Did the Bears Make a Mistake Hiring Eberflus?

[RiDLer80]

Yes, I know it's too early to tell, but there are some themes and trends regarding playoff teams that are worth looking at. It's no secret that the NFL is now an offensive league and defense does not win you championships anymore; QB play does.

When looking at the top offenses in the league, 10 of the top 11 offenses made the playoffs this year. The lone team that did not make the playoffs were the Detroit Lions. Bears were 28th, FYI.

Among the remaining teams in the playoffs, 7 of the 8 have offensive backgrounds. The 8th coach is Sean McDermott with the Buffalo Bills.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615198815400624129

There were 10 new head coaches this season. Of those 10, 4 had defensive backgrounds (Lovie, Eberflus, Dennis Allen, Todd Bowles) and 6 came from the offensive side (Pederson, Daboll, Kevin O'Connell, McDaniel, Hackett, and McDaniels). One from each side got fired (Lovie and Hackett). One from the defensive side made the playoffs (25%), and four from the offensive side made the playoffs (67%).

The hit rate and importance seem to lean towards offense. Now, obviously each team had drastically different circumstances where none of these comparisons are apples-to-apples. I just think it's interesting and something to monitor going forward the success of teams and their coaches' coaching background.

Should the Bears have hired Pederson or Daboll instead of Eberflus? Only time will tell.

 

[clenbuterol_clint]

Yes

 

[Aesopian]

I still remember how much CCS didn't want Doug Pederson.

 

[Aesopian]

Yes, I know it's too early to tell, but there are some themes and trends regarding playoff teams that are worth looking at. It's no secret that the NFL is now an offensive league and defense does not win you championships anymore; QB play does.

When looking at the top offenses in the league, 10 of the top 11 offenses made the playoffs this year. The lone team that did not make the playoffs were the Detroit Lions. Bears were 28th, FYI.

Among the remaining teams in the playoffs, 7 of the 8 have offensive backgrounds. The 8th coach is Sean McDermott with the Buffalo Bills.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615198815400624129

There were 10 new head coaches this season. Of those 10, 4 had defensive backgrounds (Lovie, Eberflus, Dennis Allen, Todd Bowles) and 6 came from the offensive side (Pederson, Daboll, Kevin O'Connell, McDaniel, Hackett, and McDaniels). One from each side got fired (Lovie and Hackett). One from the defensive side made the playoffs (25%), and four from the offensive side made the playoffs (67%).

The hit rate and importance seem to lean towards offense. Now, obviously each team had drastically different circumstances where none of these comparisons are apples-to-apples. I just think it's interesting and something to monitor going forward the success of teams and their coaches' coaching background.

Should the Bears have hired Pederson or Daboll instead of Eberflus? Only time will tell.

I don't think they had many options at the time but Eberflus has been good but Chicago was pretty low on the desired list for potential head coaches.

 

[RiDLer80]

I still remember how much CCS didn't want Doug Pederson.

I don't think he would've succeeded to extent he did this season because Jacksonville went all in on their young QB.

Poles chose to go in a completely opposite direction and tear everything down--which I agree was necessary.

This offseason's resources should be spent putting everything necessary for Fields to succeed around him. That way we can better gauge his, and Eberflus', abilities.

 

[Ares]

I'd argue Eberflus was the perfect hire.

This was bound to be a down year, in the middle of a transition plan away from Ted Phillips, and possibly away from the McCaskey ownership.

Flus is cheap, compatible, and disposable once Ginny dies and the dust settles.

I don't think the current Bears organization is built to do much than be easily disposable once there's finally new ownership.

They want to keep being a doormat to build up draft capital for new owners to build a new team for a new stadium.

It hasn't stopped any of the waddling fucktards from guzzling down 12$ Miller Lites for 8 Sundays a year.

 

[Alpha Male]

Yes. I thought it was a lovieesque hire but eberflus is worst than lovie. I wanted an offensive oriented head coach.

 

[mecha]

I don't think they had many options at the time but Eberflus has been good but Chicago was pretty low on the desired list for potential head coaches.

everyone's aware that the Bears are a dumpster fire. you weren't going to attract anyone super good to be the head coach.

some things never change. that's why you get a bunch of first timer head coaches with this team. Poles blowing the roster up to chop out the dead money was the right move. I'm glad Roquan Smith got a lot of money from the Ravens.

 

[zabavka]

HITS

 

[bamainatlanta]

OP brings up good points. My only answer is to wait & see? The team was hardly going to be seriously competitive this year and I’m glad they weren’t.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

I'm leaning that way. Eberflus was not a very 'sexy' hire. I wanted Daboll and would have even been okay with Pederson. Never really wanted a defensive guy.

With that said, I don't think this season was a very good indicator. We knew it was going to be bad (4-6 wins) and then Poles went scorched earth middle of the season and tore this thing down to the foundation. No matter the coach, results would have been similar imo. I'll give him his time and hope it pans out, but I can't say I was ever excited about the hire.

 

[mattb78]

I think Flus was a great hire. The defense was coached extremely well this season. He hired a competent OC. It was just a tank year so people are underestimating him. I think he is one of the better defensive minds out there and it seems like he can hire a competent staff.

 

[legendxofxlink]

Most of these teams are really fucking good at defense too. Continuity between scheme/playcaller/QB is very important though.

