenceS]

Maybe. I'm just not sure he's advanced enough right now to fly through AA anyways. Maybe they push him to AA to get advanced hitters to force him to improve his change up. That would sort of make sense given most low level hitters probably can't handle his fb/curve. All I'm saying is I'm very dubious he's in the majors that quickly and even if he is I can't see it being more than him pitching out of the bullpen. He's just not built up the stamina you need to throw 180 innings. Typically teams don't jump a guy from 40 innings to 150 in one year. If all goes right I'd expect him to throw around 100 innings next year then 150 the following building up to that 180-200 mark you want out of a starter.

The plan is for 120 innings. I have read that numerous places. This is why some speculate that he could fly up the rankings.

 

[CSF77]

The answer to the question of what the Cubs need to do with their pitching staff is a tough one. They really don't need a great pitching staff because of how good the team projects in 2017 (and beyond) to be defensively.

- Contreras is an elite defensive catcher
- Rizzo is an adequate defender at first
- Russell is a top 5 defensive SS
- Bryant is a top 5 defensive 3B
- Heyward is a gold glove OF
- Almora is a potential high value OF
- Baez is a utility defender capable of gold glove defense

When you have a great defensive team, you don't need to have some dynamic pitching staff, you just need to have guys who get contact and who do not walk guys. One of the more alarming things about Arrieta (and Ross) to an extent is their walk rates considering how good the defense is behind him.

If it was me, I'd try to lock up Ross to a three or four year deal, resign Arrieta to a five (but not six) year deal and if I don't get Arrieta, I look to sign a depth arm. I'd move Montgomery to the bullpen long term (I think he can be a super valuable reliever there as opposed to a middling starter) and I'd aim for the following rotation

2017
Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Lackey, Ross/Montgomery

2018
Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Ross, cheap arm/prospect

2019
Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Ross, Cease/de La Cruz

Guess the platinum glove is adequate.

 

[CSF77]

Maybe. I'm just not sure he's advanced enough right now to fly through AA anyways. Maybe they push him to AA to get advanced hitters to force him to improve his change up. That would sort of make sense given most low level hitters probably can't handle his fb/curve. All I'm saying is I'm very dubious he's in the majors that quickly and even if he is I can't see it being more than him pitching out of the bullpen. He's just not built up the stamina you need to throw 180 innings. Typically teams don't jump a guy from 40 innings to 150 in one year. If all goes right I'd expect him to throw around 100 innings next year then 150 the following building up to that 180-200 mark you want out of a starter.

I don't see them rushing him. If they have to rush him to make everything work then there is a flaw in the design.

 

[CSF77]

Everything I've read suggests that Cease will start at Myrtle Beach. When asked about Jed Hoyer hasn't confirmed that but has suggested that it's very possible. Of course you never know with these things.

I'm expecting SB. If he dominates the Comp then they increase the challenge.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I posted this earlier on how 2018 is the year when the pitching wave starts to occur.

https://sportsstatsandscience.wordpress.com/2016/11/09/2018-the-year-of-the-pitching-wave/

 

[chibears55]

I posted this earlier on how 2018 is the year when the pitching wave starts to occur.

https://sportsstatsandscience.wordpress.com/2016/11/09/2018-the-year-of-the-pitching-wave/

It all depends on how they develop though..

Good to see a handful of possibilities for 2018
But if the Cubs are expecting to continue to push for division titles and compete for WS in 2018 after losing Lackey and possibly Arrieta.
Then their gonna need more then just an aging Lester, Hendricks and 2 to 3 BOR type pitchers , with 2 possibly being rookies.

Be tough to waste a season of strong young offense, developing and getting experience for 2 rookie starters if their not studs right away.
Plus it puts a lot of pressure on Lester and Hendricks to carry them til If/When the young starters get going.

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[SilenceS]

It all depends on how they develop though..

Good to see a handful of possibilities for 2018
But if the Cubs are expecting to continue to push for division titles and compete for WS in 2018 after losing Lackey and possibly Arrieta.
Then their gonna need more then just an aging Lester, Hendricks and 2 to 3 BOR type pitchers , with 2 possibly being rookies.

