First half thoughts

[Rory Sparrow]

Schwarber has been a disappoinment this year. Countered by Heyward's better season.

Interesting logic.

Schwarber was projected to be the next Babe Ruth, or at the very least a prime Greg Luzinski. Heyward's 2016 OPS+ of 68 was historically terrible. He's crawled back with the benefit of a juiced ball to become a league average hitter while still being massively overpaid (I think he's the 3rd highest OF contract...Trout, Harper, Heyward).

Schwarber was supposed to be a better hitter than Heyward ever was in ATL/STL. Heyward's current OPS+ of 109 is worse than his season in STL and at the bottom end of his seasons in ATL. Yet Heyward "counters" Schwarber. Got it.

 

[DrGonzo]

47-43, and being in a tough division doesn't count for much when they are dropping series to poor teams.

There is enough talent to make a little noise in October if the top three guys in the rotation stay healthy/fresh enough.

I just don't see any NL team getting past the Dodgers this year.

 

[TL1961]

Thoughts?
Enjoy your last year as the best baseball team in Chicago!

If the lesser team in town takes over as the more talented, and there’s nobody there to see it, dit it really happen?

 

[TL1961]

Interesting logic.

Schwarber was projected to be the next Babe Ruth, or at the very least a prime Greg Luzinski. Heyward's 2016 OPS+ of 68 was historically terrible. He's crawled back with the benefit of a juiced ball to become a league average hitter while still being massively overpaid (I think he's the 3rd highest OF contract...Trout, Harper, Heyward).

Schwarber was supposed to be a better hitter than Heyward ever was in ATL/STL. Heyward's current OPS+ of 109 is worse than his season in STL and at the bottom end of his seasons in ATL. Yet Heyward "counters" Schwarber. Got it.

I guess if you truly expect a young player to be the equivalent of Babe Ruth, it shouldn’t come as a surprise when he fails to meet your expectations.

But those who expected that seem genuinely let down.

 

[SilenceS]

Interesting logic.

Schwarber was projected to be the next Babe Ruth, or at the very least a prime Greg Luzinski. Heyward's 2016 OPS+ of 68 was historically terrible. He's crawled back with the benefit of a juiced ball to become a league average hitter while still being massively overpaid (I think he's the 3rd highest OF contract...Trout, Harper, Heyward).

Schwarber was supposed to be a better hitter than Heyward ever was in ATL/STL. Heyward's current OPS+ of 109 is worse than his season in STL and at the bottom end of his seasons in ATL. Yet Heyward "counters" Schwarber. Got it.

A juiced ball made him a league average hitter? I didnt know he was playing with a different ball from the rest of the majors.

 

[CSF77]

It was based off of 2018-2019. If you want to toss in other uncontrollable variables like contract and production from 5 years ago. Plus nonsensical expectations sure they will always come up short.

I tried to place in a realistic window. Are they better than last year. That is something the players can control

 

[CSF77]

The juiced ball maybe a factor. But why has Almora taken a dive in value?

 

[TL1961]

98 wRC+ 17 lower than last year.

Heyward is at 110 which is 10 over last year. Those 2 are pretty much canceling each other out.

I'm not too concerned with the O here.

Schwarber: 115 -> 98 (-17)
Baez: 131-> 123 (-8)
Bryant: 125->148 (+23)
Rizzo: 125->135 (+10)
Contreras: 100->141(+41)
Heyward: 99->110 (+11)
Almora: 89->75 (-14)
Russell: 80->85 (+5)

over all +51 wRC+ from last year.

But the biggest problem is they can't afford to start 3 guys under 100. So IMO Schwarber has solid trade weight. He is not making that much and has raw power.

Now that report that they were looking into David Peralta. I think he is on the DL but this makes a interesting trade scenario.

It seems that the Backs are looking to get younger. So looking them over I'm guessing that they would love to move Greinke. He is locked in at 35mil til 2021.

So I was thinking why not Greinke and Peralta. Now the what for part.

Davis will be on A3 and 10Mil would be a good guess for 2020. So ideally you want to move 2 starter types.

I was thinking Q and Chatwood. That off sets 23Mil of the 45mil that they will take on. Then send over Schwarber I'm guessing he will make 4 mil. If Azl sends cash then they get 2 high end prospects. if not I would say 1 20-30 type.

That way the Cubs get a legit ace type. They have the option of giving a deal to Hamels as a legit #2 and Hendricks becomes the 3. Lester and Darvish become solid back of the rotation.

D-Backs may do this just to get Zach off the books. Cubs need a legit TOR and that rotation all of a sudden becomes one of the best in the league. If Azl sends over 10 mil it would be worth sending them Alzolay and Nico in return.

You propose trading away several inexpensive highly considered prospects, including two starters, for a $35 million per year pitcher in his 30’s?

And then retaining Cole Hamels?

We’d be spending more on our rotation next year than most teams do on the entire roster, and three would be mid-thirties

We’d literally have no players mlb ready or close left in milb.

Yikes!

Do you just spend all night dreaming new scenarios?

