I’ve now evaluated USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams in every snap he took in 2022 and 2023 and I’ve written approximately 11,850 words reflecting on him in articles.
The takeaway: Williams is too undisciplined, moody, and immature to ever realize his potential.
Yes, he is loaded with God-given raw arm strength, and elite ability to create and extend (which is the draw to him), but
he’s underdeveloped in the finer points of the position. His skillset doesn’t translate well to the next level ⎯the NFL game is about quick time to throw, precise downfield ball placement, and ball security.
The only box he checks is ball security improving from 35 pass breakups (2.5 avg.) in 2022 to 15 in 2023 (1.25 avg.).
2023 went sideways
Williams won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, but it amounted to a second-round grade watching him through my ‘NFL-colored glasses.’ He tended to hold the ball too long and to lock in with receivers.
The first three games of 2023 (
San Jose State,
Nevada, and
Stanford) gave me optimism he had improved,
but then ASU happened. He was excellent against
Colorado but mediocre against the
University of Arizona.
And then things went off the rails.
The true litmus test would be against
ranked competition.
What happened?
USC faced
Notre Dame,
Utah,
CAL,
Washington,
Oregon, and
UCLA and dropped five out of six and Williams’ became unglued.
Concerns
1. Downward trajectory ⎯Williams regressed in 2023.
2. NFL Expectations ⎯
will be crazy high. The expectations alone will cause him to be a bust.
3. Time to throw ⎯
Pro Football Focus recorded Williams at 3.44 seconds in 2022 and 3.21 seconds in 2023. Williams was sacked 63 times (2022-2023). Only seven NFL QBs are over 3 seconds (NEXT GEN STATS). Bears’ QB Justin Fields was the slowest (
3.23 seconds). Fields was sacked 99 times (2022-2023).
4. Glorifed system QB ⎯I did an independent study this season, Williams’ best completion percentages came throwing 44-62% short passes. His three worst games (55.9%-57.5%) were fewer short passes.
5. Not a big game QB ⎯Williams was 2-9 against ranked teams the past two seasons.
6. Fumbles ⎯
32 fumbles in 36 games.
7. Post-game conduct ⎯
refused to shake hands with Utah and
refused to talk to reporters after the UCLA loss.
8. Nature ⎯Wants to get out of structure as a passer and get reckless as a runner (increased injury risk). He reverts to locking in with receivers. Additionally,
he talked down about a fan calling him a “sheep,” and he does unpredictable and uncensored things ranging from
painting obscenities on his fingernails to jumping into the stands and crying in his mother’s arms.
9. Inexperienced dealing with adversity ⎯According to
Sports Illustrated (Nov. 28, 2023) Williams said, “I’ve never been in this situation, where I’m 7–5 and there are no playoff hopes at the end of the season. I’m dealing with it emotionally, dealing with it spiritually and physically. ”
10. Holiday Bowl ⎯USC bounced right back (same offensive line and defense) against No. 15 Louisville with QB Miller Moss who was making his first career start and he matched Williams’ USC high of six touchdown passes in a game.
#13 Caleb Williams 6-foot-1, 215 pounds
Daniel Kelly’s 2024 NFL Draft Grade: Fourth-Round (I wouldn’t select him)
2024 NFL Draft: QB7
Ceiling: Bottom tier ranked starter (17-32)
Projected by 99.3% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of January 10, 2024 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)
How Does Caleb Williams’ Game Film Translate to the NFL? (7 games evaluated in 2022)
Pump the Brakes on Caleb Williams (7 games evaluated in 2022)
Game film reviewed (2023): SJSU, Nevada, Stanford, ASU, Colorado, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, CAL, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)
2023 passing stats: 266 of 388 (68.6%) for 3,633 yards, 30 TD and 5 interceptions
Note: 289 career rushing attempts.
NFL comp: Zach Wilson
2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report
Gifted prima donna playground QB with the will to win. Needs a strong personality head coach, offensive coordinator, and QB coach working in concert. Leads with inconsistent rhythm and tempo. Inconsistent footwork affects timing routes and ball placement. Instinctual. Elite pocket escape and improvisation. Best throwing short-range. Inconsistent intermediate⎯deep. Always looking for the big play while missing open underneath receivers. Pass rush affected him (Oregon). Nifty runner.
Final words
Williams is an elite athlete, but there’s nothing ‘generational’ about him as a passer.
It’s important to be able to separate the two.
firstroundmock.com