Be tough to waste a season of strong young offense, developing and getting experience for 2 rookie starters if their not studs right away.
Plus it puts a lot of pressure on Lester and Hendricks to carry them til If/When the young starters get going.

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Trust me, they are thinking about things none of us are thinking about.

Also, dont worry about an aging Lester. His success has nothing to do with stuff. He is a plotter. A lot of people believe he will stay strong through his whole contract over Scherzer. One relies on his velocity. One relies on command and competing. He isnt the type of pitcher to fall off the map.

Also, Bosio has legit turned guys careers around. I would think we will find a diamond in the rough again.

 

[CSF77]

It would be a disaster to have more than one unknown factor per year in the rotation.

This is kinda why I believe they need to keep Montgomery as a starter. If they get Ross and push Montgomery back a year then he becomes another unknown factor in 2018.

2018 depends on Underwood and Clifton pushing through to Iowa in 2017. That is really a slim chance of happening. I see it as Underwood splitting the year at both and getting a late season call up as the best scenario. Clifton stays at Tenn all year.

So in reality. If they sign Ross. Montgomery loses a year of development as a starter. That puts the 4-5 into a unknown factor in 2018. Not really a winning strategy

If they sign Ross you almost hope that you see some DL time from Lackey so Montgomery gets his starts then they cut back on Ross's innings to net more starts from Mike. If you can get 20 starts each from those 3 it makes for a better transition to 2018.

 

[chibears55]

It would be a disaster to have more than one unknown factor per year in the rotation.

This is kinda why I believe they need to keep Montgomery as a starter. If they get Ross and push Montgomery back a year then he becomes another unknown factor in 2018.

2018 depends on Underwood and Clifton pushing through to Iowa in 2017. That is really a slim chance of happening. I see it as Underwood splitting the year at both and getting a late season call up as the best scenario. Clifton stays at Tenn all year.

So in reality. If they sign Ross. Montgomery loses a year of development as a starter. That puts the 4-5 into a unknown factor in 2018. Not really a winning strategy

If they sign Ross you almost hope that you see some DL time from Lackey so Montgomery gets his starts then they cut back on Ross's innings to net more starts from Mike. If you can get 20 starts each from those 3 it makes for a better transition to 2018.

A couple things here..

If they don't bring in another ready arm or two and Montgomery shits the bed in April into May, who replaces him?

They need to find that 6th/7th starter that could start season in Iowa..
Do they even have one now


And

Ross.. Is he even ready to go in April or would he be assigned to Iowa to get some starts in before being called up..

Didn't Padres non tender him cause they don't know if / when he'll be ready to go and they didn't want to take a chance on paying and him missing a good amount of games?



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[CSF77]

A couple things here..

If they don't bring in another ready arm or two and Montgomery shits the bed in April into May, who replaces him?

They need to find that 6th/7th starter that could start season in Iowa..
Do they even have one now


And

Ross.. Is he even ready to go in April or would he be assigned to Iowa to get some starts in before being called up..

Didn't Padres non tender him cause they don't know if / when he'll be ready to go and they didn't want to take a chance on paying and him missing a good amount of games?



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Word is Ross will be ready for S/T.

Montgomery is a unknown factor but it is far better him being the only factor going instead of delaying him a year then losing both Jake and John. Then having to cross your fingers Mike works out with another unknown factor. In view of this it could delay a start up of a Underwood just because they don't want 2 unknowns running at the same time.

Like I said if they can run Mike out there 20 starts then you are going to get a feel if he is a part of the long term equation or not. Him in the pen is not helping.

The way I feel is if they push him to the pen it should be for the right reason. That they feel he is a reliever and not a starter. Then he is not delayed. He is just in the role they want him in.

 

[chibears55]

Word is Ross will be ready for S/T.

Montgomery is a unknown factor but it is far better him being the only factor going instead of delaying him a year then losing both Jake and John. Then having to cross your fingers Mike works out with another unknown factor. In view of this it could delay a start up of a Underwood just because they don't want 2 unknowns running at the same time.

