Found on Reddit, Trubisky throws, Warning-strong kool-aid

Mjiton

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Did not read the comments on the gifs just watched them. Some of those throws are exactly why I wanted Mitch drafted. And why I think he can grow into a top ten QB.
Hopefully with a good offense and some actual NFL level receivers he will make those strides. Greatly looking forward to this season.
 

Toast88

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Can you share with CSS members and let them all know exactly what drugs your on?

They're called stats and facts.

Trubisky and Keenum were the only two quarterbacks in the league with a 100 percent rate of catchable balls to receivers when in a clean pocket.

Trubisky is also the third most-accurate quarterback at throwing to covered receivers.
 

bearsfootball516

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i saw this the day it was posted(linked to my homepage, otherwise id never see anything from twitter) and i though about posting it but figured someone would have it covered shortly.

only took long enough for me to forgot about it.


and those howard drops... how can someone who has played football for so long have that shitty of hands? RB or not. lol

For once, I'm okay with Howard and his brick hands. If he catches that pass against Atlanta, we win the game and are probably picking 12th or something and miss out on a player like Nelson.
 

Hawkeye OG

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He’s already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in throwing to covered receivers.

He’s already one of the best quarterbacks in the league when throwing from a clean pocket.

That’s scary.

His 59% Completion % would say otherwise buddy.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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Stats don't lie. He's tied for first in one, and is third in the other.

Stats lie all the time. eg "99% accurate" could lead to a conclusion that is either true or meaningless.

Specifically you claim:

"Trubisky and Keenum were the only two quarterbacks in the league with a 100 percent rate of catchable balls to receivers when in a clean pocket.

Trubisky is also the third most-accurate quarterback at throwing to covered receivers."

Many here will call for your source. Also, many will question what is "catchable", who determines that? What is a "clean pocket"? Who determines that? What is a "covered receiver"? Who determines that?

Often, when challenged people get defensive and cry "Do you honestly believe [insert source] skewed it to favor Trubisky? It isn't like [insert source] are Bears fans!"

What will be lost in the pages of erudite debate and witty retorts, will be the fact that these claims are dubious due to:

1) semantics and language used to define the measured parameters in comparison with other QBs.
2) an innate instinct that stats are particulary vulnerable to what is called the base-rate fallacy.

BASE-RATE FALLACY:

THOUGHT EXPERIMENT FOR FUN: Suppose that the rate of highly thanked posts (call it 7 or more thanks) is three times higher among Masters' degree holders than among non-Masters' degrees, that is, the percentage of masters who have HT (highly thanked by a scalar of 7 or more) is three times the percentage of non-masters who have HT. Suppose, further, that Pat is one of the highest percentage of HT, and this is all that you know about Pat. In particular, you don't know anything else about Pat at all; in fact, you don't even know whether Pat is male or female. (Insert SNL gif here lol) What is the likelihood that Pat has a masters?

ANSWER:

If you're like most people, you probably estimated that the likelihood that Pat has a masters is pretty high - much higher than 25%. Most would reason it to be 75%, probably basing their estimate on the fact that the rate of HT is three times higher among masters degree holders.

The exact answer to this problem depends upon what percentage of the CCS has masters. We don't know that exactly, but let's suppose that it is 10%. We don't need to be precise since this is a "back of the envelope" calculation designed to check that our intuitive judgments are "in the ballpark". So, suppose hypothetically that we have a population of 100 people, 10 of whom are masters. Suppose, further, that three of the masters have HT, which means that the rate of HT among the masters is 3 out of 10, or 30%. Since we are given that the rate of HT among non-masters is one-third of that among masters, we must suppose that 10% of the non-masters in the population have HT, which means that 9 of the 90 non-masters have HT. So, the total number of persons with HT in our hypothetical population is 12, three of whom are masters. Thus, all that we know about Pat is that he or she has HT, so Pat is one of the witty twelve. Therefore, the chance that Pat has a masters is 3 in 12, or 25%.

From your post it seems neither you nor I know what a "catchable ball" is, what a "covered receiver" is, what a "clean pocket" is, and no one anywhere knows the number of catchable balls for all QBs in all passing plays vs. non-catachable balls caught by amazing athleticism, number of all covered receivers for all QBs in all passing plays vs. covered receivers not thrown to because others were open, and I doubt that anyone knows the rate of completion given these poorly defined terms among all QBs in comparison with everyone else. (Who had the most number of clean pockets? Who had the least/highest amount of covered receivers? Did Trubisky throw the most amount of completions to covered receivers in total? Or the least amount? Middle? Where? etc)

TL;DR - Stats lie all the time when gathered sloppily or interpreted wrongly. I suspect that the stats you gave here are not lying so much as meaningless and not giving a full picture.

