beckdawg
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Since people liked the pitching topic I figured I'd run through the hitting prospects.
Javier Baez - Is there really anything I need to say that hasn't already been said? Baez's .346 ISO over 240 PAs was ridiculous. How ridiculous? Over the past 8 years only 3 players in all of AA have had over .320 ISO and those are Paul Goldschmidt(.320), Giancarlo Stanton(.417), and Mike Moustakas(.340). For those unfamiliar, ISO is basically extra base hits divided by at bats. The idea being it gives you a good idea of someone's power potential by removing base hits. Goldschmidt hit 36 HRs this year. Stanton had a down year but the previous 2 years hit 34 and 37 HRs. Moustakas' ISO that year was a bit inflated because he hit .347 and the only other time he's ever hit over .300 even in minors was over 44 PAs in R. So realistically you can probably expect 35 HR power.
What's scary however is his walk and strikeout rates. He posted his best walk rate ever in AA at 7.9% which is promising not only because it's improving but because it's improving at higher levels. On the other hand, his strike out rate was 28.8% in AA which was his highest at any level with a decent amount of PAs. Fangraphs doesn't pitch f/x data at the minor league level so it's difficult to judge exactly what happened there. It's possible he's striking out more because he's taking more pitches in the zone. Why is this scary though? Not a lot of the top hitters profile well at those rates. You're looking more at someone like Trumbo at those rates(8.0%/27.1%). Soriano, Pedro Alvarez, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Moss are others who have that kind of power and similar walk/strikeout rates. If he can get closer to 10%/20% then he should be fine. Longoria has made that work for him as have others.
Kris Bryant - There's not a boat load of data on him yet. He has 238 PA's over R/A-/A/AFL. The AFL data is probably the best as it often has AA level players though pitching there often doesn't include your top tier pitchers and it is more of a offensive league than favoring pitching. I'm not going to go too in depth with him but his 15.2%/25.0% and 10.4%/22.1% BB/K rates are very promising. The numbers really do bear the comparisons people have made to Longoria. Though, Bryant may actually have more power. His ISO was .364 in the AFL, .338 in Boise and .386 in Daytona. Longoria never had more than .291 ISO at any level with 50+ PAs. Top end you're possibly looking at some where between Longoria and Cabrera.... which is scary good. I'm really not seeing much to worry about here. His K rate could be better but that does tend to go level off a bit over more PAs and it was his first professional season.
Albert Almora - I feel it's difficult to judge him at 19. His 6.3%/11.0% bb/k rates aren't bad especially when you consider the type of player he's likely to be. That is to say someone who puts the ball in play a lot. Low end you're looking at someone like Denard Span probably. If his power grows like some expect Coco Crisp comparisons aren't outlandish. Just comparing him to McCutchen at the same age/level he had roughly half as many HRs so realistically top end for power on Almora may be 15-20 HRs. So, I'd say he has the chance to be a good player but I don't really see superstar. That being said, I do feel Span and Crisp are largely underrated players by fans for what they give you.
Jorge Soler - He had 8.9%/16.1% bb/k rate at Daytona which is encouraging. Alex Rios might be a good comparison of what he could be. Andre Ethier wouldn't be a bad comparison either. His absolute top end might be Carlos Beltran levels but I'm not sure he develops enough power to reach peak Beltran levels. Before looking more deeply into the numbers I was some what skeptical especially considering he was a corner OFer. But having given it some more thought, the fact that he's putting the ball into play 75% of the time is a good sign as .300 is league average for balls in play. Add that to his pretty decent walk rate and you should have a good OBP player. I do wonder how much power he develops though
Arismendy Alcantara - He's actually the reason I wanted to write this. His AA season this year really pops out when you consider his position. He had 15 HRs and 31 steals. That sort of combo at 2B is pretty unheard of. Altuve, Kipnis, and Daniel Murphy were the only 2B to steal over 20 basses. If you expand that to include SS you're talking about Jean Segura, Elvis Andrus, Alexei Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Alcides Escobar and Ian Desmond. Of those, only Desmond, Segura, Kipnis and Murphy had more than 10 HRs. Murphy never hit more than 13 HRs at any level. Segura probably has a tad more speed(stole 37 bases 451 PAs vs 31 in 571 PAs) but less power(.110 ISO vs .180). Kipnis and Desmond might be the best comparisons but both reach AA later than Alcantara(1 year for Desmond 2 for Kipnis). If he turns out to be an above average defender it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up putting up higher WAR totals than Soler and Almora assuming everyone pans out.
