ESPN's NL Central Preview

[Jntg4]

There is no way in hell that many wins come out of the NLC.

Ya, I know... but I like the thought of that happening.

 

[poodski]

Ya, I know... but I like the thought of that happening.

Actually I would hate that happening. It still has us finishing 3rd and would mean a lower draft pick.

If we win 90 games and miss the playoffs I will punch a small baby.

 

[Jntg4]

Actually I would hate that happening. It still has us finishing 3rd and would mean a lower draft pick.

If we win 90 games and miss the playoffs I will punch a small baby.

Well, good point... but I still want to see some winning baseball.

 

[poodski]

MLB NL Central preview: Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros - ESPN

Same win totals as before, but some additional info.

Ranks the Cubs as the best rotation in the central:

They don't have a true ace, but they're strong from top to bottom

Also must note that they have Silva as the fifth starter, not Cashner which according to ZiPS would make us even better.

It has our offense fourth:

Too many low OBP players prevent Chicago from being more dangerous.

It ranks them:

Pitching: Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates

Hitting: Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros

 

[Jntg4]

MLB NL Central preview: Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros - ESPN

Same win totals as before, but some additional info.

Ranks the Cubs as the best rotation in the central:



Also must note that they have Silva as the fifth starter, not Cashner which according to ZiPS would make us even better.

It has our offense fourth:



It ranks them:

Pitching: Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates

Hitting: Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros

Maybe. I don't know though. We have a decent rotation, not sure about best in the division when Milwaukee pretty much has three aces.

Cardinals with best hitting in the division is just wrong though. I'd have to give that to Milwaukee, as I think the Reds ballpark really influences their offensive numbers.

But I'm all for good projections for the Cubs!

 

[Jntg4]

OK, I just went to the article to read the whole thing, but it was Insider so I couldn't. But the preview mentioned this:

"While the Cubs finally have promising young talent in Tyler Colvin and Andrew Cashner, they still have old, overpaid talent in Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome. "

I thought it was odd that they didn't mention Castro is that but did mention Colvin and Cashner.

 

[poodski]

Maybe. I don't know though. We have a decent rotation, not sure about best in the division when Milwaukee pretty much has three aces.

Cardinals with best hitting in the division is just wrong though. I'd have to give that to Milwaukee, as I think the Reds ballpark really influences their offensive numbers.

But I'm all for good projections for the Cubs!

Eh the Brewers are pretty top heavy with their rotation. Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo are good but Wolf and Narveson are nothing special.

And as far as best hitting I am not sure how poor the Brewers offense is past the big three. Weeks is decent, McGehee is alright, but the other three are terrible.

Cardinals have a nice top 4, the other 4 are rather week , but Pujols/Holliday is the best two person tandem in baseball.

 

[Jntg4]

Eh the Brewers are pretty top heavy with their rotation. Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo are good but Wolf and Narveson are nothing special.

And as far as best hitting I am not sure how poor the Brewers offense is past the big three. Weeks is decent, McGehee is alright, but the other three are terrible.

Cardinals have a nice top 4, the other 4 are rather week , but Pujols/Holliday is the best two person tandem in baseball.

The Cards offense was middle-of-the-pack in the NL last year, and I'm not sure replacing Ludwick (through July anyway) with Berkman will change that. Theriot is an improvement offensively over Ryan, sure.

Oh, you said they were weak otherwise.

Anybody know how to find the Reds Team Road Offensive Stats?

 

[poodski]

The Cards offense was middle-of-the-pack in the NL last year, and I'm not sure replacing Ludwick (through July anyway) with Berkman will change that. Theriot is an improvement offensively over Ryan, sure.

Oh, you said they were weak otherwise.

Anybody know how to find the Reds Team Road Offensive Stats?

Cincinnati Reds Player Splits: Away - Baseball-Reference.com

 

[Jntg4]

So, this projection has us with the best staff in the division, PECOTA has us at 2nd in OPS now, and we probably have the best bullpen in the division. But PECOTS has us at 79 wins?

 

[poodski]

So, this projection has us with the best staff in the division, PECOTA has us at 2nd in OPS now, and we probably have the best bullpen in the division. But PECOTS has us at 79 wins?

Well these projections are using ZiPS. Plus you have to remember defense is part of this, and the Cubs aren't that good.

 

[poodski]

PECOTA also does not like our pitching. 800 RA is really high. I would think about 50 runs high.

I don't know an account for BP or I would check into it further.

 

[Jntg4]

Well these projections are using ZiPS. Plus you have to remember defense is part of this, and the Cubs aren't that good.

Sure, but I doubt we only get 79 wins... and I find it odd with people saying we have the best pitching, second best offense (and only back by .001 OPS), and a solid pen and putting us at 79 wins.

Our defense is bad, yes. But if Castro calms down, Barney starts, and Soriano isn't terrible, it could be decent with Fukudome, Byrd, and Pena.

That's 3 IF's though.