Dont Let This Place Become Another Javier Baez Hyperbole Pocket!!

[KBIB]

Ok, first off, the kid is as intriguing a prospect as there is in baseball. I also understand the subliminal hype Theo is trying to do with keeping this kid in the minors as long as possible when right now, he might have nothing to prove down there if his skill set is at a AAA level right now. That being said, the homers on other forums are predicting him to be Trout-like, which is a fucking joke. Or that his value as a prospect could return Trout, Kershaw, or Price by himself and in Price's case, they need to add. Stop fucking fooling yourselves. Dont let this place become such a frigging embarrassment that posts like those are actually seen as legitimate and encouraged. Now, everybody is allowed to their opinion, but the one great thing about this place, besides allowing personal attacks when debates get heated, is that most of the posters here come off as intelligent and bring something to the mix even if the opinion defers. But, until Baez puts up ungodly numbers for the shit team playing in shitty, urine stenched Wrigley, lets not put this kid in the HOF just yet. Nothing makes a fanbase look like a bunch of clowns moreso then this universal stupidity in believing in false hype because there isnt anything else to hype up. Baez is a great prospect, and there isnt a single person here who would say he wasnt, but the kid is still a prospect.




Crumpet?

 

[theberserkfury]

Agreed... who's saying he isn't still just a prospect though? Or was this just preemptive?

 

[KBIB]

Agreed... who's saying he isn't still just a prospect though? Or was this just preemptive?

Preemptive to an extent. I was taking a shit and brought my tablet into the head and theres a MB that i can only get on using my tablet and had my post edited by a Mod who didnt like the fact i questioned the logic of a poster who said Baez could surely return Mike fucking Trout by himself since the entire forum agreed he could.

Now, i never said i knew everything, but i do know that Baez couldnt return Trout. I also questioned David Price AND Archer would be a suitable return for Baez and was quickly banned.

I might be old fashioned, but reality seems to be a running continuance in my life.


Crumpet?

 

[CSF77]

I've said it before. Let him prove himself in AAA. He dominates in Apr and they decide to hold him back past the super 2 cut off then we know what their priories are as a ball club: Profit first.

As we have seen: Rizzo got held back and still got a contract and still struggled after the hold back. Holding back means little.

 

[DewsSox79]

twitter and other boards have some fans stating that they wouldnt trade baez for trout. some people are nuts.


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

And the argument of Dale pushed for Jackson and Vitters to get a taste and they struggled:

2 answers.

1: Talent was over rated.
2: Holes in their swing.

Vitters can hit. He was injured. His holes are in his power not developing after 5 years in the system and his walk % has always been below standards.
Jackson is with his contact rate. He walks fine and his power is fine for a OBA type.

Vitters lacks D. Jackson D is good.

Neither are complete packages. Thus the over rated tag.

The problem goes back to scouting and Development. The system had poor talent over all and anything that "we" were lead to believe was good was in reality not that good.

 

[KBIB]

I've said it before. Let him prove himself in AAA. He dominates in Apr and they decide to hold him back past the super 2 cut off then we know what their priories are as a ball club: Profit first.

As we have seen: Rizzo got held back and still got a contract and still struggled after the hold back. Holding back means little.

:clap::clap::clap:


Crumpet?

 

[brett05]

And the argument of Dale pushed for Jackson and Vitters to get a taste and they struggled:

2 answers.

1: Talent was over rated.
2: Holes in their swing.

Vitters can hit. He was injured. His holes are in his power not developing after 5 years in the system and his walk % has always been below standards.
Jackson is with his contact rate. He walks fine and his power is fine for a OBA type.

Vitters lacks D. Jackson D is good.

Neither are complete packages. Thus the over rated tag.

The problem goes back to ....

Having a GM allowing his major league coach determine callups.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Baez has great promise. Too many people see that talent and place too many expectations on him. Just let the player play. If he makes it to the Show and becomes an every day MLBer, great. If he becomes more than that every day player then everyone can be thrilled that Jim Hendry drafted an All-Star. Either way, just enjoy the journey of the kid through the system and let the cards play out as need be. What dummy would trade Baez for Kershaw? Why would Kershaw do anything with a generally weak hitting lineup supporting him? Why would Trout come to the Cubs and the Angels trade trout anyway?

