Evaluating cubs hitting prospects

[beckdawg]

In your opinion, say Shoulders makes it to the big leagues. Is he a 40 home run a year player at the ML level? Adam Dunn 2.0?

Nah, like I said I don't think he has that kind of power. I just probably clarify some of the names I've thrown around in this and the pitching topic were more examples of the types of players they were than stone cold locks to be the same player. Mark Reynolds might be a better comparison though he's a corner IF. Basically, I was suggesting Shoulders is a "three true outcomes" player which is to say he'll walk, strike out, or homer. If I had to guess, I'd suggest top end Shoulders probably is 25-30 HR power.

 

[SilenceS]

I forgot to summarize what another poster put up on another boards about Jason Parks 101 top prospect list. The Cubs will have 7 on the list. Tied for 2nd most in the league. Twins are 1 with 8 prospects. Baez will be in the top 5. 3 of the Cubs big 4 will be in the top 25.

My guess for order
Baez
Bryant
Almora
Edwards
Soler
Alcantara
Pierce Johnson

With Volgy somewhere in the top 150

 

[dabynsky]

I forgot to summarize what another poster put up on another boards about Jason Parks 101 top prospect list. The Cubs will have 7 on the list. Tied for 2nd most in the league. Twins are 1 with 8 prospects. Baez will be in the top 5. 3 of the Cubs big 4 will be in the top 25.

My guess for order
Baez
Bryant
Almora
Edwards
Soler
Alcantara
Pierce Johnson

With Volgy somewhere in the top 150

I would guess that BP has Soler and Edwards flipped. Jason Parks has been amongst the most critical of the prospect guys on Edwards chances of sticking in the rotation, and so I would expect to see him much lower than the BA list.

 

[2323]

. What's scary however is his walk and strikeout rates. He posted his best walk rate ever in AA at 7.9% which is promising not only because it's improving but because it's improving at higher levels. On the other hand, his strike out rate was 28.8% in AA which was his highest at any level with a decent amount of PAs. Fangraphs doesn't pitch f/x data at the minor league level so it's difficult to judge exactly what happened there. It's possible he's striking out more because he's taking more pitches in the zone. Why is this scary though? Not a lot of the top hitters profile well at those rates. You're looking more at someone like Trumbo at those rates(8.0%/27.1%). Soriano, Pedro Alvarez, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Moss are others who have that kind of power and similar walk/strikeout rates. If he can get closer to 10%/20% then he should be fine. Longoria has made that work for him as have others.

Is it possible that his high strike outs is due to the fact that minor league pitching isn't around the strike zone as much as you see in the majors. And you combine that with Baez being aggressive, you'll get a lot of strikeouts. Some hitters actually do better against major league pitching because they're around the plate more.

 

[beckdawg]

Is it possible that his high strike outs is due to the fact that minor league pitching isn't around the strike zone as much as you see in the majors. And you combine that with Baez being aggressive, you'll get a lot of strikeouts. Some hitters actually do better against major league pitching because they're around the plate more.

Perhaps but generally speaking if you're looking for something to be worried about bad k%/bb% are typically what you find on most prospects who bust. I'm not saying Baez is going to bust but contact is kind of underrated as a skill set. The thing to remember is that the league average on balls in play is around .300. So, the more balls you're putting into play the better. If that comes at the cost of walks like with say Castro it is kind of evened out. On the other hand, if you have low k% and decent bb% you're likely to have good stats. You combine that with power and you get a monster. Pujols who's arguably the best hitter of this generation has a career 12.5%/9.8% bb%/k%. Miguel Cabrera who would probably be the second person in that discussion is 11.2%/16.9%. Bonds before they started walking him like crazy late in his career was around 15-20%/12.2%. A-rod is 10.9%/18.3%.

So, to see Baez at sub-10% walk rate and higher than 23% K rate is scary. Baez is often compared to Sheffield but the difference is Sheffield had a career 13.5%/10.7% bb%/k%. I know fans want him in the majors yesterday but it honestly might be better for him to hang around another year or two to work on his pitch selection/contact. If it were just a case of high k rate you could probably chalk it up to being a young hitter and it will likely go down over time. This is the case with Bryant. But Baez isn't walking enough either which sort of tells you there may be an issue with his approach to at bats.

 

[2323]

Perhaps but generally speaking if you're looking for something to be worried about bad k%/bb% are typically what you find on most prospects who bust. I'm not saying Baez is going to bust but contact is kind of underrated as a skill set. The thing to remember is that the league average on balls in play is around .300. So, the more balls you're putting into play the better. If that comes at the cost of walks like with say Castro it is kind of evened out. On the other hand, if you have low k% and decent bb% you're likely to have good stats. You combine that with power and you get a monster. Pujols who's arguably the best hitter of this generation has a career 12.5%/9.8% bb%/k%. Miguel Cabrera who would probably be the second person in that discussion is 11.2%/16.9%. Bonds before they started walking him like crazy late in his career was around 15-20%/12.2%. A-rod is 10.9%/18.3%.

So, to see Baez at sub-10% walk rate and higher than 23% K rate is scary. Baez is often compared to Sheffield but the difference is Sheffield had a career 13.5%/10.7% bb%/k%. I know fans want him in the majors yesterday but it honestly might be better for him to hang around another year or two to work on his pitch selection/contact. If it were just a case of high k rate you could probably chalk it up to being a young hitter and it will likely go down over time. This is the case with Bryant. But Baez isn't walking enough either which sort of tells you there may be an issue with his approach to at bats.

I wonder what his pitches per at bat are. If it's low, part of it might be that he swings at bad pitches early in his at bats putting him in bad pitch counts.

