Dear Fred...please read...

[Fred]

wjb1492 wrote:

Shakes wrote:

Joke all your like, but the one area we're dominating the Celtics on is bench production. I think that's the context of why they want to stop Kirk, they realise if our bench gives us the crap their bench is giving them, then the edge they have over our starters means they'll win for sure.

Basically they're saying they don't need to change what they're doing on Gordon/Rose/Snipes, because they're confident Rondo/Peirce/Allen can match them. They know the way House or Marbury are playing they're not going to match Hinrich.

I think that's it exactly. Of all the matchups, Kirk is the one Chicago guy majorly outproducing his Boston counterpart. And, as we've all commented on ad nauseum all season, it's one thing to get beaten by the other team's elite starters and quite another thing to get lit up by the opponent's 4th or 5th option. It shouldn't be taken as an insult to other players on the Bulls or as Perkins claiming Kirk is the Bulls' best player. But in this series, especially at this point, Derrick has been shooting himself in the foot with the TOs and Ben and John are hobbled with injuries.

Another point in support of this is PER for the playoffs so far - which, with such a small sample size, is not reliably predictive of anyone's long-term ability but is reflective of the level they are playing at in the immediate short-term present. And for the Bulls (PER from basketballreference.com:

Player / Playoff PER / PER Differential(regular to postseason)

Joakim --- 17.8 ---------- +1.3
Kirk ----- 17.0 ---------- +3.1
Ben ------ 16.9 ---------- -0.1
Tyrus ---- 14.6 ---------- -1.3
Derrick -- 14.1 ---------- -1.9
John ----- 11.6 ---------- -4.4
Brad ----- 7.8 --------- -10.8

On top of that, most people have acknowledged that Kirk is playing very good defense in the playoffs. So in the context of this series, I'd say there's a very good argument that Perkins is exactly right - while Derrick and Ben have both had very good games, overall Kirk and Joakim are the guys who have really stepped up their regular season production for the playoffs.

Does the PER take into account if a player is double teamed or not? Ben has drawn some heavy double-teams so far in this series, especially in Game 2. A double team in Game 5 gave Miller a free path to the basket at the end. Who benefits from Rose and Ben being double teamed? Based on what Kendrick has said, they might start doubling Kirk. If so, it will be the first time this series that will happen.

Kirk has played great, no doubt. But IMO, Gordon has outplayed Ray Allen in every game but 1 (Game 3). And Ray Allen is a pretty damn good player.

 

[Fred]

Fred wrote:

wjb1492 wrote:

Shakes wrote:

Joke all your like, but the one area we're dominating the Celtics on is bench production. I think that's the context of why they want to stop Kirk, they realise if our bench gives us the crap their bench is giving them, then the edge they have over our starters means they'll win for sure.

Basically they're saying they don't need to change what they're doing on Gordon/Rose/Snipes, because they're confident Rondo/Peirce/Allen can match them. They know the way House or Marbury are playing they're not going to match Hinrich.

I think that's it exactly. Of all the matchups, Kirk is the one Chicago guy majorly outproducing his Boston counterpart. And, as we've all commented on ad nauseum all season, it's one thing to get beaten by the other team's elite starters and quite another thing to get lit up by the opponent's 4th or 5th option. It shouldn't be taken as an insult to other players on the Bulls or as Perkins claiming Kirk is the Bulls' best player. But in this series, especially at this point, Derrick has been shooting himself in the foot with the TOs and Ben and John are hobbled with injuries.

Another point in support of this is PER for the playoffs so far - which, with such a small sample size, is not reliably predictive of anyone's long-term ability but is reflective of the level they are playing at in the immediate short-term present. And for the Bulls (PER from basketballreference.com:

Player / Playoff PER / PER Differential(regular to postseason)

Joakim --- 17.8 ---------- +1.3
Kirk ----- 17.0 ---------- +3.1
Ben ------ 16.9 ---------- -0.1
Tyrus ---- 14.6 ---------- -1.3
Derrick -- 14.1 ---------- -1.9
John ----- 11.6 ---------- -4.4
Brad ----- 7.8 --------- -10.8

On top of that, most people have acknowledged that Kirk is playing very good defense in the playoffs. So in the context of this series, I'd say there's a very good argument that Perkins is exactly right - while Derrick and Ben have both had very good games, overall Kirk and Joakim are the guys who have really stepped up their regular season production for the playoffs.

And clearly, Ben has attracted the tougher defenders, and a lot more defensive attention, and that benefits everyone else but himself. Rose has to. And how do you measure the benefit of Ben drawing fouls? Ray Allen has spent a lot of time on the bench.

 

[Fred]

Just asking, but Ray Allen is shooting 40% in this series, almost 10 points below his percentage in the regular season. Why does Ben never get any credit for that? Every game-winning shot Allen has made occured with Ben on the bench, and someone else attempting to guard him...I'll have too look at the tape again to determine who.

 

[wjb1492]

Fred wrote:

Does the PER take into account if a player is double teamed or not? Ben has drawn some heavy double-teams so far in this series, especially in Game 2. A double team in Game 5 gave Miller a free path to the basket at the end. Who benefits from Rose and Ben being double teamed? Based on what Kendrick has said, they might start doubling Kirk. If so, it will be the first time this series that will happen.

Kirk has played great, no doubt. But IMO, Gordon has outplayed Ray Allen in every game but 1 (Game 3). And Ray Allen is a pretty damn good player.

PER is what it is. You want people to back up their opinions with facts; I did. Did you bother to note my key points there?