 

[CSF77]

Having a GM allowing his major league coach determine callups.

I agree. Dale wanted to get his hands on them.

The thing is Jackson got worse as the pitching got better. Or he stayed the same and the talent passed him up.

Vitters can hit. But as a corner OF player I believe it will not be enough. 20 HR's out of LF is not getting it done.

 

[SilenceS]

I have a Baez crush but I keep it in check. I am usually saying outlandish things about him because if you mentions prospect some peoples assholes pucker. I will say that people need to get past the boom or bust of him. He has moved past that stage. He may never be great, but scouts believe he has reached a better floor now. Jason Parks said it right. It wasnt that Baez hit all those homeruns last year. Its his overall game improved greatly. He made huge leaps last year at a young age and thats what excites a lot of scouts.

 

[patg006]

Dont let this place become such a frigging embarrassment that posts like those are actually seen as legitimate and encouraged.

Too late.

Preemptive to an extent. I was taking a shit and brought my tablet into the head and theres a MB that i can only get on using my tablet and had my post edited by a Mod who didnt like the fact i questioned the logic of a poster who said Baez could surely return Mike fucking Trout by himself since the entire forum agreed he could.

Now, i never said i knew everything, but i do know that Baez couldnt return Trout. I also questioned David Price AND Archer would be a suitable return for Baez and was quickly banned.

What?? Getting banned for attempting to present a realistic and intelligent look at things and not being a total and complete fanboy??

Whose has ever heard of such a thing?

 

[JosMin]

Ok, first off, the kid is as intriguing a prospect as there is in baseball. I also understand the subliminal hype Theo is trying to do with keeping this kid in the minors as long as possible when right now, he might have nothing to prove down there if his skill set is at a AAA level right now. That being said, the homers on other forums are predicting him to be Trout-like, which is a fucking joke. Or that his value as a prospect could return Trout, Kershaw, or Price by himself and in Price's case, they need to add. Stop fucking fooling yourselves. Dont let this place become such a frigging embarrassment that posts like those are actually seen as legitimate and encouraged. Now, everybody is allowed to their opinion, but the one great thing about this place, besides allowing personal attacks when debates get heated, is that most of the posters here come off as intelligent and bring something to the mix even if the opinion defers. But, until Baez puts up ungodly numbers for the shit team playing in shitty, urine stenched Wrigley, lets not put this kid in the HOF just yet. Nothing makes a fanbase look like a bunch of clowns moreso then this universal stupidity in believing in false hype because there isnt anything else to hype up. Baez is a great prospect, and there isnt a single person here who would say he wasnt, but the kid is still a prospect.




Crumpet?

The thing most people forget is that Baez (and Bryant, for that matter) are the two best prospects we've had since Mark Prior. They both have extremely high ceilings and substantially high floors, as well. Baez, in particular, has elite offensive promise at a position (shortstop) where it's extremely uncommon. Corey Patterson and Felix Pie were both highly touted, but didn't offer the ceilings of either of these guys. Plus, they were outfielders, where offense isn't scarce. They both had holes in their swings that never disappeared. That isn't the issue with Baez or Bryant.

People aren't being homers. They're excited about the premise of these guys because they have superstar ceilings. We haven't had this kind of possibility in over 10 years. Remember how excited Cubs fans were when we had a young Prior, Kerry Wood and a rookie Carlos Zambrano? There's absolutely nothing wrong with rekindling that excitement. You guys who keep ragging on everyone for being excited and hopeful about them succeeding is ridiculous. Yes, everyone understands there's a possibility they don't transform into Hall of Famers. Or All-Stars. Or even everyday players. But where's the fun in going, "Welp, these guys could end up falling short of expectations. Let's just heed the side of caution and not get excited about anything until they've been in a Cubs uniform for five years and end up rattling off an All-Star game or two." That isn't what being a fan is about.

