dentfan
No gods! No Masters!
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New Prospect Rankings Series: I_dont_watch_film’s WR Prospect Rankings - 2024 Prospects Pre-Combine
Discussion
For those who have been following along, I've spent 100s of hours conducting a data analysis on WR prospects from 2018-2023 to see what traits and attributes are most correlated with WR success of the last 6 years and used it to build out a model for WR prospect rankings.
I posted by 2018-2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 rankings, which can be found here: 2018-2020 2021 2022 2023
Ultimately, my goal of this was to set on a path to conduct the most comprehensive data analysis in my power when looking back at WR prospects in an attempt to predict future WR prospects with a relative high success rate. I built out a model in order to do so that took into consideration a total of 62 variables when calculating a prospects score. Without going into details, a prospect was measured by calculating the following consolidated metrics (each of which have distinct and unique variables to calculate their score):
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- Production Score
- Efficiency Score
- Multi-Threat Score (how did they perform as a deep threat, YAC, broken tackles, contested catches, etc.)
- Age
- Film Grade (this is a metric that I actually outscoure and collected separately)
- Athletic Score
Things of Note
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- Marvin Harrison Jr. is as good as advertised any which way you want to look at the data. If there's one thing he "lacks" it's YAC #s. He's not the YAC guy as some of the top elite WRs, but that may not necessarily be a limitation of his. It could instead be opportunity driven given the type of targets he was consistently getting at OSU.
- You may have heard this many times before, but Malik Nabers really is closer to Marvin Harrison Jr. than he is to the #3 WR prospect in this year's draft (the consensus says Rome Odunze). He's a phenomenal all-around WR and is currently projected as the #5 over WR prospect by the model dating back to 2018.
- Troy Franklin is that dude. He is an advanced data analytics darling and has a better argument to be the 3rd best WR prospect in this year's class than Rome Odunze being the 2nd best WR prospect. If he ends up with 1st round draft capital, I would put him ahead of Odunze as a fantasy prospect. Currently, he's projected in the 2nd round which puts him as the 4th best WR prospect, but he's the 3rd best prospect based on pure prospect score. It's genuinely shocking he's not getting more hype than he currently is. However, don't be surprised if Troy Franklin starts getting 1st round hype the closer we get to the draft.
- There might not be a "Puka Nacua" in the draft this year, but there's plenty of late-round prospects with lots of hit potential. Guys to look out for: Zakhari Franklin, Malachi Corley (absurd YAC numbers - Deebo light?), Jacob Cowing, and Joshua Cephus are all prospects that graded out well in the model but are projected 3rd round or later.
https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1aywmu4
He has Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas, jr. at 4&5, respectively. I know my man Kollman doesn’t get the Franklin love, but it isn’t just me. Anyway, the chart won’t copy and paste here, so use the Reddit link to go check it out.