Fangraphs National League Projection's for 2015

[Boobaby1]

National League

Central

1.St. Louis Cardinals – 87-75
2.Pittsburgh Pirates – 86-76
3.Chicago Cubs – 83-79
4.Milwaukee Brewers – 77-85
5.Cincinnati Reds – 75-87

East

1.Washington Nationals – 87-75
2.Miami Marlins – 81-81
3.New York Mets – 79-83
4.Atlanta Braves – 73-89
5.Philadelphia Phillies – 69-93

West

1.Los Angeles Dodgers – 91-71
2.San Francisco Giants – 83-79
3.San Diego Padres – 78-84
4.Colorado Rockies – 78-84
5.Arizona Diamondbacks – 74-88


Based on the Steamer Projections posted on FanGraphs, the Cubs could have its first winning record since the 2009 squad led by Lou Piniella ended the year with an 83-78 mark, the last time the franchise finished above .500.

FanGraphs’ compiled the data from the Steamer projections and team depth charts and the Cubs record for 2015 ends up at 83-79, third place in the National League Central Division, four games behind the Cardinals and tied with the San Francisco Giants for the second wild card spot.

As FanGraphs pointed out, the projections will change as Opening Night approaches and the 25-man rosters become easier to predict. Free agents are still available and trades will still be made. :thinking:

 

[brett05]

Steamers is heavily optimistic calling the Cubs the fifth best team in the NL

 

[SilenceS]

Steamers is heavily optimistic calling the Cubs the fifth best team in the NL

It is a complete numbers projection based on a ton of different variables. It has no opinion in it. It is a complex formula that takes into account more things then I care to list. In the end, it means very little because it just paper but steamer has gotten better at predicting every year. MLB teams use it now along with fangraphs.

 

[brett05]

It is a complete numbers projection based on a ton of different variables. It has no opinion in it. It is a complex formula that takes into account more things then I care to list. In the end, it means very little because it just paper but steamer has gotten better at predicting every year. MLB teams use it now along with fangraphs.

If a formula places the Cubs fifth this year than the formula is broken. And you know that. Not that they couldn't be fifth, but come on now.

 

[JosMin]

Hmmm, a few games off with the Cubs projection since they're gonna' go 162-0.

:fap:

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If a formula places the Cubs fifth this year than the formula is broken. And you know that. Not that they couldn't be fifth, but come on now.

I actually think the Cubs number is about right, what I question is some of the other numbers, especially in the NL West, being way low. Still none of this means much with players like Scherzer, Shields and even potential trades of guys like Hamels and Zimmermann possibly still to come. Any of those guys could be a game changer for any of those teams.

 

[brett05]

Cubs being 4 behind the Nationals/Cards and 8 behind the Dodgers is just a bad paper formula if you ask me

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Cubs being 4 behind the Nationals/Cards and 8 behind the Dodgers is just a bad paper formula if you ask me

Got to agree with this.

I hope their projections are accurate but I'm not betting on it.

 

[brett05]

Got to agree with this.

I hope their projections are accurate but I'm not betting on it.

And that is very fair.

 

[chibears55]

Seeing now their 4 additions to the positional side in Montero Ross Lastella and Denorfia to help the kids, im not too confidence in what their going to get offensively. ..
They really cant afford these kids to struggle too much especially since their bench is basically crap..

Im looking realistically now at 70-75 wins unless the core 4 kids can stay afloat for the most part of the year...

 

[DewsSox79]

Seeing now their 4 additions to the positional side in Montero Ross Lastella and Denorfia to help the kids, im not too confidence in what their going to get offensively. ..
They really cant afford these kids to struggle too much especially since their bench is basically crap..

Im looking realistically now at 70-75 wins unless the core 4 kids can stay afloat for the most part of the year...

Right after Lester was signed it was fans going crazy saying they will contend in 2015.

It is just a guess and it has been for me all along that this year was the "beta test" year for what you have with the prospects. They get their MLB experience and the ones who suck will be like brett Jackson and josh Vitter and the ones who are good will get some decent veteran players in 2016 that aren't like david ross. 2015 is a trial year.