Being a fan means finding joy and pride in both possibilities AND expectations. I've also never heard ANYONE say that the Cubs could trade Javier Baez for any superstar player straight up. That's total conjecture. It's conventional wisdom to most baseball fans that understand how trade works it would take multiple prospects of Baez's caliber and expectation to land somebody like Trout, Kershaw or Price. And let's be honest, the only person in that conversation even being shopped is Price. But let's say, hypothetically, that the Cubs offered up Baez, Almora plus two other fringe guys for Price. What's the point of the Cubs allocating an overwhelming percentage of their resources over the last years to restock their farm system, only to mortgage that future on acquiring one starting pitcher, albeit an ace, who won't get them any closer to a World Series. Cool, we get David Price, the Cubs ceiling for 2014 suddenly goes from 70 wins to 74 -- we're still at least 12 games out of a Wild Card spot. What's the point?

 

[Jntg4]

The only person who could net Trout alone is...

Spoiler

Koyie Hill

Spoiler

Or Catfish Hunter

Spoiler

or Fisch

 

[patg006]

Corey Patterson and Felix Pie were both highly touted, but didn't offer the ceilings of either of these guys. Plus, they were outfielders, where offense isn't scarce. They both had holes in their swings that never disappeared. That isn't the issue with Baez or Bryant.

Revisionist history at it's finest by someone who likely was still in diapers when Patterson was a prospect.

Patterson was the #3 prospect in all of baseball in 2000 and the #2 prospect in 2001. His ceiling was thought to probably have been even higher than either Baez of Bryant. He was thought to be a perennial 30/30 guy. In 2003, he looked to be on his way to superstar status when he hit .298 with 13 HR's 16 SB's and an .839 OPS in about a half a season before getting injured.

That is far more impressive than a 54 game stint at AA.

Bryant has significant holes in his swing. Realistic people question if he will be able to make consistent enough contact to be an above average major league player. Everyone dropped a load when he hit a HR off a 32 year old career minor league pitcher, but he has struck out 6 times in 8 at bats so far this spring. There have been comparisons to Dave Kingman. If he ends up being Dave Kingman, that would be a colossal failure for the cost of a 101 loss season and the #2 overall pick. You can get a player like that in FA most years. See Nelson Cruz or Corey Hart. Mark Trumbo could have been had for a lesser cost and Kendrys Morales is still unsigned.

Remember how excited Cubs fans were when we had a young Prior, Kerry Wood and a rookie Carlos Zambrano? There's absolutely nothing wrong with rekindling that excitement.

But that excitement didn't start until all three were actually at the major league level and being productive at the major league level.

People are 'rekindling that excitement' about players that have barely dented AA and telling people who say let's wait to get excited until they reach the major leagues and are producing at the major league level that they are being unreasonable, not fans of the team and trolls.

But let's say, hypothetically, that the Cubs offered up Baez, Almora plus two other fringe guys for Price. What's the point of the Cubs allocating an overwhelming percentage of their resources over the last years to restock their farm system, only to mortgage that future on acquiring one starting pitcher, albeit an ace, who won't get them any closer to a World Series. Cool, we get David Price, the Cubs ceiling for 2014 suddenly goes from 70 wins to 74 -- we're still at least 12 games out of a Wild Card spot. What's the point?

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Price is a known elite major league player.

Baez, even now as a top 10 prospect, has less than a 40% chance of reaching that level. Almora about a 25% chance and who cares about the fringe prospects.

So the only way that the Cubs would actually improve is that both Baez and Almora reach that elite player status.

Chances of that happening? 1 in 10.

Chances that neither reaches elite status and the Cubs are worse than trading for a player like Price? 45%

 

[JosMin]

Revisionist history at it's finest by someone who likely was still in diapers when Patterson was a prospect.

Uh, I'm older than you, playboy. But sure, let's go with that!

