Darlington: Robinson Tag Could Get Ugly

[Montucky]

I also worry that Odell Beckham or Michael Thomas become available and teams get infatuated with the possibilities there.

 

[bamainatlanta]

At this point if I can sign and trade him for a 3rd or more this year then I do it. Would much rather do that now than wait for a comp pick next year.

This. I would hope Pace would use him to move up to try to get a QB but not looking likely now.

 

[bamainatlanta]

The market this year does not favor the Bears. A lot of talent in FA at WR and another loaded WR class as well.

 

[circusboy666]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364412338636529667

 

[modo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364412338636529667

every random tweet is proof

 

[vabearsfan15]

I'm honestly surprised there hasn't been more reports about what the other side is asking. It makes me believe Arob is likely asking too much to stay and would prefer testing out free agency.

I say just wait it out. We have the leverage. I think there are some decent options available in free agency, but I don't think they will command top dollar. Last year was a good draft class for WR and so is this year.

There is no need to rush. Let the teams in need of wide receiver fill their vacancies and limit the demand for Arob. You see what types of contracts are given out, which I dont suspect to be high dollar, and see if Arob comes to his senses about what his value is.

 

[mattb78]

I have to put this one on Robinson. He was offered a deal very early and he knew that he could be tagged if he didn't sign it.

I mean the agents' explain this process to the players, a deal the players union agreed on, and then they get upset when it happens.

Play your one year tag deal and then go to free agency. Everybody knows how it works. Bitching like a child doesn't get you anywhere.

 

[dennehy]

I hadn't know they extended Boyd. Take them off the list then.

He gets to be worth the draft pick when teams consider the alternatives and weigh the cost to settling on an inferior player. Especially when those players come with the risk-factors Will Fuller V and Smith-Schuster have that present very realistic scenarios where teams get zero value out of them. Robinson II represents probably the lowest amount of uncertainty of any available wide receiver, even less than Godwin. That's kind of why I don't see the Jets as this natural trading partner unless they pivot to win-now mode with a Watson trade, they are much more willing to see if they can fix Smith-Schuster or get Fuller V to stay healthy since the impetus on a winning 2021 season is pretty low. And if they do get Watson they'll probably be unwilling to part with what little draft capital they have remaining to acquire Robinson II.

Jacksonville is also a poor trading partner for this reason. They are all about developing Lawrence not winning football games in 2021.

Bears need two teams that are risk-averse heading into a 2021 season where they need to make the most out of a competitive window. Teams where heads probably roll if there isn't success. Right now it feels like the two best contestants for that are Miami and Baltimore. The Giants could be a possibility too.

If JAX or NYJ signs Robinson it would be to have a really good vet to help out with their rookie QB and basically have the same window (4 or 5 year deal), not to win now. I think especially with NYJ that would be valuable. Say Fields or Wilson and all you've got is Mims (promising but has played like 6 games) and a rookie. JAX has Shenault and Chark, who are both good looking young players so that might not make as much sense.

I agree that Miami makes a lot of sense.

 

[Montucky]

What makes most sense to me is a straight up swap of Orlando Brown Jr. and Allen Robinson II. Nobody loses a pick, the contract consideration wash themselves out as both players are going to need to be paid eventually and the Bears solve by far their biggest positional need while Baltimore solves theirs while keeping their first and second round picks. The players even get what they want, Brown Jr. gets to play and get paid like a left tackle and Robinson II gets all the love from the Ravens who have been in desperate need of a player exactly like him for years.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Who brought Robinson II to the Bears to begin with? I'll hang up and wait for my answer.

What does one have to do with the other?

 

[Pegger]

This is a different era of the NFL. Weather it's NFL players following the NBA's lead and/or the players having a larger voice through social media the franchise tag isn't what it used to be.

Think about it. Last year Jalen Ramsey and Yannick Ngakoue and Jamal Adams all forced their respective teams to trade them. This year we are seeing it with QBs being Stafford and Wentz (Stafford appears to be mutual, but they also had little leverage).

Personally I think the franchise tag changed after Kirk Cousins. That was an example where the player was forced to bet on themselves and the team ended up losing. Before that the tag was team leverage, now we have an example of how it can work for the player.