 

[SilenceS]

Perhaps but generally speaking if you're looking for something to be worried about bad k%/bb% are typically what you find on most prospects who bust. I'm not saying Baez is going to bust but contact is kind of underrated as a skill set. The thing to remember is that the league average on balls in play is around .300. So, the more balls you're putting into play the better. If that comes at the cost of walks like with say Castro it is kind of evened out. On the other hand, if you have low k% and decent bb% you're likely to have good stats. You combine that with power and you get a monster. Pujols who's arguably the best hitter of this generation has a career 12.5%/9.8% bb%/k%. Miguel Cabrera who would probably be the second person in that discussion is 11.2%/16.9%. Bonds before they started walking him like crazy late in his career was around 15-20%/12.2%. A-rod is 10.9%/18.3%.

So, to see Baez at sub-10% walk rate and higher than 23% K rate is scary. Baez is often compared to Sheffield but the difference is Sheffield had a career 13.5%/10.7% bb%/k%. I know fans want him in the majors yesterday but it honestly might be better for him to hang around another year or two to work on his pitch selection/contact. If it were just a case of high k rate you could probably chalk it up to being a young hitter and it will likely go down over time. This is the case with Bryant. But Baez isn't walking enough either which sort of tells you there may be an issue with his approach to at bats.

The minors won't make a difference. Scouts are pretty much in agreement that AAA may challenge him for the first month then he will take. They say he is coming up because major league pitching is the only thing left they have to see him against. Baez is a player that numbers will never tell the whole story. His bat speed is his game changer. Also he was compare to Sheffield cause of bat speed and was a ss coming out of Florida. His bat speed is something you once in a generation. He is absolutely a boom or bust but the major leagues is the only place you are going to find out

 

[SilenceS]

I wonder what his pitches per at bat are. If it's low, part of it might be that he swings at bad pitches early in his at bats putting him in bad pitch counts.

Pitches per at bat is not a good measure for him. He hits the ball so hard that babip will always be higher. He can get away with hitting not hitter pitches because he makes such hard contact. His out are loud outs. Watch some video. His bat speed is extremely noticeable. Hear the ball come off the bat. I feel horrible for the ball. Dale sveum said he has seen people hit a ball as hard but never harder then baez

 

[patg006]

Nah, like I said I don't think he has that kind of power. I just probably clarify some of the names I've thrown around in this and the pitching topic were more examples of the types of players they were than stone cold locks to be the same player. Mark Reynolds might be a better comparison though he's a corner IF. Basically, I was suggesting Shoulders is a "three true outcomes" player which is to say he'll walk, strike out, or homer. If I had to guess, I'd suggest top end Shoulders probably is 25-30 HR power.

Never mind then, I thought he had the 40-50 HR power Dunn has, then I'd push for him more. Thanks for the reply.

Now I agree he falls in with the turds.

 

[2323]

Pitches per at bat is not a good measure for him. He hits the ball so hard that babip will always be higher. He can get away with hitting not hitter pitches because he makes such hard contact. His out are loud outs. Watch some video. His bat speed is extremely noticeable. Hear the ball come off the bat. I feel horrible for the ball. Dale sveum said he has seen people hit a ball as hard but never harder then baez

I was just saying that because it might help answer why he strikes out so much. If it's because he's aggressive or undisciplined and swings at bad pitches in the beginning of at bats, then the fix might be to simply layoff some pitches early in at bats so he can get more favorable counts. If he's already doing this and has high pitches per at bat, then it pitch recognition becomes a more prominent issue.

But, yes, I've seen his swing and his bat speed is pretty incredible. Because the guy has unique talents, it may be problematic using the typical metrics. You may be talking about a guy who might generate a lot offense even with fewer balls put in play.

Btw, the guy just turned 21. Last season would have been his second season in college. If he was in college, like a lot of prospects at this point in their lives, he sees more bad pitching and he's not nearly as scrutinized.

 

[SilenceS]

I was just saying that because it might help answer why he strikes out so much. If it's because he's aggressive or undisciplined and swings at bad pitches in the beginning of at bats, then the fix might be to simply layoff some pitches early in at bats so he can get more favorable counts. If he's already doing this and has high pitches per at bat, then it pitch recognition becomes a more prominent issue.

But, yes, I've seen his swing and his bat speed is pretty incredible. Because the guy has unique talents, it may be problematic using the typical metrics. You may be talking about a guy who might generate a lot offense even with fewer balls put in play.

Btw, the guy just turned 21. Last season would have been his second season in college. If he was in college, like a lot of prospects at this point in their lives, he sees more bad pitching and he's not nearly as scrutinized.

He is aggressive by nature. He is the type of guy you dont want to change because his gifts are so great. He will always strike out, but his BABIP and walk ratio became good enough that even if he struck a 150 plus a year. He could still put a tremendous line. I watch film on all our prospects and Baez stands out not by a little but by a lot. His swing is violent, yet smooth. He looks to hit but he has learned control. My point is minors mean nothing with him no more. Majors is his test and we will find out. He is not type of player if you slowed down his progress he would learn.

 

[CSF77]

I wouldn't over think things. Baez needs to prove he can hit AAA pitching in April. Trying to look much deeper is pointless. If he crushes Iowa he will be up like Rizzo was. If he struggles he will not. It is simple as that.

 

[SilenceS]

I wouldn't over think things. Baez needs to prove he can hit AAA pitching in April. Trying to look much deeper is pointless. If he crushes Iowa he will be up like Rizzo was. If he struggles he will not. It is simple as that.

Well, no duh but he was asking more questions then that.

 

[CSF77]

Well, no duh but he was asking more questions then that.

The point is we can speculate all we want an d use this or that number. In the end it is going to be his performance this year that dictates his promotion.

It is fine though. The Cubs haven't't been doing squat this off season and creates idle chat I guess.