Patterson was the #3 prospect in all of baseball in 2000 and the #2 prospect in 2001. His ceiling was thought to probably have been even higher than either Baez of Bryant. He was thought to be a perennial 30/30 guy. In 2003, he looked to be on his way to superstar status when he hit .298 with 13 HR's 16 SB's and an .839 OPS in about a half a season before getting injured.

Hmmm, let's see here. What's more valuable -- Elite offense from an outfield position, which is run-of-the-mill in today's game? Or elite offense from a middle infield position? Fairly certain most talking heads go with shortstop/second base over the outfield.

But again, let's go ahead and just go with whatever makes your argument more palatable.

That is far more impressive than a 54 game stint at AA.

LMAO! Coming from the guy who gripes about people being excited that Bryant and Baez are making strides against major league talent in spring training. Nice, so you were ready to crown Corey Patterson the next Ken Griffey after his '03 season? Again, you sit there and accuse people of being excited about Rizzo's debut season and what Castro did in his first three seasons and point to them struggling because they have zero help in the lineup like that's somehow in their control. Cool. Sounds good.

Bryant has significant holes in his swing.

Is that so? According to who?

Realistic people question if he will be able to make consistent enough contact to be an above average major league player.

Hmmm, is that why the overwhelming consensus is that even if his strikeout rate escalates as he progresses through the minors, he would still projected to be a fringe contact hitter with 30+ home run potential and an average to above-average defense?

The Scouting Report: The Las Vegas native has plus power potential and he showed it off during his brief pro debut in 2013. He’ll have to keep his strikeouts at bay if he’s going to continue to hit for a high average as a pro but he has good plate coverage and improving pitch recognition. Bryant’s defence at third base needs more work than his offence, although he should develop into an average third baseman, at worst. He has a strong arm, decent range and improving actions.

And then what about this praise? Or this article that points to 50-homer potential?

Everyone dropped a load when he hit a HR off a 32 year old career minor league pitcher, but he has struck out 6 times in 8 at bats so far this spring.

God damn. Shame on fans for getting excited when somebody on the team they root for hits a home run!

There have been comparisons to Dave Kingman.

And comparisons to Troy Glaus (a quality major leaguer who made four All-Star appearances, helped the Angles win the World Series, and was a career .321 hitter in the playoffs), Gary Carter (Hall of Famer), Ryan Braun (perennial All-Star, regardless of the steroid shit, and a guy on pace to be in the HoF conversation). But once again, we can keep using your "strawman" arguments that you love accusing everyone else of.

And LMMFAO about your Dave Kingman comparison. How dense are you? The guy hit 442 career home runs. If everything else Bryant did sucked and he still had those power totals, he was worth the selection. You're acting like elite power like that is something every team has a plethora of.

If he ends up being Dave Kingman, that would be a colossal failure for the cost of a 101 loss season and the #2 overall pick.

Because I'm sure the Cubs went into that season saying, "Let's just blow games so we can draft Kris Bryant!" Bryant's massive final season in college is what propelled his draft status from a second to fourth round consideration into one of the elite power hitting talents of the last few drafts.

You can get a player like that in FA most years. See Nelson Cruz or Corey Hart. Mark Trumbo could have been had for a lesser cost and Kendrys Morales is still unsigned.

Woulda. Coulda. Shoulda. Cruz would've been a nice addition, but there was zero indication the Cubs even kicked his tires. Corey Hart missed all of 2013. Again, a nice low-risk, moderate-reward candidate, but nothing was ever there. Trumbo was acquired for two Major League starting pitchers in their early 20s. I wouldn't call that a lesser cost than Bryant's signing bonus, especially given the amount of control the two guys, Santiago and Skaggs, are still under by the Angels. And with the draft pick compensation attached to Morales, it doesn't make sense to add him to the lineup when he's a liability defensively at first and doesn't have another spot on the diamond. At this point, he's a spot first base starter or a DH.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Price is a known elite major league player.