Anyway, if Robinson wants out the Bears should let him walk and target the next best player. Him leaving would create a large void, but it's would also be an opportunity for Mooney, Miller, Kmet, rookie and/or FA to fill.

 

[bamainatlanta]

What makes most sense to me is a straight up swap of Orlando Brown Jr. and Allen Robinson II. Nobody loses a pick, the contract consideration wash themselves out as both players are going to need to be paid eventually and the Bears solve by far their biggest positional need while Baltimore solves theirs while keeping their first and second round picks. The players even get what they want, Brown Jr. gets to play and get paid like a left tackle and Robinson II gets all the love from the Ravens who have been in desperate need of a player exactly like him for years.

Baltimore has a cap problem. Although they could use him.

 

[Pegger]

What makes most sense to me is a straight up swap of Orlando Brown Jr. and Allen Robinson II. Nobody loses a pick, the contract consideration wash themselves out as both players are going to need to be paid eventually and the Bears solve by far their biggest positional need while Baltimore solves theirs while keeping their first and second round picks. The players even get what they want, Brown Jr. gets to play and get paid like a left tackle and Robinson II gets all the love from the Ravens who have been in desperate need of a player exactly like him for years.

The Ravens and Bears are in very different cap situations.

Ravens - 56 players under contract and estimated cap space is $29.9M
Bears - 47 players under contract and estimated cap space is -$1.8M

Most notable item is the Ravens have their QB where the Bears are still looking for that piece.

What I'm getting at is I'm not sure they can franchise Robinson. If they do some restructuring, sign a vet QB and then add in the rookie pool of contracts there isn't franchise tag WR or T money left.

 

[Pegger]

Baltimore has a cap problem. Although they could use him.

Here's their cap situation. In terms of cap space and number of players under contract there's no problem there.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Here's their cap situation. In terms of cap space and number of players under contract there's no problem there.

Depends on who they want to keep. Defense is losing a lot of players. Its not as good as it seems.

Baltimore Ravens
Biggest Need: Wide receiver

It's possible that the promising but inconsistent Marquise Brown is already the best wideout Baltimore has ever drafted, a damning statement about the team's history of development in that department. Brown was the 55th-ranked wide receiver by DYAR in 2020, in case a statistical bulwark was required for backing what everyone saw with their eyes. Clearly, the Ravens need reinforcements at the position, preferably a true No. 1 type player whom Lamar Jackson can target both in and out of structure.

Unfortunately, the likes of free agents Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay won't come cheap, and the Ravens don't have a great deal of cap flexibility—some serious can-kicking and manipulation would be needed to sign a top-tier wideout. A more possible scenario might be someone like Marvin Jones, who remains reliable if a shade or two below elite. Even he might be a stretch to acquire, however. The team will almost certainly draft a wideout early, regardless of free agency. The 27th pick in the first round is a bit rich for the top-heavy receiver corps available in April, but at No. 58 someone along the lines of Nico Collins of Michigan, Minnesota's Rashod Bateman, or LSU's Terrace Marshall should be in play. Baltimore doubled up in the slot in last year's draft; don't be surprised if they pick yet another receiver—a perimeter threat—on Day 3 this time around.

Major Free Agents: Matt Judon, OLB; Yannick Ngakoue, DE; Derek Wolfe, DE; Tyus Bowser, OLB, Pernell McPhee, OLB; Willie Snead, WR

After playing on the franchise tag in 2020, Matthew Judon will be off in search of a big deal. There is a small chance he gets franchised a second time, though his six sacks and 25 pressures don't really justify that kind of money. The Ravens may be desperate enough, however, given they only have a single pass-rusher under contract at the moment (Jaylon Ferguson). Yannick Ngakoue was asked to come in and provide an immediate jolt, which he didn't accomplish. A player of his voltage remains a need for the Ravens, who were an OK but hardly dominant 13th in adjusted sack rate; toss out one seven-sack game against the Bengals' struggling offensive line and Baltimore had 32 sacks in 15 games. Ngakoue should have plenty of suitors, however, including teams for whom he seems a better scheme fit. The same is true of Derek Wolfe, Tyus Bowser, and Pernell McPhee—Baltimore can't afford to lose the entirety of its pass-rush depth, but none of the three will be an automatic re-sign either. The team's best bet might be a discarded cap casualty from another team, one who won't ask for top dollars to play in purple. As for Willie Snead, see above—the Ravens need all the quality pass-catchers they can get, and Snead qualifies. His sample size was small (48 targets) but his efficiency (9.9% DVOA) was the equivalent of Tyler Lockett's. But with the all the young receivers who need development, and the likelihood of reinforcements, Snead will probably be squeezed out.

