For the data dudes: WR rankings based on data

[dentfan]

New Prospect Rankings Series: I_dont_watch_film’s WR Prospect Rankings - 2024 Prospects Pre-Combine​

Discussion
For those who have been following along, I've spent 100s of hours conducting a data analysis on WR prospects from 2018-2023 to see what traits and attributes are most correlated with WR success of the last 6 years and used it to build out a model for WR prospect rankings.
I posted by 2018-2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 rankings, which can be found here: 2018-2020 2021 2022 2023
Ultimately, my goal of this was to set on a path to conduct the most comprehensive data analysis in my power when looking back at WR prospects in an attempt to predict future WR prospects with a relative high success rate. I built out a model in order to do so that took into consideration a total of 62 variables when calculating a prospects score. Without going into details, a prospect was measured by calculating the following consolidated metrics (each of which have distinct and unique variables to calculate their score):

• Production Score
• Efficiency Score
• Multi-Threat Score (how did they perform as a deep threat, YAC, broken tackles, contested catches, etc.)
• Age
• Film Grade (this is a metric that I actually outscoure and collected separately)
• Athletic Score

…



Things of Note

• Marvin Harrison Jr. is as good as advertised any which way you want to look at the data. If there's one thing he "lacks" it's YAC #s. He's not the YAC guy as some of the top elite WRs, but that may not necessarily be a limitation of his. It could instead be opportunity driven given the type of targets he was consistently getting at OSU.
• You may have heard this many times before, but Malik Nabers really is closer to Marvin Harrison Jr. than he is to the #3 WR prospect in this year's draft (the consensus says Rome Odunze). He's a phenomenal all-around WR and is currently projected as the #5 over WR prospect by the model dating back to 2018.
• Troy Franklin is that dude. He is an advanced data analytics darling and has a better argument to be the 3rd best WR prospect in this year's class than Rome Odunze being the 2nd best WR prospect. If he ends up with 1st round draft capital, I would put him ahead of Odunze as a fantasy prospect. Currently, he's projected in the 2nd round which puts him as the 4th best WR prospect, but he's the 3rd best prospect based on pure prospect score. It's genuinely shocking he's not getting more hype than he currently is. However, don't be surprised if Troy Franklin starts getting 1st round hype the closer we get to the draft.
• There might not be a "Puka Nacua" in the draft this year, but there's plenty of late-round prospects with lots of hit potential. Guys to look out for: Zakhari Franklin, Malachi Corley (absurd YAC numbers - Deebo light?), Jacob Cowing, and Joshua Cephus are all prospects that graded out well in the model but are projected 3rd round or later.

…

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1aywmu4
He has Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas, jr. at 4&5, respectively. I know my man Kollman doesn’t get the Franklin love, but it isn’t just me. Anyway, the chart won’t copy and paste here, so use the Reddit link to go check it out.

 

[dabears70]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1aywmu4
He has Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas, jr. at 4&5, respectively. I know my man Kollman doesn’t get the Franklin love, but it isn’t just me. Anyway, the chart won’t copy and paste here, so use the Reddit link to go check it out.

Everything i've seen has in some order B.Thomas, K.Coleman and T.Franklin 4, 5 and 6 in the WR rankings so don't see anything shocking here.

 

[dentfan]

Everything i've seen has in some order B.Thomas, K.Coleman and T.Franklin 4, 5 and 6 in the WR rankings so don't see anything shocking here.

For the Bears, I like BTJr more than Odunze, but it is apparent that the rankings are crystallizing. He also has 7 WRs going in round 1, plus 1 to 8 with Troy Franklin. I can seriously see this happening.

1.1 da haul & MHJ
9 trade back
13 Fashanu
The second round pick could be a swing for Malachi Corley or some other dynamic YAC monster.

 

[DanielCCSBears]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1aywmu4
He has Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas, jr. at 4&5, respectively. I know my man Kollman doesn’t get the Franklin love, but it isn’t just me. Anyway, the chart won’t copy and paste here, so use the Reddit link to go check it out.

The deeper the talent at WR in this draft the better for the Bears.

 

[dentfan]

The deeper the talent at WR in this draft the better for the Bears.