He absolutely is, but when you throw in he's about to cost you $25 million+ per season, plus putting an enormous dent in the pipeline the Cubs have spent the last three years building.... and the fact that David Price alone isn't going to push the Cubs closer to a World Series, let alone a Wild Card spot, why mortgage so much of your future just to say you acquired an ace? The trade-off doesn't make sense, if you ask me. The Cubs major league team isn't close enough to take that kind of risk, no matter how calculated.

Baez, even now as a top 10 prospect, has less than a 40% chance of reaching that level. Almora about a 25% chance and who cares about the fringe prospects.

So the only way that the Cubs would actually improve is that both Baez and Almora reach that elite player status.

Chances of that happening? 1 in 10.

Chances that neither reaches elite status and the Cubs are worse than trading for a player like Price? 45%

Where in the hell are you getting these arbitrary percentages from? Is there some kind of chart or formula you're using?

 

[KBIB]

Bryant has been compared to a bunch of players, a gentler Kingman being one of them. That went as far back as the draft when they said his floor was going to be Kingman if everything went wrong and he didnt work on the....wait for it....hole in his swing. Sure he hit a couple home runs already in ST and thats good, but striking out every other at bat? Thats not really impressive. I personally would be pleased if he became Adam Dunn, who, before his career busted down on the south side, was a pretty damn good player with HOF undertones on account of sabermetrics. That isnt a shabby player. Nor would it be a complete failure if thats his ceiling with the second pick in the draft.

As for Baez, i have no problems with fans pumping his tires. But he doesnt walk on water, either.



Crumpet?

 

[patg006]

Hmmm, let's see here. What's more valuable -- Elite offense from an outfield position, which is run-of-the-mill in today's game? Or elite offense from a middle infield position? Fairly certain most talking heads go with shortstop/second base over the outfield.

But again, let's go ahead and just go with whatever makes your argument more palatable.

Very few of those talking heads believe Baez will end up as a middle IF in the major leagues, but again let's go ahead and just go with whatever makes your argument more palatable.

LMAO! Coming from the guy who gripes about people being excited that Bryant and Baez are making strides against major league talent in spring training. Nice, so you were ready to crown Corey Patterson the next Ken Griffey after his '03 season? Again, you sit there and accuse people of being excited about Rizzo's debut season and what Castro did in his first three seasons and point to them struggling because they have zero help in the lineup like that's somehow in their control. Cool. Sounds good.

Actually I was griping about people being excited about Bryant hitting a HR off a career minor league and said that Baez HR off a major league pitcher had some validity to it.

Where did I say I was ready to crown Corey Patterson the next Ken Griffey? I said people were saying that he had potential to provide consistent 30/30 seasons. That is an Evel Knievel length jump between what I said and what you claim was said.

Cool. Sounds good.

Is that so? According to who?

Hmmm, is that why the overwhelming consensus is that even if his strikeout rate escalates as he progresses through the minors, he would still projected to be a fringe contact hitter with 30+ home run potential and an average to above-average defense?

Not sure what above-average defense has to do with a player having a hole in his swing, but yeah, whatever.

And according to a lot of people who are in scouting, hence why the very quote you provided specifically stated that he would have to keep his strikeouts down.

God damn. Shame on fans for getting excited when somebody on the team they root for hits a home run!

Let me know when I am shaming fans for be excited when Kris Bryant hits a HR for the Chicago Cubs in a game that counts instead of overreacting to a HR off a pitcher

And LMMFAO about your Dave Kingman comparison. How dense are you? The guy hit 442 career home runs. If everything else Bryant did sucked and he still had those power totals, he was worth the selection. You're acting like elite power like that is something every team has a plethora of.

I didn't make the comparison. Just repeated it, so go laugh at the person who made it.

The Dave Kingman who had 4 seasons out of 16 with a WAR above 2.0, two seasons of 100+ RBI's and two seasons of at least 80 games that his BA was above .270? Boy it sure would be hard to find that kind of production anywhere else.

Because I'm sure the Cubs went into that season saying, "Let's just blow games so we can draft Kris Bryant!" Bryant's massive final season in college is what propelled his draft status from a second to fourth round consideration into one of the elite power hitting talents of the last few drafts.