 

[TL1961]

So, Schwarber is at 98 WRC+, barely below average in half a season, but we cannot have three under 100 in the lineup, so he gets traded for an injured Peralta?

Peralta’s ceiling is not far above where Schwarber is now, and that current level is costing Schwarber his job.

SMH

 

[CSF77]

No I see it as they are in a working window. I expect Theo to move on after his contract and the new team to rip it apart.

But with in that window the goal is WS not budget.

 

[CSF77]

So, Schwarber is at 98 WRC+, barely below average in half a season, but we cannot have three under 100 in the lineup, so he gets traded for an injured Peralta?

Peralta’s ceiling is not far above where Schwarber is now, and that current level is costing Schwarber his job.

SMH

That report was in MLTR. Not my scenerio. They are talking about him with Azl.

 

[SilenceS]

The juiced ball maybe a factor. But why has Almora taken a dive in value?

The juice ball doesnt matter for league average. Its why it is called league average. He has 10% better than league average at the plate. Everyone is using the same ball.

 

[CSF77]

The juice ball doesnt matter for league average. Its why it is called league average. He has 10% better than league average at the plate. Everyone is using the same ball.

It feels cherry picking.

Heyward is benifiting from a juice.

But Baez is 7 wRC+ worse.
Contreras +41 juice...
But Schwarber -17

Players go up and down. That is just the game. The ball is a factor. But the hitter still has to hit it true.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I guess if you truly expect a young player to be the equivalent of Babe Ruth, it shouldn’t come as a surprise when he fails to meet your expectations.

But those who expected that seem genuinely let down.

Cool. Glad we can agree that Schwarber's 2019 numbers are not the same as Babe Ruth's 1927 numbers. I can never tell if you are doing schtick, or if you are really this incapable of discussing baseball.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

A juiced ball made him a league average hitter? I didnt know he was playing with a different ball from the rest of the majors.

Heyward's BA and OBP are identical to last year's...his HRs have doubled which has led to the corresponding uptick in OPS+. I know HRs are easier to get in 2019, but unless every MLB hitter is seeing their HR total double while their OBP remains static, then I'm guessing Heyward is seeing more of a benefit from the juiced ball.

Did PEDs make Sammy Sosa a better hitter than league average? I thought if everyone in the MLB was using PEDs, then....

 

[SilenceS]

Heyward's BA and OBP are identical to last year's...his HRs have doubled which has led to the corresponding uptick in OPS+. I know HRs are easier to get in 2019, but unless every MLB hitter is seeing their HR total double while their OBP remains static, then I'm guessing Heyward is seeing more of a benefit from the juiced ball.

Did PEDs make Sammy Sosa a better hitter than league average? I thought if everyone in the MLB was using PEDs, then....

Lol what a tremendously dumb comment. League average is different every year. He is 10% than this years league average. He isnt benefitting more from a baseball than other guys because everyone is playing with the same baseball. You didnt think it out and now you are trying to make some shitty correlation to Sammy Sosa. Not everyone was on stroids. Everyone is playing with the same ball.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

League average is different every year.

Thanks for the heads up. You completely glossed over the point of my posting, and instead focused on the minutia.

Do you think that Heyward performing better in 2019 but still massively underperforming to his contract "counters" Schwarber's subpar 2019 performance? I think Heyward and Schwarber are both big reasons why the Cubs aren't really living up to expectations this year. Would you agree or disagree?

 

[CSF77]

Thanks for the heads up. You completely glossed over the point of my posting, and instead focused on the minutia.

Do you think that Heyward performing better in 2019 but still massively underperforming to his contract "counters" Schwarber's subpar 2019 performance? I think Heyward and Schwarber are both big reasons why the Cubs aren't really living up to expectations this year. Would you agree or disagree?

Disagree. They are failing with RISP. Schwarber hitting #1 limits his PA's there.

What Joe did against Giolito was a sound tactic. Bottom of the order go walk heavy hitters and when the line up turns over it creates RBI opertunites.

In NL play it tends to be flawed unless the pitchers are just moving runners up.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Disagree. They are failing with RISP. Schwarber hitting #1 limits his PA's there.

What Joe did against Giolito was a sound tactic. Bottom of the order go walk heavy hitters and when the line up turns over it creates RBI opertunites.

In NL play it tends to be flawed unless the pitchers are just moving runners up.

Huh? This is your statement which I responded to.

Schwarber has been a disappoinment this year. Countered by Heyward's better season.

 

[CSF77]

Huh? This is your statement which I responded to.

And you said

I think Heyward and Schwarber are both big reasons why the Cubs aren't really living up to expectations this year. Would you agree or disagree?

And I countered with RISP was the core problem this year and Schwarber hitting #1 Limits his opertunity to hit in those situations.

That is why you were wrong.

But the day that he lit up was when the bottom of the order was walk happy. Check the box score that game. Next game has the walk phobia Almora at the bottom and the top was quiet.

So it was a sound move and it should be looked into more with high BB% Hitters batting 7-9 in general. The pitcher tends to mess it up some but bunting a guy over into scoring position doesn't suck.