Like I said if they can run Mike out there 20 starts then you are going to get a feel if he is a part of the long term equation or not. Him in the pen is not helping.

The way I feel is if they push him to the pen it should be for the right reason. That they feel he is a reliever and not a starter. Then he is not delayed. He is just in the role they want him in.

Montgomery has 23 starts in last 2 years so its not like he coming in with no experience like a rookie would.
That said, if they can't find a better replacement then yea, give him all the starts as long as he playing well..

But

If they can sign Tyson Ross to a multi yr deal, then you solve a problem going forward in 2018 etc. with a capable starter when they lose Lackey and maybe Arrieta.


Montgomery can then be that 6th starter which I'm sure they will use a lot more this year to give Lackey(age) and Ross(injury)extended rest.
And give the top 3 an extra day here and there.


I understand what you're saying about Montgomery, I just think they need to add a guy either for Iowa to be the capable 6th starter or a guy like Ross to start and use Montgomery as the 6th starter.



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[TC in Mississippi]

You're probably not going to able to sign Ross to a multi year deal. I think the main reason he hasn't signed with the Cubs is that he's waiting for someone to offer a one year deal and then hit FA on time next year. My guess is that the Cubs and most other teams want to sign him for 2 years or more to mitigate any injury risk. If no team makes that 1 year offer he'll sign with a contender quickly and Chicago would have a lot of positives for him.

 

[CSF77]

You're probably not going to able to sign Ross to a multi year deal. I think the main reason he hasn't signed with the Cubs is that he's waiting for someone to offer a one year deal and then hit FA on time next year. My guess is that the Cubs and most other teams want to sign him for 2 years or more to mitigate any injury risk. If no team makes that 1 year offer he'll sign with a contender quickly and Chicago would have a lot of positives for him.

He should start in Apr. the issue is he will be rehabbing in season so his value should be depressed. We may see a 1 WAR season out of him. I would limit him to 150 innings myself. Early season give him days off as you get rain delays early. That way he should have around 12 starts by July. At that point you turn him lose for the 2nd half.

 

[CSF77]

Montgomery has 23 starts in last 2 years so its not like he coming in with no experience like a rookie would.
That said, if they can't find a better replacement then yea, give him all the starts as long as he playing well..

But

If they can sign Tyson Ross to a multi yr deal, then you solve a problem going forward in 2018 etc. with a capable starter when they lose Lackey and maybe Arrieta.


Montgomery can then be that 6th starter which I'm sure they will use a lot more this year to give Lackey(age) and Ross(injury)extended rest.
And give the top 3 an extra day here and there.


I understand what you're saying about Montgomery, I just think they need to add a guy either for Iowa to be the capable 6th starter or a guy like Ross to start and use Montgomery as the 6th starter.



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Williams should be that guy in Iowa that becomes your next line of depth.

I really don't get why they are making Rob Z start. He is a crossfire guy for the most part. Which means lefties do not get good looks off of him but this takes away from accuracy. Add to it it doesn't affect Righties the same.

It just seems smarter to make him into a LOOGY vs a starter. Basically he lacks fastball movement and his #2 pitch is a change. It just seems he needs to reinvent his delivery and square up more to be able to gain more command of locating his fastball first. Then you have to factor how it has little movement. And then he lacks either a quality hammer or slider.

All said this really feels like a waste of time making him start in Iowa.

 

[chibears55]

So the Cardinals are supposedly in on Brian Dozier which, if last year wasn't an outlier, could make them quite a bit better but I don't buy it. Supposedly the Twins are asking for Reyes which would make zero sense for St. Louis. Now I've also heard Kolten Wong and Aledmys Diaz for Dozier but I'm not sure that makes much more sense and I'm not sure either are the kind of player Minnesota is looking for. My gut tells me that this is more of the Twins trying to drive the price up on the Dodgers but who knows?

What does this have to do with Cubs pitching
?????

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[TC in Mississippi]

Wrong thread, sorry. Deleted.

 

[CSF77]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/212027662/cubs-could-add-to-rotation-this-offseason/