JAX - offense - Doug Pederson. . . #12 in scoring defense. . . #5 in turnovers
KC - offense - Andy Reid. . . #2 in sacks per game, freak alien at QB
NYG - offense - Brian Daboll. . . how are they in the playoffs? and how did they get lucky enough to play Kirk Cousins?
PHI - offense - Nick Sirianni. . . #3 yardage defense. . . deepest defensive front NFL has seen in years. 2 sacks shy of '85 Bears record
CIN - offense -Zac Taylor. . . #5 scoring defense
BUF - defense - Sean McDermott. . . #2 scoring defense
DAL - offense - Mike McCarthy. . . #6 scoring defense. . . #1 in turnovers
SF - offense - Kyle Shanahan. . . #1 scoring defense

 

[doctorbear]

I mean yes it’s obvious. No one but the bears wanted the guy

 

[94SupraTT]

We've seen this movie before. I'd argue Lovie was a better hire. Lovie at least had elite defenses at times. Eberflus has never proven he can create an elite defense. So now the best we can hope for is an OC carousel that works out. Or....we could have just hired an offensive coach. I was all in on Daboll. That said apparently he has a ton of family in New York and was never going to leave. Once the Giants interview happened it was a done deal due to family. Peterson should have been the pick.

 

[Mdbearz]

I actually like the hire for a tear down year. He kept the team together even though they lost so much, and off loaded so many of the "star" players.

My question is, was it a mistake to keep him for 2023?

 

[TezMaKai]

The one remaining defensive coach will win the SB so nah

 

[Chicago4Life]

Yes, I know it's too early to tell, but there are some themes and trends regarding playoff teams that are worth looking at. It's no secret that the NFL is now an offensive league and defense does not win you championships anymore; QB play does.

When looking at the top offenses in the league, 10 of the top 11 offenses made the playoffs this year. The lone team that did not make the playoffs were the Detroit Lions. Bears were 28th, FYI.

Among the remaining teams in the playoffs, 7 of the 8 have offensive backgrounds. The 8th coach is Sean McDermott with the Buffalo Bills.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615198815400624129

There were 10 new head coaches this season. Of those 10, 4 had defensive backgrounds (Lovie, Eberflus, Dennis Allen, Todd Bowles) and 6 came from the offensive side (Pederson, Daboll, Kevin O'Connell, McDaniel, Hackett, and McDaniels). One from each side got fired (Lovie and Hackett). One from the defensive side made the playoffs (25%), and four from the offensive side made the playoffs (67%).

The hit rate and importance seem to lean towards offense. Now, obviously each team had drastically different circumstances where none of these comparisons are apples-to-apples. I just think it's interesting and something to monitor going forward the success of teams and their coaches' coaching background.

Should the Bears have hired Pederson or Daboll instead of Eberflus? Only time will tell.

isnt this the reason why the bears went with nagy because of that offensive trend? it did the bears wonders as they stooped to new lows and new sayings like "be you"

all jokes aside each year is different and circumstances play a large part...last season there were 5 defensive minded HC's in the playoffs...the year before 4 and 1 ST HC...

Its all about continuity and how you maintain it for the non offensive minded HC's...bills havent lost a step since daboll left
for all these offensive minded HC's that succeed you have a failed guy like hackett who simply couldnt hack it and got fired in his first season and then the guys that really had everything like kingsbury, rhule who had lots of control that simply failed to do much of anything

 

[RiDLer80]

Most of these teams are really fucking good at defense too. Continuity between scheme/playcaller/QB is very important though.

JAX - offense - Doug Pederson. . . #12 in scoring defense. . . #5 in turnovers
KC - offense - Andy Reid. . . #2 in sacks per game, freak alien at QB
NYG - offense - Brian Daboll. . . how are they in the playoffs? and how did they get lucky enough to play Kirk Cousins?
PHI - offense - Nick Sirianni. . . #3 yardage defense. . . deepest defensive front NFL has seen in years. 2 sacks shy of '85 Bears record
CIN - offense -Zac Taylor. . . #5 scoring defense
BUF - defense - Sean McDermott. . . #2 scoring defense
DAL - offense - Mike McCarthy. . . #6 scoring defense. . . #1 in turnovers
SF - offense - Kyle Shanahan. . . #1 scoring defense

This is a really good point that's not talked about like it used. Does defense still mater? Looking at the stats you mentioned (scoring D, takeaways, sacks)

5 of top 11 in scoring defenses did not make the playoffs (NYJ, Washington, New Orleans, Pitts, New England), 6 did (Baltimore, SF, Buffalo, Dallas, Cincy, Philly), Jax was 12th in scoring D so 7 out of 12 made. Bears were dead last in scoring defense.

Turnovers, 2 of the top 11 in takeaways did not make the playoffs (New England, Houston), 9 did (Dallas, SF, Buff, Jax, Philly, Cincy, Seattle, Minnesota, Baltimore). Bears were tied for 14th in takeaways

Sacks, 7 of the top 12 made the playoffs and 5 missed the playoffs. Made (Philly, KC, Dallas, TB, Seattle, SF, Baltimore). Missed (NE, NO,, NYJ, Indy, Washington). Bears were dead last in sacks too.

Not blowing any minds here, but you need more than a great defense to make the playoffs in today's game. Getsy will make or break Eberflus' tenure, IMO in addition to Poles needing to get an infusion of talent onto this team.

Edit: Highest correlation between a defensive stat and making the playoffs is takeways. Giving your offense more opportunities to score need to be prioritized. Again, not earth-shattering.

Edit 2: Correcting stats to show Baltimore as having made the playoffs.

 

[sevvy]

Reserving judgement until the Bears have more talent than a junior college intramural flag football team.