Cubs selling early

[Boobaby1]

Cubs Ready To Sell


By Steve Adams [June 21 at 10:05am CST]

We're just under six weeks away from the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. At this point, many teams are still attempting to determine whether or not they're buyers or sellers, and the addition of a second Wild Card in each league has made that a longer process than it was in the past. However, ESPN's Buster Olney has spoken to rival evaluators who have said that the Cubs are "open for business" and ready to sell (ESPN Insider required and recommended).

The Cubs are 13 games below .500 and 17 games out of first place in the National League Central as of this morning, so their stance is a clear one. Nate Schierholtz, Kevin Gregg, Scott Feldman, David DeJesus (when healthy), Alfonso Soriano, James Russell and Matt Garza are the names that figure to be on the trading block as the Cubs field calls, writes Olney. His piece also includes much more info on potential matches for the Cubs and which divisions may be the first to become active on the trade front.

My take on the Cubs' situation: Being the first team to sell pieces has its advantages and disadvantages. Obviously, the Cubs will have more teams to work with at this juncture. Early in the trading season, with so few teams ready to declare themselves sellers, buyers will have few other places to turn. Trading for a player like Garza or Feldman right now would give the acquiring team an extra few starts from the pitcher they're trading precious prospects for. Acquiring a position player in late June as opposed to late July could mean an extra 20 to 30 games out of that player.

On the flipside of the coin, teams may not be as desperate right now as they would be in the final hours leading up to the deadline. Oftentimes, big deals go down with just hours or minutes to go before the trade deadline, as teams have decided that one final push is worth the risk. Recent examples of July 31 blockbusters include both Hunter Pence trades, the Ubaldo Jimenez trade and the White Sox's acquisition of Jake Peavy. Each of these deals included high-profile prospects being exchanged for star-caliber players, though obviously not all of them worked out.

Injuries can also occur in the next month that would make buyers out of teams who are currently not looking. Conversely, one of the Cubs' trade chips could incur an injury, which would leave president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer one less piece to work with.

Selling pieces early takes away some of the "desperation" leverage from the Cubs, but it also will likely increase their number of suitors, creating more competition for their players. Epstein and Hoyer will have to determine how to walk that line over the next several weeks as they look to build toward the future.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/cubs-ready-to-sell.html

 

[kchicub08]

Nobody listed above with the possible exception of Garza will bring anything of real value....

Schierholtz is not a full time player.

 

[dabynsky]

I've been in the extension camp for Garza for a while because I doubt we get much value for a rental of pitcher with a 4.98 ERA in six starts after taking nearly a year off of pitching. I think the deadline is going to be in players of a similar caliber as last year because they aren't particularly valuable pieces due to production or contract situation.

 

[Boobaby1]

I've been in the extension camp for Garza for a while because I doubt we get much value for a rental of pitcher with a 4.98 ERA in six starts after taking nearly a year off of pitching. I think the deadline is going to be in players of a similar caliber as last year because they aren't particularly valuable pieces due to production or contract situation.

I was with Garza, but am no longer. In fact, I think the Cubs should trade everything including the core pieces. See what they can get for Rizzo, Shark, and Castro too. Does it really matter anyway? Blow the whole damn thing up again and see what it gets.

Surely the Cubs could find equal replacements if not better if they put these guys out for trade if you really think about it, and their current contract status makes them that much more appealing.

For example only, what would it take to get Adam Jones of Baltimore? If they started off with Shark and Castro, what else might it take to get the Cubs a proven power hitting centerfielder? A prospect or two?

Everyone should be expendable.

 

[SilenceS]

It would be counter productive. Unless you have a guy who is better and you can upgrade another premium position. Whats the point? You trade Shark. The team really goes back at least another couple of years. You would have no bonafide front of the rotation starter. Castro and Rizzo wold be selling low and with their salaries no need to dump them. They arent untradeable, but it would take a truly great package or player back.

 

[Boobaby1]

It would be counter productive. Unless you have a guy who is better and you can upgrade another premium position. Whats the point? You trade Shark. The team really goes back at least another couple of years. You would have no bonafide front of the rotation starter. Castro and Rizzo wold be selling low and with their salaries no need to dump them. They arent untradeable, but it would take a truly great package or player back.

That is the point. You may take a hit in one department, but solidify another position. It isn't as if any of the core players are truly great. Right? Therefore, how does it set the franchise back a couple of years?