Dan Vogelbach - He had 11.4%/15.2% bb/k rate in A last year to go along with 17 HRs. That's sort of an unusual combination for a 1B. The only 1B last year with greater than 10% walk rate and less than 20% k rate were Edwin Encarnacion, Prince Fielder, Rizzo, Votto and Freeman. Freeman isn't a great comparison because he doesn't have the same power and doesn't walk as much. Rizzo struck out more and had a bit more power at a similar age but had a worse average. Fielder had considerably more power. Fangraphs doesn't have Encarnacion's minor numbers and he developed kind of late so it's hard to compare him. Votto may be the best comparison. However, Votto had a better average and walked more. Looking back a little farther, some names that compare are Will Clark and Ryan Klesko but none of them are a "perfect" match.
Mike Olt - Looking at the numbers it's really surprising that Texas was unwilling to part with him before this year. I'm going off his breakthrough year of 2012 in AA where he had a 14.5%/24.0% bb/k rate. Since 1980 the list of players who were over 10% walk rate and 21% K rate at 3B isn't stellar. You're talking about Mark Reynolds, Russell Branyan, and Troy Glaus. The difference between Branyan/Reynolds and Glaus is a player who hits .230/.330 avg/obp and a player who hits .255/.360. Can Olt hit .250 in the majors? That' basically the difference between a piece in your long term plan and a journeymen type.
Christian Villanueva - Not going to beat around the bush here. I see him more as a role player type. His 6.3%/21.6% bb/k rate and other numbers is similar to guys like Ty Wiggington and Bill Hall. With the organizational depth here, it might be nice to deal him to a team wanting a cost controlled guy once he's ready for the majors. He is probably good enough to start some where but I don't think anyone will be thrilled about it.
Jeimer Candelario - Like Almora its a bit hard to project as he's 19. A quick look at a scouting report expects him to average power. So, when you add that to his 11.9%/15.4 % bb/k rate he becomes intriguing. But the range of players since 99 with less than 18% k rate and greater than 10% bb rate at 3b is all over the place. You have the Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, and Miggy Cabrera's of the world. You have Willie Aybar, Craig Counsel and Nick Punto's of the world. I'd like to believe he's some where between there if he pans out. Maybe 2006 Eric Chavez levels(22 HRs, .241/.351/.435)?
Eloy Jimenez - no stats on fangraphs as of yet and as a 16 year old he's best case 4-5 years away.
Gleyber Torres - no stats on fangraphs as of yet and as a 16 year old he's best case 4-5 years away.
Matt Szczur - Compares to Angel Pagan with less power, Denard Span with a tad more speed.
Josh Vitters - I've been saying it for awhile but I think he might win the LF job. In 100 PA last year at AAA he had 11.0%/19.0% with .295/.380/.511. The year before he had 6.6%/17.0% .304/.356/.513. This was PCL so that's some what inflated. However, if the 11% walk rate last year was for real I feel like it could be a major break through that leads to him being a useful player at the MLB level. Projections have him at 6.0%/20.8% with 20 HRs and .253/.305/.423. Believe it or not, if he meets those projections he'd be basically as good as Soriano was in LF minus a few HRs for the cubs(Soriano wasn't very good last year til he got to NY). If the 11% walk rate is for real you could be looking at someone in the .320-.330 OBP range which would be a big boost to what they got out of LF last year.
Gioskar Amaya - He's a lot more interesting if he can stay at C. At A last year he had a 8.1%/21.1% bb/k rate with .252/.329/.369. He can also steal 15-20 bases. So in that regard he might end up being a slightly worse Russell Martin. Brad Ausmus might be another fair comparison.
Yasiel Balaguert - 9.7%/26.0% .261/.331/.433 with 15ish HR potential in the OF. He's 20 and still in low A. Probably need to have a breakout season in the next year or two or may end up being a career minor league type.
Rubi Silva - 3.7%/20.2/% .284/.310/.483 with 15/15 potential. He's 24 and in AA. Not seeing a lot to love here. Maybe 4th/5th OF type if he had a breakthrough soonish.
Willson Contreras - 7.5%/19.1% .248/.320/.423 with 15-20 HR potential. He's a 21 year old C in A. Amaya is a year younger and may be the more interesting option. But, both are the top 2 C prospects at the moment so they may have back up C status in the next couple of years.
Jacob Hanneman - He had 74 PA's as a 22 year old in A-. There's not really enough data to say anything but 22 in A- isn't a great sign.
