Detailed look at 2013 cubs and suggestions for improvement going into 2014

[beckdawg]

Warning incoming wall of text

I'm going to start with NL stats for the cubs. I would have included AL but the DH often skews data between the two leagues.

These are offensive stats
Runs per game - 3.72(14th out of 15) league average was 4.00 top 5 was between 4.23 and 4.83
Plate appearances - 6079(11th out of 15) league average was 6141 with top 5 having between 6168 and 6334
Hits - 1307(14th out of 15) league average was 1384 with top 5 having between 1446 and 1511
Walks - 439(11th out of 15) league average was 474 with top 5 having between 481 and 585
Strikeouts - 1230(9th out of 15) league average was 1225 with top 5 having between 1183 and 1078
Batting average - .238(13th out of 15) league average was .251 with top 5 having between .259 and .270
On base percent - .300(14th out of 15) league average was .315 with top 5 having between .323 and .332
Homers - 172(2nd out of 15) league average was 144 with top 5 having between 159 and 181
ISO(Extra base hits/ABs) - .154(1st out of 15) league average .137 with top 5 having between .146 and .154
Stolen Bases - 63(13th out of 15) league average 84 with top 5 having between 94 and 142
Left on base - 1092(6th out of 15) league average was 1121 with top 5 having between 1087 and 1061

Some of these numbers are impacted by the lower number of plate appearances. For example, the number of runners left on base would likely go up had they been closer to league average. So that stat is some what misleading. Ideally this would be a percentage stat but baseball reference doesn't have that and that's what I'm using for this. I've included these types of stats just to try and give a complete picture. Just keep in mind something like HRs and strikeouts would likely increase due to this.

Batting order stats
#1 - 77 runs 16 HRs 61 RBIs 10 SBs .257 avg .321 OBP
#2 - 80 runs 16 HRs 47 RBIs 8 SBs .244 avg .310 OBP
#3 - 73 runs 23 HRs 85 RBIs 7 SBs .232 avg .317 OBP
#4 - 85 runs 31 HRs 92 RBIs 15 SBs .259 avg .305 OBP
#5 - 67 runs 18 HRs 61 RBIs 10 SBs .221 avg .284 OBP
#6 - 63 runs 20 HRs 61 RBIs 6 SBs .246 avg .305 OBP
#7 - 65 runs 26 HRs 66 RBIs 2 SBs .256 avg .321 OBP
#8 - 52 runs 12 HRs 55 RBIs 3 SBs .238 avg .308 OBP

I'm not going to type out the same thing for another team but you can view the Cardinals 1-8 here

From this data, we can draw some conclusions. First of all, unsurprisingly the cubs were very poor at scoring runs. This obviously is one of the core reasons they lost so many games. Their ability to walk when adjust for fewer plate appearances puts them near the league average. Obviously it's not something they did exceedingly well. However, it isn't an abysmal either. Their hits however is pretty bad. This is evident in their poor batting average and that is the larger part of why their on base was so low. With their left on base being what it was, the problem doesn't appear to be the inability to drive in runs. It seems as though they just didn't get on base enough.

The really interesting thing is the power numbers. Soriano is obviously gone but even without him they would be a good power hitting team. I've been pointing to this awhile but I don't think many fans realize this because the situation at 3B is a bit misleading. When you throw the production they got there in with Schierholtz and Rizzo the cubs actually had pretty decent power.

There weren't meany "good" players in the order there but the worst offenders were the #5 hole, followed by the #4, #6, and #8 holes. I should also mention the #1 hole is a bit deceiving because DeJesus took 299 of the 738 PAs there and he is obviously gone. He batted .262 with a .341 OBP there. The #4 hitter was mostly Soriano(54%) and Schierholtz(18%). The #5 slot was mostly Schierholtz(264 PAs) with no one else having more than 71 PAs there. The 6 hole is sort of surprising because it mostly consisted of Castillo/Navarro taking 262 of the 665 PAs and they both were in the .333 OBP there. I guess the rest of the PAs there really pulled it down. The #8 slot was mostly Barney which really isn't that shocking.