Cheers.
 

Toast88

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Stats lie all the time. eg "99% accurate" could lead to a conclusion that is either true or meaningless.

Specifically you claim:

"Trubisky and Keenum were the only two quarterbacks in the league with a 100 percent rate of catchable balls to receivers when in a clean pocket.

Trubisky is also the third most-accurate quarterback at throwing to covered receivers."

Many here will call for your source. Also, many will question what is "catchable", who determines that? What is a "clean pocket"? Who determines that? What is a "covered receiver"? Who determines that?

Often, when challenged people get defensive and cry "Do you honestly believe [insert source] skewed it to favor Trubisky? It isn't like [insert source] are Bears fans!"

What will be lost in the pages of erudite debate and witty retorts, will be the fact that these claims are dubious due to:

1) semantics and language used to define the measured parameters in comparison with other QBs.
2) an innate instinct that stats are particulary vulnerable to what is called the base-rate fallacy.

BASE-RATE FALLACY:

THOUGHT EXPERIMENT FOR FUN: Suppose that the rate of highly thanked posts (call it 7 or more thanks) is three times higher among Masters' degree holders than among non-Masters' degrees, that is, the percentage of masters who have HT (highly thanked by a scalar of 7 or more) is three times the percentage of non-masters who have HT. Suppose, further, that Pat is one of the highest percentage of HT, and this is all that you know about Pat. In particular, you don't know anything else about Pat at all; in fact, you don't even know whether Pat is male or female. (Insert SNL gif here lol) What is the likelihood that Pat has a masters?

ANSWER:

If you're like most people, you probably estimated that the likelihood that Pat has a masters is pretty high - much higher than 25%. Most would reason it to be 75%, probably basing their estimate on the fact that the rate of HT is three times higher among masters degree holders.

The exact answer to this problem depends upon what percentage of the CCS has masters. We don't know that exactly, but let's suppose that it is 10%. We don't need to be precise since this is a "back of the envelope" calculation designed to check that our intuitive judgments are "in the ballpark". So, suppose hypothetically that we have a population of 100 people, 10 of whom are masters. Suppose, further, that three of the masters have HT, which means that the rate of HT among the masters is 3 out of 10, or 30%. Since we are given that the rate of HT among non-masters is one-third of that among masters, we must suppose that 10% of the non-masters in the population have HT, which means that 9 of the 90 non-masters have HT. So, the total number of persons with HT in our hypothetical population is 12, three of whom are masters. Thus, all that we know about Pat is that he or she has HT, so Pat is one of the witty twelve. Therefore, the chance that Pat has a masters is 3 in 12, or 25%.

From your post it seems neither you nor I know what a "catchable ball" is, what a "covered receiver" is, what a "clean pocket" is, and no one anywhere knows the number of catchable balls for all QBs in all passing plays vs. non-catachable balls caught by amazing athleticism, number of all covered receivers for all QBs in all passing plays vs. covered receivers not thrown to because others were open, and I doubt that anyone knows the rate of completion given these poorly defined terms among all QBs in comparison with everyone else. (Who had the most number of clean pockets? Who had the least/highest amount of covered receivers? Did Trubisky throw the most amount of completions to covered receivers in total? Or the least amount? Middle? Where? etc)

TL;DR - Stats lie all the time when gathered sloppily or interpreted wrongly. I suspect that the stats you gave here are not lying so much as meaningless and not giving a full picture.

Cheers.

I never said he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league, just that he was among the best in these two particular areas. This was to help support his tremendous promise, not necessarily say he’s among the overall best QBs yet. I think this is completely reasonable. If you disagree, you’re free to discard my post as misleading or false. That’s fine.

Sure, judging a receiver as covered or judging what is a catchable ball are subjective. But when it’s someone judging all the players with the same measuring stick, picking out the best and worst night actually mean something, like that a young QB at the top of the list has tremendous promise. I don’t have time to go spot-check all their metrics. If you do, congratulations. We accept advanced stats as seeming reasonable or unreasonable all the time.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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I never said he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league, just that he was among the best in these two particular areas. This was to help support his tremendous promise, not necessarily say he’s among the overall best QBs yet. I think this is completely reasonable. If you disagree, you’re free to discard my post as misleading or false. That’s fine.