Of course they were saying let's just blow games so we can draft Kris Bryant.

They were saying let's just blow games so we can draft as high as possible though.

At the end of the day all that matters is the team lost 101 games and used the #2 pick on Kris Bryant. That is the cost to have him in the organization.

Nothing will change that.

Woulda. Coulda. Shoulda. Cruz would've been a nice addition, but there was zero indication the Cubs even kicked his tires. Corey Hart missed all of 2013. Again, a nice low-risk, moderate-reward candidate, but nothing was ever there. Trumbo was acquired for two Major League starting pitchers in their early 20s. I wouldn't call that a lesser cost than Bryant's signing bonus, especially given the amount of control the two guys, Santiago and Skaggs, are still under by the Angels. And with the draft pick compensation attached to Morales, it doesn't make sense to add him to the lineup when he's a liability defensively at first and doesn't have another spot on the diamond. At this point, he's a spot first base starter or a DH.

You missed the point completely. Kinda like Kris Bryant and his six strikeouts in eight at bats.

The point was not wether the Cubs "Coulda. Shoulda." signed any of those players, the point was those types of players are usually available every offseason and for a much lower cost than a 101 loss season and #2 overall pick in the draft.

He absolutely is, but when you throw in he's about to cost you $25 million+ per season, plus putting an enormous dent in the pipeline the Cubs have spent the last three years building.... and the fact that David Price alone isn't going to push the Cubs closer to a World Series, let alone a Wild Card spot, why mortgage so much of your future just to say you acquired an ace? The trade-off doesn't make sense, if you ask me. The Cubs major league team isn't close enough to take that kind of risk, no matter how calculated.

Javier Baez alone doesn't push the Cubs closer to a World Series, let alone a Wild Card spot.

As the facts were provided to you, there is about a 10% chance the Cubs end up with more production out of Baez and Almora at the major league level than a player like David Price would provide.

Where in the hell are you getting these arbitrary percentages from? Is there some kind of chart or formula you're using?

Not arbitrary at all. There have been studies done charting the success rate of Baseball America's top 100 prospects. The study concluded that just under 40% of position players ranked in their top 10 end up as superior (2.5+ WAR) players and that roughly 25% of position players in the 31-40 range do the same. The rest is just simple probability calculation.

And actually another study was done updating the original study to include the years 2003-2006 which lowered the number to about 36% for position players ranked in the top 10

 

[CSF77]

As much as I would want Price, I wouldn't want to trade the 4-5 players needed to pull it off.

Look it comes down to common sense. If the team is bad then Price will lose. If he loses then he will want out after he hits F/A. At that point the Cubs are holding their puds in their hands and with a depleted system. Really smart way of running a shop.

Best approach is to add via F/A while filtering in youth. So if some of these guys work out and the team starts to not look like a over sucked sausage fest. Then some of these F/A would want to sign.

2007 is a case in point of this. 2006 sucked balls but Marshall and Marmal came out of that mess.

This farm has more potential.

 

[patg006]

As much as I would want Price, I wouldn't want to trade the 4-5 players needed to pull it off.

Look it comes down to common sense. If the team is bad then Price will lose. If he loses then he will want out after he hits F/A. At that point the Cubs are holding their puds in their hands and with a depleted system. Really smart way of running a shop.

Best approach is to add via F/A while filtering in youth. So if some of these guys work out and the team starts to not look like a over sucked sausage fest. Then some of these F/A would want to sign.

2007 is a case in point of this. 2006 sucked balls but Marshall and Marmal came out of that mess.

This farm has more potential.

Best approach is actually to have a quality major league team in place so the prospects will be excellent supplemental pieces instead of having to bare the weight of turning the team into a competitive team.

2007 is a case in point of this. The had talent on the major league roster and that prior offseason *gasp* spent money on FA by signing Soriano, then in 2007 the kids younger players like Marshall and Mamol were excellent supplemental pieces. Soto came up at the end of the year and in 2008 on a quality team became the rookie of the year.

The 2007 team was in a different galaxy in terms of talent at the major league level.