I was going to start a thread last night basically suggesting I'm not that convinced the cubs even try to sign a top tier SP in FA this offseason but I sorta fizzled out half way thru it and went to bed. The short version is the cubs will probably have around $130 mil in payroll if you assume a bump in tv money. They have around $80 mil committed. I assume they will have around $15 mil in arbitration excluding Arrieta who I imagine they will try to sign long term. He's likely to get between $10-15 mil in arb anyways so that only leaves around $20 mil in money left over and you still have to figure out what to do in CF with Fowler. I imagine top tier starters will go for around $26.5 mil/season.
So, unless ownership pulls the "we have the money when we need it" card it seems unlikely a top starter fits in the budget. Plus there's the matter of what they tried to do at the deadline by trading for cost controlled arms. And then you also likely have to factor in where you play Pierce Johnson and Edwards. Johnson has been fantastic in AA. He might need some more innings in the AFL after missing some time but you can easily see him starting in AAA next season and getting a midseason call up if things go well. Edwards is probably going to work out the bullpen given how they've approached him this season but they might work him in as a starter over the next couple years.
As such, to me I imagine they will either try to continue the cost controlled trade approach or they will go after more of the mid-tier starter market and get someone more in the 3-4 year range. And honestly, I'm not sure that's a bad thing. The cubs are 5th in starter ERA this year and that's with having a revolving door as their 5th.
$82.010 covers 7 players. Arb cases: Wood (cut), Wada (cut), Arrieta (extend), Strop (pay him), Coghlan (pay him), Turner (cut), Herrera (cut), Rondon (pay him), Grimm (pay him).
League min guys: Ramirez, Schwarber, Russell, Bryant, LaStella, Hendricks, Alcantara, Baez, Edwards, Rosscup.
In reality they have plenty of farm depth going on right now to cut some payroll here and there. I'm thinking they pay Arrieta 10 mil next year,m Coghlan 3 mil and Rondon makes 3 mil in arb. Grimm gets 2 and Strop 2.7 mil. 21 mil here.
9 guys they can put on the roster that add up to aprox 4.5 mil.
That puts payroll at 107.5 mil. with 21 roster spots filled.
Now that leaves CF open. I would like them give it to Alcantara or trade for one that has low cost. Baez would be fun if he went back to his H.S. position. I'm pretty open to Castro at 2B and Baez in CF to be honest with Coghland, LaStella and Alcantara on the bench. Makes the bench versatile.
Now on a model for Price's contract:
Max Scherzer rhp
7 years/$210M (2015-21)
signed by Washington as a free agent 1/21/15
$50M signing bonus:
$5M in 2015 and $15M each in 2019, 2020, 2021
payments in equal semiannual installments, April-September
salaries: 15:$10M, 16-18:$15M annually. 19-21:$35M annually
2019-21 salaries ($105M) deferred without interest, to be paid in seven $15M installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2028
105 mil.
So he is getting paid until 2028. For the first 4 years he will be making 55 mil. next 3 105 mil. At that point his time is up. But the Nats will still be paying him for the next 7 years after the deal is over at 15 mil per. Or basically what a quality #4 starter makes. If you have a deep farm filled with pitching depth that blow is lessened.
Now the Cubs are getting cost savings from the farm so something like this is something to mil over. I would front load it more.
If you look at the Schzer deal it is in reality 305 mil that he will make off of the Nats over the term of the deal. Including deferred and bonus cash. So that is where we are at on it.