Yup. The goal is one of either Nabers or MHJ. Damn. Knowing Poles throws shit against the wall, wouldn’t be surprised to see him draft 2-3 WRs this year — actually, 2-3 pass catchers: including a TE.

But yeah, being able to get draft picks, a possible first next year, and at least one WR that comps to the best prospects ever? Count me in!

 

[greg23]

Yup. The goal is one of either Nabers or MHJ. Damn. Knowing Poles throws shit against the wall, wouldn’t be surprised to see him draft 2-3 WRs this year — actually, 2-3 pass catchers: including a TE.

But yeah, being able to get draft picks, a possible first next year, and at least one WR that comps to the best prospects ever? Count me in!

What good are multiple wr if you still have rb1 who continues to hold the ball then rake off running

 

[dentfan]

What good are multiple wr if you still have rb1 who continues to hold the ball then rake off running

Wait? We have a running back that runs the ball? You’re confused. The number 1 running back is supposed to run. It’s their job. I’m thinking you’re confused because ole RoJo played QB before he transitioned to rb. It’s all good.

 

[Bearly]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1aywmu4
He has Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas, jr. at 4&5, respectively. I know my man Kollman doesn’t get the Franklin love, but it isn’t just me. Anyway, the chart won’t copy and paste here, so use the Reddit link to go check it out.

Thought I'd do it for you without formatting but good enough.

Ovr Prospect Ranking Draft Classt Ranking Player Projected Rnd* Draft Year Prospect Score_Overall Fantasy Prospect Score Production Score Efficiency Score Film Score Deep Threat Score YAC Score Multi-Threat Score
2 1 Marvin Harrison Jr. 1 2024 8.43 9.27 6.46 8.77 9.00 8.28 4.43 7.946180186
5 2 Malik Nabers 1 2024 8.03 8.95 6.55 7.59 8.66 6.85 7.32 8.853980647
10 3 Rome Odunze 1 2024 7.61 8.59 7.11 6.80 8.39 7.44 5.40 8.029455376
19 4 Troy Franklin 2 2024 7.68 7.92 5.68 8.18 8.34 7.51 5.33 8.023050848
22 5 Brian Thomas Jr. 1 2024 7.03 7.87 4.80 7.71 7.07 7.38 5.36 7.964473422
32 6 Keon Coleman 1 2024 6.75 7.56 4.58 6.48 7.45 6.39 4.85 7.028802264
41 7 Adonai Mitchell 1 2024 6.50 7.31 3.76 6.54 7.08 8.89 2.65 7.212847533
44 8 Ladd McConkey 1 2024 6.34 7.21 3.83 7.78 7.60 6.03 6.46 7.809142493
50 9 Roman Wilson 2 2024 6.91 7.07 3.71 7.85 8.30 7.76 4.25 7.502643005