Since there is no source or support or definitions or comparative analytics beyond simple categorizing, I would have no choice at this point.

Sure, judging a receiver as covered or judging what is a catchable ball are subjective. But when it’s someone judging all the players with the same measuring stick, picking out the best and worst night actually mean something, like that a young QB at the top of the list has tremendous promise. I don’t have time to go spot-check all their metrics. If you do, congratulations. We accept advanced stats as seeming reasonable or unreasonable all the time.

^ The bolded. This. Since it's subjective, then it is prone to fallacy. But that is not supposed to be something we all just accept. It is not even inherently true about all statistical methods. To eliminate subjectivity, the stats must have certain criteria like: transparency, multi-source consensus, impartiality, and mostly a direct correspondence to observable reality.

Your detractors before me knee-jerked a bit due to the lack of a correspondence to observable reality. My whole endeavor here was to explain why. No flaming or drama, just an fyi.

With that said, I hope Trubisky puts it together and tears the NFL up sooner rather than later. Go Bears! :beer:
 

Toast88

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In the interest of transparency, here’s what I was working with. It’s fine if you think they fucked up the evaluation. But I think it at least shows he has tremendous upside.

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-b...Ls-best-from-a-clean-pocket-in-2017-111895046


That link mentions the clean pocket stat. It also mentions Trubisky as the overall fifth most accurate passer. Can’t readily find the stat about him being third in covered receivers. I’ll add it if I find it. We all consume a ton of the same stuff. I kind of assumed you guys heard the same stuff.
 

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Stats lie all the time. eg "99% accurate" could lead to a conclusion that is either true or meaningless.

Specifically you claim:

"Trubisky and Keenum were the only two quarterbacks in the league with a 100 percent rate of catchable balls to receivers when in a clean pocket.

Trubisky is also the third most-accurate quarterback at throwing to covered receivers."

Many here will call for your source. Also, many will question what is "catchable", who determines that? What is a "clean pocket"? Who determines that? What is a "covered receiver"? Who determines that?

Often, when challenged people get defensive and cry "Do you honestly believe [insert source] skewed it to favor Trubisky? It isn't like [insert source] are Bears fans!"

What will be lost in the pages of erudite debate and witty retorts, will be the fact that these claims are dubious due to:

1) semantics and language used to define the measured parameters in comparison with other QBs.
2) an innate instinct that stats are particulary vulnerable to what is called the base-rate fallacy.

BASE-RATE FALLACY:

THOUGHT EXPERIMENT FOR FUN: Suppose that the rate of highly thanked posts (call it 7 or more thanks) is three times higher among Masters' degree holders than among non-Masters' degrees, that is, the percentage of masters who have HT (highly thanked by a scalar of 7 or more) is three times the percentage of non-masters who have HT. Suppose, further, that Pat is one of the highest percentage of HT, and this is all that you know about Pat. In particular, you don't know anything else about Pat at all; in fact, you don't even know whether Pat is male or female. (Insert SNL gif here lol) What is the likelihood that Pat has a masters?

ANSWER:

If you're like most people, you probably estimated that the likelihood that Pat has a masters is pretty high - much higher than 25%. Most would reason it to be 75%, probably basing their estimate on the fact that the rate of HT is three times higher among masters degree holders.

The exact answer to this problem depends upon what percentage of the CCS has masters. We don't know that exactly, but let's suppose that it is 10%. We don't need to be precise since this is a "back of the envelope" calculation designed to check that our intuitive judgments are "in the ballpark". So, suppose hypothetically that we have a population of 100 people, 10 of whom are masters. Suppose, further, that three of the masters have HT, which means that the rate of HT among the masters is 3 out of 10, or 30%. Since we are given that the rate of HT among non-masters is one-third of that among masters, we must suppose that 10% of the non-masters in the population have HT, which means that 9 of the 90 non-masters have HT. So, the total number of persons with HT in our hypothetical population is 12, three of whom are masters. Thus, all that we know about Pat is that he or she has HT, so Pat is one of the witty twelve. Therefore, the chance that Pat has a masters is 3 in 12, or 25%.