John Andreoli - He's mildly interesting. 9.3%/16.8% .289/.358/.398 in AA last year. He's basically got no power but 50+ SB speed. Considering the overall lack of elite speed he's something worth talking about. The next best guys you're talking 30 with Alcantara and maybe 20 with Almora. Brett Gardner comparisons aren't out of line.
Brett Jackson - I'm not seeing much to like. Even if you go back to highly touted years of 2010-2012 he basically had 10%/25% bb/k rate. The list of players since 1980 in the OF who fit that doesn't really match up with the type of player Jackson is other than B.J. Upton and Jordan Schafer. Unless he finds some way to get under 25% k rate and preferably under 20% I honestly think he's done. To make matters worse, last year he was at 31.8%. So, it's not getting better.
Shawon Dunston - His 2013 was pretty interesting. He had 12.6%/11.2% .290/.378/.358 in A- as a 20 year old. He has basically no power but could probably steal 30+ bases. He stole 12 in 223 PAs. If he manages to keep that walk/k rate up he could end up a good one. Since 1990 guys with an ISO of less than .150, walk rate greater than 10% and K rate less than 15% include Kenny Lofton, Rickey Henderson, Lenny Dykstra, and Tim Raines. There are some lessor known names as well but that list is pretty good.
Jae-Hoon Ha - 9.5%/18.1% .273/.352/.385 in AA in 2012. He split time between AA/AA last year making it hard to compile stuff. Doesn't look like more than a bench player to me.
Zeke DeVoss - mildly interesting for his speed(40+ SB ability) but he's 22 in A+ and hit .246. He does make up for it some with a 15.2% walk rate but probably needs to have a breakout season in order to get anywhere.
Summary
After Josh Vitters and Szczur the hitting prospects sort of fall off. Dunston as I mentioned is interesting but most of the rest just seem like guys nothing special. As for the top of the system, Baez seems like he could either be really good or not very good. Bryant seems like the closest thing to a sure thing. Almora and Soler seem like they could be good but not super stars. Alcantara might be underrated. Given his position and what he did at AA he might end up one of the top 2B in the league in the next couple of years. I have no idea what to make of Vogelbach compared to others. Olt doesn't feel like he has a ton of upside to me. After that it looks like borderline starters though I do sort of like Vitters and Szczur in the near term.
Javier Baez - Is there really anything I need to say that hasn't already been said? Baez's .346 ISO over 240 PAs was ridiculous. How ridiculous? Over the past 8 years only 3 players in all of AA have had over .320 ISO and those are Paul Goldschmidt(.320), Giancarlo Stanton(.417), and Mike Moustakas(.340). For those unfamiliar, ISO is basically extra base hits divided by at bats. The idea being it gives you a good idea of someone's power potential by removing base hits. Goldschmidt hit 36 HRs this year. Stanton had a down year but the previous 2 years hit 34 and 37 HRs. Moustakas' ISO that year was a bit inflated because he hit .347 and the only other time he's ever hit over .300 even in minors was over 44 PAs in R. So realistically you can probably expect 35 HR power.
What's scary however is his walk and strikeout rates. He posted his best walk rate ever in AA at 7.9% which is promising not only because it's improving but because it's improving at higher levels. On the other hand, his strike out rate was 28.8% in AA which was his highest at any level with a decent amount of PAs. Fangraphs doesn't pitch f/x data at the minor league level so it's difficult to judge exactly what happened there. It's possible he's striking out more because he's taking more pitches in the zone. Why is this scary though? Not a lot of the top hitters profile well at those rates. You're looking more at someone like Trumbo at those rates(8.0%/27.1%). Soriano, Pedro Alvarez, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Moss are others who have that kind of power and similar walk/strikeout rates. If he can get closer to 10%/20% then he should be fine. Longoria has made that work for him as have others.
Kris Bryant - There's not a boat load of data on him yet. He has 238 PA's over R/A-/A/AFL. The AFL data is probably the best as it often has AA level players though pitching there often doesn't include your top tier pitchers and it is more of a offensive league than favoring pitching. I'm not going to go too in depth with him but his 15.2%/25.0% and 10.4%/22.1% BB/K rates are very promising. The numbers really do bear the comparisons people have made to Longoria. Though, Bryant may actually have more power. His ISO was .364 in the AFL, .338 in Boise and .386 in Daytona. Longoria never had more than .291 ISO at any level with 50+ PAs. Top end you're possibly looking at some where between Longoria and Cabrera.... which is scary good. I'm really not seeing much to worry about here. His K rate could be better but that does tend to go level off a bit over more PAs and it was his first professional season.