1. Kirk is significantly outproducing his regular season production. I used PER to reflect that. Notice here that not only did I not attack Ben in any way, I acknowledged that he has had some very good games in the series and that he is playing through injury. I also pointed out that you can only use these PERs as reflective of how a guy has played over the 5-game series so far, and that this does not reflect past performance or future performance. No where did I say that Kirk is "better" than Ben - I pointed out that Kirk has increased his PER by more than the other guys on the team for the playoffs.

I agree that Ben has outplayed Ray Allen overall, but I do not agree that he has outplayed RA in the same proportional sense that Kirk has outplayed the Celtics' bench. I think Ben is doing exactly what the Celtics expected him to do. I think Kirk is doing more than the Celtics expected Kirk to do. And I think that was reflected in Perkins statement.

2. No one likes to get beaten by the other team's 4th or 5th option. The general "we" griped about it all season - guys on other teams having career nights, the Brandon Rush's of the world lighting the Bulls up. In the context of offensive output on this team as currently constructed, Kirk is a 4th or 5th guy - I'd say 4th, but wouldn't really argue with someone who puts him 5th. This is actually a compliment to Ben. He's the guy that, when he lights another team up, they shake their heads and say "What are we gonna do? He's Ben Gordon." Kirk is the guy that, when he puts up points, the other team shakes their head and asks "How do we let Kirk Hinrich beat us? We got lit up by Kirk frickin' Hinrich!"

3. Perkins did not say Kirk is the Bulls best player. He said they need to keep him from coming in a scoring a lot. He also said this after Kirk had an outstanding couple of games in the series, and after a Game 5 in which, if Kirk is not producing early, the Celtics are probably running away with it.

Now, I didn't start tracking it until Game 2, but I remember Kirk having a negative PER after Game 1. Derrick's and Ben's were through the roof. Since then Kirk's PER has skyrocketed, Ben's has declined, and Derrick's has dropped like lead weight. You and some others here apparently choose to look at the Perkin's quote as yet more undeserved praise of Kirk. As a side note, that's kind of funny because when I was listening to the press conference and heard Perkins say that, I actually thought of you having a stroke over it.

But if you take a deep breath and put aside your oh-my-god-someone-praised-Kirk-and-didn't-mention-Ben perspective, it's pretty reasonable that after Game 5 the guy they would talk about needing to stop is Kirk. Not that they're going to quit covering Ben, or Derrick, or John, but that they need to stop Kirk as well. Not that they don't worry about Ben lighting them up, but damned if they're going to go down because they failed to cover frickin' Kirk Hinrich. Not even that Kirk is having a better overall series than Ben, but that Kirk wasn't the guy they came into this worrying about and all of a sudden they're realizing he's capable of being the difference in the series if they don't cover him better, and at the same time their bench is totally failing to step up.

I swear, it's like you want anything remotely complimentary of Kirk to be amended by a parenthetical. Kirk had a great game.* (*Ben is better.) Kirk shot really well.* (*Ben is better.) Kirk had to get stitches after bouncing his head off the floor.* (*Ben is better.) Derrick Rose said Kirk helps him with plays sometimes.* (*Ben is better).

 

[clonetrooper264]

wjb1492 wrote:

I swear, it's like you want anything remotely complimentary of Kirk to be amended by a parenthetical. Kirk had a great game.* (*Ben is better.) Kirk shot really well.* (*Ben is better.) Kirk had to get stitches after bouncing his head off the floor.* (*Ben is better.) Derrick Rose said Kirk helps him with plays sometimes.* (*Ben is better).

Would that qualify as "Ben droning"? I mean I love Ben and how he plays and his clutchness and whatnot, but seriously people need to understand that it is possible to like Kirk AND Ben. And it is possible to give one praise without trashing the other. C'mon we're all knowledgeable Bulls fans, we can give Kirk praise without saying "oh but Ben sucked because he was 6-21 and blah blah blah" or something stupid like that, just like we can praise Ben without saying "oh but Kirk he sucks because he scored 12 points on some pretty crappy shooting and he isn't clutch like Ben blah blah blah." Goodness I feel like JamesLikeCoulter on youtube.

 

[wjb1492]

Fred wrote:

Just asking, but Ray Allen is shooting 40% in this series, almost 10 points below his percentage in the regular season. Why does Ben never get any credit for that? Every game-winning shot Allen has made occured with Ben on the bench, and someone else attempting to guard him...I'll have too look at the tape again to determine who.

Ben gets plenty of credit around here, Real GM, and BlogABull. Yes, there are posters who don't care for Ben, but imo they're a small minority. I, labeled Kirk fan that I am, actually posted a fairly long, statistical review of Ben showing that he's not an inconsistent scorer in comparison with other elite scorers over at BlogABull to defend him against a non-Ben fan. I read a lot of posts here and there crediting Ben with improved defense. I read a lot of posts wanting to keep Ben in a Bulls uni. I agree with all of them.

The guys you're mad at, I gather, are largely the media. I get your frustration at a couple of the articles that have been discussed around here lately. This was a very brief statement made by an opposing player after a game. He didn't mention Ben, positively or negatively. He only referred to Kirk, and you have to read a lot into it to interpret the statement as Kirk being better than Ben. But you apparently object anyway. I posted originally to explain what I interpreted Perkins as trying to say, and showing why I thought that was a reasonable thing for him to say. Apparently I've made the same mistake Perkins did - I said something regarding Kirk without first foaming at the mouth over how great Ben is.

So here you go - I think Ben is great! His defense is much improved. He's the Bulls' best offensive player by a pretty fair margin. He's hugely efficient. He hits shots that absolutely amaze me. His work ethic is extraordinary. He played more games than anyone else this year. He's been the consummate professional through all the 6th man and contract negotiating garbage. He loves PB&J, which is just plain awesome. He's pretty cute when he smiles.

I still think what Perkins said is reasonable in the context of the series.