55 10 Malachi Corley 3 2024 7.23 6.98 6.88 6.67 8.04 2.97 9.69 7.913131284
65 11 Zakhari Franklin 5 2024 7.34 6.70 7.24 7.12 7.87 6.28 5.86 7.586968048
66 12 Devontez Walker 2 2024 6.48 6.69 5.10 7.48 7.40 8.88 3.67 7.845032891
68 13 Jacob Cowing 4 2024 7.03 6.68 7.85 6.62 8.45 6.05 7.13 8.236275313
76 14 Jermaine Burton 2 2024 6.27 6.47 4.55 7.06 7.63 9.66 3.41 8.167255289
80 15 Xavier Worthy 2 2024 6.43 6.36 6.38 6.06 7.66 5.11 7.09 7.622597828
89 16 Joshua Cephus 5 2024 6.88 6.21 6.41 6.16 8.17 4.76 7.73 7.802977158
86 17 Xavier Legette 3 2024 6.10 6.12 3.41 5.18 8.47 7.24 4.99 7.644311946
94 18 Luke McCaffrey 5 2024 6.74 6.08 5.89 6.05 8.04 6.16 5.38 7.213391151
95 19 De'Corian Clark 5 2024 6.59 6.03 3.83 6.93 8.27 7.37 4.94 7.6935305
96 20 Ja'Lynn Polk 2 2024 5.90 5.98 4.77 6.15 7.12 7.58 4.89 7.796859618
97 21 Brenden Rice 4 2024 6.28 5.97 4.08 7.11 7.70 7.10 5.59 7.927421447
98 22 Johnny Wilson 3 2024 6.19 5.95 4.02 5.91 8.05 8.08 4.89 8.109179096
99 23 Javon Baker 4 2024 6.26 5.95 4.22 6.58 8.07 8.19 4.86 8.15842436
100 24 Jamari Thrash 4 2024 6.23 5.93 4.89 6.74 7.83 6.76 6.51 8.296580843
103 25 Jalen McMillan 3 2024 6.03 5.85 4.98 5.97 7.50 5.92 5.74 7.28447236
105 26 Ricky Pearsall 3 2024 6.08 5.82 4.11 5.86 7.73 7.26 4.83 7.558901124
106 27 Ainias Smith 4 2024 6.23 5.75 4.71 5.97 7.60 5.84 6.77 7.881687446
111 28 Malik Washington 4 2024 6.00 5.66 4.94 5.28 8.41 5.14 7.38 7.822422318
116 29 Tahj Washington 5 2024 6.05 5.50 5.60 6.19 7.82 6.03 7.62 8.529610754
121 30 Isaiah Williams 6 2024 6.01 5.30 5.50 5.93 7.84 3.41 8.46 7.4194287
128 31 Bryson Nesbit 7 2024 6.04 5.13 3.25 6.41 7.70 7.24 3.85 6.929761331
131 32 Moose Muhammad III 7 2024 5.95 5.03 3.09 6.57 7.39 7.14 5.28 7.764215988
135 33 Dominic Lovett 7 2024 5.80 4.85 3.45 5.71 8.11 4.53 5.80 6.453834781
137 34 Jordan Whittington 5 2024 5.43 4.71 3.45 5.44 6.85 4.83 7.06 7.433346069
138 35 Cornelius Johnson 6 2024 5.49 4.63 3.36 5.68 6.83 7.64 4.27 7.441811974
139 36 Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 5 2024 5.26 4.61 2.01 5.64 7.26 7.66 3.15 6.754577396
140 37 Bru McCoy 7 2024 5.44 4.43 3.60 5.59 6.64 6.18 5.01 6.991023316
141 38 Anthony Gould 6 2024 5.27 4.42 2.78 5.82 7.35 8.33 3.20 7.201524258
146 39 Lideatrick Griffin 7 2024 5.20 4.17 3.22 5.29 7.01 3.62 7.58 6.997859857
148 40 Casey Washington 7 2024 4.61 3.53 2.50 3.86 6.90 7.17 3.23 6.501721552
150 41 Trey Knox 7 2024 4.16 3.07 1.56 3.54 6.67 6.77 2.79 5.976309524