I also said as an example.

 

[CSF77]

I was with Garza, but am no longer. In fact, I think the Cubs should trade everything including the core pieces. See what they can get for Rizzo, Shark, and Castro too. Does it really matter anyway? Blow the whole damn thing up again and see what it gets.

Surely the Cubs could find equal replacements if not better if they put these guys out for trade if you really think about it, and their current contract status makes them that much more appealing.

For example only, what would it take to get Adam Jones of Baltimore? If they started off with Shark and Castro, what else might it take to get the Cubs a proven power hitting centerfielder? A prospect or two?

Everyone should be expendable.

This year I would hold onto Castro. He is at low sale value. Next year the talent gap is closed in farm depth. This year would be stupid. No quality replacement and low sale value.

Rizzo we need to let him prove or disprove him being a legit talent. Too early and it is stupid to sell in a sophomore slump. They did that with Colvin and ended up on the short end of the stick.

Sori: He is over the hill and no one would want him.

Garza would get a good return. He is looking pretty decent right now. As is Feldman.

Dejesus needs to be sold. End of story.

I'd keep Gregg to be honest. I get the sell high but I'd extend as he is going to be a cheap fix closer even going forward.

 

[CSF77]

Also Balt is not going to sell in the middle of a play off run. They would just add with farm pieces. They would be a trade partner for SP. They need that.

Look at their farm and see matches for either Feldman or Garza. That is what to expect in trades. Not getting All star starters in return for our starters. That stuff never happens.

 

[chibears55]

their not going to trade their core pieces because that the point of what they been doing the last 2 years, and all their going to get back are low end minor leaguers, so then your looking at your core pieced being soler, baez, bryant, etc whom wont be full time until 2015 and will have question marks on them until they prove they can be major league players.

castro and rizzo yes their having a bad season but they have shown they have the talent and potential to be real good players. there has been a lot of good ball players that slumped early in their careers and ended up turning it around. the cubs have to wait it out and see if these two can do that, especially with their age and stage of their career.

I can see players like navarro, ransom, valbuena, borbon, hairston, schierholtz, sweeney, and dejesus being discussed by teams looking to add depth and bench help from veteran bats for low end minor leaguers in return.

they were able to trade brent lillibridge yesterday to the yankees for a PTBNL, so these guys should get them something in return

as far as pitchers go... feldman and villanueva could be moved, i think garza goes because were almost in July and havent heard anything about extension talks and i doubt they hold him to take the draft pick if he doesnt extend over adding prospects.

I think they hold onto gregg unless they get an offer they cant refuse, also wouldnt surprise me if they extended another year.

i think if they cant move marmol at deadline, he will be released shortly after if he continues to struggle in his new role.

 

[KBisBack!]

Garza and Shark should be considered the most valuable and highest priority core pieces the team has at the major league level.

Castro has shown in the past he has the ability to be an above average player. What ever adjustments that are being forced on him are not working and should be stopped. He is pretty much useless right now. Tied for the major league lead in errors for his position and Darwin Barney now has a higher slugging percentage than Castro this year.

Rizzo has shown small, brief flashes of above average potential which are usually followed by extended periods of sub par performance as he had been showing until his home fun yesterday which was his first home run in 29 games and only his second game of June that he drove in a run. Overall his production for the Chicago Cubs has been average at best.

Yes there are a few players who have had slow starts to their careers that ended up being above average players. There are a lot more who didn't. For every player you can name that started slow and ended up being an above average to All Star type player, I can probably name 25 who didn't.

I am with those that say that there is not one untouchable player on this team.

As for the farm, the Cubs will probably be lucky if it produces even one above average player by the year 2015.

 

[CSF77]

On Garza I'd push to the offseason and offer him Arb. If he refuses then take the pick. There is a lot not being said regarding that situation and why a deal has not been signed at this point. Comes down to does he want to be a Cub or not.

 

[CSF77]

Nate Schierholtz is Worth Going After
by Dave Cameron - June 21, 2013

According to Buster Olney, the Chicago Cubs are open for business. They’re a rebuilding franchise with no real playoff aspirations and a bunch of interesting veterans who are free agent eligible at the end of the year, so it makes sense for them to make some present-for-future trades. The focus is likely going to be on their pitching, as Matt Garza and Scott Feldman will be two of the more common names you’ll hear talked about over the next month or so. However, there’s another Cub for sale that might be one of the more interesting players on the market: Nate Schierholtz.