So, the $1 mil question is how do we go about fixing this. I'm going to start with Schierholtz. He hit .262 vs righties and .170 vs lefties. His OBP vs righties was .300 and .308 vs lefties. The cubs saw a lefty about 25% of the time this past year. Schierholtz had 437 PAs vs righties. So, you could expect 146 or so PAs vs lefties for a full time player. I think he provides enough to warrant a platoon. To drag the combine player up to a respectable OBP you're going to need around 184 combined walks + hits. Schierholtz had 129 from vs righties. That means to get him to a league average .315 OBP you'd need a .377 OBP out of the lefty split which is fairly unlikely. However, someone like Lake might work. Lake had an OBP of .415 in 65 PAs vs lefties. If lake were to have say a .350 OBP vs lefties it would push the combined performance in RF to .309 OBP which again isn't stellar but it would help.

For Barney, I think the obvious answer is Alcantara(or Baez) when he's ready. So, I'm not sure they are going to do much here. He hit .246 vs lefties with .310 OBP. Again, not stellar but if he were in a platoon with a decent hitter vs righties his glove as a defensive replacement has some value. Murphy hit righties decently at .254 with a .309 OBP. However, without a clear option at 3B he may be needed there. Watkins is obviously another option but there isn't a big sample size there to say how good he is. And a minor FA is another possibility. Just looking around there doesn't appear to be a lot out there but someone like Skip Schumaker hit .265 with a .338 OBP vs righties. And he would fit the short term plan.

From there, you have two problems as I see it. They are missing a lead off hitter and I'm not sure they have a #4 hitter. I think Castro with his walk issues is better suited toward the 2 slot. One would assume Baez will be up midseason. So, that would take care of the the #4 hitter for half of the season. Alcantara maybe suited toward the lead off spot but I'm not sure it's a given the way that Baez as a #4 hitter would be. For example, Alcantara might be a better 2 hitter.

So, with that being said, I think if they can get a Reed Johnson or a Dejesus to play LF or CF that would be where the team goes rather than going after someone like Nelson Cruz to play LF. Sadly, that probably means your 4-6 is some form of Schierholtz, Murphy, Castillo and or Olt until at least mid season. Alternatively, if they did sign someone like Schumaker maybe you bat him lead off vs righties and when you're facing lefties you move Lake there. That would then free up the OF for a better 4 hitter. My only problem is finding the right guy there is difficult because they aren't likely to drop $15+ mil plus there. Someone like Morse or Corey Hart could make sense. But, this really only makes sense if they get someone like Schumaker who can play in the infield and bat lead off.

I'll probably take a look at the pitching some time tonight but the bears game is about to start so I'll be distracted for a bit.

 

[SilenceS]

I can tell you what sucks. That this managerial thing has gone on long enough that we lost Dave McKay. That was the one guy I didn't want to lose especially with the crop of OF we have coming up soon. He went to the Diamondbacks for the same position. This is going to hurt more then people think.

 

[CSF77]

I can tell you what sucks. That this managerial thing has gone on long enough that we lost Dave McKay. That was the one guy I didn't want to lose especially with the crop of OF we have coming up soon. He went to the Diamondbacks for the same position. This is going to hurt more then people think.

He lives in Azl. It made sense for him to this. It was a sense of loyalty to the Cubs but come on who would not want to work were he lives.

 

[CSF77]

The really interesting thing is the power numbers. Soriano is obviously gone but even without him they would be a good power hitting team. I've been pointing to this awhile but I don't think many fans realize this because the situation at 3B is a bit misleading. When you throw the production they got there in with Schierholtz and Rizzo the cubs actually had pretty decent power.

What the problem here is the Cubs lack a power hitting RH hitter to split up Rizzo and Schierholtz. For all of his lacking the Cubs have no answer on the current line up to address this problem. Until Baez promotes that is. We can hope that Olt becomes that stepping stone but to be honest does anyone honestly feel he will just bounce back?

From there, you have two problems as I see it. They are missing a lead off hitter and I'm not sure they have a #4 hitter. I think Castro with his walk issues is better suited toward the 2 slot. One would assume Baez will be up midseason. So, that would take care of the the #4 hitter for half of the season. Alcantara maybe suited toward the lead off spot but I'm not sure it's a given the way that Baez as a #4 hitter would be. For example, Alcantara might be a better 2 hitter.

Later season:

Szczur CF
Alcantara 2B
Baez SS
Rizzo 1B
Olt 3B (unless Bryant just goes mon-star next year)
Sweeney RF
Lake LF
Castillo C

If they pick up anyone they should just do so to flip him. I can see Castro, Schierholtz, Olt and Barney all gone by this time next year with future projects as returns. Keeps the wheel turning.