As prospects, I prefer Nabers to Odunze but for the Bear needs Odunze is a better fit. May work in out favor if he lasts until 9. Nabers should be gone.

 

[monkforasia]

Everything i've seen has in some order B.Thomas, K.Coleman and T.Franklin 4, 5 and 6 in the WR rankings so don't see anything shocking here.

Would not be opposed to trading down from 9. Then taking Brian Thomas and jpj with either the extra first from Justin of trading the 2nd to move up.

 

[dentfan]

Thought I'd do it for you without formatting but good enough.

Ovr Prospect Ranking Draft Classt Ranking Player Projected Rnd* Draft Year Prospect Score_Overall Fantasy Prospect Score Production Score Efficiency Score Film Score Deep Threat Score YAC Score Multi-Threat Score
2 1 Marvin Harrison Jr. 1 2024 8.43 9.27 6.46 8.77 9.00 8.28 4.43 7.946180186
5 2 Malik Nabers 1 2024 8.03 8.95 6.55 7.59 8.66 6.85 7.32 8.853980647
10 3 Rome Odunze 1 2024 7.61 8.59 7.11 6.80 8.39 7.44 5.40 8.029455376
19 4 Troy Franklin 2 2024 7.68 7.92 5.68 8.18 8.34 7.51 5.33 8.023050848
22 5 Brian Thomas Jr. 1 2024 7.03 7.87 4.80 7.71 7.07 7.38 5.36 7.964473422
32 6 Keon Coleman 1 2024 6.75 7.56 4.58 6.48 7.45 6.39 4.85 7.028802264
41 7 Adonai Mitchell 1 2024 6.50 7.31 3.76 6.54 7.08 8.89 2.65 7.212847533
44 8 Ladd McConkey 1 2024 6.34 7.21 3.83 7.78 7.60 6.03 6.46 7.809142493
50 9 Roman Wilson 2 2024 6.91 7.07 3.71 7.85 8.30 7.76 4.25 7.502643005
55 10 Malachi Corley 3 2024 7.23 6.98 6.88 6.67 8.04 2.97 9.69 7.913131284
65 11 Zakhari Franklin 5 2024 7.34 6.70 7.24 7.12 7.87 6.28 5.86 7.586968048
66 12 Devontez Walker 2 2024 6.48 6.69 5.10 7.48 7.40 8.88 3.67 7.845032891
68 13 Jacob Cowing 4 2024 7.03 6.68 7.85 6.62 8.45 6.05 7.13 8.236275313
76 14 Jermaine Burton 2 2024 6.27 6.47 4.55 7.06 7.63 9.66 3.41 8.167255289
80 15 Xavier Worthy 2 2024 6.43 6.36 6.38 6.06 7.66 5.11 7.09 7.622597828
89 16 Joshua Cephus 5 2024 6.88 6.21 6.41 6.16 8.17 4.76 7.73 7.802977158
86 17 Xavier Legette 3 2024 6.10 6.12 3.41 5.18 8.47 7.24 4.99 7.644311946
94 18 Luke McCaffrey 5 2024 6.74 6.08 5.89 6.05 8.04 6.16 5.38 7.213391151
95 19 De'Corian Clark 5 2024 6.59 6.03 3.83 6.93 8.27 7.37 4.94 7.6935305
96 20 Ja'Lynn Polk 2 2024 5.90 5.98 4.77 6.15 7.12 7.58 4.89 7.796859618
97 21 Brenden Rice 4 2024 6.28 5.97 4.08 7.11 7.70 7.10 5.59 7.927421447
98 22 Johnny Wilson 3 2024 6.19 5.95 4.02 5.91 8.05 8.08 4.89 8.109179096
99 23 Javon Baker 4 2024 6.26 5.95 4.22 6.58 8.07 8.19 4.86 8.15842436
100 24 Jamari Thrash 4 2024 6.23 5.93 4.89 6.74 7.83 6.76 6.51 8.296580843
103 25 Jalen McMillan 3 2024 6.03 5.85 4.98 5.97 7.50 5.92 5.74 7.28447236
105 26 Ricky Pearsall 3 2024 6.08 5.82 4.11 5.86 7.73 7.26 4.83 7.558901124
106 27 Ainias Smith 4 2024 6.23 5.75 4.71 5.97 7.60 5.84 6.77 7.881687446
111 28 Malik Washington 4 2024 6.00 5.66 4.94 5.28 8.41 5.14 7.38 7.822422318
116 29 Tahj Washington 5 2024 6.05 5.50 5.60 6.19 7.82 6.03 7.62 8.529610754
121 30 Isaiah Williams 6 2024 6.01 5.30 5.50 5.93 7.84 3.41 8.46 7.4194287
128 31 Bryson Nesbit 7 2024 6.04 5.13 3.25 6.41 7.70 7.24 3.85 6.929761331
131 32 Moose Muhammad III 7 2024 5.95 5.03 3.09 6.57 7.39 7.14 5.28 7.764215988
135 33 Dominic Lovett 7 2024 5.80 4.85 3.45 5.71 8.11 4.53 5.80 6.453834781
137 34 Jordan Whittington 5 2024 5.43 4.71 3.45 5.44 6.85 4.83 7.06 7.433346069
138 35 Cornelius Johnson 6 2024 5.49 4.63 3.36 5.68 6.83 7.64 4.27 7.441811974
139 36 Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 5 2024 5.26 4.61 2.01 5.64 7.26 7.66 3.15 6.754577396
140 37 Bru McCoy 7 2024 5.44 4.43 3.60 5.59 6.64 6.18 5.01 6.991023316
141 38 Anthony Gould 6 2024 5.27 4.42 2.78 5.82 7.35 8.33 3.20 7.201524258
146 39 Lideatrick Griffin 7 2024 5.20 4.17 3.22 5.29 7.01 3.62 7.58 6.997859857
148 40 Casey Washington 7 2024 4.61 3.53 2.50 3.86 6.90 7.17 3.23 6.501721552
150 41 Trey Knox 7 2024 4.16 3.07 1.56 3.54 6.67 6.77 2.79 5.976309524