 

[chibears55]

Right after Lester was signed it was fans going crazy saying they will contend in 2015.

It is just a guess and it has been for me all along that this year was the "beta test" year for what you have with the prospects. They get their MLB experience and the ones who suck will be like brett Jackson and josh Vitter and the ones who are good will get some decent veteran players in 2016 that aren't like david ross. 2015 is a trial year.

Im beginning to believe that exactly what 2015 is going to be , especially after the crap they picked up..

All the talk about adding veteran bats to help ease the kids along and provide offensive stability if they struggle was just talk.. Lastella and Denorfia are really garbage bin pick ups no matter how you suger coat it... and Ross was just to appease lester...

 

[beckdawg]

I want to wait until i see all the roster moves before I make any predictions but I've sort of had 80 wins pegged as a good mark so 83 might be a tad high.

 

[beckdawg]

[video=youtube;ADXs2C4Vmho]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADXs2C4Vmho[/video]

 

[Parade_Rain]

First off, one has to look at how many wins the Cubs finished with last season then add at least 5 wins for the addition of Maddon and add a few more wins for the addition of Lester. Is Bryant better than Olt? I don't see how the formula is broken. It looks to be spot on. Many of us don't believe the Cubs will be WS contenders yet, but are on record that we expect them to be in the race for the second WC spot. Lo and behold, that's where this list puts them.

 

[SilenceS]

The whole big bat thing was made up on the internet. I posted this awhile back. The Cubs arent going to block these kids. They are going to see if they fail or succeed. You are looking at Schwarber, Russell, CJ Edwards, and Almora all ready within a year or a year and a half. Almora will most likely be end of next season. They stocked this farm this way for a reason. To go sign a bat for a couple of years makes no sense until you know what you have. Dews is correct about this season. I think it was pretty obvious from the start. The Cubs could contend for a 2nd wildcard, but thats about as far as I can go.

 

[brett05]

First off, one has to look at how many wins the Cubs finished with last season then add at least 5 wins for the addition of Maddon and add a few more wins for the addition of Lester. Is Bryant better than Olt? I don't see how the formula is broken. It looks to be spot on. Many of us don't believe the Cubs will be WS contenders yet, but are on record that we expect them to be in the race for the second WC spot. Lo and behold, that's where this list puts them.

Since managers don't win games you are saying Reteria was a loser manager.

Secondly win totals don't work the way you propose

The formula is broken

 

[Parade_Rain]

Since managers don't win games you are saying Reteria was a loser manager.

If Renteria had the potential to be a winning manager, why did Epstein go hard after Maddon?

Secondly win totals don't work the way you propose

I'm not proposing the games should actually be played on paper.

The formula is broken

It's not likely as broken as you claim it to be. Good statisticians always look to make their formulas more accurate. Until final rosters are set, it's hard to be completely accurate, however, 2014 season was hopefully the last time the Cubs would be obvious sellers at the deadline. That means that Theo expects to be competing in late July. That means they are in the hunt for the second wildcard spot. It doesn't mean they will get it. It just means they will likely be competitive this season.

 

[JZsportsfan]

The NL is on the down swing right now. Each division has at least 2 teams in a clear rebuild mode. Then you got the Cubs, Padres, and Marlins. Three teams that could make some sort of a run and win 85 games, or they could win 70 games. I'd almost put the Giants and Pirates in that same category as well. So saying that the Cubs are the 5th best team isn't as big of a stretch as some say.

 

[brett05]

If Renteria had the potential to be a winning manager, why did Epstein go hard after Maddon?

I'm not proposing the games should actually be played on paper.

It's not likely as broken as you claim it to be. Good statisticians always look to make their formulas more accurate. Until final rosters are set, it's hard to be completely accurate, however, 2014 season was hopefully the last time the Cubs would be obvious sellers at the deadline. That means that Theo expects to be competing in late July. That means they are in the hunt for the second wildcard spot. It doesn't mean they will get it. It just means they will likely be competitive this season.

He wanted better is why.

Never said you were proposing paper.

Sorry but there is no way the formula is close

That said they could be in contention for a wc especially if it styles in around 81 wins