Albert Almora - I feel it's difficult to judge him at 19. His 6.3%/11.0% bb/k rates aren't bad especially when you consider the type of player he's likely to be. That is to say someone who puts the ball in play a lot. Low end you're looking at someone like Denard Span probably. If his power grows like some expect Coco Crisp comparisons aren't outlandish. Just comparing him to McCutchen at the same age/level he had roughly half as many HRs so realistically top end for power on Almora may be 15-20 HRs. So, I'd say he has the chance to be a good player but I don't really see superstar. That being said, I do feel Span and Crisp are largely underrated players by fans for what they give you.
Jorge Soler - He had 8.9%/16.1% bb/k rate at Daytona which is encouraging. Alex Rios might be a good comparison of what he could be. Andre Ethier wouldn't be a bad comparison either. His absolute top end might be Carlos Beltran levels but I'm not sure he develops enough power to reach peak Beltran levels. Before looking more deeply into the numbers I was some what skeptical especially considering he was a corner OFer. But having given it some more thought, the fact that he's putting the ball into play 75% of the time is a good sign as .300 is league average for balls in play. Add that to his pretty decent walk rate and you should have a good OBP player. I do wonder how much power he develops though
Arismendy Alcantara - He's actually the reason I wanted to write this. His AA season this year really pops out when you consider his position. He had 15 HRs and 31 steals. That sort of combo at 2B is pretty unheard of. Altuve, Kipnis, and Daniel Murphy were the only 2B to steal over 20 basses. If you expand that to include SS you're talking about Jean Segura, Elvis Andrus, Alexei Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Alcides Escobar and Ian Desmond. Of those, only Desmond, Segura, Kipnis and Murphy had more than 10 HRs. Murphy never hit more than 13 HRs at any level. Segura probably has a tad more speed(stole 37 bases 451 PAs vs 31 in 571 PAs) but less power(.110 ISO vs .180). Kipnis and Desmond might be the best comparisons but both reach AA later than Alcantara(1 year for Desmond 2 for Kipnis). If he turns out to be an above average defender it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up putting up higher WAR totals than Soler and Almora assuming everyone pans out.
Dan Vogelbach - He had 11.4%/15.2% bb/k rate in A last year to go along with 17 HRs. That's sort of an unusual combination for a 1B. The only 1B last year with greater than 10% walk rate and less than 20% k rate were Edwin Encarnacion, Prince Fielder, Rizzo, Votto and Freeman. Freeman isn't a great comparison because he doesn't have the same power and doesn't walk as much. Rizzo struck out more and had a bit more power at a similar age but had a worse average. Fielder had considerably more power. Fangraphs doesn't have Encarnacion's minor numbers and he developed kind of late so it's hard to compare him. Votto may be the best comparison. However, Votto had a better average and walked more. Looking back a little farther, some names that compare are Will Clark and Ryan Klesko but none of them are a "perfect" match.
Mike Olt - Looking at the numbers it's really surprising that Texas was unwilling to part with him before this year. I'm going off his breakthrough year of 2012 in AA where he had a 14.5%/24.0% bb/k rate. Since 1980 the list of players who were over 10% walk rate and 21% K rate at 3B isn't stellar. You're talking about Mark Reynolds, Russell Branyan, and Troy Glaus. The difference between Branyan/Reynolds and Glaus is a player who hits .230/.330 avg/obp and a player who hits .255/.360. Can Olt hit .250 in the majors? That' basically the difference between a piece in your long term plan and a journeymen type.
Christian Villanueva - Not going to beat around the bush here. I see him more as a role player type. His 6.3%/21.6% bb/k rate and other numbers is similar to guys like Ty Wiggington and Bill Hall. With the organizational depth here, it might be nice to deal him to a team wanting a cost controlled guy once he's ready for the majors. He is probably good enough to start some where but I don't think anyone will be thrilled about it.
Jeimer Candelario - Like Almora its a bit hard to project as he's 19. A quick look at a scouting report expects him to average power. So, when you add that to his 11.9%/15.4 % bb/k rate he becomes intriguing. But the range of players since 99 with less than 18% k rate and greater than 10% bb rate at 3b is all over the place. You have the Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, and Miggy Cabrera's of the world. You have Willie Aybar, Craig Counsel and Nick Punto's of the world. I'd like to believe he's some where between there if he pans out. Maybe 2006 Eric Chavez levels(22 HRs, .241/.351/.435)?
