Does Bye Bye Albert = Hello KB?

[CSF77]

It never stops other teams from signing players.

Lets see decline.

30-32. 5-6 WAR
33-35 3-4 WAR
36-39 2-3 WAR

That is pretty realistic.

So over 9 years he would compile 28-37 WAR. age normally means more injury this the value drop.

So that really means his AAV 30M and AAV WAR would be 3-4 WAR. I agree it would be a bit low for 30 AAV. 25 plus perks makes more business sense if this is his value.

I would say it is a conservative future prediction. He could go off an a 7 war season then injure out again and lose 2 war the next.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

It never stops other teams from signing players.

Lets see decline.

30-32. 5-6 WAR
33-35 3-4 WAR
36-39 2-3 WAR

That is pretty realistic.

So over 9 years he would compile 28-37 WAR. age normally means more injury this the value drop.

So that really means his AAV 30M and AAV WAR would be 3-4 WAR. I agree it would be a bit low for 30 AAV. 25 plus perks makes more business sense if this is his value.

I would say it is a conservative future prediction. He could go off an a 7 war season then injure out again and lose 2 war the next.

I just am not interested in the risk Bryant presents on a long term contract. His last few years have been disappointing and I don't care to test that with a 10 year contract

 

[CSF77]

I just am not interested in the risk Bryant presents on a long term contract. His last few years have been disappointing and I don't care to test that with a 10 year contract

Last year was a 60 game season.
Year before 600 PA+ 4.8 fWAR
2018 457 PA 2.4 fWAR
2017 600+ PA 6.7 fWAR
2016 600+ PA 7.9 fWAR
2015 600+ PA 6.1 fWAR

So it dropped in 2018 and I believe that was a injury to his left arm that affected his follow through on his swing.

Following year his D went dislike. But his O value matched his rookie year. 135-136 wRC+. So his D degraded vs his bat.

2020 the whole O stunk. This year he rebounded.

Right now he only trails Trout and Acuna in fWAR. Trout has unreal BABIP over .500. that will not hold. Acuna .286 BABIP which has room for growth. Bryant .351 BABIP which is a career best mark

Getting to that. He has never dipped below .331 until 2020. .264. ISO .145 again career low.

So I will take 2020 as a exception because video footage was banned and the team as a whole tanked.

But this year he has over come the high fastball so his BABIP going up 12 points over his career avg is explained by being able to neutralize the goto pitch that was used against him. So that feels real.

So in general his 2 dips can be explained. His 4.8 year between was not because of his bat. His D value took a hit. And now he is up with the elite again and looks sustainable.

So the man is going to get paid.

 

[zack54attack]

I think you throw last season out of the books. 60 game sample in a weird year where he battled injuries, meh.

 

[CSF77]

I think you throw last season out of the books. 60 game sample in a weird year where he battled injuries, meh.

If I had to guess Bryant would settle on 8 years. 240M.