From your post it seems neither you nor I know what a "catchable ball" is, what a "covered receiver" is, what a "clean pocket" is, and no one anywhere knows the number of catchable balls for all QBs in all passing plays vs. non-catachable balls caught by amazing athleticism, number of all covered receivers for all QBs in all passing plays vs. covered receivers not thrown to because others were open, and I doubt that anyone knows the rate of completion given these poorly defined terms among all QBs in comparison with everyone else. (Who had the most number of clean pockets? Who had the least/highest amount of covered receivers? Did Trubisky throw the most amount of completions to covered receivers in total? Or the least amount? Middle? Where? etc)

TL;DR - Stats lie all the time when gathered sloppily or interpreted wrongly. I suspect that the stats you gave here are not lying so much as meaningless and not giving a full picture.

Cheers.

I've never seen so many words used to say absofuckinlutely nothing. Congrats. You just beat Remy at his own game.
 

gwharris2254

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They're called stats and facts.

Trubisky and Keenum were the only two quarterbacks in the league with a 100 percent rate of catchable balls to receivers when in a clean pocket.

Trubisky is also the third most-accurate quarterback at throwing to covered receivers.

If Nagy schemes the receivers their seperation as he has the last couple of years leading the NFL and or near the top, we may see something special with this O in 2018. You know the Nagy version HAS TO BE at least a grade better than Loggains
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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I've never seen so many words used to say absofuckinlutely nothing. Congrats. You just beat Remy at his own game.

Oh I said plenty and it was directly on topic. Remy's game is to get into a debate and keep changing the parameters of the entire discussion whenever he encounters difficulty. I like the guy but the vortex exists lol.
 
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Outlaw Josey Cutler

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In the interest of transparency, here’s what I was working with. It’s fine if you think they fucked up the evaluation. But I think it at least shows he has tremendous upside.

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-b...Ls-best-from-a-clean-pocket-in-2017-111895046


That link mentions the clean pocket stat. It also mentions Trubisky as the overall fifth most accurate passer. Can’t readily find the stat about him being third in covered receivers. I’ll add it if I find it. We all consume a ton of the same stuff. I kind of assumed you guys heard the same stuff.

Thanks for the link. I'll check it out and get back to you with my honest thoughts.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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From the article: "Trubisky's accuracy has been questioned in recent weeks and a lot of that has to do with the pressure he has been facing."

This strikes me as "no duh". Any QB accuracy goes down as pressure goes up. Call it a law of conservation of the trenches lol. The truly great ones that have it in them to break this law do so at the most crucial moments to the everlasting envy and hatred of the opposition (Rodgers, Favre etc).

and: "Analyst John Kosko pointed out on Twitter earlier in the week that Trubisky is among the NFL's best from a clean pocket. Only he and Minnesota Vikings quarterback Case Keenum have registered a 100 percent in terms of aimed passes deemed catchable. That does not mean Trubisky has complete all of his passes from a clean pocket, rather all of his throws have been deemed catchable in those situations.

Four of his five touchdowns have come with a clean pocket, but so have three of his interceptions."

So 100% of his clean pocket passes which is 117/193 (from the article) are catchable but three of his four INTs have been from clean pockets. The article basically pins all struggles on WR and O-line. While that has some merit, that is definitely not the sole reason he struggled at times. But here is why the article fails: did the same guy "deem catachable vs. non-catchable" for all QBs in all passing plays. If so, then this is too subjective, it lacks multi-source consensus. If there are others judging catchable vs. not, then is there a comparative analysis between different judges using the same QBs to get rid of subjectivity? If not, then it it fails impartiality. And lastly, if there is no one in the room who stands up and says that Keenum got rattled under pressure more so than most but that he didn't face near the amount of pressure as most, then it fails a direct correspondence to observable reality.

My takeaway is that Trubisky works hard and has not really overall rattled yet. This is good and gives us hope. I wish I had Gamepass so I could re-visit his passes, but it strikes me as meaningless to deem passes catchable, and when someone says his completion percentage increased with a clean pocket, that doesn't mean a whole lot yet either. He can't make it very far in the NFL counting on clean pockets, that's just a fact. But I hold out hope that this new staff will have MUCH better plans for blitzes and for when a known weak link in the O-line inevitably crumples too fast and make Trubisky look better and start to feel even more confidence.

TL;DR: the article kinda makes some obvious points while also neglecting why passer rating reflects differently from their analysis lacking a big picture view of what it means. Trubisky does have hope for development into a real NFL caliber QB though.
 
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