Schierholtz has long been a bit of a favorite of mine, as he specializes in the skillset that I think is most often overlooked at the big league level. He’s basically a tweener, a guy with good corner outfield defense who probably can’t handle center field but doesn’t have the kind of power teams have historically associated with RF and LF. He’s been around for a while, and now 29-years-old, he has only hit 33 home runs in nearly 1,600 plate appearances, and he has a career slugging percentage of .426. That kind of moderate power profile generally gets overlooked when teams are looking for corner outfielders, even if the rest of the skillset makes the overall package pretty useful.

The Cubs took advantage of this market inefficiency over the winter, signing Schierholtz to a one year, $2.25 million deal after he was non-tendered by the Phillies. $2 million for a league average hitter who can play solid defense in both outfield corners made Schierholtz a nice bargain, and he’s paid off in a big way. For the first time in his career, Schierholtz is hitting for power, as 29 of his 55 hits have gone for extra bases and he has a .257 ISO. He hasn’t had to trade contact to get that power either, as his K% is just 13.9%, the lowest mark he’s posted since 2008 (and in a year that only included 81 PAs).

200 plate appearances isn’t anywhere near enough to say that this is “real” and that he’s going to keep posting a 136 wRC+, but both ZIPS and Steamer forecast him to remain roughly an average hitter going forward. He’s not any kind of star, but there’s real value in a league average hitter who plays pretty decent defense, and unlike most other players traded in the next month, Schierholtz won’t be a rental.

While he only signed a one year deal with the Cubs, he’s going to fall shy of the six years of service time needed to qualify as a free agent, so any team acquiring Schierholtz from Chicago will control his rights through next year as well. Certainly, his strong performance this year will earn him a raise in arbitration, but his modest career numbers and the fact that he’s been strictly platooned will keep his earnings down, as he won’t have gaudy counting stats and won’t be able to argue that he’s comparable to everyday players. At best, Schierholtz is probably looking at $5 or $6 million in arbitration, and he could very well come in under that.

And, despite the fact that the Cubs have used him solely against RHPs, it’s not entirely clear that Schierholtz couldn’t handle a larger workload. While 80% of his career plate appearances have come against RHPs, his splits actually aren’t that large.

Vs RHP: 1,284 PA, .271/.328/.438, .327 wOBA, 104 wRC+
Vs LHP: 313 PA, .278/.315/.378, .303 wOBA, 86 wRC+

Schierholtz has a platoon split, but it’s not drastically larger than every other left-handed batter, and we’re dealing with just 300 plate appearances against LHPs. He’s generally not used against them because it’s not very hard to find an RHB who can give you a bit more offense against lefties, but Schierholtz isn’t the kind of guy that you absolutely have to pinch-hit for any time a lefty reliever comes in to the game. He’s best used as a part-time player, but he wouldn’t fall apart if given more at-bats against LHPs.

Schierholtz is probably something in the range of +1.5 to +2.5 WAR player over a full season, he’s going to make roughly $1 million over the rest of the season and then ~$5 million or so next year, assuming he keeps hitting well. Any team acquiring him is looking at picking up roughly +3 WAR for $6 million in salary, which is a pretty nice little bargain, even for a guy who is more role player than savior.

And you know, sometimes these role players play like saviors for a little while. Schierholtz isn’t that different from Cody Ross — other than hitting from the other side of the plate — and we all remember what Ross did for the Giants after being claimed on waivers back in 2010. The randomness of small sample postseason baseball means that sometimes bit parts can look like superstars, and Schierholtz could end up making a larger impact than anyone expects.

While Olney mentioned the Royals and Pirates as perfect fits, given their right field problems, Schierholtz makes sense for a bunch of teams, including those not necessarily in the running for a playoff spot in 2013. Finding three good outfielders isn’t easy, and most teams will have an opening on their 2014 roster for a solid average player under team control at a minimal cost. Schierholtz won’t be the sexiest trade deadline acquisition, but he’s the kind of guy that can make more of a difference than his name value would suggest.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nate-schierholtz-is-worth-going-after/

 

[chibears55]

CFS.. you'd rather take a draft pick over any trade offer they may get for Garza?
Im guessing if we dont hear anything in regards to extension talks by July, their going to take the best offer over a draft pick.
They can always make a FA offer for garza to return in off season and really make out on top in the end, getting prospects and the player back.