As prospects, I prefer Nabers to Odunze but for the Bear needs Odunze is a better fit. May work in out favor if he lasts until 9. Nabers should be gone.

Im not sure why you see Odinze as better for the Bears. His lack of strength is disconcerting. He’s sleek and all, but can get jammed at the line. I’m not sure if he can be the X necessary in this O. I’m curious, not antagonistic.

 

[Bearly]

Im not sure why you see Odinze as better for the Bears. His lack of strength is disconcerting. He’s sleek and all, but can get jammed at the line. I’m not sure if he can be the X necessary in this O. I’m curious, not antagonistic.

We need a bigger guy for a throw it up contested catch and red zone guy. Nabers and DJ are both likely under 6'. Like I said, it won't matter since Nabers is better overall and will be gone by 9. If he dropped, I'll settle, LOL. If I'm drafting without consideration of fit, I take Nabers and may anyway of he drops but I'd be very happy if Odunze is still on the board since both could easily be gone.

I suspect Poles feels that way as well and why he rolled the dice on Claypool. I guess that there's always Bowers as he's likely available for that roll but I think 9 is a little early and we need an another outside guy more.

 

[dentfan]

We need a bigger guy for a throw it up contested catch and red zone guy. Nabers and DJ are both likely under 6'. Like I said, it won't matter since Nabers is better overall and will be gone by 9. If he dropped, I'll settle, LOL. If I'm drafting without consideration of fit, I take Nabers and may anyway of he drops but I'd be very happy if Odunze is still on the board since both could easily be gone.

I get it, you’re seeing as Odunze as 3. I’m thinking it is between Brian Thomas, Jr. but Odunze is a very good and smooth prospect.

 

[remydat]

We need a bigger guy for a throw it up contested catch and red zone guy. Nabers and DJ are both likely under 6'. Like I said, it won't matter since Nabers is better overall and will be gone by 9. If he dropped, I'll settle, LOL. If I'm drafting without consideration of fit, I take Nabers and may anyway of he drops but I'd be very happy if Odunze is still on the board since both could easily be gone.

I suspect Poles feels that way as well and why he rolled the dice on Claypool. I guess that there's always Bowers as he's likely available for that roll but I think 9 is a little early and we need an another outside guy more.

Bowers can line up outside as well IMO. If Bears draft him I probably have him play in the 230 range given Kmet will be doing most of the inline blocking.

 

[Bearly]

Bowers can line up outside as well IMO. If Bears draft him I probably have him play in the 230 range given Kmet will be doing most of the inline blocking.

Why I brought him up. He could got that early but I'd feel better about drafting him nearer the middle of the round.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1aywmu4
He has Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas, jr. at 4&5, respectively. I know my man Kollman doesn’t get the Franklin love, but it isn’t just me. Anyway, the chart won’t copy and paste here, so use the Reddit link to go check it out.

Franklin is going to be an outstanding pro.

 

[ZOMBIE@CTESPN]

We need a bigger guy for a throw it up contested catch and red zone guy. Nabers and DJ are both likely under 6'. Like I said, it won't matter since Nabers is better overall and will be gone by 9. If he dropped, I'll settle, LOL. If I'm drafting without consideration of fit, I take Nabers and may anyway of he drops but I'd be very happy if Odunze is still on the board since both could easily be gone.

I suspect Poles feels that way as well and why he rolled the dice on Claypool. I guess that there's always Bowers as he's likely available for that roll but I think 9 is a little early and we need an another outside guy more.

Not much thinking going on when they traded for claypool. Much more likely a cte induced move

 

[TexasBearfan]

kollman has a WR section it's pretty good IMO