Four Downs: AFC North

Offense is the order of the day here, as the Ravens need wide receivers and the Bengals and Steelers both need offensive linemen. The Browns, on the other hand, could use a boost to their defensive front.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[Montucky]

The Ravens and Bears are in very different cap situations.

Ravens - 56 players under contract and estimated cap space is $29.9M
Bears - 47 players under contract and estimated cap space is -$1.8M

Most notable item is the Ravens have their QB where the Bears are still looking for that piece.

What I'm getting at is I'm not sure they can franchise Robinson. If they do some restructuring, sign a vet QB and then add in the rookie pool of contracts there isn't franchise tag WR or T money left.

The Ravens have the looming spectre of paying Lamar Jackson, who currently takes up just under two percent of their cap. Looking around the league at MVP and MVP caliber quarterbacks he's soon going to be taking up somewhere between fifteen and twenty percent of their cap. So long-term they are up against it even if it doesn't look like it now. They have already made Ronnie Stanley the highest paid offensive lineman in the league, they can't afford to pay Orlando Brown Jr. like a left tackle and also afford Lamar Jackson.

It makes sense for the Ravens to pack on payroll in the near-term while shedding long-term responsibilities. Brown Jr. is likely going to cost more than Allen Robinson II, since he's younger and quality left tackles are both scarcer and more important than quality wide receivers.

Opposite is true for the Bears; and Orlando Brown Jr. has one more year of his rookie deal, so whatever cap consequences of extending him won't be felt until next off-season when things will be looking much rosier for the Bears with regards to the cap.

 

[dennehy]

I'd expect Baltimore to sign a second tier FA WR and then draft another in the first or second.

 

[rawdawg]

Robinson has actually handled this well. He has made it known he doesn't want to be tagged, but hasn't threatened a hold out or anything. He's actually made a point not to burn any bridges with the Bears. I'd personally pay him the money. I'd be fine with tagging him, letting him play on the tag for a year and then letting him walk after the year. But if I got a good sense that he wouldn't not play on the tag at all, I'd much rather pay him what he wants than let him walk if I am the Bears.

4 years, 85Mil. 5 years, 101Mil if the 100M number is signficant to him. You probably only have to guarantee 3 years of that, which still only puts him at 30. It really doesn't matter if you think he's worth it. It's about the cost/production ratio. Robinson should be productive enough to justify the money, especially on an offense where there's possibly only 1 other big money player for the foreseeable future (Whitehair, can cut Leno whenever you want basically).

If you're Pace and you're trying to keep a job, you have to keep Robinson. If you add a veteran QB, he needs Robinson to perform and potentially save everyone's jobs. If you add a rookie QB, he needs Robinson to develop, which could potentially save everyone's jobs.

 

[Montucky]

I'd expect Baltimore to sign a second tier FA WR and then draft another in the first or second.

One full measure is usually better than two half measures. Baltimore picks late in the first, outside the realm where drafting for need is good draft strategy. It really all depends on a lot of things we cannot know right now. And like I said, if one team wants Robinson II that doesn't get the Bears anywhere. The Bears need a bidding war since it's becoming increasingly obvious that the Bears won't extend Robinson II long-term and that he has no intentions at all of playing on the franchise tag.

 

[WindyCity]

What makes most sense to me is a straight up swap of Orlando Brown Jr. and Allen Robinson II. Nobody loses a pick, the contract consideration wash themselves out as both players are going to need to be paid eventually and the Bears solve by far their biggest positional need while Baltimore solves theirs while keeping their first and second round picks. The players even get what they want, Brown Jr. gets to play and get paid like a left tackle and Robinson II gets all the love from the Ravens who have been in desperate need of a player exactly like him for years.

The reason the Ravens are talking of trading Brown is that they cannot afford a 20 million dollar contract for anyone not named Lamar.