 

[85Bears4life]

[URLhttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/rockies-acquire-hisanori-takahashi.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

The Rockies have acquired left-hander Hisanori Takahashi from the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later

 

[mountsalami]

CFS.. you'd rather take a draft pick over any trade offer they may get for Garza?
Im guessing if we dont hear anything in regards to extension talks by July, their going to take the best offer over a draft pick.
They can always make a FA offer for garza to return in off season and really make out on top in the end, getting prospects and the player back.

Do you suppose that there wouldn't be a bidding war over Garza's services when he becomes a free agent ? I have a hard time believing, with the historical data that's out there, that many players are re-signed in the offseason after they have been traded the year before by the same team.

My opinion is that if they don't re-sign him now, he'll cost much more later, if they want him and he's healthy. More than likely the great prospect that's received for Garza isn't going to be worth it's weight overall.

To keep Edwin Jackson on the team at the payroll cost and not Garza would be beyond idiotic. But that has seemed to be the trend of these geniuses.

 

[patg006]

CFS.. you'd rather take a draft pick over any trade offer they may get for Garza?
Im guessing if we dont hear anything in regards to extension talks by July, their going to take the best offer over a draft pick.
They can always make a FA offer for garza to return in off season and really make out on top in the end, getting prospects and the player back.

I'd rather him get a John Danks-like deal and sign it, and avoid all this unnecessary mess and speculation. Odds are this is the point they can get him on the cheap. I honestly believe they can sign him for under 100 million right now.

He makes it to FA; somebody will overpay for him.....and the cubs will be short a damn good pitcher next year......which means Pierce Johnson or Bobby Z (what I'm going to cal Rob Zastrysyzyny or whatever his fucking last name is....) better be ready to go....

 

[CSF77]

Ya I would push it out as long as I could until I could get him to extend. Looking at a pick in the 30's is not a bad thing either as compensation. Pierce Johnson so far has been pretty damn good for a comp pick. Over all I would want to retain. Selling now just looking at it in terms of return value is short sighted. Cubs are better with Garza then with out over the next 5-6 years.

 

[KBisBack!]

Do you suppose that there wouldn't be a bidding war over Garza's services when he becomes a free agent ? I have a hard time believing, with the historical data that's out there, that many players are re-signed in the offseason after they have been traded the year before by the same team.

People always bring up the ridiculous notion of trading a player during the season, getting prospects for the player and then resigning him the next offseason.

I can't think off the top of my head that this has ever happened to a player that is anywhere near an impact player.

Someone will probably be able to come up with one or two times it has happened, but I can come up with thousands where it didn't happen.

Garza should be extended if possible, if he has no interest in resigning then you get what you can for him, but if he doesn't want to resign in the first place there is no chance to resign him during the offseason when he is a free agent.

 

[patg006]

People always bring up the ridiculous notion of trading a player during the season, getting prospects for the player and then resigning him the next offseason.

I can't think off the top of my head that this has ever happened to a player that is anywhere near an impact player.

Someone will probably be able to come up with one or two times it has happened, but I can come up with thousands where it didn't happen.

MLB2k?

But this is pretty much true. Ryan Dempster was close this past offseason to returning to the cubs, but it didnt happen. Thinking this could happen is ludicrous.

Garza has stated openly and frequently that he does not want to leave Chicago and wants to resign with the Cubs....

 

[Boobaby1]

MLB2k?

But this is pretty much true. Ryan Dempster was close this past offseason to returning to the cubs, but it didnt happen. Thinking this could happen is ludicrous.

Garza has stated openly and frequently that he does not want to leave Chicago and wants to resign with the Cubs....

Like I said, I have changed tunes with Garza. Now, my reasoning is that I have yet to see the Cubs brass put forth any substantial effort at the parent level, and I don't feel they will do it anytime soon either. With that said, if Garza and Shark are extended, how many years into their contracts will the Cubs be if and when they are competitive?

In all reality, the whole basis is still banking on the farm producing the talent, and the Cubs are not much better than they have been the past few years if at all. Sure the farm might be getting closer, but there is still a 25 man team in Chicago that is not doing well and has grand-canyonesque holes to still fill.

We will know shortly just how many of those holes will needed to be filled, and if they start losing guys like Russell, Garza, and others, that list is going to multiply big time. When the patchwork purchases stop happening, that's when I will start thinking about extensions.