Eloy Jimenez - no stats on fangraphs as of yet and as a 16 year old he's best case 4-5 years away.
Gleyber Torres - no stats on fangraphs as of yet and as a 16 year old he's best case 4-5 years away.
Matt Szczur - Compares to Angel Pagan with less power, Denard Span with a tad more speed.
Josh Vitters - I've been saying it for awhile but I think he might win the LF job. In 100 PA last year at AAA he had 11.0%/19.0% with .295/.380/.511. The year before he had 6.6%/17.0% .304/.356/.513. This was PCL so that's some what inflated. However, if the 11% walk rate last year was for real I feel like it could be a major break through that leads to him being a useful player at the MLB level. Projections have him at 6.0%/20.8% with 20 HRs and .253/.305/.423. Believe it or not, if he meets those projections he'd be basically as good as Soriano was in LF minus a few HRs for the cubs(Soriano wasn't very good last year til he got to NY). If the 11% walk rate is for real you could be looking at someone in the .320-.330 OBP range which would be a big boost to what they got out of LF last year.
Gioskar Amaya - He's a lot more interesting if he can stay at C. At A last year he had a 8.1%/21.1% bb/k rate with .252/.329/.369. He can also steal 15-20 bases. So in that regard he might end up being a slightly worse Russell Martin. Brad Ausmus might be another fair comparison.
Yasiel Balaguert - 9.7%/26.0% .261/.331/.433 with 15ish HR potential in the OF. He's 20 and still in low A. Probably need to have a breakout season in the next year or two or may end up being a career minor league type.
Rubi Silva - 3.7%/20.2/% .284/.310/.483 with 15/15 potential. He's 24 and in AA. Not seeing a lot to love here. Maybe 4th/5th OF type if he had a breakthrough soonish.
Willson Contreras - 7.5%/19.1% .248/.320/.423 with 15-20 HR potential. He's a 21 year old C in A. Amaya is a year younger and may be the more interesting option. But, both are the top 2 C prospects at the moment so they may have back up C status in the next couple of years.
Jacob Hanneman - He had 74 PA's as a 22 year old in A-. There's not really enough data to say anything but 22 in A- isn't a great sign.
John Andreoli - He's mildly interesting. 9.3%/16.8% .289/.358/.398 in AA last year. He's basically got no power but 50+ SB speed. Considering the overall lack of elite speed he's something worth talking about. The next best guys you're talking 30 with Alcantara and maybe 20 with Almora. Brett Gardner comparisons aren't out of line.
Brett Jackson - I'm not seeing much to like. Even if you go back to highly touted years of 2010-2012 he basically had 10%/25% bb/k rate. The list of players since 1980 in the OF who fit that doesn't really match up with the type of player Jackson is other than B.J. Upton and Jordan Schafer. Unless he finds some way to get under 25% k rate and preferably under 20% I honestly think he's done. To make matters worse, last year he was at 31.8%. So, it's not getting better.
Shawon Dunston - His 2013 was pretty interesting. He had 12.6%/11.2% .290/.378/.358 in A- as a 20 year old. He has basically no power but could probably steal 30+ bases. He stole 12 in 223 PAs. If he manages to keep that walk/k rate up he could end up a good one. Since 1990 guys with an ISO of less than .150, walk rate greater than 10% and K rate less than 15% include Kenny Lofton, Rickey Henderson, Lenny Dykstra, and Tim Raines. There are some lessor known names as well but that list is pretty good.
Jae-Hoon Ha - 9.5%/18.1% .273/.352/.385 in AA in 2012. He split time between AA/AA last year making it hard to compile stuff. Doesn't look like more than a bench player to me.
Zeke DeVoss - mildly interesting for his speed(40+ SB ability) but he's 22 in A+ and hit .246. He does make up for it some with a 15.2% walk rate but probably needs to have a breakout season in order to get anywhere.
Summary
After Josh Vitters and Szczur the hitting prospects sort of fall off. Dunston as I mentioned is interesting but most of the rest just seem like guys nothing special. As for the top of the system, Baez seems like he could either be really good or not very good. Bryant seems like the closest thing to a sure thing. Almora and Soler seem like they could be good but not super stars. Alcantara might be underrated. Given his position and what he did at AA he might end up one of the top 2B in the league in the next couple of years. I have no idea what to make of Vogelbach compared to others. Olt doesn't feel like he has a ton of upside to me. After that it looks like borderline starters though I do sort of like Vitters and Szczur in the near term.
